Here's what looks to me like worst-case scenario this off-season, in terms of things the Celts can't control:
DRAFT
1. No trades for the Celts in the first round on draft day. All second rounders are used on draft-and-stash guys or traded for future considerations.
2. BRK pick falls to 5 or 6; Danny selects Jaylen Brown or Henry Ellenson -- a flawed prospect who is years away from contributing.
3. The #16 and #23 picks are used on more of the same ... guards and bigs with no obvious route to playing time (e.g. Tyler Ulis and Damion Jones)
TRADE
4. No other teams are willing to trade a top 20 player (e.g. Butler, Cousins, Love) for a package of draft picks and young role players.
FREE AGENCY
5. No free agents worthy of a max deal (e.g. Derozan, Horford, Dwight, Durant) wants to sign in Boston.
What that leaves us with as a "starting point" following the draft:
Guards - Thomas, Bradley, Smart, Rozier, [Ulis]
Wings - Crowder, Young, Hunter, [Brown]
Bigs - Amir, Jerebko, Olynyk, Mickey, [Jones]
Just to be clear, that's roughly seven guys you can actually count on to contribute in a regular rotation role (and seven spots taken up by guys who can't be counted on ... ugh).
If this happens, here are my priorities:
1. Don't re-sign Sullinger, Turner, or Zeller. They will be overpaid relative to their value to the Celts this off-season, and other than Zeller, I don't trust them on a long term deal in any case.
2. Trade for an interior presence.
- Tyson Chandler
- Marcin Gortat
- Greg Monroe
- Robin Lopez
- Jonas Valanciunas
- Jahlil Okafor / Nerlens Noel
One or more of these guys will be available via trade for a reasonable package. Try to get 'em without giving up Amir and we'd have the makings of a solid if unspectacular big rotation.
3. Sign one or two wings who provide shooting / scoring
- Luol Deng
- Jared Dudley
- Brandon Rush
- Mirza Teletovic
- Terrence Ross
- Harrison Barnes
Make those moves, and you wouldn't have a contender. But you might have a team with the necessary weaponry to get past the 1st round, which is the next step for this team.
What would you want to do, given the "worst case" circumstances outlined above?