Author Topic: Potential Small Ball centers in this draft  (Read 1665 times)

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Potential Small Ball centers in this draft
« on: April 28, 2016, 05:20:01 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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With out putting a ton of time into it I wanted to take a look at this draft class to see if any players match the current mold for small ball centers. As the Celtics are experiencing in this series Paul Milsap at the 5 is a tough match-up his combination of solid mobility, length, serviceable outside shot, and rebounding ability create match-ups problems for defenses. The apex of this is the lineup the Warriors use With Green at Center. Currently on the Cs Mickey maybe able to grow into this role.

Looking at this draft class inside the lottery I think with time both Simmons and Bender will be able to play this type of role. Simmons is a clear fit as his body further develops, Bender will be a 5 not based on strength but length.

Outside the Early lottery is where players who may be worth a shot can be found

Henry Ellenson, has the skill set and the size however I dont know if he has the quickness to keep teams from matching him with a more traditional big


Nigel Hayes, perfect size and athletic profile at 6'8 235 and 7'3.5" wingspan. Has the needed perimeter skills but must be willing to bang inside and rebound 

Brice Johnson, he isn't the shooter that is ideal for the position but his elite rebounding and mobility to switch on D may find him in this role. If he is on the court in a small ball vs small ball situation with out your traditional 6'10+ big men he should dominate the glass even at the NBA level.

Caleb Swanigan, similar to Ellenson is that he has the size and skill set for the role but may lack the quickness. Unlike Ellenson who is a likely loto pick Swanigan if he stays in the draft will likely be a late 1st/early 2nd round pick. Physically he is a longer Sully same height similare weight but a 3' long wingspan. His weight was an issue in the past as he reported to have weighed 350lbs in 8th grade. Unlike Sully through a bizzare path then includes being adopted by an agent he seems to have really taken control of his body  http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2580780-homelessness-heartache-and-hoops-caleb-swanigans-rough-road-to-purdue


Looking at my list I think the Cs have a realistic shot at Hayes,Johnson and Swanigan given that all should be available at 22 and likely at 31. Given the likely activity (trades) at the top of the draft I think it would be a great move to secure one of these players and double down with Mickey on a potential small ball 5 of the future. 
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Re: Potential Small Ball centers in this draft
« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2016, 05:43:20 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Keep in mind that a "small ball" center doesn't necessarily mean a 'small center'.

The main thing with a small ball lineup is going with no more than one 'true big' and going instead with an extra wing or guard.

The point is typically to add additional scoring potential and to make up for what you lose in size on defense with increased speed.

Teams often implement small ball by simply pulling their center and sliding a PF into the 5 slot.

But you can play, "small ball" with a true big man at the 5 and sliding a "big 3" (like Lebron / Pierce / George) over to the 4..  In fact, it is helpful against matches where your opponent will try to break your small ball with size to have someone who can handle himself on his own against true bigs.   It is also helpful in small ball to have a good rebounder at the 5 who can start fast breaks.

One of our better 5-man lineups so far in the short sample of these playoffs has been Isaiah + Marcus + Evan + Jae + Amir.    We've used that a lot and it's resulted in a +6.5 points per 100 net rating.  Not quite as glamorous as the +16.8 that the same unit with Jonas in for Amir has posted, but the latter hasn't been used as much so take it with a grain of salt.

I would suggest that the most important qualities of a small ball center are (a) defensive versatility (ability to cover 5-4-3), (b) rebounding and (c) passing.

Things like 3PT shooting are extra nice gravy sauce, but not absolutely necessary -- it depends on how good your wings & guards are at shooting.   Obviously as we are currently constructed, with injuries and all, a 3PT shooting big would be nice.  But the draft should never be about what you need this instant because it ain't gonna help this instant.
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Re: Potential Small Ball centers in this draft
« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2016, 06:15:47 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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Keep in mind that a "small ball" center doesn't necessarily mean a 'small center'.

The main thing with a small ball lineup is going with no more than one 'true big' and going instead with an extra wing or guard.

The point is typically to add additional scoring potential and to make up for what you lose in size on defense with increased speed.

Teams often implement small ball by simply pulling their center and sliding a PF into the 5 slot.

But you can play, "small ball" with a true big man at the 5 and sliding a "big 3" (like Lebron / Pierce / George) over to the 4..  In fact, it is helpful against matches where your opponent will try to break your small ball with size to have someone who can handle himself on his own against true bigs.   It is also helpful in small ball to have a good rebounder at the 5 who can start fast breaks.

One of our better 5-man lineups so far in the short sample of these playoffs has been Isaiah + Marcus + Evan + Jae + Amir.    We've used that a lot and it's resulted in a +6.5 points per 100 net rating.  Not quite as glamorous as the +16.8 that the same unit with Jonas in for Amir has posted, but the latter hasn't been used as much so take it with a grain of salt.

I would suggest that the most important qualities of a small ball center are (a) defensive versatility (ability to cover 5-4-3), (b) rebounding and (c) passing.

Things like 3PT shooting are extra nice gravy sauce, but not absolutely necessary -- it depends on how good your wings & guards are at shooting.   Obviously as we are currently constructed, with injuries and all, a 3PT shooting big would be nice.  But the draft should never be about what you need this instant because it ain't gonna help this instant.
Those small ball lineups including I.T., Smart, Crowder, Turner and either Jerebko or Amir got absolutely destroyed in the 2nd quarter of game 5 and started the downfall.  They gave up points on 10 straight possessions giving up 24 points in total over 4:36.  Small ball in general has been nowhere near as effective for the Celtics as people think.  They have statistically always been better with 2 bigs on the floor. 

Re: Potential Small Ball centers in this draft
« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2016, 06:40:54 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Keep in mind that a "small ball" center doesn't necessarily mean a 'small center'.

The main thing with a small ball lineup is going with no more than one 'true big' and going instead with an extra wing or guard.

The point is typically to add additional scoring potential and to make up for what you lose in size on defense with increased speed.

Teams often implement small ball by simply pulling their center and sliding a PF into the 5 slot.

But you can play, "small ball" with a true big man at the 5 and sliding a "big 3" (like Lebron / Pierce / George) over to the 4..  In fact, it is helpful against matches where your opponent will try to break your small ball with size to have someone who can handle himself on his own against true bigs.   It is also helpful in small ball to have a good rebounder at the 5 who can start fast breaks.

One of our better 5-man lineups so far in the short sample of these playoffs has been Isaiah + Marcus + Evan + Jae + Amir.    We've used that a lot and it's resulted in a +6.5 points per 100 net rating.  Not quite as glamorous as the +16.8 that the same unit with Jonas in for Amir has posted, but the latter hasn't been used as much so take it with a grain of salt.

I would suggest that the most important qualities of a small ball center are (a) defensive versatility (ability to cover 5-4-3), (b) rebounding and (c) passing.

Things like 3PT shooting are extra nice gravy sauce, but not absolutely necessary -- it depends on how good your wings & guards are at shooting.   Obviously as we are currently constructed, with injuries and all, a 3PT shooting big would be nice.  But the draft should never be about what you need this instant because it ain't gonna help this instant.
Those small ball lineups including I.T., Smart, Crowder, Turner and either Jerebko or Amir got absolutely destroyed in the 2nd quarter of game 5 and started the downfall.  They gave up points on 10 straight possessions giving up 24 points in total over 4:36.  Small ball in general has been nowhere near as effective for the Celtics as people think.  They have statistically always been better with 2 bigs on the floor.

I tend to agree, though I will say that over the last two years, one of the more critical thresholds is having at least one "7 footer" on the floor.  Defensively, however bad one might think Zeller and/or Olynyk are, it's been a consistent fact that our lineups the last two seasons have performed MUCH better when they have at least one player who is 6' 10" or taller.   That includes "small ball" lineups that have featured just one of Amir, Zeller or KO.

Those sort of 'small ball with a true big' lineups have performed better than '2-big' lineups where the two bigs have been, say, Sully & Bass or Jerebko and Sully.

For a long stretch of this year, our best '2-big' lineup was Sully + KO.  That has most definitely not been the case the last few weeks, of course.

These are, of course, just general trends I've seen from staring up & down the 5-man unit data the last couple of seasons.  Exceptions happen.
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Re: Potential Small Ball centers in this draft
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2016, 07:15:49 PM »

Offline Greenback

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Forget about small ball.  It is a gimmick.  Let's just get somebody that knows how to play center.  San Antonio has always had one or two seven footers.

Sabonis and Skal may be the best in this draft.
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Re: Potential Small Ball centers in this draft
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2016, 07:21:40 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Brice Johnson, he isn't the shooter that is ideal for the position but his elite rebounding and mobility to switch on D may find him in this role. If he is on the court in a small ball vs small ball situation with out your traditional 6'10+ big men he should dominate the glass even at the NBA level.

I like this pick, the guy is a good athlete.

Re: Potential Small Ball centers in this draft
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2016, 07:53:43 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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The way the league is going the best way to come back from a deficit seems to be five guys spreading the floor in offense and switching everything in D. I agree size is needed in the rotation but extreme small ball like GS plays and ATL has run on the Cs has its place in the modern NBA.
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Re: Potential Small Ball centers in this draft
« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2016, 09:03:42 PM »

Offline Greenback

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I don't believe Golden State will be successful for very long - unless they get a good center.  Atlanta hasn't done anything great yet.
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