Anthony Bennett = top number 1 draft pick bust of all time?

[MBunge]

The only thing you can really say about Bennett at this point is that the draft he was taken 1st in was thought to be historically weak. 

You can also say that he really sucks.  Even in a weak draft, Bennett is remarkable for being genuinely terrible when compared to the rest.

Mike

[Tr1boy]

What was he projected to go in the predraft boards?

It was if I remember a pretty bad draft class.

With it being a weak draft board there was a lot of variation, but mostly Bennett seemed to be in the 5-10 range. Number 1 was a definite surprise.

Picking him # 1 was a classic example of drafting someone based on measurables (long arms, athletic) and ignoring other factors (especially basketball IQ).  Be real careful!!

Bingo

[Moranis]

The only thing you can really say about Bennett at this point is that the draft he was taken 1st in was thought to be historically weak.  There was no consensus top pick.  Nerlens Noel was seen as the best prospect, but his injury caused him to fall and nobody really thought he was a superstar prospect either.  Nobody really saw Bennett as a potential superstar.  The draft was seen as a crap shoot.  He was universally seen as a reach at the time he was drafted, but the Cavs apparently thought he had the highest ceiling if he could figure it out.  I watched him his first couple years and he was obviously terrible, but you could see glimmers of what the Cavs saw in him.  He had some tools.  Good mobility, large body, explosive, decent shooting mechanics.  He occasionally showed signs of being a decent player.  He performed well for Team Canada and in Summer League.  You could at least get a sense of why they drafted him and the type of player he could develop into if he put the tools together. 

In terms of how a #1 pick ended up, yeah... Bennett is a disaster.  But I could see a case being made that Greg Oden is a bigger bust simply because expectations were sky high for Oden.  That's the definition of a bust for me.  It's the same reason I don't look at failures taken 15-30 as "busts".  Nobody should reasonably expect a guy like Fab Melo to become a star - he was just a nice cheap late-round gamble in case he figured it out.  I don't think anyone reasonably expected Bennett to be a star.  He just had tools.  We've seen guys with tools who don't figure it out at all.  We've seen guys with tools who put it all together.  And we've even seen a rare instance of a guy with tools who disappeared for years only to return as a functional NBA basketball player (Gerald Green comes to mind).

I'm with you on arguing Greg Oden, but for a different reason.  The 2007 class wasn't amazing, but there was at least talent at the top.  Obviously Durant went #2, but Al Horford went #3 and Mike Conley went 4th.  Nine years later, and all three are top 2 players on their original teams.  What Portland missed out on by selecting Oden instead of Durant, or even Horford or Conley, was significant.  I don't think there's anyone in the top 5 of the 2013 draft who will even reach Conley's or Horford's NBA status, much less Durant's.  There needs to be some opportunity loss factored into considering busts.  Oden's is obvious.  Bennett, while obviously a major disappointment, isn't being blown out of the water by his peers.

Interesting way of looking at it.  I assume then you would put the Kandi man right up there in that class given that the 98 top ten includes Dirk, Pierce, Vince Carter, and Antawn Jamison.  In fact, if you look at VORP, Kandi was the worst player in his draft at -8.3, Dirk is the highest at 65.7.  Oden actually has a positive VORP of 1.6 because he was actual a useful player when he played.

[celticsclay]

The only thing you can really say about Bennett at this point is that the draft he was taken 1st in was thought to be historically weak.  There was no consensus top pick.  Nerlens Noel was seen as the best prospect, but his injury caused him to fall and nobody really thought he was a superstar prospect either.  Nobody really saw Bennett as a potential superstar.  The draft was seen as a crap shoot.  He was universally seen as a reach at the time he was drafted, but the Cavs apparently thought he had the highest ceiling if he could figure it out.  I watched him his first couple years and he was obviously terrible, but you could see glimmers of what the Cavs saw in him.  He had some tools.  Good mobility, large body, explosive, decent shooting mechanics.  He occasionally showed signs of being a decent player.  He performed well for Team Canada and in Summer League.  You could at least get a sense of why they drafted him and the type of player he could develop into if he put the tools together. 

In terms of how a #1 pick ended up, yeah... Bennett is a disaster.  But I could see a case being made that Greg Oden is a bigger bust simply because expectations were sky high for Oden.  That's the definition of a bust for me.  It's the same reason I don't look at failures taken 15-30 as "busts".  Nobody should reasonably expect a guy like Fab Melo to become a star - he was just a nice cheap late-round gamble in case he figured it out.  I don't think anyone reasonably expected Bennett to be a star.  He just had tools.  We've seen guys with tools who don't figure it out at all.  We've seen guys with tools who put it all together.  And we've even seen a rare instance of a guy with tools who disappeared for years only to return as a functional NBA basketball player (Gerald Green comes to mind).

There was enough of a glimmer of potential with Bennett that I made an infamous post during the dregs of the 2015 offseason hypothetically asking if it would be worthwhile to trade the #16 pick for Bennett:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78383.0

I admitted up front that the trade didn't make any functional sense, because of Bennett's contract.  It was never going to happen.  I myself never actually said I'd do it (though others did).  I admitted up front it was a ridiculous premise... I literally open the post by saying "ok, let me know when you're done laughing."  I was more just trying to start a conversation about targeting buy-low candidates who might have a higher ceiling than the players available at #16.  I later made a post asking if it would be worthwhile to trade #16 for Nik Stauskas. 

It would be the equivalent of me asking, "If the 2016 picks falls to #6, would any of you trade it for Mario Hezonja?"... Naturally, if Hezonja never reaches his potential you'd have guys here years later taking my question out of context and suggesting I thought Hezonja was a future superstar.  The "buy low" idea was a premise based on actual behavior from Danny Ainge.  Back in 2006 Ainge looked at his options with the #7 pick and decided he'd rather trade it for a buy-low candidate named Sebastian Telfair.  It didn't really work out.   Likewise, in the 2014 draft there was a strong rumor that Ainge was considering moving the #6 pick for Ben McLemore.   

Naturally, my comments were taken out of context and you'll see in dozens of threads, "LarBrd33 is an idiot... he thought Anthony Bennett, Nik Stauskas and Ben McLemore would be superstars".  Saw one of those as recently as yesterday.  I'm clearly an idiot, but at least find the stuff I'm actually an idiot about.

Anyways.  Bennett hasn't figured it out and probably never will.  But I'm not sure I'd say he's the biggest bust.  I saw Bennett the same way I saw Kedrick Brown.  Brown was a massive reach, but you could kind of see the things that were appealing about him.  He never figured it out.   In terms of guys who had massive expectations only to fall short, there's probably better examples than Bennett.

I didn't realize this thread was all about you. Thank you for clearing that up.

[saltlover]

The only thing you can really say about Bennett at this point is that the draft he was taken 1st in was thought to be historically weak.  There was no consensus top pick.  Nerlens Noel was seen as the best prospect, but his injury caused him to fall and nobody really thought he was a superstar prospect either.  Nobody really saw Bennett as a potential superstar.  The draft was seen as a crap shoot.  He was universally seen as a reach at the time he was drafted, but the Cavs apparently thought he had the highest ceiling if he could figure it out.  I watched him his first couple years and he was obviously terrible, but you could see glimmers of what the Cavs saw in him.  He had some tools.  Good mobility, large body, explosive, decent shooting mechanics.  He occasionally showed signs of being a decent player.  He performed well for Team Canada and in Summer League.  You could at least get a sense of why they drafted him and the type of player he could develop into if he put the tools together. 

In terms of how a #1 pick ended up, yeah... Bennett is a disaster.  But I could see a case being made that Greg Oden is a bigger bust simply because expectations were sky high for Oden.  That's the definition of a bust for me.  It's the same reason I don't look at failures taken 15-30 as "busts".  Nobody should reasonably expect a guy like Fab Melo to become a star - he was just a nice cheap late-round gamble in case he figured it out.  I don't think anyone reasonably expected Bennett to be a star.  He just had tools.  We've seen guys with tools who don't figure it out at all.  We've seen guys with tools who put it all together.  And we've even seen a rare instance of a guy with tools who disappeared for years only to return as a functional NBA basketball player (Gerald Green comes to mind).

I'm with you on arguing Greg Oden, but for a different reason.  The 2007 class wasn't amazing, but there was at least talent at the top.  Obviously Durant went #2, but Al Horford went #3 and Mike Conley went 4th.  Nine years later, and all three are top 2 players on their original teams.  What Portland missed out on by selecting Oden instead of Durant, or even Horford or Conley, was significant.  I don't think there's anyone in the top 5 of the 2013 draft who will even reach Conley's or Horford's NBA status, much less Durant's.  There needs to be some opportunity loss factored into considering busts.  Oden's is obvious.  Bennett, while obviously a major disappointment, isn't being blown out of the water by his peers.

Interesting way of looking at it.  I assume then you would put the Kandi man right up there in that class given that the 98 top ten includes Dirk, Pierce, Vince Carter, and Antawn Jamison.  In fact, if you look at VORP, Kandi was the worst player in his draft at -8.3, Dirk is the highest at 65.7.  Oden actually has a positive VORP of 1.6 because he was actual a useful player when he played.

Yes, Olowokandi would be in my top busts list.  I might still give Oden the edge because the best players in the 1997 draft went several picks later, so it wasn't as immediately obvious who to pick instead.  Mike Bibby and Raef LaFrentz had some decent seasons, but Jordan Crawford had as many player of the week honors as a Celtic as those two had combined for their careers, and that was the extent of their league-wide acknowledgement.  Once you get beyond pick 4-5 looking for your draft's best player, it means a lot of teams missed.

But if you want to call Kandi man the biggest bust, I wouldn't object.

[MJohnnyboy]

Is this just NBA or is it in all of sports?

If its NBA, then there's definitely a good case that Bennett is the biggest bust ever. At the same time, people thought Cleveland was crazy to select him #1 so that makes one think is him being a bust more on him or more on Cleveland's ineptitude when it comes to drafting?

[alldaboston]

What was he projected to go in the predraft boards?

It was if I remember a pretty bad draft class.

With it being a weak draft board there was a lot of variation, but mostly Bennett seemed to be in the 5-10 range. Number 1 was a definite surprise.

Picking him # 1 was a classic example of drafting someone based on measurables (long arms, athletic) and ignoring other factors (especially basketball IQ).  Be real careful!!

Bingo

Danny please don't do this. Don't take someone like jaylen brown or bender too early.

[Eddie20]

There was enough of a glimmer of potential with Bennett that I made an infamous post during the dregs of the 2015 offseason hypothetically asking if it would be worthwhile to trade the #16 pick for Bennett:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78383.0

I admitted up front that the trade didn't make any functional sense, because of Bennett's contract.  It was never going to happen.  I myself never actually said I'd do it (though others did).  I admitted up front it was a ridiculous premise... I literally open the post by saying "ok, let me know when you're done laughing."  I was more just trying to start a conversation about targeting buy-low candidates who might have a higher ceiling than the players available at #16.  I later made a post asking if it would be worthwhile to trade #16 for Nik Stauskas. 

You often protect yourself from potential ridicule by framing the majority of your thoughts in a similar fashion. It's a can't lose situation. If he plays out of his mind you look like a genius. If he busts you brace your fall by using the excuses above. What I find ridiculous is you writing a 1000 word summary on something you find "ridiculous".

[mmmmm]

The only thing you can really say about Bennett at this point is that the draft he was taken 1st in was thought to be historically weak. 

You can also say that he really sucks.  Even in a weak draft, Bennett is remarkable for being genuinely terrible when compared to the rest.

Mike

Yah, seriously.  Bennet is pretty dang awful.

I mean, some guys are 'busts' because they get injured or maybe got blocked by better players for playing time so you could hold on to some uncertainty that maybe, just maybe if they got a chance to play they'd show something.

But Bennet is just awful.

He's actually played 1641 minutes in his 3 seasons.  Not a ton, but that still puts him in the top 30 for minutes among his draft class.   It's a full seasons' worth of minutes.  But despite those minutes, he has accrued zero Win Shares.   That ranks him in a tie for 40th from his draft class.

And blaming the 'weak draft' around him for why he is so bad seems bizarre.  No other pick taken in the top 10 of that draft has performed remotely near as bad.  Even McLemore, taken #7, has managed to accrue 3.6 WS during his 3 years.  He's at least got a horrible organization to blame.

Of the other top-10 picks (Oladipo, Porter, Cody Zeller, Len, Noel, KCP, Burke & McCollum) while none have emerged as superstars, all have proven to be at least serviceable NBA players.  And same with most of the next 5 picks (MCW, Adams, Olynyk, Shabazz, Giannis).

You can quibble over a couple of these names as to how good they are, but it's pretty clear that, even though none have emerged (yet) as super stars, the vast majority of the other top 15 picks in that draft have at least proven to be serviceable NBA players and some are proving to be very, very good players.  CJM may be emerging as a potential star.

That fact really makes the Bennet pick look pretty awful.

[Celtics4ever]

It was a reach when they took him, he is a bust.

[Denis998]

What would I pay to see a video of their draft room when they drafted Bennett. Maybe even have a documentary made on the Cavs version of "The decision"

[BornReady]

I remember the draft analysis before the draft occurred
There was no consensus on a 1 pick
People were saying Noel but he was injured and was too skinny from not working out while injured

I remember thinking that I couldn't choose who I would pick no 1
Some draft analysis said that cavs should trade down to get some proven players

Also I remember myself reading about Bennett and I said that I would not draft him at all in the lottery and laughed at the larry Johnson comparisons made

[loco_91]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NBA_draft_picks

Based on this list of overall number 1 picks, this is the best I could come up with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Melchiorre

Point shaving scandal

Melchiorre was involved in a massive point shaving scandal in 1951 which brought seven schools and 32 players from around the US to face charges on violations of the New York state penal code. On July 24, 1951, Melchiorre and four of his teammates admitted taking bribes to hold down scores against St. Joseph's University in Philadelphia in 1951 and against Oregon State University in Chicago.[3]

Melchiorre and two of his teammates pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor in New York. Though the players faced three years in prison, the assistant District Attorney praised the trio's cooperation, and they were given suspended sentences.

NBA[edit]

After completion of his four years at Bradley and a suspended sentence for the point shaving scandal, Melchiorre entered the 1951 NBA Draft. He was selected as the first overall pick in the draft by the Baltimore Bullets. Melchiorre would never play a minute of NBA basketball, however. Not long after he admitted his role in the scandal, NBA President Maurice Podoloff banned all players involved in the point shaving scandal, including Melchiorre, from the NBA for life.

TP, never heard of him. That's rough for the bullets.