I love this thread. So many strong opinions about a player nobody knows anything about, outside of probably 12 minutes of low quality, online game footage from a league most here are unfamiliar with. Love it.
We do know his stats, several years worth, and they were not solid against inferior competition. In face, in some ways they have got worse. Major red flags.
How many foreigners has Ainge drafted besides KO, who played his ball in America in college? How many? He has been the GM for years right? Could there be a pattern there?
The main stats that have 'got worse' for Bender are those based on per game totals, because as he made the jump up to a much tougher pro league this year (on a team dominated by veterans aged 25-32), he got youngest-rookie minutes. So he dropped from getting 30 mpg in Juniors (under 18 league) to getting 12.1 mpg in his first 34 games in a much, much tougher pro league. So sure, his points per game and other 'x per game' numbers all dropped. Why is that surprising and why would that be a red flag?
That mpg rate would correspond to just under 1000 minutes on an 82 game schedule -- that would be a perfectly reasonable expectation for a rookie in the NBA. And Bender is way younger this season than a normal rookie would be in the NBA.
Folks need to stop looking at the per-game stats and totals because of his limited minutes and look instead at what he's done _with_ the 413 minutes that he got.
In particular, his shooting/scoring stats were all much higher this year than in Juniors:
TS%: .564 (up from .456-.509 in Juniors)
eFG%: .534 (up from .438-.456)
3PT%: .379 (up from .125-.267)
'Pretty clear that his shooting & scoring efficiencies did not 'get worse'. His AST/TO ratio also improved each year through the Juniors and through this season.
Bender's rebounding numbers took a hit, as his DRB% dropped from being usually in the mid-20s in Juniors down to ~15% this year, but that's not unexpected given the jump in the level of competition, playing with much older, bigger & stronger grown men. That deficit should change as he matures.
Now, should we look at those numbers and jump to the conclusion that he's awesome? That he is a "can't miss" pick at #3?
Nah. The sample is still small and there is a lot of uncertainty. But however small the sample is, it does show positive trends, especially when you add in the context of his age and the jump up in league level.
I think TheSundanceKid summed up things correct when he asserted that ultimately, how Bender performs in the Combine and in workouts will determine his final draft slot. I trust Danny will do his research.
(That all assumes Danny doesn't trade the pick, of course.)
All stats here taken from:
http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Dragan-Bender/Summary/41582