Author Topic: Dragan Bender  (Read 29835 times)

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Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #165 on: April 25, 2016, 02:10:55 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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So if the allegation is that Bender would be Jerebko on steroids.  You have to wonder how good that would project to be.  Jerebko is killing it against the hawks in game 4 btw.  Real big spark plug for us.

If we had Isaiah Thomas on steriods, ie in a longer, more athletic package, that would be pretty darn good.  How good is Bender?  No idea...   But he's projected top 4 for a reason right?

reading the article:
"The Celtics had a terrific 95.4 defensive rating with Jerebko on the floor against the Hawks and a tremendous +16.2 net rating."

""It helps a lot. It goes back to last year because I think we ran that lineup a lot last year," Isaiah Thomas said when asked about the Jerebko-Crowder frontcourt. "We were very successful in making teams adjust to us on both ends. Jonas is a versatile player that can guard multiple positions."

Going back to last season, the Celtics have a +27.5 Net Rating (131.7 offensive rating, 104.2 defensive rating) in 167 possessions with that pairing, according to NBAWowy.com. The Celtics used it again over the final 2:15 and outscored the Hawks 6-2."

Let me remind you of some of the other guys who have been projected to go high in the lottery in the past...

Thomas Robinson
Darko Milicic
Evan Turner
Wesley Johnson
Derrick Williams
Dion Waiters
Michael Kidd Gilchrist
Anthony Bennett
Otto Porter
Cody Zeller
Hasheem Thabeet
Michael Beaqsley
OJ Mayo
Yi Jianlian
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams

I could go on, but I won't. 

Fact is that mock drafts are predictions.  If you look at the top 5 or 6 guys each year you will find that the mock drafts often get 2 or 3 guys very right, and 2 or 3 guys very, very wrong.

The fact that everybody is drooling over Bender hardly means that he is is a sure thing.

What is the point of this post?  That sometimes people can be projected highly and not work out, therefore we should never draft anybody high in the lottery? The list of names of people who were projected highly and worked out is pretty long, too. 

We could trade a bunch of picks for someone like multiple time NBA champion Andrew Bynum or 1st Team All-NBA Dwight Howard, too.  Everything is a gamble, we have to make a decision based on what's in front of us - and a 7'1" SF / small ball 4 who can shoot from 3, is the youngest player in the draft, that has played professionally since he was 15 and does really well in the All-Under-18 Euro Tournies is not exactly the biggest risk we could be taking.

A lot of those you listed were inexplicable reaches, too - Anthony Bennett was mocked in the 7-11 range, Otto Porter was supposed to go like 8th-10th, Adam Morrison was an Inexplicable Jordan White Guy Reach, etc.  There are more mock drafts going back longer with Bender going highly than pretty much anybody on that list.  Except Beasley, I will never figure that one out.  He averaged like 30 ppg in college or something.

Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #166 on: April 26, 2016, 07:36:59 AM »

Offline Big333223

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I love this thread. So many strong opinions about a player nobody knows anything about, outside of probably 12 minutes of low quality, online game footage from a league most here are unfamiliar with. Love it.
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Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #167 on: April 26, 2016, 08:12:23 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I love this thread. So many strong opinions about a player nobody knows anything about, outside of probably 12 minutes of low quality, online game footage from a league most here are unfamiliar with. Love it.

I've given up commenting on these threads. None of us can formulate a definitive opinion on him yet, we can only go on what video we can find and what the scouts and experts are saying. The video analysis has been done to death. The scouts and experts seem high on him, as shown by the fact he has remained at 3 throughout March Madness. Until he comes over for workouts we won't have a clear idea of whether that is justified or not.

Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #168 on: May 02, 2016, 07:00:50 PM »

Offline footey

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Just watched the DE film on him.  Givony likes him a lot.  I think he is very versatile.  I can see Stevens really liking him, since he has ability to guard multiple positions. Has really quick feet for his size.    He has to gain weight, but that was the same knock on Porzingis.  If we don't trade the pick, end up with the 3rd pick or later, I could see Danny drafting him. You can't worry about whether or not the guy you draft (if you draft) is going to help right away or not. If that was the method, you would probably just take Buddy.  You have to think long term with high draft picks.

Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #169 on: May 02, 2016, 09:34:44 PM »

Offline loco_91

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I love this thread. So many strong opinions about a player nobody knows anything about, outside of probably 12 minutes of low quality, online game footage from a league most here are unfamiliar with. Love it.

TP

Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #170 on: May 02, 2016, 09:43:54 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I love this thread. So many strong opinions about a player nobody knows anything about, outside of probably 12 minutes of low quality, online game footage from a league most here are unfamiliar with. Love it.

We do know his stats, several years worth, and they were not solid against inferior competition.   In face, in some ways they have got worse.   Major red flags.

How many foreigners has Ainge drafted besides KO, who played his ball in America in college?   How many?   He has been the GM for years right?   Could there be a pattern there?

Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #171 on: May 02, 2016, 09:48:26 PM »

Offline GetLucky

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So if the allegation is that Bender would be Jerebko on steroids.  You have to wonder how good that would project to be.  Jerebko is killing it against the hawks in game 4 btw.  Real big spark plug for us.

If we had Isaiah Thomas on steriods, ie in a longer, more athletic package, that would be pretty darn good.  How good is Bender?  No idea...   But he's projected top 4 for a reason right?

reading the article:
"The Celtics had a terrific 95.4 defensive rating with Jerebko on the floor against the Hawks and a tremendous +16.2 net rating."

""It helps a lot. It goes back to last year because I think we ran that lineup a lot last year," Isaiah Thomas said when asked about the Jerebko-Crowder frontcourt. "We were very successful in making teams adjust to us on both ends. Jonas is a versatile player that can guard multiple positions."

Going back to last season, the Celtics have a +27.5 Net Rating (131.7 offensive rating, 104.2 defensive rating) in 167 possessions with that pairing, according to NBAWowy.com. The Celtics used it again over the final 2:15 and outscored the Hawks 6-2."

Let me remind you of some of the other guys who have been projected to go high in the lottery in the past...

Thomas Robinson
Darko Milicic
Evan Turner
Wesley Johnson
Derrick Williams
Dion Waiters
Michael Kidd Gilchrist
Anthony Bennett
Otto Porter
Cody Zeller
Hasheem Thabeet
Michael Beaqsley
OJ Mayo
Yi Jianlian
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams

I could go on, but I won't. 

Fact is that mock drafts are predictions.  If you look at the top 5 or 6 guys each year you will find that the mock drafts often get 2 or 3 guys very right, and 2 or 3 guys very, very wrong.

The fact that everybody is drooling over Bender hardly means that he is is a sure thing.

What is the point of this post?  That sometimes people can be projected highly and not work out, therefore we should never draft anybody high in the lottery? The list of names of people who were projected highly and worked out is pretty long, too. 

We could trade a bunch of picks for someone like multiple time NBA champion Andrew Bynum or 1st Team All-NBA Dwight Howard, too.  Everything is a gamble, we have to make a decision based on what's in front of us - and a 7'1" SF / small ball 4 who can shoot from 3, is the youngest player in the draft, that has played professionally since he was 15 and does really well in the All-Under-18 Euro Tournies is not exactly the biggest risk we could be taking.

A lot of those you listed were inexplicable reaches, too - Anthony Bennett was mocked in the 7-11 range, Otto Porter was supposed to go like 8th-10th, Adam Morrison was an Inexplicable Jordan White Guy Reach, etc.  There are more mock drafts going back longer with Bender going highly than pretty much anybody on that list.  Except Beasley, I will never figure that one out.  He averaged like 30 ppg in college or something.

Beasley was a pot head, had a poor diet, and had no work ethic at all. There are many articles that say he would down ounces and ounces of candy before games and still go drop 20. After awhile, his poor habits and lack of preparation got to him, and his talent couldn't carry him anymore. He still did average 19.2 ppg one year on the Timberwolves. He had potential, but he had neither the work ethic to achieve it nor the mentor to instill it into him.

Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #172 on: May 02, 2016, 10:39:50 PM »

Offline ederson

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We could trade a bunch of picks for someone like multiple time NBA champion Andrew Bynum or 1st Team All-NBA Dwight Howard, too.  Everything is a gamble, we have to make a decision based on what's in front of us - and a 7'1" SF / small ball 4 who can shoot from 3, is the youngest player in the draft, that has played professionally since he was 15 and does really well in the All-Under-18 Euro Tournies is not exactly the biggest risk we could be taking.

Which u18 tournaments are you talking about? I didn t check very thoroughly but i didn t find anything similar. In fact i watched the last two (euro and world championship) and i can t even  remember  hearing his name.

Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #173 on: May 02, 2016, 10:59:56 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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We could trade a bunch of picks for someone like multiple time NBA champion Andrew Bynum or 1st Team All-NBA Dwight Howard, too.  Everything is a gamble, we have to make a decision based on what's in front of us - and a 7'1" SF / small ball 4 who can shoot from 3, is the youngest player in the draft, that has played professionally since he was 15 and does really well in the All-Under-18 Euro Tournies is not exactly the biggest risk we could be taking.

Which u18 tournaments are you talking about? I didn t check very thoroughly but i didn t find anything similar. In fact i watched the last two (euro and world championship) and i can t even  remember  hearing his name.

I assume the Euroleague Next Generation Tournament.
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Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #174 on: May 02, 2016, 11:31:03 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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We could trade a bunch of picks for someone like multiple time NBA champion Andrew Bynum or 1st Team All-NBA Dwight Howard, too.  Everything is a gamble, we have to make a decision based on what's in front of us - and a 7'1" SF / small ball 4 who can shoot from 3, is the youngest player in the draft, that has played professionally since he was 15 and does really well in the All-Under-18 Euro Tournies is not exactly the biggest risk we could be taking.
Who is that guy and why isn't he in any of the mock drafts I've seen?  ;D ;D ;D












P.S. If you think Dragan Bender will ever play SF in the NBA, you're completely delusional.
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Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #175 on: May 03, 2016, 12:10:55 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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I love this thread. So many strong opinions about a player nobody knows anything about, outside of probably 12 minutes of low quality, online game footage from a league most here are unfamiliar with. Love it.

We do know his stats, several years worth, and they were not solid against inferior competition.   In face, in some ways they have got worse.   Major red flags.

How many foreigners has Ainge drafted besides KO, who played his ball in America in college?   How many?   He has been the GM for years right?   Could there be a pattern there?

The main stats that have 'got worse' for Bender are those based on per game totals, because as he made the jump up to a much tougher pro league this year (on a team dominated by veterans aged 25-32), he got youngest-rookie minutes.   So he dropped from getting 30 mpg in Juniors (under 18 league) to getting 12.1 mpg in his first 34 games in a much, much tougher pro league.  So sure, his points per game and other 'x per game' numbers all dropped.  Why is that surprising and why would that be a red flag?

That mpg rate would correspond to just under 1000 minutes on an 82 game schedule -- that would be a perfectly reasonable expectation for a rookie in the NBA.  And Bender is way younger this season than a normal rookie would be in the NBA.

Folks need to stop looking at the per-game stats and totals because of his limited minutes and look instead at what he's done _with_ the 413 minutes that he got.

In particular, his shooting/scoring stats were all much higher this year than in Juniors:

TS%: .564 (up from .456-.509 in Juniors)
eFG%: .534  (up from .438-.456)
3PT%:  .379 (up from .125-.267)

'Pretty clear that his shooting & scoring efficiencies did not 'get worse'.   His AST/TO ratio also improved each year through the Juniors and through this season.

Bender's rebounding numbers took a hit, as his DRB% dropped from being usually in the mid-20s in Juniors down to ~15% this year, but that's not unexpected given the jump in the level of competition, playing with much older, bigger & stronger grown men.  That deficit should change as he matures.

Now, should we look at those numbers and jump to the conclusion that he's awesome?  That he is a "can't miss" pick at #3?

Nah.  The sample is still small and there is a lot of uncertainty.   But however small the sample is, it does show positive trends, especially when you add in the context of his age and the jump up in league level.

I think TheSundanceKid summed up things correct when he asserted that ultimately, how Bender performs in the Combine and in workouts will determine his final draft slot.   I trust Danny will do his research.

(That all assumes Danny doesn't trade the pick, of course.)

All stats here taken from:  http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Dragan-Bender/Summary/41582
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Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #176 on: May 03, 2016, 08:01:11 AM »

Offline ederson

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We could trade a bunch of picks for someone like multiple time NBA champion Andrew Bynum or 1st Team All-NBA Dwight Howard, too.  Everything is a gamble, we have to make a decision based on what's in front of us - and a 7'1" SF / small ball 4 who can shoot from 3, is the youngest player in the draft, that has played professionally since he was 15 and does really well in the All-Under-18 Euro Tournies is not exactly the biggest risk we could be taking.

Which u18 tournaments are you talking about? I didn t check very thoroughly but i didn t find anything similar. In fact i watched the last two (euro and world championship) and i can t even  remember  hearing his name.

I assume the Euroleague Next Generation Tournament.

http://www.adidasngt.com/u18/game-center/statistics?mode=Leaders&entity=Players&seasonmode=Single&seasoncode=JT14&cat=Valuation&agg=Accumulated
i took a look... the only competition he looks good ... but nothing spectacular... take a look at Yoursteven for example .....

Re: Dragan Bender
« Reply #177 on: May 03, 2016, 03:59:59 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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A lot of those you listed were inexplicable reaches, too - Anthony Bennett was mocked in the 7-11 range, Otto Porter was supposed to go like 8th-10th, Adam Morrison was an Inexplicable Jordan White Guy Reach, etc.  There are more mock drafts going back longer with Bender going highly than pretty much anybody on that list.  Except Beasley, I will never figure that one out.  He averaged like 30 ppg in college or something.

Not that it matters, but I think you're misremembering with Porter and Morrison. Both were seen as top-3 picks:

http://www.nbadraft.net/2013mock_draft

http://www.nbadraft.net/mocks/2006_nba_mock_draft.html



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