The Celtics could win 50 games this year and are a legitimate contender to sign Durant as a free agent, so the answer is no.  But would the Kings or some other currently terrible team be better off if they'd hired Hinkie?  I think the answer is arguably yes.

Mike

This is purely a speculative exercise.

Let's say 4 years ago the Celtics brass decided they had had enough of Danny Ainge and so they hired Sam Hinkie. 

Judging from how Philly has played over the past 4 years we surely would not have wanted to watch that type of basketball. So, for this exercise....there is no allowance for those who want to say, I wouldn't trade our wins for their loses, etc. We are now at SQUARE ONE....this imaginary past, is the past, we can't change that either. It doesn't matter what you think or feel about it. 

The question is would the Celtics be a better position to win a future Championship under the Hinkie framework?

Given Hinkie's philosophy we can assume the Celtics would have tanked 4 straight years and received or will soon acquire four top lottery picks. Who might those players have been? Noels Nerlin, Joel Embiid, Jahil Okafor, our own Evan Turner, T.J. McConnell,  possibly LA's pick this year, Sacramento number 1 this year?, their own number 1 pick this year, overseas - Dario Saric and Vasilije Micic.
It's decision time, you have to forget the real past.  Yes, I know it might affect which free agents might come here. 
Are we better off with Danny's decisions or this purely speculative Hinkie roster?

One thing worth mentioning... We took our sweet time with rondo in 2014 after trading away KG and Pierce for future picks... We essentially tanked by my definition of tanking (acquiring long range assets that sets the team up to fail in the short term).  We tanked all the way to Marcus smart.  And we set out in 2015 by trading arguably both of our best players (rondo and green) as well as multiple vets for long-range assets.   These are moves made by a team that has no concern about the short term.  These are moves intended to tank.

I truly believe ainge preferred to bottom out last season.  A few things prevented it.  First, brad Stevens is a miracle worker and got the most out of the roster.  This wasn't terribly surprising considering this was exactly what Stevens was known for at butler.   Next, ainge saw an opportunity to land one of his long-time targets (Thomas) for the low price of a late 1st.  Ainge pounced.   Still, his comments as Boston made their inexplicable run all suggested that he preferred getting a top pick over a pointless 1st round sweep.

This team has never been above tanking.  Philly just committed to it shamelessly.  Allowing massive log jams at a single position, avoiding any free agent signings, and filling out the roster with undrafted d league talent that would guarantee a bottom record.  I wouldn't want any other GM running the Celtics.  Ainge gets it on every level.  He has a healthy respect for tanking as well.  Philly used similar methods to acquire their bounty of assets. They just made zero effort in putting a competitive team out there, because they realized the short term was irrelevant to their long term goals.

I wouldn't want any other GM running the Celtics.  Ainge gets it on every level.  He has a healthy respect for tanking as well.  Philly used similar methods to acquire their bounty of assets. They just made zero effort in putting a competitive team out there, because they realized the short term was irrelevant to their long term goals.

This.

I think over the 4 years, Danny aquired more assests than hinkie did in Philly.
Noel (good defender) , okafor (torn meniscus), and embiid (out 2 years), and philly pick this year. Vs 3 Brooklyn picks (likely to be top 5), Smart (good defender), IT4 (All Star), Jae Crowder (has been great both sides of floor), resigned AB (best on ball defender?), signed BS
I'd rather have Danny assuming Hinkie would have replicated what he did over in Philly.

I think over the 4 years, Danny aquired more assests than hinkie did in Philly.
Noel (good defender) , okafor (torn meniscus), and embiid (out 2 years), and philly pick this year. Vs 3 Brooklyn picks (likely to be top 5), Smart (good defender), IT4 (All Star), Jae Crowder (has been great both sides of floor), resigned AB (best on ball defender?), signed BS
I'd rather have Danny assuming Hinkie would have replicated what he did over in Philly.

Injuries surely turn the tide in Danny's favor. However, Hinkie's moves could elevate the 76's to an elite bracket if everyone comes back healthy next October. Imagine a front line of Embiid, Okafor, Noels and Dario Saric and their own number one pick? That alone will create nightmare match-ups for opposing teams. What if that pick turns out to be Ingram?

Should the LA pick fall out of the top 3 and they sign a top free agent. It's a slam dunk. Of course, good health, the LA pick, Daric and free agent signings all have to fall into place. There are a lot of "ifs' here. So, only time will tell. 
 

I truly believe ainge preferred to bottom out last season.  A few things prevented it.  First, brad Stevens is a miracle worker and got the most out of the roster...   Next, ainge saw an opportunity to land one of his long-time targets (Thomas) for the low price of a late 1st. Ainge pounced.

Philly just committed to it shamelessly.  Allowing massive log jams at a single position, avoiding any free agent signings, and filling out the roster with undrafted d league talent that would guarantee a bottom record.

You just articulated perfectly the flaw in Hinkie's mindset and on the other side Ainge's brilliance: an ability to change strategy and adjust on the fly as circumstances changed.

By all accounts Hinkie never deviated from his "acquire top 5 picks" goals. Danny modified his plans when opportunity knocked.

We don't know what other opportunities Hinkie rejected in favor of maintaining his strategy, but I would lay odds that at various points he had opportunities to acquire real talent in exchange for minimal assets going the other way...and he said "no."

It's entirely possible that the Sixers could be in a far more favorable spot right now - with most of their picks still in pocket, and most of their prospects, but also a solid core and some valuable role players. Like we have but with more chances at one or more franchise players.

I mean this is all conjecture, but I think Hinkie was too single-minded in his pursuit of being awful. That's why Danny is the better GM.

Quote from: LarBrd33 on April 09, 2016, 08:42:14 PM

I truly believe ainge preferred to bottom out last season.  A few things prevented it.  First, brad Stevens is a miracle worker and got the most out of the roster...   Next, ainge saw an opportunity to land one of his long-time targets (Thomas) for the low price of a late 1st. Ainge pounced.

Philly just committed to it shamelessly.  Allowing massive log jams at a single position, avoiding any free agent signings, and filling out the roster with undrafted d league talent that would guarantee a bottom record.

You just articulated perfectly the flaw in Hinkie's mindset and on the other side Ainge's brilliance: an ability to change strategy and adjust on the fly as circumstances changed.

By all accounts Hinkie never deviated from his "acquire top 5 picks" goals. Danny modified his plans when opportunity knocked.

We don't know what other opportunities Hinkie rejected in favor of maintaining his strategy, but I would lay odds that at various points he had opportunities to acquire real talent in exchange for minimal assets going the other way...and he said "no."

It's entirely possible that the Sixers could be in a far more favorable spot right now - with most of their picks still in pocket, and most of their prospects, but also a solid core and some valuable role players. Like we have but with more chances at one or more franchise players.

I mean this is all conjecture, but I think Hinkie was too single-minded in his pursuit of being awful. That's why Danny is the better GM.

It's not a flaw if it produces results in the draft.  Boston's own pick with be in the 20s.  Philly's pick will be top 4 (and yah I get we have the Brooklyn pick and they have the lakers pick).  Pouncing too early may have been counterproductive to their strategy and their strategy still may prove to be fruitful.