Author Topic: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread  (Read 93581 times)

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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #90 on: April 09, 2016, 04:09:34 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Current standings as of April 9th:

1) Cleveland 56-23
2) Toronto 53-26
3) Atlanta 47-32
4) Boston 47-32
5) Miami 46-33
6) Charlotte 46-33
7) Detroit 43-37
8 ) Indiana 42-37
9) Chicago 39-40

Tonight is another big night for us. Ultimately, we have to win tonight in Atlanta in order to take the third seed. If we don't win, then by virtue of tiebreaker Atlanta would have to lose their remaining two games (@ Cleveland, @ DC who has been eliminated from playoff contention) and we'd have to win our remaining two games to still take third, which isn't happening. So we must win tonight to realistically be the frontrunners for the third seed.

Also, if we win tonight, then Miami should no longer be a threat to overtaking us. Their remaining games are vs Orlando (who they just lost to), @ Detroit (1-2 vs them this year), and @ Boston (0-2 vs them this year), and they've been absolutely terrible on the road. The Hornets play a back to back @ Washington (2-1 vs them this year) and then @ Boston (0-2 vs them this year), so as long as we take care of Charlotte at home they won't be a problem for us. Don't be surprised to see Miami in the 6th seed for the playoffs.

Cleveland is also playing in Chicago tonight, which is important for our seeding chances, too. If Chicago can pull an upset, which they owe us one after laying an egg in Miami the other night, then Chicago is still in the playoff race and Cleveland will still not have secured the first seed in the East. So if Chicago can pull an upset at home and Toronto takes care of business against the Knicks tomorrow, then Cleveland will still be playing for something when Atlanta goes to Cleveland on Monday, which could give us some further cushion on the third seed if we win tonight, though we'll still have to most likely win out for the third seed since the division-leading Hawks have the tiebreaker over us.

Phoenix is playing New Orleans tonight, too, which doesn't affect our seeding but does affect the Brooklyn pick. So it's another good NBA night for C's fans that all starts with our most important game of the year so far in Atlanta starting at 7:30!

If we happen to lose tonight, we're very, very likely to be the fourth seed in the East, as long as we don't implode in the final two games. And more than likely we'll be playing the Hornets, which is a good matchup for us.

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #91 on: April 09, 2016, 10:44:37 PM »

Offline j804

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So how are things looking after today potential 1st and 2nd round matchup against who?

Ughh bummed about this loss today
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #92 on: April 09, 2016, 10:45:50 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Well, after we gave away this Hawks game due to selfish and stupid play, we're pretty much out of the running for the third seed. Here's the updated standings for today:

1) Cleveland 56-23 (pending game against Chicago - Bulls up 11 with 6 minutes to go)
2) Toronto 53-26
3) Atlanta 48-32
4) Boston 47-33
5) Miami 46-33
6) Charlotte 46-33
7) Detroit 43-37
8 ) Indiana 42-37
9) Chicago 39-40 (pending game against Cleveland - Bulls up 11 with 6 minutes to go)

We still have an outside chance at the third seed. If Atlanta would lose at Cleveland on Monday (they'd still be fighting for the number one seed if they lose to Chicago tonight, so it's probable) and at Washington (unlikely) and we won out, then we would outright take the third seed. It's highly unlikely that Atlanta will lose twice, though, so we're pretty much primed to take the four seed.

We end the season with two home games against Charlotte and Miami, who are both a win back from us right now. Charlotte plays a back-to-back at Washington on Sunday and Boston on Monday and ending the season at home with Orlando. As long as we beat them on Monday, then they can't catch us in the standings. Miami plays at home against Orlando tomorrow, and then they finish with a back-to-back at Detroit and then Boston on Tuesday and Wednesday. They've been absolutely terrible on the road lately, and they're a combined 1-4 vs us and Detroit. Thus, they're most likely not winning both of those games, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them lose both of them and slip to the sixth seed. And, who knows, they're actually 3-1 vs the Hawks this year, and being in the sixth spot would have them avoid Cleveland until the conference finals. So they very well might rest guys and try to slip to the sixth seed in order to play Atlanta over us and avoid Cleveland.

We have both tiebreakers over Charlotte and Miami, so in any two-way tie or three-way tie we will win the tiebreaker. Miami has the tiebreaker over Charlotte, so if they finish with the same record, then Miami gets the higher spot.

Here's my guess: Miami's game plan will depend upon the result of our game Monday night. They'll still try for homecourt advantage, but that will be exceedingly unlikely if we win on Monday night, since they'd have to win in Detroit and Boston in consecutive nights. Thus, I bet they try to avoid us and Cleveland altogether and rest their guys on the final road trip in order to get the sixth seed.

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #93 on: April 09, 2016, 11:03:10 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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Cavs have something to play for Monday  :D

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #94 on: April 10, 2016, 01:51:33 PM »

Offline Celtic Fan Forever

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Wizards up 12 on the Hornets going into the 4th quarter. Would be huge for us if they pulled this out.
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #95 on: April 10, 2016, 01:54:44 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Wizards up 12 on the Hornets going into the 4th quarter. Would be huge for us if they pulled this out.

Ugghh, but then that would almost guarantee that we play the Heat in the first round, though, which I'm still confident about but not as much as Charlotte.

Are Wall and Beal and everyone playing? If so, maybe there still is a chance that Atlanta could lose twice to Cleveland and Washington.

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #96 on: April 10, 2016, 02:01:37 PM »

Offline Celtic Fan Forever

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Wizards up 12 on the Hornets going into the 4th quarter. Would be huge for us if they pulled this out.

Ugghh, but then that would almost guarantee that we play the Heat in the first round, though, which I'm still confident about but not as much as Charlotte.

Are Wall and Beal and everyone playing? If so, maybe there still is a chance that Atlanta could lose twice to Cleveland and Washington.

Still, anything that improves our chances of having homecourt is a win in my eyes. I'm not as scared of Miami if we're the team with HCA. I'd rather be the 4 seed against Miami than the 5 seed against Charlotte. We're a much, much better team in Boston.

Wall is still out and Beal has barely played today. Guys like Dudley, Gortat, Sessions, and Porter are really stepping up
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #97 on: April 10, 2016, 02:03:19 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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Wizards up 12 on the Hornets going into the 4th quarter. Would be huge for us if they pulled this out.

Ugghh, but then that would almost guarantee that we play the Heat in the first round, though, which I'm still confident about but not as much as Charlotte.

Are Wall and Beal and everyone playing? If so, maybe there still is a chance that Atlanta could lose twice to Cleveland and Washington.

Still, anything that improves our chances of having homecourt is a win in my eyes. I'm not as scared of Miami if we're the team with HCA. I'd rather be the 4 seed against Miami than the 5 seed against Charlotte. We're a much, much better team in Boston.

Wall is still out and Beal has barely played today. Guys like Dudley, Gortat, Sessions, and Porter are really stepping up


Let's hope they step up against the Nets too.

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #98 on: April 10, 2016, 02:56:31 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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TP to jpotter33 for updating this so consistently and thoroughly. This thread is better for grasping the Celts' playoff position at a glance than anything the pro media provides.

That said, I kind of want the reverse of what everyone else wants. I'm a dreamer, and I want this season to end in a glorious improbable upset of the Warriors, one reminiscent of the Football Upset That Shall Not Be Named from 8 years ago, this time the home team playing the role of GOAT-spoiler. To match that narrative, I want the C's to prevail as road warriors against the toughest possible round-by-round opponents. If they get the 5th seed, if they face the Heat, if they take down the Cavs, if they upset the Raptors, and then if they can shock the Warriors...perfect. The bigger the odds and better the opponents you vanquish, the more glory you collect from them. I learned that from the Iliad. #homer
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #99 on: April 10, 2016, 03:30:02 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Reminder - Miami still plays Orlando tonight. My theory of them wanting to drop to the sixth seed is complicated now by Charlotte's loss, but still doable. Do they really think they'll win out with two games on the road against teams they're 1-4 against? I feel like that is increasingly unlikely.

However, it's virtually impossible for Charlotte to attain home court advantage now, so they might now prefer the sixth seed to the fifth seed. If I remember right, they're 2-2 vs Atl while they're 0-2 vs us. The sixth seed  also would avoid Clevelabd until the ECF, so tonight's game in Miami and tomorrow in Boston will be interesting to see if anyone rests or not in a strategic seeding move.

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #100 on: April 10, 2016, 09:59:27 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Current standings as of April 10th:

1) Cleveland 56-24
2) Toronto 54-26
3) Atlanta 48-32
4) Boston 47-33
5) Miami 47-33
6) Charlotte 46-34
7) Indiana 43-37
8 ) Detroit 43-37

With Charlotte's loss today, they're out of the running for the 4th seed, and they're pretty much set for the sixth seed, unless they win out and Miami loses out. As for Miami, since we own the tiebreaker they must play better than us to overtake us in the standings.

We really need a win against Charlotte in Boston tomorrow. That will give us plenty of assurance and not necessarily make the game against Miami a do-or-die for the fourth seed. However, if we win tomorrow and Miami wins in Detroit on Tuesday (1-2 vs. them this season so it's not necessarily guaranteed), then we'll have to win against Miami on Wednesday in order to have home court advantage.

Here's the interesting thing about the standings: we're not necessarily guaranteed to face Cleveland in the second round. There's two different paths that would change the standings. Firstly, if Atlanta loses out (@Cleveland and @Washington) and we win out (vs Charlotte and vs Miami), then we would move up to the third seed. Also, though, secondly Cleveland hasn't secured the first seed yet, and Toronto is in range of surpassing them. With Toronto's win in New York tonight, if Cleveland loses out (vs Atlanta and vs Detroit) and Toronto wins out (vs 76ers and @ Brooklyn), then they can overtake the Cavs with the first seed due to owning the tiebreaker.

Both of those options are unlikely, though they're not as unlikely as you would think. Cleveland is 2-0 vs Atlanta, but both games were close with the last one going into OT. Cleveland is also only 1-2 vs Detroit this year and have struggled with their guards and Drummond down low. With Atlanta playing some top-notch ball right now, it's not inconceivable to see them lose both games, especially if Coach Lebron decides he values rest over seeding again. On the flip side, you'd expect Cleveland to beat Atlanta at home, and Washington just beat Charlotte today. There are reports that Wall should be back to play against Atlanta in Washington, and Atlanta lost to Washington a couple of weeks ago in Washington.

So, again, there's still a fairly significant chance that we can avoid Cleveland in the second round as long as we take care of business at home. Which route do you think is more likely - Raptors overtaking Cleveland for the one seed or Atlanta dropping to the four seed?

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #101 on: April 10, 2016, 10:07:43 PM »

Online SparzWizard

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So, again, there's still a fairly significant chance that we can avoid Cleveland in the second round as long as we take care of business at home. Which route do you think is more likely - Raptors overtaking Cleveland for the one seed or Atlanta dropping to the four seed?

The latter. But it looks unlikely we'll get the 3 seed if Atlanta wins out. Celtics don't control their destiny for the 3 seed.


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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #102 on: April 10, 2016, 10:15:01 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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So, again, there's still a fairly significant chance that we can avoid Cleveland in the second round as long as we take care of business at home. Which route do you think is more likely - Raptors overtaking Cleveland for the one seed or Atlanta dropping to the four seed?

The latter. But it looks unlikely we'll get the 3 seed if Atlanta wins out. Celtics don't control their destiny for the 3 seed.

Nope, we definitely lost our chance at controlling our own destiny last night in our loss. And if Atlanta wins either of the games then we can't get the third seed due to them owning the tiebreaker. So if Atlanta wins tomorrow, then we're hoping for Toronto to overtake Cleveland in the standings. If Cleveland wins tomorrow, then they clinch the first seed, and we're down to hoping that Washington can steal a game away from Atlanta at home.

I know statistically this isn't accurate given the differing probabilities of certain teams beating other teams and home versus away advantages, but in a way it's almost a 50/50 shot. Since Cleveland and Atlanta are playing each other, one of them has to lose the game, meaning we've already reached 50% of the losses that we need one of them to have. This means that as long as we take care of our remaining games at home (a good bet) or the Raptors take care of their remaining games (an excellent bet), then we have a 50/50 shot of either the Hawks or the Cavaliers losing their final game and giving us what we want.

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #103 on: April 11, 2016, 07:13:14 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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Go Cavs.

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #104 on: April 11, 2016, 07:31:30 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Go Cavs.

Man, I just don't know who to root for. Atlanta losing in Washington seems like a decent bet, but Detroit has already beat Cleveland twice this year. If Cleveland loses tonight, they might be just as likely to lose to Detroit as Atlanta is to Washington, given the respective matchups.

However, hoping for a Cavs loss also has the benefit of Toronto playing hard against Brooklyn in the final game of the season since it would still matter to them. If Cleveland clinches tonight, then they probably rest everybody against Brooklyn.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2016, 07:37:51 PM by jpotter33 »