Author Topic: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread  (Read 55692 times)

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Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« on: March 21, 2016, 10:55:57 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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I apologize if there's another thread out there like this already, but it looked like most of them dealt mainly with out draft picks rather than seeding.

The C's are in a dogfight with Charlotte, Atlanta, and Miami for the 3-6 spot in the East. After beating Orlando tonight and with Washington beating Atlanta, here are the current standings:

1) Cleveland 50-20
2) Toronto    48-21
3) Miami       40-29
4) Atlanta     41-30
5) Boston     41-30
6) Charlotte  40-30
7) Indiana     37-33
8 ) Detroit     37-34
9) Chicago    35-33

Some important notes:
1) Atlanta currently owns the tiebreaker against us, but we have a chance to tie the season series against them on this upcoming road trip.
2) We own the tiebreakers against both Miami and Charlotte, so they must have an outright better record than us to get the higher seed, unless it's a three-team tie, which has other standards for breaking the tie.
3) We play each of these three teams once more before the season ends (@ Atlanta, vs Charlotte, vs Miami), so we control our own destiny when it comes to seeding.

Here's the remaining schedule for each team:

Boston -

3/23 vs Toronto
3/26 @ Phoenix
3/28 @ Los Angeles Clippers
3/31 @ Portland
4/01 @ Golden State
4/03 @ Los Angeles Lakers
4/06 vs New Orleans
4/08 vs Milwaukee
4/09 @ Atlanta
4/11 vs Charlotte
4/13 vs Miami

Best case scenario - 9-2 (50-32)
Likely scenario - 7-4 or 6-5 (48-34 or 47-35)

Miami -

3/22 @ New Orleans
3/23 @ San Antonio
3/25 vs Orlando
3/28 vs Brooklyn
3/30 @ Los Angeles Lakers
4/01 @ Sacramento
4/02 @ Portland
4/05 vs Detroit
4/07 vs Chicago
4/08 @ Orlando
4/10 vs Orlando
4/12 @ Detroit
4/13 @ Boston

Best case scenario: 11-2 (51-31)
Likely scenario: 9-4 or 8-5 or 7-6 (49-33 or 48-34 or 47-35)

Atlanta -

3/23 @ Washington
3/25 vs Milwaukee
3/26 @ Detroit
3/28 @ Chicago
3/30 @ Toronto
4/01 vs Cleveland
4/05 vs Phoenix
4/07 vs Toronto
4/09 vs Boston
4/11 @ Cleveland
4/13 @ Washington

Best case scenario: 7-4 (48-34)
Likely scenario: 6-5 or 5-6 (47-35 or 46-36)

Charlotte -

3/22 @ Brooklyn
3/25 @ Detroit
3/26 @ Milwaukee
3/29 @ Philadelphia
4/01 vs Philadelphia
4/03 @ Cleveland
4/05 @ Toronto
4/06 @ New York
4/08 vs Brooklyn
4/10 @ Washington
4/11 @ Boston
4/13 vs Orlando

Best case scenario: 9-3 (49-33)
Likely scenario: 8-4 or 7-5 (48-34 or 47-35)

So how is everyone feeling about our chances of both A) getting back to the three spot, and B) having homecourt advantage in the first round? I think it will ultimately depend upon how healthy we stay and when Crowder comes back, but I think we can definitely still have home court advantage in the playoffs, even making it up to the three spot if Miami struggles with their playoff opponents that remain.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2016, 01:07:42 AM by jpotter33 »
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2016, 11:18:01 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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Looking at the schedules I think it will come down between the C's and Heat. Those two are just the more consistent of the four teams. I think it will take at least 48 wins to get the 3 seed. It's going to be close and may in fact come down to that last game of the season.

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2016, 11:48:17 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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The 538 model is predicting a 4 way tie at 47 wins between the Heat, Hornets, Celts, and Hawks.  They're also forecasting a 3 way tie for the 8th spot between the Wizards, Bulls and Pistons.

Looks like we're in for a wild finish!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2016, 11:59:32 PM »

Offline alldaboston

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I don't want Indiana Atlanta Cleveland or Toronto in round 1. I'll take whatever seed gets us away from them.
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2016, 12:10:26 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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The 538 model is predicting a 4 way tie at 47 wins between the Heat, Hornets, Celts, and Hawks.  They're also forecasting a 3 way tie for the 8th spot between the Wizards, Bulls and Pistons.

Looks like we're in for a wild finish!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

Well, that would screw us for getting the third seed, because division leader is the first criteria for a tiebreaker in that situation, I believe. However, I think we'd be good for fourth, because we're 5-2 versus the other three teams that we're tied with. It's going to be an interesting home stretch, that's for sure!
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2016, 12:19:17 AM »

Offline Celtic Fan Forever

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TP for the analysis, but just curious how you have Miami's best case scenario as 10-3 while likely doing as poorly as 7-6. The only game that looks like a definite loss is at San Antonio. I think they clearly have the easiest remaining schedule out of these teams.
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2016, 01:05:17 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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TP for the analysis, but just curious how you have Miami's best case scenario as 10-3 while likely doing as poorly as 7-6. The only game that looks like a definite loss is at San Antonio. I think they clearly have the easiest remaining schedule out of these teams.

Well, I put that there for two reasons. First, it's not a foregone conclusion that they won't be resting guys down the stretch. Both Wade and Deng have serious miles on their legs, so even fighting for this spot, they still might rest one or both of them a game or two, among others.

Second, they're 0-4 against us and Detroit, who they play three times in this stretch. Combining that with the San Antonio game, three Magic games (Magic will win one of them), a game in Portland, a game in New Orleans, and a late-season game against a Bulls team who is fighting for their playoff life, and it's not crazy to think that they can lose six games in this stretch. Further, they play Brooklyn once in that span, too, who they've lost to once this year already. Finally, 8 of their final 13 games are on the road, so it's not as crazy as you might think.

I mean, I definitely probably could have said that their best case scenario was better, such as 11-2. But I fully expect some rest games for Deng and Wade in there, so you never know.
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2016, 01:09:17 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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TP for the analysis, but just curious how you have Miami's best case scenario as 10-3 while likely doing as poorly as 7-6. The only game that looks like a definite loss is at San Antonio. I think they clearly have the easiest remaining schedule out of these teams.

Well, I put that there for two reasons. First, it's not a foregone conclusion that they won't be resting guys down the stretch. Both Wade and Deng have serious miles on their legs, so even fighting for this spot, they still might rest one or both of them a game or two, among others.

Second, they're 0-4 against us and Detroit, who they play three times in this stretch. Combining that with the San Antonio game, three Magic games (Magic will win one of them), a game in Portland, a game in New Orleans, and a late-season game against a Bulls team who is fighting for their playoff life, and it's not crazy to think that they can lose six games in this stretch. Further, they play Brooklyn once in that span, too, who they've lost to once this year already. Finally, 8 of their final 13 games are on the road, so it's not as crazy as you might think.

I mean, I definitely probably could have said that their best case scenario was better, such as 11-2. But I fully expect some rest games for Deng and Wade in there, so you never know.
Im not sure they will rest guys but  I think for really veteran teams like Miami (Wade-Bosh-Deng have an absurd amount of playoff experience) home court is not nearly as important as it is for a younger team like Boston or Charlotte.
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2016, 08:49:13 AM »

Offline jbpats

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I think of all the team's Charlotte has the easiest road from here on out, and last nights comeback win vs. San Antonio definitely helped fuel the fire. I had the game on NBA TV and was really hoping the Spurs would squeak it out.
A west coast trip to end the season for us is far from ideal, it's going to take a lot out of us to close out the season.. not to mention playing Toronto going into it is no small task. Miami also has to go to the West Coast but their trip is a tad easier IMO.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Charlotte finishes 3rd, Miami 4th, Boston 5th, Atlanta 6th.

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2016, 08:58:18 AM »

Offline JohnBoy65

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Great thread. It'll be fun to see how it plays out. 2 losses to the Nets and 1 to the Lakers this year really are coming back to bite us  :(

Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2016, 09:16:56 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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Well done post, jpotter. 

As long as they don't fall into a 4/5 matchup with ATL, I'm fine if they're 3 or 6.  Obviously, home court would be nice but I'd rather try & deal with MIA than a series with the Hawks which I think would be a real, grind it out series.   Then, on top of that, you'd have to face CLE in the next round.

Fine with playing MIA or CHA, though. 


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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2016, 09:28:45 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Toronto is tough.

On the road in Portland, LA(C) and Golden State will be very difficult.

On the road in Atlanta right at the end of the season where seeding will probably still be important for both teams will be tough also.

Charlotte and Miami are tough opponents right now, but the Celts will get to face them at home.


Phoenix, LA, New Orleans, Milwaukee (at home) should be easy wins.


I don't know, man.  Winning more than 5 of those matchups will be a challenge, unless some of these playoff teams end up resting guys despite the tight standings.
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2016, 09:53:45 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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Well done post, jpotter. 

As long as they don't fall into a 4/5 matchup with ATL, I'm fine if they're 3 or 6.  Obviously, home court would be nice but I'd rather try & deal with MIA than a series with the Hawks which I think would be a real, grind it out series.   Then, on top of that, you'd have to face CLE in the next round.

Fine with playing MIA or CHA, though.

Oh, for sure. I think we matchup extremely well with Miami and Charlotte, even though I think Miami would be Cleveland's biggest threat outside of Toronto. An ideal playoff seeding would be Charlotte versus Boston in 3/6 or 6/3 and Miami versus Atlanta in 4/5 or 5/4, where hopefully Miami could take Atlanta and then give Cleveland everything they have in the 2nd round.
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2016, 09:59:50 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Charlotte doesn't scare me that much in terms of their personnel, but they have a top 5 record since the All-Star break.  They've been excellent.
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Re: Celtics Playoff Seeding Thread
« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2016, 03:45:35 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Charlotte doesn't scare me that much in terms of their personnel, but they have a top 5 record since the All-Star break.  They've been excellent.

I absolutely hate their game. They play like the Warriors without the personnel to effectively play like that. We have success against them because of our outstanding perimeter defense and our ability to really guard the three point line. I think we'd pretty easily run through Charlotte.

Similarly, we're also a great matchup for the Heat due to our perimeter D that can contain much of their guard play/scoring. They also have absolutely no answer to IT defensively, which is always a measure of success for us (see last year's playoffs with Shumpert on IT).
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