Preparing for FA disappointment.

[slamtheking]

Boston is not a FA destination.  You can argue otherwise until your blue in the face, you wouldn't be the first to do so.  But thus far the facts speak for themselves.  If you think the franchise has changed radically enough in the past year to have completely changed that narrative for this offseason then I guess time will tell.  I just don't like the odds of your stance.

and what "facts" would those be?  The fact Boston hasn't had any cap space to chase top FA's?  Exactly  what top FA did they have the money to chase, try to sign and then lose out to someone else?  please, offer an example.

The BS about the weather, taxes and nightlife is a crock.  Top players that actually change teams as FAs are not doing it for those reasons, they're doing it to go to a better team with a better chance of winning a title.  2 recent cases from just last year -- Aldridge going to SA and Monroe going to Milwaukee. 

C's are in at the top of the list for being able to attract a top FA if they leave their current team.  C's have a top GM, a top coach and are 11 NBA-Caliber players deep on their roster and are fighting for the 3 seed in the conference without a superstar on the club.  Durant is unlikely to leave OKC this offseason but is suspected to be positioning himself for free agency the following year with Westbrook.  The biggest fish for us to go after is Horford.  if he leaves Atlanta (no sure thing yet but seems to be a fair possibility of occuring based on the current rumors) the C's are a top place for him to land.  Other teams will have $ just like the C's but extremely few of them can offer the other things mentioned here.

nothing wrong with making the improvements that you can make and then making a gameplan for the following year when free agency looks a lot more promising.

[saltlover]

Looking again at that breakdown, I'm actually even more optimistic. Boston's roster is the most complete and competitive among the teams with Starting Cap Space.

With nearly $13 mil -- without having to jettison any rostered players, cap holds, or draft picks -- Boston can potentially add a very good piece in FA before Ainge begins to work out trades for further roster improvements.

Right, and we practically speaking have much more cap space (or it won't matter).  Firstly, Spotrac, who's numbers this article used, is wrong about cap space, because they have a hold for Zoran Dragic, whom we released.  So that brings us up to $15 million.  Secondly, that $15 million includes cap holds and salaries for 17 players.  We can't sign any free agents (or it makes little sense to do so, I guess) with 17 players on the roster.  Getting down to 14 roster spots and cap holds probably means letting Zeller walk, drafting a foreign player, and releasing whichever of Amir and Jerebko you're replacing with a new free agent, or sending James Young away and giving up a 2nd rounder to do so (which is a trade I expect on draft night).  Say, for example, we ditch Young, let Zeller walk, and use our own 1st on a foreign player who has no effective cap hold -- that brings us up to $24.5 million in cap space with our current roster minus Young and Zeller, plus two lottery picks (as of today). 

It's very easy to see this team making some sort of improvement through free agency next summer, and the worst case scenario is we bring back virtually this same team with two high draft picks and a useful free agent signed to an Amir/JJ structured deal.  Meanwhile, we have all kinds of tradeable contracts and assets as Danny keeps waiting for the right deal.  And if he doesn't find one, it's still a team that challenges for 50 wins and gets yet another lottery pick from Brookyln, and then has even more cap room next summer ($60+ million with 10 players under contract already) to spend in what could be a monster free agency class.  That's about the worst-case scenario.  I can only get so disappointed thinking about this future.

[sawick48]

Please stop suggesting Durant.  He isn't coming here.  it's like all the Boogie talk.  Neither of those guys are realistic options.  Why would KD come here when it's not a better living situation than where he plays currently, he wouldn't have a team or any teammate as good as the ones he has currently, and he has no connection with the city of Boston as he would with a team like Washington?  Because of Stevens?  When's the last time a HC not named Pat Riley was responsible for creating a miracle in free agency luring a superstar to a team people didn't expect?  Or is it because of our great young core and all our assets?  Do you really think Durant cares about those?  The guy's current team perpetually wins 50-60 games a year where he already plays with one of the top 5 players in the league next to him.  He's not going to leave OKC to come to Boston, if he's going to leave based on team construction and to join a roster he thinks he can have more success with (than the success he currently has with the Thunder) he's going to GSW.

Boogie isn't coming either.  He's going to pout and whine his way to either Washington to play with Wall where they can chase Cal to be HC, or he goes to the Lakers for their pieces (especially with the rift Russell has been causing). 

The Cs don't get big time FAs.  The sooner everyone accepts that, the happier we'll all be.  "But they've never had cap room before!"  the entire league is going to have cap room this year, not to mention everyone who is a FA is going to be overpaid like crazy.  Get ready for guys like Kent Bazemore and Marvin Williams to ink deals that look something like $54M/4yrs.

Sorry for the pessimistic tone but reading the same hope linking the Cs to the biggest names year after year gets tiring.

Please.

the fact that we play in Boston is not preventing us from getting top FAs.

Id give us ~5 % chance at getting Durant, but you have to realize that we have a 20-30% chance at landing a top 2 pick and a top 2 pick + Smart + another first gets you a serious conversation about any player in this league even close to the trading block.

Smart+12+ Ingram/Simmons gets you close to Butler and Griffin, probably gets you Demarcus Cousins and is an overpay for Love or Okafor.

thus we have a 20-30% chance of having the assets to acquire half the guys you just listed.

Lastly, there is still much to be determined. Are you suggesting that if we make it to the ECF and push the Cavs to 6. (unlikely but not entirely out of the question if we can manage to avoid Cle till the ECF and Toronto slumps into the playoffs while we hit a hot streak, then we really wouldnt be able to attract FAs? we have a terrific young coach who could win COTY, we now have an all-star, we would be one of the best young teams in the league and we would be one of I believe 4 teams with the cap space to offer to max contracts and if we send out AB and Smart along with brooklyn '16 and are carefull with the contract math we could add two max guys AND whatever AB + Smart + top 5 pick nets us which would probably be a star of some magnitude.

Finally your point on Bazemore is pointless because anyone not getting a max isnt a star and thus has nothing to do with us getting a star, and Cousins isnt going to complain his way to Washington to play with Wall. I have seen nothing to suggest that.

Plus we can top Washington's offer easily. Beal is an FA and their pick is not top 5 and all they have after that is otto porter and kelly Oubre. Advantage Celtics.

Beal is an RFA, much different than a FA.  and the 2 guard spot is in such awful shape that with all the time Beal has missed, he's still seen as a top 5 2guard in the league. Whereas they could package Beal, Otto, and 2 1sts to get any target they would try and trade for (Boogie).  Not to mention you conveniently glossed over the point that a guy like Boogie is going to be dealt to a place he approves of, not necessarily to a place that the owners choose.  They've already shown him a world of deference in his time there, and if they decide to deal him at all it certainly wouldn't shock anybody to see him pull the "i'll sit out if i'm traded to X" card. People can pretend front offices have all the leverage in a trade when players are under contract, but the reality is it depends on the player.

As far as "are you saying if we push the Cavs..." yes.  that's exactly what I'm saying.  I said it last year too when all the wide eyed people around here had dreams of us landing a super duper star via free agency or even trade, and we landed Amir.  A point which has a ton to do with the Bazemore point because those are the types of FAs we're going to end up getting.  Decent talents that we have to overpay for. 

And your point about max contracts is meaningless and is actually in fact perhaps detrimental to the Celtics, in an offseason where there are only 2 guys (Horford and Derozan) who will be worthy of max deals.  Only 1 of which the Cs have any chance at in the first place (though personally I think Horford either stays in Atl or signs with Orlando).  So your point is that we can offer a max deal to a guy who doesn't deserve a max deal.  Yay?  We're going to overpay any FA to come here as it is, I'd rather us not use max room to do so for a mediocre guy.

Boston is not a FA destination.  You can argue otherwise until your blue in the face, you wouldn't be the first to do so.  But thus far the facts speak for themselves.  If you think the franchise has changed radically enough in the past year to have completely changed that narrative for this offseason then I guess time will tell.  I just don't like the odds of your stance.

Ok first to address your point on Cousins. You say stars like Cousins get to pick a destination. if you believe this then I point at Garnett and your whole "stars don't pick Boston" argument goes right out the window so let's stick to Free Agents. Plus I think top 5 + Smart + first still tops anything washington puts on the table even if they do some unprecedented sign and trade stuff

On max contracts. You are right. Ok guys will get overpaid. However you point to Amir which is a brilliant structured contract and a part of why I'm not worried about DA making a mistake and commuting long term big money to a guy like Marving Williams.

Lastly and hopefully the piece where we can bridge the gap our opinions is the idea that there aren't many true max guys so we aren't likely to get them.

I agree. KD is the only no question max guy out there and [dang] near everyone has cap space plus his current situation is good so I'd say there's only about a 20% chance of him leaving OKC (depends a lot on playoffs this year).

So once he leaves OKC I'd put us right behind GSW as the most attractive destination.

Either way we are unlikely to get KD, but so is NYK and Brooklyn and LA and SAS and Toronto. There is no team likely this offseason to sign a legit max guy from another team.

This means you can't count on FA just like you can't count on winning the draft lottery. However this does not mean that we can't do it.

The last two times we had a top 5 spot in the lotto we didn't get a top two or top 3 pick but that doesn't mean "the celtics don't get top lotto picks" it means you can't count on top lotto picks but it is still good to be in position to nab a top lotto pick.

I don't count on getting KD or Horford. It is unlikely that we get either but I reject the idea that this means we don't have a chance at FAs. We do.

KG is your counter argument?  The guy that said no to Boston twice before finally relenting and saying yes only after we got our 2nd star in Ray?  Because I'd say that helps my argument more than hurts it.  Did he eventually decide to come here?  Obviously, and we're forever grateful for that and for Danny pulling it off.  but he wasn't coming here unless he had the star power to come here with.  He said no when it was just Pierce.  Twice.  That's how attractive Boston is to big stars.

Everyone knows the hardest star of any 'big 3' to get is the first one.  and Boston doesn't have that yet.  I understand the trade market and FA market are 2 different animals, and I'm not saying Boston can't trade for a star.  I fully believe they have a shot at Butler.  I just don't think we'll be in on Boogie, and I think ppl claiming that KD is a possibility are suffering from a fever dream.  My ultimate point is, if you think getting our first of any 'big 3' is going to come from us just signing a top tier FA, it isn't going to happen.  I could be wrong, I'd love to be wrong, I just don't think I am.



Also, wasn't your comment but to address Amir's deal, the "brilliantly strutctured" contract isn't the point at all.  It was still an overpay for him.  Not an awful one, and clearly not one that hurt the team in any way, but an overpay none the less.  Everyone around here last year had stars in their eyes about the types of FAs Danny and CBS could lure, and we ended up with Amir.  If you think that wasn't a massive disappointment at the time, I don't know what to tell you.  Guys like Amir are the types of FAs we're going to be dealing with, certainly at least or until we're able to acquire headline names via trade.  The middle of the road, slightly above average types that are going to come at a relatively steep price compared to their talent level.

[Ilikesports17]

Please stop suggesting Durant.  He isn't coming here.  it's like all the Boogie talk.  Neither of those guys are realistic options.  Why would KD come here when it's not a better living situation than where he plays currently, he wouldn't have a team or any teammate as good as the ones he has currently, and he has no connection with the city of Boston as he would with a team like Washington?  Because of Stevens?  When's the last time a HC not named Pat Riley was responsible for creating a miracle in free agency luring a superstar to a team people didn't expect?  Or is it because of our great young core and all our assets?  Do you really think Durant cares about those?  The guy's current team perpetually wins 50-60 games a year where he already plays with one of the top 5 players in the league next to him.  He's not going to leave OKC to come to Boston, if he's going to leave based on team construction and to join a roster he thinks he can have more success with (than the success he currently has with the Thunder) he's going to GSW.

Boogie isn't coming either.  He's going to pout and whine his way to either Washington to play with Wall where they can chase Cal to be HC, or he goes to the Lakers for their pieces (especially with the rift Russell has been causing). 

The Cs don't get big time FAs.  The sooner everyone accepts that, the happier we'll all be.  "But they've never had cap room before!"  the entire league is going to have cap room this year, not to mention everyone who is a FA is going to be overpaid like crazy.  Get ready for guys like Kent Bazemore and Marvin Williams to ink deals that look something like $54M/4yrs.

Sorry for the pessimistic tone but reading the same hope linking the Cs to the biggest names year after year gets tiring.

Please.

the fact that we play in Boston is not preventing us from getting top FAs.

Id give us ~5 % chance at getting Durant, but you have to realize that we have a 20-30% chance at landing a top 2 pick and a top 2 pick + Smart + another first gets you a serious conversation about any player in this league even close to the trading block.

Smart+12+ Ingram/Simmons gets you close to Butler and Griffin, probably gets you Demarcus Cousins and is an overpay for Love or Okafor.

thus we have a 20-30% chance of having the assets to acquire half the guys you just listed.

Lastly, there is still much to be determined. Are you suggesting that if we make it to the ECF and push the Cavs to 6. (unlikely but not entirely out of the question if we can manage to avoid Cle till the ECF and Toronto slumps into the playoffs while we hit a hot streak, then we really wouldnt be able to attract FAs? we have a terrific young coach who could win COTY, we now have an all-star, we would be one of the best young teams in the league and we would be one of I believe 4 teams with the cap space to offer to max contracts and if we send out AB and Smart along with brooklyn '16 and are carefull with the contract math we could add two max guys AND whatever AB + Smart + top 5 pick nets us which would probably be a star of some magnitude.

Finally your point on Bazemore is pointless because anyone not getting a max isnt a star and thus has nothing to do with us getting a star, and Cousins isnt going to complain his way to Washington to play with Wall. I have seen nothing to suggest that.

Plus we can top Washington's offer easily. Beal is an FA and their pick is not top 5 and all they have after that is otto porter and kelly Oubre. Advantage Celtics.

Beal is an RFA, much different than a FA.  and the 2 guard spot is in such awful shape that with all the time Beal has missed, he's still seen as a top 5 2guard in the league. Whereas they could package Beal, Otto, and 2 1sts to get any target they would try and trade for (Boogie).  Not to mention you conveniently glossed over the point that a guy like Boogie is going to be dealt to a place he approves of, not necessarily to a place that the owners choose.  They've already shown him a world of deference in his time there, and if they decide to deal him at all it certainly wouldn't shock anybody to see him pull the "i'll sit out if i'm traded to X" card. People can pretend front offices have all the leverage in a trade when players are under contract, but the reality is it depends on the player.

As far as "are you saying if we push the Cavs..." yes.  that's exactly what I'm saying.  I said it last year too when all the wide eyed people around here had dreams of us landing a super duper star via free agency or even trade, and we landed Amir.  A point which has a ton to do with the Bazemore point because those are the types of FAs we're going to end up getting.  Decent talents that we have to overpay for. 

And your point about max contracts is meaningless and is actually in fact perhaps detrimental to the Celtics, in an offseason where there are only 2 guys (Horford and Derozan) who will be worthy of max deals.  Only 1 of which the Cs have any chance at in the first place (though personally I think Horford either stays in Atl or signs with Orlando).  So your point is that we can offer a max deal to a guy who doesn't deserve a max deal.  Yay?  We're going to overpay any FA to come here as it is, I'd rather us not use max room to do so for a mediocre guy.

Boston is not a FA destination.  You can argue otherwise until your blue in the face, you wouldn't be the first to do so.  But thus far the facts speak for themselves.  If you think the franchise has changed radically enough in the past year to have completely changed that narrative for this offseason then I guess time will tell.  I just don't like the odds of your stance.

Ok first to address your point on Cousins. You say stars like Cousins get to pick a destination. if you believe this then I point at Garnett and your whole "stars don't pick Boston" argument goes right out the window so let's stick to Free Agents. Plus I think top 5 + Smart + first still tops anything washington puts on the table even if they do some unprecedented sign and trade stuff

On max contracts. You are right. Ok guys will get overpaid. However you point to Amir which is a brilliant structured contract and a part of why I'm not worried about DA making a mistake and commuting long term big money to a guy like Marving Williams.

Lastly and hopefully the piece where we can bridge the gap our opinions is the idea that there aren't many true max guys so we aren't likely to get them.

I agree. KD is the only no question max guy out there and [dang] near everyone has cap space plus his current situation is good so I'd say there's only about a 20% chance of him leaving OKC (depends a lot on playoffs this year).

So once he leaves OKC I'd put us right behind GSW as the most attractive destination.

Either way we are unlikely to get KD, but so is NYK and Brooklyn and LA and SAS and Toronto. There is no team likely this offseason to sign a legit max guy from another team.

This means you can't count on FA just like you can't count on winning the draft lottery. However this does not mean that we can't do it.

The last two times we had a top 5 spot in the lotto we didn't get a top two or top 3 pick but that doesn't mean "the celtics don't get top lotto picks" it means you can't count on top lotto picks but it is still good to be in position to nab a top lotto pick.

I don't count on getting KD or Horford. It is unlikely that we get either but I reject the idea that this means we don't have a chance at FAs. We do.

KG is your counter argument?  The guy that said no to Boston twice before finally relenting and saying yes only after we got our 2nd star in Ray?  Because I'd say that helps my argument more than hurts it.  Did he eventually decide to come here?  Obviously, and we're forever grateful for that and for Danny pulling it off.  but he wasn't coming here unless he had the star power to come here with.  He said no when it was just Pierce.  Twice.  That's how attractive Boston is to big stars.

Everyone knows the hardest star of any 'big 3' to get is the first one.  and Boston doesn't have that yet.  I understand the trade market and FA market are 2 different animals, and I'm not saying Boston can't trade for a star.  I fully believe they have a shot at Butler.  I just don't think we'll be in on Boogie, and I think ppl claiming that KD is a possibility are suffering from a fever dream.  My ultimate point is, if you think getting our first of any 'big 3' is going to come from us just signing a top tier FA, it isn't going to happen.  I could be wrong, I'd love to be wrong, I just don't think I am.



Also, wasn't your comment but to address Amir's deal, the "brilliantly strutctured" contract isn't the point at all.  It was still an overpay for him.  Not an awful one, and clearly not one that hurt the team in any way, but an overpay none the less.  Everyone around here last year had stars in their eyes about the types of FAs Danny and CBS could lure, and we ended up with Amir.  If you think that wasn't a massive disappointment at the time, I don't know what to tell you.  Guys like Amir are the types of FAs we're going to be dealing with, certainly at least or until we're able to acquire headline names via trade.  The middle of the road, slightly above average types that are going to come at a relatively steep price compared to their talent level.

Disagree on Amir. We overpaid in terms of dollar amount in order to get a two year contract with a non-garunteed 2d year.

On Cousins, if he becomes available we have as good a shot as any to get him. Think you are wrong that we "won't be in on" him. And he doesn't have the leverage guys like Love had because of his contract.

I agree that no superstar is going to come viaFA without the first star being there already. However this is VERY different from the Boston can't sign star narrative you pedal.

We have the assets to potentially trade for a star on draft night which would put us realistically in the KD hunt. Even if that fails, signing Horford which Ainge supposedly believes we could do would give us two 3rd tier stars which would put us on the periphery of KDs radar.

I've yet to see anyone post that we could lure KD without either acquiring Horford or another star before.

[sawick48]

Please stop suggesting Durant.  He isn't coming here.  it's like all the Boogie talk.  Neither of those guys are realistic options.  Why would KD come here when it's not a better living situation than where he plays currently, he wouldn't have a team or any teammate as good as the ones he has currently, and he has no connection with the city of Boston as he would with a team like Washington?  Because of Stevens?  When's the last time a HC not named Pat Riley was responsible for creating a miracle in free agency luring a superstar to a team people didn't expect?  Or is it because of our great young core and all our assets?  Do you really think Durant cares about those?  The guy's current team perpetually wins 50-60 games a year where he already plays with one of the top 5 players in the league next to him.  He's not going to leave OKC to come to Boston, if he's going to leave based on team construction and to join a roster he thinks he can have more success with (than the success he currently has with the Thunder) he's going to GSW.

Boogie isn't coming either.  He's going to pout and whine his way to either Washington to play with Wall where they can chase Cal to be HC, or he goes to the Lakers for their pieces (especially with the rift Russell has been causing). 

The Cs don't get big time FAs.  The sooner everyone accepts that, the happier we'll all be.  "But they've never had cap room before!"  the entire league is going to have cap room this year, not to mention everyone who is a FA is going to be overpaid like crazy.  Get ready for guys like Kent Bazemore and Marvin Williams to ink deals that look something like $54M/4yrs.

Sorry for the pessimistic tone but reading the same hope linking the Cs to the biggest names year after year gets tiring.

Please.

the fact that we play in Boston is not preventing us from getting top FAs.

Id give us ~5 % chance at getting Durant, but you have to realize that we have a 20-30% chance at landing a top 2 pick and a top 2 pick + Smart + another first gets you a serious conversation about any player in this league even close to the trading block.

Smart+12+ Ingram/Simmons gets you close to Butler and Griffin, probably gets you Demarcus Cousins and is an overpay for Love or Okafor.

thus we have a 20-30% chance of having the assets to acquire half the guys you just listed.

Lastly, there is still much to be determined. Are you suggesting that if we make it to the ECF and push the Cavs to 6. (unlikely but not entirely out of the question if we can manage to avoid Cle till the ECF and Toronto slumps into the playoffs while we hit a hot streak, then we really wouldnt be able to attract FAs? we have a terrific young coach who could win COTY, we now have an all-star, we would be one of the best young teams in the league and we would be one of I believe 4 teams with the cap space to offer to max contracts and if we send out AB and Smart along with brooklyn '16 and are carefull with the contract math we could add two max guys AND whatever AB + Smart + top 5 pick nets us which would probably be a star of some magnitude.

Finally your point on Bazemore is pointless because anyone not getting a max isnt a star and thus has nothing to do with us getting a star, and Cousins isnt going to complain his way to Washington to play with Wall. I have seen nothing to suggest that.

Plus we can top Washington's offer easily. Beal is an FA and their pick is not top 5 and all they have after that is otto porter and kelly Oubre. Advantage Celtics.

Beal is an RFA, much different than a FA.  and the 2 guard spot is in such awful shape that with all the time Beal has missed, he's still seen as a top 5 2guard in the league. Whereas they could package Beal, Otto, and 2 1sts to get any target they would try and trade for (Boogie).  Not to mention you conveniently glossed over the point that a guy like Boogie is going to be dealt to a place he approves of, not necessarily to a place that the owners choose.  They've already shown him a world of deference in his time there, and if they decide to deal him at all it certainly wouldn't shock anybody to see him pull the "i'll sit out if i'm traded to X" card. People can pretend front offices have all the leverage in a trade when players are under contract, but the reality is it depends on the player.

As far as "are you saying if we push the Cavs..." yes.  that's exactly what I'm saying.  I said it last year too when all the wide eyed people around here had dreams of us landing a super duper star via free agency or even trade, and we landed Amir.  A point which has a ton to do with the Bazemore point because those are the types of FAs we're going to end up getting.  Decent talents that we have to overpay for. 

And your point about max contracts is meaningless and is actually in fact perhaps detrimental to the Celtics, in an offseason where there are only 2 guys (Horford and Derozan) who will be worthy of max deals.  Only 1 of which the Cs have any chance at in the first place (though personally I think Horford either stays in Atl or signs with Orlando).  So your point is that we can offer a max deal to a guy who doesn't deserve a max deal.  Yay?  We're going to overpay any FA to come here as it is, I'd rather us not use max room to do so for a mediocre guy.

Boston is not a FA destination.  You can argue otherwise until your blue in the face, you wouldn't be the first to do so.  But thus far the facts speak for themselves.  If you think the franchise has changed radically enough in the past year to have completely changed that narrative for this offseason then I guess time will tell.  I just don't like the odds of your stance.

Ok first to address your point on Cousins. You say stars like Cousins get to pick a destination. if you believe this then I point at Garnett and your whole "stars don't pick Boston" argument goes right out the window so let's stick to Free Agents. Plus I think top 5 + Smart + first still tops anything washington puts on the table even if they do some unprecedented sign and trade stuff

On max contracts. You are right. Ok guys will get overpaid. However you point to Amir which is a brilliant structured contract and a part of why I'm not worried about DA making a mistake and commuting long term big money to a guy like Marving Williams.

Lastly and hopefully the piece where we can bridge the gap our opinions is the idea that there aren't many true max guys so we aren't likely to get them.

I agree. KD is the only no question max guy out there and [dang] near everyone has cap space plus his current situation is good so I'd say there's only about a 20% chance of him leaving OKC (depends a lot on playoffs this year).

So once he leaves OKC I'd put us right behind GSW as the most attractive destination.

Either way we are unlikely to get KD, but so is NYK and Brooklyn and LA and SAS and Toronto. There is no team likely this offseason to sign a legit max guy from another team.

This means you can't count on FA just like you can't count on winning the draft lottery. However this does not mean that we can't do it.

The last two times we had a top 5 spot in the lotto we didn't get a top two or top 3 pick but that doesn't mean "the celtics don't get top lotto picks" it means you can't count on top lotto picks but it is still good to be in position to nab a top lotto pick.

I don't count on getting KD or Horford. It is unlikely that we get either but I reject the idea that this means we don't have a chance at FAs. We do.

KG is your counter argument?  The guy that said no to Boston twice before finally relenting and saying yes only after we got our 2nd star in Ray?  Because I'd say that helps my argument more than hurts it.  Did he eventually decide to come here?  Obviously, and we're forever grateful for that and for Danny pulling it off.  but he wasn't coming here unless he had the star power to come here with.  He said no when it was just Pierce.  Twice.  That's how attractive Boston is to big stars.

Everyone knows the hardest star of any 'big 3' to get is the first one.  and Boston doesn't have that yet.  I understand the trade market and FA market are 2 different animals, and I'm not saying Boston can't trade for a star.  I fully believe they have a shot at Butler.  I just don't think we'll be in on Boogie, and I think ppl claiming that KD is a possibility are suffering from a fever dream.  My ultimate point is, if you think getting our first of any 'big 3' is going to come from us just signing a top tier FA, it isn't going to happen.  I could be wrong, I'd love to be wrong, I just don't think I am.



Also, wasn't your comment but to address Amir's deal, the "brilliantly strutctured" contract isn't the point at all.  It was still an overpay for him.  Not an awful one, and clearly not one that hurt the team in any way, but an overpay none the less.  Everyone around here last year had stars in their eyes about the types of FAs Danny and CBS could lure, and we ended up with Amir.  If you think that wasn't a massive disappointment at the time, I don't know what to tell you.  Guys like Amir are the types of FAs we're going to be dealing with, certainly at least or until we're able to acquire headline names via trade.  The middle of the road, slightly above average types that are going to come at a relatively steep price compared to their talent level.

Disagree on Amir. We overpaid in terms of dollar amount in order to get a two year contract with a non-garunteed 2d year.

On Cousins, if he becomes available we have as good a shot as any to get him. Think you are wrong that we "won't be in on" him. And he doesn't have the leverage guys like Love had because of his contract.

I agree that no superstar is going to come viaFA without the first star being there already. However this is VERY different from the Boston can't sign star narrative you pedal.

We have the assets to potentially trade for a star on draft night which would put us realistically in the KD hunt. Even if that fails, signing Horford which Ainge supposedly believes we could do would give us two 3rd tier stars which would put us on the periphery of KDs radar.

I've yet to see anyone post that we could lure KD without either acquiring Horford or another star before.

And I've yet to see the logic in why in the world KD would come here to play with Horford when he's already having so much success winning with Westbrook?  It makes no logical sense.  And again I'll say, if the argument is "a team that can win" then he'd go to GS.  If the argument is "to escape the west" why wouldn't he go home to play with Wall? 

Not sure how anything I've said has backed off the "Boston can't sign a star narrative."  Because, Boston can't sign a star.  Trade for one?  Again, it's possible.  But it won't be Boogie or KD.



I'd also like to point out that I really don't think this has devolved into a p---ing contest yet, which I appreciate.  It's stayed above the belt and the only reason I keep prolonging the back and forth is because I feel we both have new points we bring up that each one of us can counter.  Hasn't reached the dick measuring contest state yet like many internet dialogues tend to all too quickly so just wanted to say that for anyone else reading.  If you think we've reached 'beating a dead horse' status yet, my apologies, I just (and this may shock you) disagree lol

[boscel33]

Well I see a lot of talk about signing Horford, Barnes, and some maybes on KD. But based on this last off season and recent FA history  C's chances to add upgraded talent via FA looks bleak.

First the full list of possible Free Agents.
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/

Now the $ situation around the league.
http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/241166/The-Maximum-Available-2016-Cap-Space-For-All-30-NBA-Teams-Version-20

It's going to be a huge over pay to get mediocre talent or keep RFA because of the money available for so many teams. About 3/4 of the league can possibly sign a max FA.

With all the draft picks C's are sitting on things may turn out for the best. Instead of overpaying bench guys or late rotation players the C's can actually use them to fill the roster and for a second year punt in FA.

I've been in on the Barnes conversation and since he's restricted, the C's only really need to work out a trade with GSW.  I think Horford is coming here, so a Horford/Barnes off season is a success IMO.

[Ilikesports17]

Please stop suggesting Durant.  He isn't coming here.  it's like all the Boogie talk.  Neither of those guys are realistic options.  Why would KD come here when it's not a better living situation than where he plays currently, he wouldn't have a team or any teammate as good as the ones he has currently, and he has no connection with the city of Boston as he would with a team like Washington?  Because of Stevens?  When's the last time a HC not named Pat Riley was responsible for creating a miracle in free agency luring a superstar to a team people didn't expect?  Or is it because of our great young core and all our assets?  Do you really think Durant cares about those?  The guy's current team perpetually wins 50-60 games a year where he already plays with one of the top 5 players in the league next to him.  He's not going to leave OKC to come to Boston, if he's going to leave based on team construction and to join a roster he thinks he can have more success with (than the success he currently has with the Thunder) he's going to GSW.

Boogie isn't coming either.  He's going to pout and whine his way to either Washington to play with Wall where they can chase Cal to be HC, or he goes to the Lakers for their pieces (especially with the rift Russell has been causing). 

The Cs don't get big time FAs.  The sooner everyone accepts that, the happier we'll all be.  "But they've never had cap room before!"  the entire league is going to have cap room this year, not to mention everyone who is a FA is going to be overpaid like crazy.  Get ready for guys like Kent Bazemore and Marvin Williams to ink deals that look something like $54M/4yrs.

Sorry for the pessimistic tone but reading the same hope linking the Cs to the biggest names year after year gets tiring.

Please.

the fact that we play in Boston is not preventing us from getting top FAs.

Id give us ~5 % chance at getting Durant, but you have to realize that we have a 20-30% chance at landing a top 2 pick and a top 2 pick + Smart + another first gets you a serious conversation about any player in this league even close to the trading block.

Smart+12+ Ingram/Simmons gets you close to Butler and Griffin, probably gets you Demarcus Cousins and is an overpay for Love or Okafor.

thus we have a 20-30% chance of having the assets to acquire half the guys you just listed.

Lastly, there is still much to be determined. Are you suggesting that if we make it to the ECF and push the Cavs to 6. (unlikely but not entirely out of the question if we can manage to avoid Cle till the ECF and Toronto slumps into the playoffs while we hit a hot streak, then we really wouldnt be able to attract FAs? we have a terrific young coach who could win COTY, we now have an all-star, we would be one of the best young teams in the league and we would be one of I believe 4 teams with the cap space to offer to max contracts and if we send out AB and Smart along with brooklyn '16 and are carefull with the contract math we could add two max guys AND whatever AB + Smart + top 5 pick nets us which would probably be a star of some magnitude.

Finally your point on Bazemore is pointless because anyone not getting a max isnt a star and thus has nothing to do with us getting a star, and Cousins isnt going to complain his way to Washington to play with Wall. I have seen nothing to suggest that.

Plus we can top Washington's offer easily. Beal is an FA and their pick is not top 5 and all they have after that is otto porter and kelly Oubre. Advantage Celtics.

Beal is an RFA, much different than a FA.  and the 2 guard spot is in such awful shape that with all the time Beal has missed, he's still seen as a top 5 2guard in the league. Whereas they could package Beal, Otto, and 2 1sts to get any target they would try and trade for (Boogie).  Not to mention you conveniently glossed over the point that a guy like Boogie is going to be dealt to a place he approves of, not necessarily to a place that the owners choose.  They've already shown him a world of deference in his time there, and if they decide to deal him at all it certainly wouldn't shock anybody to see him pull the "i'll sit out if i'm traded to X" card. People can pretend front offices have all the leverage in a trade when players are under contract, but the reality is it depends on the player.

As far as "are you saying if we push the Cavs..." yes.  that's exactly what I'm saying.  I said it last year too when all the wide eyed people around here had dreams of us landing a super duper star via free agency or even trade, and we landed Amir.  A point which has a ton to do with the Bazemore point because those are the types of FAs we're going to end up getting.  Decent talents that we have to overpay for. 

And your point about max contracts is meaningless and is actually in fact perhaps detrimental to the Celtics, in an offseason where there are only 2 guys (Horford and Derozan) who will be worthy of max deals.  Only 1 of which the Cs have any chance at in the first place (though personally I think Horford either stays in Atl or signs with Orlando).  So your point is that we can offer a max deal to a guy who doesn't deserve a max deal.  Yay?  We're going to overpay any FA to come here as it is, I'd rather us not use max room to do so for a mediocre guy.

Boston is not a FA destination.  You can argue otherwise until your blue in the face, you wouldn't be the first to do so.  But thus far the facts speak for themselves.  If you think the franchise has changed radically enough in the past year to have completely changed that narrative for this offseason then I guess time will tell.  I just don't like the odds of your stance.

Ok first to address your point on Cousins. You say stars like Cousins get to pick a destination. if you believe this then I point at Garnett and your whole "stars don't pick Boston" argument goes right out the window so let's stick to Free Agents. Plus I think top 5 + Smart + first still tops anything washington puts on the table even if they do some unprecedented sign and trade stuff

On max contracts. You are right. Ok guys will get overpaid. However you point to Amir which is a brilliant structured contract and a part of why I'm not worried about DA making a mistake and commuting long term big money to a guy like Marving Williams.

Lastly and hopefully the piece where we can bridge the gap our opinions is the idea that there aren't many true max guys so we aren't likely to get them.

I agree. KD is the only no question max guy out there and [dang] near everyone has cap space plus his current situation is good so I'd say there's only about a 20% chance of him leaving OKC (depends a lot on playoffs this year).

So once he leaves OKC I'd put us right behind GSW as the most attractive destination.

Either way we are unlikely to get KD, but so is NYK and Brooklyn and LA and SAS and Toronto. There is no team likely this offseason to sign a legit max guy from another team.

This means you can't count on FA just like you can't count on winning the draft lottery. However this does not mean that we can't do it.

The last two times we had a top 5 spot in the lotto we didn't get a top two or top 3 pick but that doesn't mean "the celtics don't get top lotto picks" it means you can't count on top lotto picks but it is still good to be in position to nab a top lotto pick.

I don't count on getting KD or Horford. It is unlikely that we get either but I reject the idea that this means we don't have a chance at FAs. We do.

KG is your counter argument?  The guy that said no to Boston twice before finally relenting and saying yes only after we got our 2nd star in Ray?  Because I'd say that helps my argument more than hurts it.  Did he eventually decide to come here?  Obviously, and we're forever grateful for that and for Danny pulling it off.  but he wasn't coming here unless he had the star power to come here with.  He said no when it was just Pierce.  Twice.  That's how attractive Boston is to big stars.

Everyone knows the hardest star of any 'big 3' to get is the first one.  and Boston doesn't have that yet.  I understand the trade market and FA market are 2 different animals, and I'm not saying Boston can't trade for a star.  I fully believe they have a shot at Butler.  I just don't think we'll be in on Boogie, and I think ppl claiming that KD is a possibility are suffering from a fever dream.  My ultimate point is, if you think getting our first of any 'big 3' is going to come from us just signing a top tier FA, it isn't going to happen.  I could be wrong, I'd love to be wrong, I just don't think I am.



Also, wasn't your comment but to address Amir's deal, the "brilliantly strutctured" contract isn't the point at all.  It was still an overpay for him.  Not an awful one, and clearly not one that hurt the team in any way, but an overpay none the less.  Everyone around here last year had stars in their eyes about the types of FAs Danny and CBS could lure, and we ended up with Amir.  If you think that wasn't a massive disappointment at the time, I don't know what to tell you.  Guys like Amir are the types of FAs we're going to be dealing with, certainly at least or until we're able to acquire headline names via trade.  The middle of the road, slightly above average types that are going to come at a relatively steep price compared to their talent level.

Disagree on Amir. We overpaid in terms of dollar amount in order to get a two year contract with a non-garunteed 2d year.

On Cousins, if he becomes available we have as good a shot as any to get him. Think you are wrong that we "won't be in on" him. And he doesn't have the leverage guys like Love had because of his contract.

I agree that no superstar is going to come viaFA without the first star being there already. However this is VERY different from the Boston can't sign star narrative you pedal.

We have the assets to potentially trade for a star on draft night which would put us realistically in the KD hunt. Even if that fails, signing Horford which Ainge supposedly believes we could do would give us two 3rd tier stars which would put us on the periphery of KDs radar.

I've yet to see anyone post that we could lure KD without either acquiring Horford or another star before.

And I've yet to see the logic in why in the world KD would come here to play with Horford when he's already having so much success winning with Westbrook?  It makes no logical sense.  And again I'll say, if the argument is "a team that can win" then he'd go to GS.  If the argument is "to escape the west" why wouldn't he go home to play with Wall? 

Not sure how anything I've said has backed off the "Boston can't sign a star narrative."  Because, Boston can't sign a star.  Trade for one?  Again, it's possible.  But it won't be Boogie or KD.



I'd also like to point out that I really don't think this has devolved into a p---ing contest yet, which I appreciate.  It's stayed above the belt and the only reason I keep prolonging the back and forth is because I feel we both have new points we bring up that each one of us can counter.  Hasn't reached the dick measuring contest state yet like many internet dialogues tend to all too quickly so just wanted to say that for anyone else reading.  If you think we've reached 'beating a dead horse' status yet, my apologies, I just (and this may shock you) disagree lol

Sure. Felt this discussion was valuable as well. We obviously disagree, but I think we ultimately agree that KD is unlikely to come here in FA and that is the crux of the discussion. you say impossible I say unlikely.

I also think we can agree that we both hope you are wrong.

[wdleehi]

I sort of disagree with the one or the other argument.


The Celtics could both sign a significant FA and still draft with the high pick.   


While it might make more sense to do a trade for a second top player to go along with a signed piece, it still comes down to what is available and what they are actually worth.

[spikelovetheCelts]

Well I see a lot of talk about signing Horford, Barnes, and some maybes on KD. But based on this last off season and recent FA history  C's chances to add upgraded talent via FA looks bleak.

First the full list of possible Free Agents.
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/

Now the $ situation around the league.
http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/241166/The-Maximum-Available-2016-Cap-Space-For-All-30-NBA-Teams-Version-20

It's going to be a huge over pay to get mediocre talent or keep RFA because of the money available for so many teams. About 3/4 of the league can possibly sign a max FA.

With all the draft picks C's are sitting on things may turn out for the best. Instead of overpaying bench guys or late rotation players the C's can actually use them to fill the roster and for a second year punt in FA.

I've been in on the Barnes conversation and since he's restricted, the C's only really need to work out a trade with GSW.  I think Horford is coming here, so a Horford/Barnes off season is a success IMO.

Winning last night helps our case for Barnes. Holford is a big question mark but we will at least have a meeting with him i am sure.

[Chief]

I think this offsets on will truly prove or dismiss the Boston Celtic fa myth.

Luckily if noone wants to come freely, we have enough ammo to capture some great players KG and ray allen style.

[Surferdad]

Well I see a lot of talk about signing Horford, Barnes, and some maybes on KD. But based on this last off season and recent FA history  C's chances to add upgraded talent via FA looks bleak.

First the full list of possible Free Agents.
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/

Now the $ situation around the league.
http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/241166/The-Maximum-Available-2016-Cap-Space-For-All-30-NBA-Teams-Version-20

It's going to be a huge over pay to get mediocre talent or keep RFA because of the money available for so many teams. About 3/4 of the league can possibly sign a max FA.

With all the draft picks C's are sitting on things may turn out for the best. Instead of overpaying bench guys or late rotation players the C's can actually use them to fill the roster and for a second year punt in FA.

I've been in on the Barnes conversation and since he's restricted, the C's only really need to work out a trade with GSW.  I think Horford is coming here, so a Horford/Barnes off season is a success IMO.

Winning last night helps our case for Barnes. Holford is a big question mark but we will at least have a meeting with him i am sure.

Huh?  How does that win help the case for Barnes?  Frankly I don't even want him after that mediocre showing.

[SHAQATTACK]

I think this offsets on will truly prove or dismiss the Boston Celtic fa myth.

Luckily if noone wants to come freely, we have enough ammo to capture some great players KG and ray allen style.

Amen brother .

[oldtype]

Times have changed: geographic location matters much, much less than it used to. Durant and Westbrook have both established lucrative marketing presences while living in Oklahoma City, which is an even less attractive city than Boston. You're busy/traveling during the season anyway and have the option of setting up a summer home wherever you want.

What matters for big free agents now - especially those who want to win - is situation. Aside from only having one true all-star caliber player (and no all-nba caliber players), it's hard to imagine an NBA team with cap space that's in a better situation than the Celtics.

Obviously the odds of KD joining are still really, really, really, really low, but they're not so low to the point that people should be chastised for even bringing it up.

[Csfan1984]

Well I see a lot of talk about signing Horford, Barnes, and some maybes on KD. But based on this last off season and recent FA history  C's chances to add upgraded talent via FA looks bleak.

First the full list of possible Free Agents.
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/

Now the $ situation around the league.
http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/241166/The-Maximum-Available-2016-Cap-Space-For-All-30-NBA-Teams-Version-20

It's going to be a huge over pay to get mediocre talent or keep RFA because of the money available for so many teams. About 3/4 of the league can possibly sign a max FA.

With all the draft picks C's are sitting on things may turn out for the best. Instead of overpaying bench guys or late rotation players the C's can actually use them to fill the roster and for a second year punt in FA.

I've been in on the Barnes conversation and since he's restricted, the C's only really need to work out a trade with GSW.  I think Horford is coming here, so a Horford/Barnes off season is a success IMO.

Winning last night helps our case for Barnes. Holford is a big question mark but we will at least have a meeting with him i am sure.

Huh?  How does that win help the case for Barnes?  Frankly I don't even want him after that mediocre showing.

Barnes is struggling right now. It's looking like he may have to do what Turner just did a two year deal with C's to boost back up his value. Be nice to get another bargain.