Crimson you make some good points, and I'm aware of his short comings, are you forgetting he's a rookie and 20 years old?
No, I'm not.
I did say in one of my prior posts that I do acknowledge the fact that he's only 20, but that I believe he has too many holes in his game (even as a 20 YO) to be able to overcome.
This is why I pointed out the fact that Al Jefferson's Per-36 stats were much better as a Rookie than Okafor's are this year.
Jefferson, even as a 20 year old rookie, was basically a 20/10 guy on a Per-36 minute basis, and was getting to the line at a high rate (35% FTR) and blocking close to 2 shots a game Per 36.
As his career went on and his minutes went up, those Per-36 minute numbers from his rookie year pretty much translated to his real world numbers.
Even as a 20 year old rookie Jefferson was never a great defender, was never a standout passer, and didn't have an elite jumpshot.
As his career progressed he got better and better at the things he was already good at (rebounding, post scoring, etc) and did develop a respectable jumper, but he never improved at the things that he couldn't do well to begin with (defense, passing, three point range, etc)
Given how similar the two players are at the age of 20, I can't forsee why Okafor would have any more potential now than Jefferson did when he was 20. This is why I don't foresee Okafor magically becoming a great rebounder, good defender, or good passer, or developing any semblance of an outside shot.
Do you honestly believe he won't be a 20 and 10 guy buy 24 years old?
Yes, I do honestly believe that.
As I said, rebounding is one of those skills that tends to translate immediately to the NBA, for example:
- Nerlens Noel averaged 9.5 REB/36 in his rookie year
- Jared Sullinger averaged 10.7 REB/36 as a rookie
- David Lee averaged 9.7 REB/36 as a rookie
- Demarcus Cousins averaged 10.9 REB/36 as a rookie
- Julius Randle is averaging 13.2 REB/36 in what is essentially his rookie year
- Noah Vonleh averaged 12 REB/36 in his rookie year
You'll find that it's a similar deal with passing big men too. Most guys who are good passing big men now, had nice assist numbers from the moment they entered the league as rookies. It's pretty much an instinctive thing, so it's pretty rare for somebody to come into the league as a terrible passer, and then become a great one later.
Guys who have the potential to be good rebounders, tend to be good rebounders from the moment they enter the league. Very rare for a guy to put up mediocre-to-poor rebounding numbers in his first year, and then go on to become a great rebounder.
I think 20 / 8.5 is probably about where Okafor will peak, and I'm not confident he'll ever average close to 2 blocks a game.
Philly is not a good example for any player on their roster advanced stats cam be skewed some.
I disagree.
Advanced stats for Noel and Okafor (number in brackets is positional rank):
Nerlens NoelOffensive RPM: -3.66 (91/92)
Defensive RPM: +3.99 (3/92)
RPM: +0.33 (28/92)
Offensive RTG: 99
Defensive RTG: 102
Net RTG: -3
Jahlil OkaforOffensive RPM: -3.46 (71/74)
Defensive RPM: -1.68 (73/74)
RPM: -5.14 (74/74)
Offensive RTG: 98
Defensive RTG: 108
Net RTG: -10
Noel's stats show that he's a really poor offensive player and an elite defensive player, which sounds about right. Pretty obvious that playing on the Sixers isn't bringing down his defensive stats, and I think we all know he is limited enough offensively to justify the offensive stats.
Okafor's numbers show that he is almost as bad as Enes Kanter on defense, and worse than Omer Asik on offense. That's really, really bad...and I'm not convinced you can blame this on the fact that he's playing for the Sixers either.
Did you see him at Duke, the kid can pass, he has tremendous feel for the game I really love his game era be dammed.
That may be true, but Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger were both extremely good post player in college, and Jeff Green was known for his impressive playmaking in college too.
Neither of those three really worked out at the NBA level.
Jeff Green's rookie year demonstrated how much of a playmaker he was going to be in the NBA (i.e. not at all). Olynyk's rookie year pretty much demonstrated how much of a post game he was going to have in the NBA (not much).
Sully had a good post game his rookie year, then dropped off badly after that.
Okafor has a great post game as a rookie, so he's likely going to have a tremendous post game his entire career. But he's a poor rebounder and passer as a rookie, so he's probably always going to be a poor rebounder and passer.
Let me ask you this though Crimson. Hypothetically if we did acquire him who would be the perfect Power Forward to pair him with.
My answer would be Draymond Green, to think we took Fab Melo over him, Wow..
I think there are very few players in the NBA who would work somewhat adequately next to Okafor, which makes me all the more concerned about his game and how it translates to his team's future success.
You could argue that Green would fit well next to Okafor - not sure you can blame Danny for taking a flyer or Fab over him though. Melo looked like a terrible offensive player who had the potential to be a huge impact defensive player, so Danny took the gamble to see if it'd work out - which it (obviously) didn't.
Other teams didn't take the gamble on Green (hence why he fell so late) so it's obvious that a lot of teams (in addition to Danny) must have had question marks on whether he could be a productive NBA player. He obviously proved Danny and a lot of others wrong, but Green's emergence probably also has a lot to do with his team situation. With all the firepower in Golden State it gave Green a great opportunity to be able to just be a garbage man and do all the little things to help the team. It also depended on David Lee getting injured, because prior to that he was never really given a chance.
Who knows how many other Draymond Green's there are out there in the NBA who just haven't been discovered do purely to a lack of opportunity. Our very own Jordan Mickey may well be one, even Terry Rozier.
In fact I feel that Mickey has a VERY high chance of becoming a Draymond Green type of player. So far he has excelled at every level - College, Summer League, Preseason, D-League, and even in the NBA in the brief minutes he's played. He has shown every sign of being a guy who could really shock the world if given a real opportunity.
He actually has a lot of similar traits to Green as well. Great athleticism, great length, very good rebounder, good finisher around the basket, nice jump shot with the potential to extend out to three point range, huge defensive potential. Only thing Green has that I don't see in Mickey is the passing ability, but Draymond Green without the passing ability would still be one hell of a player.
This is why I still make the 'Serge Ibaka' comparisons with Mickey. People probably think i'm crazy, but the two guys have a lot more in common than most probably realise, and Ibaka actually got drafted quite late (24th overall) and got limited playing time in his rookie year - then exploded after that.
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