I'd trade Smart for Okafor
I wouldn't. Maybe if Okafor hasn't displayed such a poor attitude in such a short time. But I wouldn't trade Smart for Greg Monroe, and I wouldn't trade him for Okafor.
Okafor isn't some kind of transcendent player. He's a very good low post big man who may done day be an all star. Smart isn't a transcendent player either, but it's a lot easier to build a contending team with a boarder line all-star version of Smart than it is a boarder-line AS version of Okafor.
Smart is much more valuable to winning games
I wouldn't trade Smart for Okafor either, because Okafor is just too limited. He doesn't get to the line, he doesn't have a jumper, his defense is horrendous, he's not much of a passer, and he's a pretty mediocre rebounder. I get that he's young an still has many years to develop, but I'm not confident he can fill THAT many holes.
I would trade Smart for Monroe though. Monroe is very Horford-like in that he does a lot of things well. He's a very good (and efficient) scorer, he gets to the line at will, he's an excellent rebounder, he's an underrated defender, he's a very good passer, and he's even making a very good percentage of his midrange jumpers this year. He's as close as you get to an All-Star without actually being one.
Talented combo guards are a LOT easier to find/replace than talented big men, and Monroe is arguably a top 10 big. If I could get Monroe for Smart, I'd do it on the spot.
No way. Smart has the potential to be a future all star.
López is just a top 40 or 50 player at best.
I like Smart, but he will never be an all-star. He just will never have the stats for it. The only reason Smart gets playing time is because of the other stuff he does.
Well we're both guessing, but I think you're wrong. Marcus is 21 and already impacting NBA games. Improved shooting is possible and is the only thing keeping him from being an all-star.
A guard who is all-NBA defensively while putting up 14 points 5 assists, 5 boards and 2 steals is all-star worthy -- and I think he'll put these type of numbers up next year.
I'm not sure in which world a 14/5/5 guard makes the all star team...even with elite defense.
Damien Lillard (24/7/5), Kemba Walker (20/5/4), Kyrie Irving (19/5/3), Rajon Rondo (12/12/6), Mike Conley (15/6/3) and Reggie Jackson (19/6/3) all missed the ASG this year because that's how deep the league is at the PG spot.
There is no way a 14/5/5 Marcus Smart even sniffs an All-Star game. He'd need to be putting up closer to 17/6/5 and All-Defensive team defense and dramatically improved shooting percentages just to have an outside chance.
Certainly agree on Okafor. He is VERY good at low-post scoring. Probably one of the 5 best low-post guys in the NBA right now, as a rookie. But I don't think there's one other skill he's above average at. Defensively, he's bad. I'd much rather have Sullinger as a defender over him. Now he's young, but like you said there's just too many holes in his game. He's not gonna become some type of franchise cornerstone. And if Okafor is one of your best players, your offense is going to have to feature a whole lot of ISO in the post, while Smart is much more versatile, especially as a two way player.
I know you love Monroe, CS. In ways, I think he could work on the C's. Maybe if you trade Sully, Lee and a non-BRK 1st for him, and you plug him into Sully's current role, he could be successful. Though I think his numbers (particularly his scoring) would suffer. But he lacks Sully's strong mid-range game and slightly credible 3pt shot, and I'm not sure he would buy into the all-our defensive philosophy Boston has the way Sully did. His defensive deficiencies are probably over-rated, but I'd still say he's a below average defender, and Amir isn't exactly a perfect match. Idk if Kelly/Monroe can get by defensively. I see why you like him though, he could be like a Sully on steroids kind of guy here if it all broke right.
Idk about the Horford comparison though. Monroe is a better scorer on the low block, probably even a better rebounder. Horford is a much better shooter, and a full tier or two better defensively. Horford is a better P&R defender and better rim-protector. Probably close to equal passers. I just think Monroe's best game comes from passing out of the high post, grabbing boards, and scoring from within 5 feet. Horford's best game comes from a combination of passing, jump shooting, post scoring, and defense.
If Horford was 27 and had 3 years of team control I'd trade Smart for him. I just wouldn't trade him for Monroe. He's a tough guy to fit in. Sully does well because he tries hard on defense, plays within his role and has a solid 18-20 FT shot. Monroe is a good passer, but he doesn't have a strong jump shot and is poor defensively. You have to plan your offense around him to get the most out of him, and plan your defense around him to cover his deficiencies. Tough to find a guy who can play the 4 regularly, makes 3's and is a plus defensively. To me, it's just much easier to fit a "hit his ceiling" Smart into a championship contender than a "hit his ceiling" Monroe.
I don't love Monroe, I just think he's a very good all round player who would provide a lot of things that we could really benefit from, such as:
1) Post game that can draw doubles and create space for shooters (nobody on this team has it)
2) Rebounding (beyond Sully, nobody else on this team has it)
3) Ability to get to the line (beyond Thomas, nobody else on the team has it)
4) Legitimate size (nobody on this team really has it)
I also think people grossly underestimate Monroe's defensive proficiency. He's posted Defensive RPM numbers of +0.9, +2.30 and +1.4 over his past three seasons, despite playing on Detroit and Milwaukee teams that were pretty unspectacular.
Those numbers are not at all far off Horford's numbers of +1.5, +2.1 and +2.8 over the past three seasons.
In terms of Rim protection, Horford averaged:
* 5.6 adjusted points saved (league best was 9.0, worst was 0.4, so about avg)
* 7.1 adjusted points saved /36 (league best was 12.3, worst was 1.5, so about avg)
* 54.2% contest percentage (league best was 79%, worst was 14.6%, so so about avg)
* 49.9% Rim FG% (league best was 40%, worst 60%, so about avg)
* +4.5% On/Off Defensive FG% (league best was -9.9%, worst was +7.8, so pretty bad)
* +0.1 On/Off Defensive FGA/36 (league best was -5.2, worst was +3.5, so about avg)
Monroe averaged:
* 4.7 adjusted points saved
* 5.6 adjusted points saved /36
* 49.3% contest percentage
* 55% Rim FG%
* +3.9% On/Off Defensive FG%
* +1.7 On/Off Defensive FGA/36
Ultimately there isn't a huge amount separating these guys as rim protectors. Neither is good at it by any means. Horford is pretty much dead on average, Monroe is a tad below average.
So overall, defensively, Horford has a pretty modest edge over Monroe.
This is why for me, personally, I would jump on Monroe over Horford. I believe he is a more attractive option overall because of:
* Youth
* General health
* Well priced, long term contract
* Rebounding
* Ability to draw fouls
I feel all of the above is more than enough to make up for Horford's very modest edge on defense.
Honestly, if all else was equal and we were choosing based on talent alone, then I would probably give Horford a slight edge over Monroe, because he is (IMHO) a slightly more versatile player.
However all else isn't equal, and the there are three key factors (age, injury history and the likely demand for a max contract) that would push me strongly towards Monroe. Especially for young team like ours, which I feel should focus more on long-term competitiveness (i.e. next 3-5 years) rather than a solution that just helps us in the short term (i.e. 1-2 years).
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