Just came from NetsDaily. Apparently...

[KGs Knee]

If you could promise me that Lopez's foot wouldn't crumble into dust, I'd consider it.

Played every game so far, it seems like the foot problems are already fixed.

I don't know if foot problems are ever totally "fixed".  Certainly with big men who play the sport of basketball.

Yeah, I'm not sure I'll ever trust Lopez' health. Too much history with big men and foot problems to ignore.

[crimson_stallion]

This gets to an important element of Ainge and the rebuild.

How do you "value a defensive player" today? Has the boffo scoring of today's NBA shifted player valuations?

If you look at the C's record without Smart this season (don't forget 6 or 7 games were needed for him to get back to being himself) I think, in a full season, he's a "ten win player."

Would Ainge trade Smart for offense? Has the "Curry era" diminished Smart's value?

IMO, Ainge will still "lean in favor of defense." His last title team had the defense. Ainge spent his assets to get it and,  he 'skipped" getting an offensive center by sticking with Perk.

My guess is Ainge sees difficulty in replacing Smart's defense.

I wish we could sit in on this week's rumor discussion with Stevens and Ainge. Would love to know if Brad likes Kevin Love or Lopez or Melo or pix or.....

While I agree with most of this, I don't agree with the bold part above.

We have a starting lineup that features Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Amir Johnson.  I don't think replacing Smart's defence is a big a concern as you might think.

This past week has seen me jump headfirst onto the Smart bandwagon.
If Ainge has any doubt about the kids value he need only review the game tape from Cleveland and the Clippers.
Smart is Leatherhead-warrior-ninja-werewolf and he will eat anyone who gets in his way. No way singe swaps him for anyone other than a bonafide superstar (a young one at that)

arctic has it right. You don't just take a tough-nosed defender like Smart away and expect there not to be a hole.   I think this is a big issue.

Smart, Crowder, Thomas: Trade anyone else.

Disagree personally.

There is no denying Smart's merits, but he also has a LOT of holes in his games that still need developing, and for that reason he's not currently been able to earn back his starting role on this team. 

It's difficult to ignore the fact that this team has been absolutely on fire since we moved Smart to the bench, and put Thomas in the starting lineup.  When it was the other way around we were struggling to make the top 8. 

Smart just has too many flaws in his game for us to be any more than a 7th or 8th seed with him as out primary PG.  His defence is great, but but his shot selection is still questionable, his point guard still aren't quite good enough for him to be a permanent solution at PG, and his outside shot is still too inconsistent to earn sufficient respect from the defence.  He's only 21 so obviously we can't just assume those flaws will always be there, but we can't just assume he'll wipe them out either.

It's still very difficult to gauge at this point exactly how high his ceiling is, and that makes it fairly risk to put TOO much investment into him - especially given his injury record so far.  Personally, I still think "borderline All-Star" (i.e. Al Horford / Paul Millsap / Iggy) is about the absolute ceiling for Smart.  The floor is probably a career long 6th man and energy/glue guy.

If you're Danny Ainge and you get a shot at a Demarcus Cousins calibre talent, then you would give up Smart in an absolute heartbeat.  If it's for a Kevin Love / Brook Lopez level of talent then you have to give it some very serious thought -and you'd probably be on the fence for a while.

No doubt he's been playing much better lately though, and happy to see it.  He's a good kid with the right attitude, but the fact is that he still hasn't been good enough consistently enough to earn a starting role over Avery Bradley - who isn't exactly a star.

Also people talk about Smart being untouchable because of the big plays he makes, but has Smart really made any more big plays than Turner has?  By that logic, do you then make Turner completely untouchable too?   Of course not, things just don't work that way. 

[loco_91]

This gets to an important element of Ainge and the rebuild.

How do you "value a defensive player" today? Has the boffo scoring of today's NBA shifted player valuations?

If you look at the C's record without Smart this season (don't forget 6 or 7 games were needed for him to get back to being himself) I think, in a full season, he's a "ten win player."

Would Ainge trade Smart for offense? Has the "Curry era" diminished Smart's value?

IMO, Ainge will still "lean in favor of defense." His last title team had the defense. Ainge spent his assets to get it and,  he 'skipped" getting an offensive center by sticking with Perk.

My guess is Ainge sees difficulty in replacing Smart's defense.

I wish we could sit in on this week's rumor discussion with Stevens and Ainge. Would love to know if Brad likes Kevin Love or Lopez or Melo or pix or.....

While I agree with most of this, I don't agree with the bold part above.

We have a starting lineup that features Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Amir Johnson.  I don't think replacing Smart's defence is a big a concern as you might think.

This past week has seen me jump headfirst onto the Smart bandwagon.
If Ainge has any doubt about the kids value he need only review the game tape from Cleveland and the Clippers.
Smart is Leatherhead-warrior-ninja-werewolf and he will eat anyone who gets in his way. No way singe swaps him for anyone other than a bonafide superstar (a young one at that)

arctic has it right. You don't just take a tough-nosed defender like Smart away and expect there not to be a hole.   I think this is a big issue.

Smart, Crowder, Thomas: Trade anyone else.

Disagree personally.

There is no denying Smart's merits, but he also has a LOT of holes in his games that still need developing, and for that reason he's not currently been able to earn back his starting role on this team. 

It's difficult to ignore the fact that this team has been absolutely on fire since we moved Smart to the bench, and put Thomas in the starting lineup.  When it was the other way around we were struggling to make the top 8. 

Smart just has too many flaws in his game for us to be any more than a 7th or 8th seed with him as out primary PG.  His defence is great, but but his shot selection is still questionable, his point guard still aren't quite good enough for him to be a permanent solution at PG, and his outside shot is still too inconsistent to earn sufficient respect from the defence.  He's only 21 so obviously we can't just assume those flaws will always be there, but we can't just assume he'll wipe them out either.

It's still very difficult to gauge at this point exactly how high his ceiling is, and that makes it fairly risk to put TOO much investment into him - especially given his injury record so far.  Personally, I still think "borderline All-Star" (i.e. Al Horford / Paul Millsap / Iggy) is about the absolute ceiling for Smart.  The floor is probably a career long 6th man and energy/glue guy.

If you're Danny Ainge and you get a shot at a Demarcus Cousins calibre talent, then you would give up Smart in an absolute heartbeat.  If it's for a Kevin Love / Brook Lopez level of talent then you have to give it some very serious thought -and you'd probably be on the fence for a while.

No doubt he's been playing much better lately though, and happy to see it.  He's a good kid with the right attitude, but the fact is that he still hasn't been good enough consistently enough to earn a starting role over Avery Bradley - who isn't exactly a star.

Also people talk about Smart being untouchable because of the big plays he makes, but has Smart really made any more big plays than Turner has?  By that logic, do you then make Turner completely untouchable too?   Of course not, things just don't work that way.

Smart's upside *in the eyes of casual fans* is probably a borderline allstar, but his upside *in terms of wins contributed* is higher.

-Smart can be a borderline allstar in terms of value contributed just by becoming an average offensive player while making a modest improvement from top-15 to top-5 in the league on defense. Casual fans tend to underrate the difference between a good defender and a premier defender. And he clearly has the ability to be an average player offensively, as he has good instincts + passing to go with his excellent size/strength/length for a PG.
-There's a lot of uncertainty around Smart's true shooting ability; as of a month ago I would've said he was never going to be an above-average shooter, but now I'm not sure.
-It looks to me like his dribble-drive game has progressed, and I'm beginning to buy the narrative that he was previously held back by his injuries. However, it's based on a small sample size, and he was so bad at scoring inside his entire rookie year that I'm hesitant to declare him a slasher based on one month of production.
-It's unclear whether there is any limit to Smart's defensive upside. It's fair to expect him to be a top-5 defensive guard in the league (he may be already), but he could be the #1 defensive guard in the league with his ability to switch onto practically anyone. It's rare for a guard to be legit the best defender in the league, but Smart has as good a chance as anyone except possibly Oladipo.

All in all, I think that 'borderline all-star' is well within reach for Smart, if he becomes a premier defender and a solidly average starter on offense. But he has upside to be even better, either by becoming the best perimeter defender in the league or by developing into an above-average player on offense.

[arctic 3.0]

This gets to an important element of Ainge and the rebuild.

How do you "value a defensive player" today? Has the boffo scoring of today's NBA shifted player valuations?

If you look at the C's record without Smart this season (don't forget 6 or 7 games were needed for him to get back to being himself) I think, in a full season, he's a "ten win player."

Would Ainge trade Smart for offense? Has the "Curry era" diminished Smart's value?

IMO, Ainge will still "lean in favor of defense." His last title team had the defense. Ainge spent his assets to get it and,  he 'skipped" getting an offensive center by sticking with Perk.

My guess is Ainge sees difficulty in replacing Smart's defense.

I wish we could sit in on this week's rumor discussion with Stevens and Ainge. Would love to know if Brad likes Kevin Love or Lopez or Melo or pix or.....

While I agree with most of this, I don't agree with the bold part above.

We have a starting lineup that features Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Amir Johnson.  I don't think replacing Smart's defence is a big a concern as you might think.

This past week has seen me jump headfirst onto the Smart bandwagon.
If Ainge has any doubt about the kids value he need only review the game tape from Cleveland and the Clippers.
Smart is Leatherhead-warrior-ninja-werewolf and he will eat anyone who gets in his way. No way singe swaps him for anyone other than a bonafide superstar (a young one at that)

arctic has it right. You don't just take a tough-nosed defender like Smart away and expect there not to be a hole.   I think this is a big issue.

Smart, Crowder, Thomas: Trade anyone else.

Disagree personally.

There is no denying Smart's merits, but he also has a LOT of holes in his games that still need developing, and for that reason he's not currently been able to earn back his starting role on this team. 

It's difficult to ignore the fact that this team has been absolutely on fire since we moved Smart to the bench, and put Thomas in the starting lineup.  When it was the other way around we were struggling to make the top 8. 

Smart just has too many flaws in his game for us to be any more than a 7th or 8th seed with him as out primary PG.  His defence is great, but but his shot selection is still questionable, his point guard still aren't quite good enough for him to be a permanent solution at PG, and his outside shot is still too inconsistent to earn sufficient respect from the defence.  He's only 21 so obviously we can't just assume those flaws will always be there, but we can't just assume he'll wipe them out either.

It's still very difficult to gauge at this point exactly how high his ceiling is, and that makes it fairly risk to put TOO much investment into him - especially given his injury record so far.  Personally, I still think "borderline All-Star" (i.e. Al Horford / Paul Millsap / Iggy) is about the absolute ceiling for Smart.  The floor is probably a career long 6th man and energy/glue guy.

If you're Danny Ainge and you get a shot at a Demarcus Cousins calibre talent, then you would give up Smart in an absolute heartbeat.  If it's for a Kevin Love / Brook Lopez level of talent then you have to give it some very serious thought -and you'd probably be on the fence for a while.

No doubt he's been playing much better lately though, and happy to see it.  He's a good kid with the right attitude, but the fact is that he still hasn't been good enough consistently enough to earn a starting role over Avery Bradley - who isn't exactly a star.

Also people talk about Smart being untouchable because of the big plays he makes, but has Smart really made any more big plays than Turner has?  By that logic, do you then make Turner completely untouchable too?   Of course not, things just don't work that way.

Or to put it another way
We've been on fire since smart solidified the best second unit this side of the continental divide

[crimson_stallion]

This gets to an important element of Ainge and the rebuild.

How do you "value a defensive player" today? Has the boffo scoring of today's NBA shifted player valuations?

If you look at the C's record without Smart this season (don't forget 6 or 7 games were needed for him to get back to being himself) I think, in a full season, he's a "ten win player."

Would Ainge trade Smart for offense? Has the "Curry era" diminished Smart's value?

IMO, Ainge will still "lean in favor of defense." His last title team had the defense. Ainge spent his assets to get it and,  he 'skipped" getting an offensive center by sticking with Perk.

My guess is Ainge sees difficulty in replacing Smart's defense.

I wish we could sit in on this week's rumor discussion with Stevens and Ainge. Would love to know if Brad likes Kevin Love or Lopez or Melo or pix or.....

While I agree with most of this, I don't agree with the bold part above.

We have a starting lineup that features Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Amir Johnson.  I don't think replacing Smart's defence is a big a concern as you might think.

This past week has seen me jump headfirst onto the Smart bandwagon.
If Ainge has any doubt about the kids value he need only review the game tape from Cleveland and the Clippers.
Smart is Leatherhead-warrior-ninja-werewolf and he will eat anyone who gets in his way. No way singe swaps him for anyone other than a bonafide superstar (a young one at that)

arctic has it right. You don't just take a tough-nosed defender like Smart away and expect there not to be a hole.   I think this is a big issue.

Smart, Crowder, Thomas: Trade anyone else.

Disagree personally.

There is no denying Smart's merits, but he also has a LOT of holes in his games that still need developing, and for that reason he's not currently been able to earn back his starting role on this team. 

It's difficult to ignore the fact that this team has been absolutely on fire since we moved Smart to the bench, and put Thomas in the starting lineup.  When it was the other way around we were struggling to make the top 8. 

Smart just has too many flaws in his game for us to be any more than a 7th or 8th seed with him as out primary PG.  His defence is great, but but his shot selection is still questionable, his point guard still aren't quite good enough for him to be a permanent solution at PG, and his outside shot is still too inconsistent to earn sufficient respect from the defence.  He's only 21 so obviously we can't just assume those flaws will always be there, but we can't just assume he'll wipe them out either.

It's still very difficult to gauge at this point exactly how high his ceiling is, and that makes it fairly risk to put TOO much investment into him - especially given his injury record so far.  Personally, I still think "borderline All-Star" (i.e. Al Horford / Paul Millsap / Iggy) is about the absolute ceiling for Smart.  The floor is probably a career long 6th man and energy/glue guy.

If you're Danny Ainge and you get a shot at a Demarcus Cousins calibre talent, then you would give up Smart in an absolute heartbeat.  If it's for a Kevin Love / Brook Lopez level of talent then you have to give it some very serious thought -and you'd probably be on the fence for a while.

No doubt he's been playing much better lately though, and happy to see it.  He's a good kid with the right attitude, but the fact is that he still hasn't been good enough consistently enough to earn a starting role over Avery Bradley - who isn't exactly a star.

Also people talk about Smart being untouchable because of the big plays he makes, but has Smart really made any more big plays than Turner has?  By that logic, do you then make Turner completely untouchable too?   Of course not, things just don't work that way.

Smart's upside *in the eyes of casual fans* is probably a borderline allstar, but his upside *in terms of wins contributed* is higher.

-Smart can be a borderline allstar in terms of value contributed just by becoming an average offensive player while making a modest improvement from top-15 to top-5 in the league on defense. Casual fans tend to underrate the difference between a good defender and a premier defender. And he clearly has the ability to be an average player offensively, as he has good instincts + passing to go with his excellent size/strength/length for a PG.
-There's a lot of uncertainty around Smart's true shooting ability; as of a month ago I would've said he was never going to be an above-average shooter, but now I'm not sure.
-It looks to me like his dribble-drive game has progressed, and I'm beginning to buy the narrative that he was previously held back by his injuries. However, it's based on a small sample size, and he was so bad at scoring inside his entire rookie year that I'm hesitant to declare him a slasher based on one month of production.
-It's unclear whether there is any limit to Smart's defensive upside. It's fair to expect him to be a top-5 defensive guard in the league (he may be already), but he could be the #1 defensive guard in the league with his ability to switch onto practically anyone. It's rare for a guard to be legit the best defender in the league, but Smart has as good a chance as anyone except possibly Oladipo.

All in all, I think that 'borderline all-star' is well within reach for Smart, if he becomes a premier defender and a solidly average starter on offense. But he has upside to be even better, either by becoming the best perimeter defender in the league or by developing into an above-average player on offense.

The problem is that your argument (in terms of wins added) can also be made for guys like Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk and even Jared Sullinger.  Those guys have amazing advanced stats that indicate the type of incredible impact they have on helping the team win.

But where do you draw the line?  You can't make ALL of of those guys untouchable. 

Personally, I like to use Real Plus Minus to get a feel for a player's impact on team wins.  If you look at that statistic:

Marcus Smart
ORPM: -1.52
DRPM: +1.62
RPM: +0.10 (24th among Point Guards)


Amir Johnson
ORPM: +0.56
DRPM: +2.78
RPM: +3.34 (7th among Power Forwards)


Jared Sullinger
ORPM: +0.30
DRPM: +3.76
RPM: +4.06 (11th among Centers)


Kelly Olynyk
ORPM: +1.41
DRPM: +3.12
RPM: +4.53 (7th among Centers)


Jae Crowder
ORPM: +1.70
DRPM: +1.82
RPM: +3.52 (6th among Small Forwards)


Isaiah Thomas
ORPM: +4.29
DRPM: -2.30
RPM: +1.99 (10th among Small Forwards)


Now if you compare Smart's numbers to some other high impact "borderline All Stars" out there...


Al Horford
ORPM: +1.59
DRPM: +1.25
RPM: +2.84 (21st among Power Forwards)

Greg Monroe
ORPM: +1.43
DRPM: +1.65
RPM: +3.08 (17st among Centers)


Brook Lopez
ORPM: +0.61
DRPM: +2.30
RPM: +2.91 (20th among Centers)


Dwight Howard
ORPM: +0.36
DRPM: +3.84
RPM: +4.20 (10th among Centers)


Paul Millsap
ORPM: +3.53
DRPM: +2.95
RPM: +6.48 (2nd among Power Forwards)


Kevin Love
ORPM: +3.30
DRPM: +2.87
RPM: +6.17 (3rd among Power Forwards)


Derrick Favors
ORPM: +1.72
DRPM: +2.09
RPM: +2.09 (16th among Power Forwards)


Andre Iguodala
ORPM: +1.48
DRPM: +1.11
RPM: +2.59 (8th among Small Forwards)


Tobias Harris
ORPM: +0.17
DRPM: +1.01
RPM: +1.18 (12th among Small Forwards)


Danilo Gallinari
ORPM: 3.46
DRPM: +1.05
RPM: +2.41 (9th among Small Forwards)


Tyreke Evans
ORPM: 1.90
DRPM: +0.30
RPM: +2.20 (4th among Shooting Guards)


Khris Middleton
ORPM: +3.25
DRPM: -1.53
RPM: +1.72 (5th among Shooting Guards)

Khris Middleton
ORPM: +3.25
DRPM: -1.53
RPM: +1.72 (5th among Shooting Guards)


CJ McOllum
ORPM: +2.37
DRPM: -1.24
RPM: +1.13 (6th among Shooting Guards)


Ricky Rubio
ORPM: +2.21
DRPM: +2.53
RPM: +4.74 (5th among Point Guards)


Eric Bledsoe
ORPM: +2.43
DRPM: +0.59
RPM: +3.02 (7th among Point Guards)


Reggie Jackson
ORPM: +4.48
DRPM: -2.44
RPM: +2.04 (9th among Point Guards)


Kemba Walker
ORPM: +2.23
DRPM: +0.18
RPM: +2.41 (8th among Point Guards)

People might think this crazy, but look at the guys we have added since this team made this big turnaround - Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Amir Johnson.  None of these true star plays (bar maybe Thomas) but all are positive +/- guys for their careers, and since adding them this team has increased it's wins dramatically.  This (at least to me) helps to confirm that these kind of stats really do give some indication of how much guys impact their teams...and so I do put some faith in these numbers.

If you do go off these numbers, it starts to becomes easy to see that Smart's impact on his team is nice, but that there are other guys out there who could potentially be available who, statistically, have a much greater impact on winning than Smart does. 

This includes some of the guys who's names have been thrown around recently such as Kevin Love, Al Horford, Brook Lopez, Demarcus Cousins and Dwight Howard.  Theoretically, if you trade Smart for any one of these guys, the team gets better.

The argument for Smart's ability to impact teams in the long term (once he develops) is one factor to consider, but that's an uncertainty until it happens.  These guys are known quantities.  If you have chance to trade Smart guy one of the guys who meets that criteria AND who you can lock in for the long term, you have to consider it.

Smart is a really good defensive player and impacts the game in a lot of other ways, but it doesn't matter WHAT statistic you look at (pure box score stats, or advanced stats like these) there are other guys out there in the league (and even on this team) who have more positive impact than Smart does.

The problem is that it's easy to be a strong team with a good record by having lots of "Smart like" guys - guys who aren't dominant stars, but who have big team impact. It is however very difficult to win championships with lots of those kinds of players.  You kinda need guys who can dominate entire games and entire series on a consistent basis so go far in the playoffs, and Smart isn't consistent enough to be that kind of guy...yet.  It's impossible to know if he ever will be - he might, but who knows.  If you can move a hopeful for a proven entity, you usually do it.

 

[PhoSita]

I'm not entirely confident in RPM yet.  It gets thrown around, especially by ESPN folks, like it's infallible, but it's a new stat and it suggests some rather ... eyebrow-raising results, sometimes.

[crimson_stallion]

I'm not entirely confident in RPM yet.  It gets thrown around, especially by ESPN folks, like it's infallible, but it's a new stat and it suggests some rather ... eyebrow-raising results, sometimes.

I have a fairly strong confidence in it, since I tend to find that a lot of the time it seems to reflect real life pretty well. 

Amir Johnson is a great example.  He's been a great RPM numbers guy everwhere pretty much every year, and that very much matches up with his reputation for being a guy who impacts games far more than his box score numbers suggest.  He moved from Toronto to Boston, and his RPM remains very high - and since adding him (which was pretty much the only move we made this off season) our record has improve substantially.

Last year we ditched a few really bad RPM guys (like Rondo, Green and Thornton) and picked up some solid-to-good RPM guys (like Crowder, Jerebko and Thomas).  When we did so, we basically turned from a lottery team to a #8 seed playoff team almost overnight when we (theoretically) didn't have those negative impact guys dragging us down anymore.

Look at Dallas, and that team is clearly overachieving in a huge way compared to where anybody expected them to be.  You can easily explain that with RPM since they added four guys who had positive RPM's last year in Deron (+1.91), Pachulia (+4.80), Wesley Matthews (+3.65) and Tyson Chandler (+4.58).  Now look at the Mavs this year and they have been extremely competitive in the West, despite the fact that Dirk is starting to fade and look like a shadow of his older self.

By comparison the Nets lost Deron and degraded in a huge way, the Blazers lost Matthews and have have dropped off in a huge way (though they obviously lost Aldridge too), and the Hawks lost Pachulia and have been not nearly as dominant as they were last year.

Detroit lost Josh Smith (-1.45 last year), added Reggie Jackson (+1.18 last year) and added Markieff Morris (+3.43 last year) and have gone from one of the worst teams in the league, to a legit playoff contender. 

I'm sure it probably doesn't reflect so strongly in ALL cases, but there are a lot of circumstances where teams have very much varied from expectations, and the RPM stat for the most part backs/explains it.   

For example, if you look at Smart, his RPM suggests that this year he's had a negative affect on offense, a positive affect on defence, and a slightly positive impact overall.  From all the times I've watched him play this year (and taking into account his offensive inconsistency) that honestly sounds about right.  When he is at his best I believe his 'RPM' would be excellent at around +2.5 or so, but when he's at his worse I feel like his offense is bad enough to bring his overall RPM down to probably -2.0 despite his strong defense.  An overall RPM of around +0.5 for the whole season...that sounds about right to me given that these days his good games probably come 1 in 3 or so.

Guys like Amir and Kelly always seem to have a positive impact on both ends when they step on the floor.  Amir especially on defence.  Even when they aren't scoring a low, both guys are efficient enough offensively that they rarely are a liability - it's not like they go out there shooting 1-10 very often (or ever).  Makes sense to me that those guys have an overwhelmingly strong RPM.

Sully is probably the only one that throws me off a little because he is so inconsistent that I'm surprised to see his RPM numbers so high...but then his have been high since he entered the league, and he's held his own against some very talented bigs this year, so it kinda makes some sense.     

[hwangjini_1]

I'm not entirely confident in RPM yet.  It gets thrown around, especially by ESPN folks, like it's infallible, but it's a new stat and it suggests some rather ... eyebrow-raising results, sometimes.

just curious, but what is it about RPM that gives you doubts or hesitations? i am not advocating for RPM, indeed i dont know my butt from a hole in the ground about it.

i was hoping the more educated folks here could provide me, and others, with more info on what it is and what it positives and negatives may be.

cueing crimson....

[crimson_stallion]

I'm not entirely confident in RPM yet.  It gets thrown around, especially by ESPN folks, like it's infallible, but it's a new stat and it suggests some rather ... eyebrow-raising results, sometimes.

just curious, but what is it about RPM that gives you doubts or hesitations? i am not advocating for RPM, indeed i dont know my butt from a hole in the ground about it.

i was hoping the more educated folks here could provide me, and others, with more info on what it is and what it positives and negatives may be.

cueing crimson....

I think the main arguments are that:

1) There is potential for team circumstances (play style, fit, etc) to significantly impact on numbers in a good or bad way

2) There is a potential for insufficient sample sizes to result in overblown numbers

These are both fair arguments, and if you REALLY think about it you can't possible completely eliminate this from affecting the numbers.  But that's true of ANY stat.

For example, this year Jordan Micky is averaging 42 points, 18 rebounds,. 6 assists, 6 blocks and zero turnovers Per 36 and is shooting 67% from the field.  He has an offensive rating of 182 and a defensive rating of 97.  Those stats suggest he might well be THE best player in the NBA. 

But of course those stats are impacted by the fact that he's only played 6 minutes the entire season, all in garbage time.

It isn't hard for us to use common sense to look at those stats and determine that something isn't right.  Jordan Mickey clearly is not a better scorer than Steph Curry - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out based on the context of those stats.

I believe the same is true for RPM.  If you see stats that might seem incredibly ridiculous, it's kinda expected that you use common sense and consider the context.

For example, if Player A has an RPM of +3.5 and is playing 35 MPG as a starter, it's probably safe to say that this is more impressive than Player B who has an RPM of +3.5 while playing 18 MPG as a backup.  You can read between the lines and understand that Player B is playing less minutes (hence they can play with 100% energy every time they get in the game and do not have to pace themselves) and is coming off the bench (hence is probably playing against less challenging opponents).

Another concern is that I think a lot of people misinterpet RPM.  People often make comments like:

"So Zaza Pachilia has is the 3rd best center in the NBA with his +4.58 RPM then huh?"

No. 

RPM is Real-Plus Minus.  It doesn't tell you how talented a player is or if somebody is a uber star.  It tells you how they impact the team when they get on the court, versus when they get off the court (adjustments are made to cancel out potential impacts from quality if teammates, etc).  Zaza ranking 4th among centers doesn't mean he's the 4th best center in the NBA. 

It means that when he steps on the court in his role, he does so many little things that help his team win.  That could be the smallest things setting great screens, tipping rebounds out to teammates (which he might not get the box score recognition for).  Veteran moves like "pulling the chair" on post players, leading to turnovers that get his team extra possessions.  Taking charges, which earn more possessions.  Making hockey passes (passes that lead to assists, that he doesn't get credit for).  Playing good man-to-man defense to impact a large number of shots without actually getting credited for many blocks.  Being a vocal leader, and talking guys into which positions to be in on offense/defense, etc.

I don't look at a guy like Zaza with his +4.5 RPM and say "lets give that guy a $20M contract and make him the center of out team".  But I might look at Zaza and say "we really need a veteran leader and impact role player who can come in and do the little things to help us improve the team and get a couple of more wins - maybe we can offer Zaza a $8M a year, as he seems to have excelled in that role over the past couple of seasons." 

There are so many things that a guy like Pachulia could do that might allow him to have an absolutely huge impact on team success, despite him having quite limited talent and very modest box score numbers.

However if you look at Pachulia, he has a RPM of +4.34 (8th among centers) this year for the Mavs.  He had an RPM of +4.8 last year (3rd among centers) for the Bucks.  Despite the change in teams (and even conferences) he's numbers are still consistent, which kinda bring into question the whole argument of "numbers being a result of team situation". 

Another use of the stat might be to identify players who have had a real impact in the league, but don't get much recognition because they have limited roles (stuck behind star players) or dont do the flashy things like score in volume.  Crowder is one such example.  I'm sure his +1.91 RPM (and specifically, his +1.81 defensive RPM) in 2013/14 for the Mavs combined with his youth and lack of opportunity in Dallas, probably had something to do with Danny thinking "hey, maybe we should take a flier on this kid, he might have some potential as a impact player off the bench and might help us improve that perimeter defence".

Similar is true for Kevin Garnett, who has had a positive RPM in Brooklyn and in Minnesota, and obviously destroyed every advanced stat while he was in Boston. 

Kevin Love was +5.06 in 2013/14 for the Wolves, +2.71 in 2014/15 for the Cavs, and is +6.17 this year for the Cavs.  Two completely different teams situations - he was a #1 guy on a crap team in Minnesota, he's a #3 guy on a contender in Cleveland.  His individual stats are clearly WAY down, yet his RPM remains similar.  Really can't argue team impact there.

There are probably other cases where guys' numbers have changed when they have changed teams, but maybe it's not the change in team specifically that has led to that.

[max215]

I'm not entirely confident in RPM yet.  It gets thrown around, especially by ESPN folks, like it's infallible, but it's a new stat and it suggests some rather ... eyebrow-raising results, sometimes.

Kevin Love's DRPM has made me a skeptic as well.

[TheSundanceKid]

What is Smart's RPM since returning from injury? I'd think the first part of the season would have dragged him down with the injuries he was carrying

[greece66]

Why would Ainge do that?

bcs they won't do it .... 

[dreamgreen]

WOW, lot of people have an over inflated opinion on Smart. IMO he is totally trade able, BUT!!

Not for Lopez, for one simple reason we don't want Lopez! Yuck can't stand watching him play.

[Phil125]

No way. Smart has the potential to be a future all star.

López is just a top 40 or 50 player at best.

I like Smart, but he will never be an all-star.  He just will never have the stats for it.  The only reason Smart gets playing time is because of the other stuff he does.

[Al91]

We'd have to be careful with a deal like this, because Brooklyn could just reroute Lee and the two picks for Dwight Howard and then move Joe Johnson for a couple overpaid vets

Good thinking.

So I'm confused, is this a conjecture-based trade idea or something more "substantive" from an "NBA source"?