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Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #210 on: February 14, 2016, 09:31:22 AM »

Offline Chris22

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No aging stars and especially no overpaid and overrated Kevin Love.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #211 on: February 14, 2016, 09:33:48 AM »

Offline Sketch5

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I said it before and I will say it again.  Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love.  This is NOT HAPPENING.

Giving up the 2016 Nets pick for Love would undo all of the great things Ainge he's done these past few years.

Given the amount of potential in that pick, and the amount of risk in Love, that trade would have a reasonably high probability of going down in the history as one of the worst trades ever made.


That's pretty harsh Crim.
The Nets are likely going to finish with the 4th worst record. The pick could be # 6 or #7.

Once that pick is gone, we lose most of our ability to trade for a player of Love's caliber.

It's a gamble both ways- and the bigger gamble is holding out for Simmons or Ingram, and then waiting/hoping for them to turn into a top 10 player.

I don't think it's harsh at all. 

The Nets are currently tied for the 3rd worst record in the NBA, they have the third worst point differential (often an indicator of how competitive a team is) and they are 3-7 over their past 10 games.  Put all that together and I can't see any teams outside of Philly, Lakers and Suns realistically finishing the season worse then they are.

The team that finishes with the worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 25%
#2 pick: 21.5%
#3 pick: 17.8%
#4 pick: 35.7%
#5 pick: 0%

This team has a 46.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 64.3% chance at a top 3 pick, and is guaranteed a top 4 pick.


The team that finishes with the second worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 19.9%
#2 pick: 18.8%
#3 pick: 17.1%
#4 pick: 31.9%
#5 pick: 12.3%
#6 pick: 0%

This team has a 38.7% chance at a top 2 pick, a 55.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 70.6% chance at a top 4 pick, and is guaranteed a top 5 pick.


The team that finishes with the third worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 15.6%
#2 pick: 15.7%
#3 pick: 15.6%
#4 pick: 22.6%
#5 pick: 26.5%
#6 pick: 4%
#7 pick: 0%

This team has a 31.3% chance at a top 2 pick, a 46.9% chance at a top 3 pick, a 69.5% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 96% chance at a top 5 pick.   


The team that finishes with the 4th worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 11.9%
#2 pick: 12.6%
#3 pick: 13.3%
#4 pick: 9.9%
#5 pick: 35.1%
#6 pick: 16.0%
#7 pick: 1.2%
#8 pick: 0%

This team has a 24.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 47.7% change at a top 4 pick, an 82.8% at a top 5 pick, a 69.5%, and a 99% chance at a top 6 pick. 


So assuming the top two spots are far and away the most valuable in the draft, here is the probability of each team (at current standings) landing a top 2 pick:

76ers: 46.5%
Lakers: 38.7%
Nets:  31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)
Suns: 31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)

Looking at those odds, the probably in landing a top 2 pick doesn't differ very much at all for the 2rd worst team (38.7%) vs the 3rd worst team (31.3%).

Even the worst team (46.5) isn't a huge amount more likely to get #1 than the third worst team. 

Once you slip into 4th worst spot the odds get worse, but are still very decent. 

Once you slip further than 4th last the odds are very low, but certainly not impossible (just ask Wiggins and Tim Duncan). 

Looking at this, if we do finish bottom 3 with that Nets pick (which is very much possible) then that pick is almost as valuable as a the Lakers pick and Pick...and the odds at falling top too is not really that much lower. 

If we traded for Love and the Nets finish bottom three, and they DO happen to get a top 2 pick in the lottery, then we are giving up legit superstar potential (and a potential franchise player) for the sake of taking on a 27 year old borderline all-star who is constantly injured and probably doesn't make us a contender. 

Low reward imho (as I doubt Love puts us over the top) and high risk (because we are risking a potential franchise player to get him). 

If Love continues his current trend of statistical decline, and we DO end up giving a pick that becomes the next Karl Anthony Towns / Anthony Davis / Kevin Durant level talent, then Danny is going to look really bad...and if Love ends up continuing to prove he's in capapable of leading a team (or staying healthy), then it could become one of the most lopsided trades ever.   

For example, imagine if Cleveland in 2013/14 at the deadline traded their pick (they finished with the 8th worst record) to the Celtics for Rajon Rondo...

Then Rondo put up a the same season numbers he did in Dallas, and Boston ended up pulling Wiggins with the Cleveland pick.

Can you imagine how bad that would have made Cleveland management look?  I know real world that makes no sense because Clevleand had Irving, but just still just an example of how trading a low lottery pick for a high risk star could go very pear shaped.

Trading out Brooklyn first for Love could easily go a similar way given Loves decline in effectiveness over the years, he's well documented history of never winning anything, and his tendency to be constantly injured.

No, it's a bit extreme to say it would be one of the worst trades in history. It's not like he's trading it for a scrub.

What if They get Simmons and he blows out his knee in summer league and doesn't play again.

What if Ingrams body just can't hold up to playing against the pros and he becomes a light Jeff Green.

What if Love comes over and breaks his foot and is never the same again.

All bad trades in after it happens in hindsight, but we don't know whats going to happen a few months from now.

What if the pick ends up being 5, and it's not good enough. Now we are left with a less potential rookie, and no shot at love because we loose Lee's contract to make it happen.

Some times you just have to grow a pair take the best option at the time and worry about the future when it becomes the present. Plus we still have 2017 and 2018 to add to an older, vetted up Boston team. And the Nets don't look like there are going to get any better, and some of the teams in the East could get much better.

Bottom line, it's a crap shoot.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #212 on: February 14, 2016, 10:11:51 AM »

Offline ssspence

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Not sure if this has been posted yet, but Melo said yesterday he's 'not going anywhere' before the deadline (i.e. Not waiving his NTC).
Mike

(My name is not Mike)

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #213 on: February 14, 2016, 12:26:17 PM »

Offline j804

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Not sure if this has been posted yet, but Melo said yesterday he's 'not going anywhere' before the deadline (i.e. Not waiving his NTC).

Quote
Doing it in New York is better than doing it any place in the world," said Anthony, who noted that he has had no conversations with management about a trade. "One in New York is better than multiple somewhere else, so that was the reason I wanted to come to New York. That's the reason why I'm in New York, so it just bothers me when I started hearing all these trade rumors and trade talks."

He added: "I don't know where [trade rumors] comes from so sometimes it gets to you as a player. Just get tired of hearing something all the time. I'm not on the run. I could've ran somewhere when I was a free agent, you know what I'm saying? I came back for a reason. I came back because I wanted to do this."

Not happening guys  >:(
"7ft PG. Rondo leaves and GUESS WHAT? We got a BIGGER point guard!"-Tommy on Olynyk


Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #214 on: February 14, 2016, 12:30:19 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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Do people actually believe what the players say?

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #215 on: February 14, 2016, 12:32:52 PM »

Online BitterJim

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I said it before and I will say it again.  Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love.  This is NOT HAPPENING.

Giving up the 2016 Nets pick for Love would undo all of the great things Ainge he's done these past few years.

Given the amount of potential in that pick, and the amount of risk in Love, that trade would have a reasonably high probability of going down in the history as one of the worst trades ever made.


That's pretty harsh Crim.
The Nets are likely going to finish with the 4th worst record. The pick could be # 6 or #7.

Once that pick is gone, we lose most of our ability to trade for a player of Love's caliber.

It's a gamble both ways- and the bigger gamble is holding out for Simmons or Ingram, and then waiting/hoping for them to turn into a top 10 player.

I don't think it's harsh at all. 

The Nets are currently tied for the 3rd worst record in the NBA, they have the third worst point differential (often an indicator of how competitive a team is) and they are 3-7 over their past 10 games.  Put all that together and I can't see any teams outside of Philly, Lakers and Suns realistically finishing the season worse then they are.

The team that finishes with the worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 25%
#2 pick: 21.5%
#3 pick: 17.8%
#4 pick: 35.7%
#5 pick: 0%

This team has a 46.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 64.3% chance at a top 3 pick, and is guaranteed a top 4 pick.


The team that finishes with the second worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 19.9%
#2 pick: 18.8%
#3 pick: 17.1%
#4 pick: 31.9%
#5 pick: 12.3%
#6 pick: 0%

This team has a 38.7% chance at a top 2 pick, a 55.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 70.6% chance at a top 4 pick, and is guaranteed a top 5 pick.


The team that finishes with the third worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 15.6%
#2 pick: 15.7%
#3 pick: 15.6%
#4 pick: 22.6%
#5 pick: 26.5%
#6 pick: 4%
#7 pick: 0%

This team has a 31.3% chance at a top 2 pick, a 46.9% chance at a top 3 pick, a 69.5% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 96% chance at a top 5 pick.   


The team that finishes with the 4th worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 11.9%
#2 pick: 12.6%
#3 pick: 13.3%
#4 pick: 9.9%
#5 pick: 35.1%
#6 pick: 16.0%
#7 pick: 1.2%
#8 pick: 0%

This team has a 24.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 47.7% change at a top 4 pick, an 82.8% at a top 5 pick, a 69.5%, and a 99% chance at a top 6 pick. 


So assuming the top two spots are far and away the most valuable in the draft, here is the probability of each team (at current standings) landing a top 2 pick:

76ers: 46.5%
Lakers: 38.7%
Nets:  31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)
Suns: 31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)

Looking at those odds, the probably in landing a top 2 pick doesn't differ very much at all for the 2rd worst team (38.7%) vs the 3rd worst team (31.3%).

Even the worst team (46.5) isn't a huge amount more likely to get #1 than the third worst team. 

Once you slip into 4th worst spot the odds get worse, but are still very decent. 

Once you slip further than 4th last the odds are very low, but certainly not impossible (just ask Wiggins and Tim Duncan). 

Looking at this, if we do finish bottom 3 with that Nets pick (which is very much possible) then that pick is almost as valuable as a the Lakers pick and Pick...and the odds at falling top too is not really that much lower. 

If we traded for Love and the Nets finish bottom three, and they DO happen to get a top 2 pick in the lottery, then we are giving up legit superstar potential (and a potential franchise player) for the sake of taking on a 27 year old borderline all-star who is constantly injured and probably doesn't make us a contender. 

Low reward imho (as I doubt Love puts us over the top) and high risk (because we are risking a potential franchise player to get him). 

If Love continues his current trend of statistical decline, and we DO end up giving a pick that becomes the next Karl Anthony Towns / Anthony Davis / Kevin Durant level talent, then Danny is going to look really bad...and if Love ends up continuing to prove he's in capapable of leading a team (or staying healthy), then it could become one of the most lopsided trades ever.   

For example, imagine if Cleveland in 2013/14 at the deadline traded their pick (they finished with the 8th worst record) to the Celtics for Rajon Rondo...

Then Rondo put up a the same season numbers he did in Dallas, and Boston ended up pulling Wiggins with the Cleveland pick.

Can you imagine how bad that would have made Cleveland management look?  I know real world that makes no sense because Clevleand had Irving, but just still just an example of how trading a low lottery pick for a high risk star could go very pear shaped.

Trading out Brooklyn first for Love could easily go a similar way given Loves decline in effectiveness over the years, he's well documented history of never winning anything, and his tendency to be constantly injured.

No, it's a bit extreme to say it would be one of the worst trades in history. It's not like he's trading it for a scrub.

What if They get Simmons and he blows out his knee in summer league and doesn't play again.

What if Ingrams body just can't hold up to playing against the pros and he becomes a light Jeff Green.

What if Love comes over and breaks his foot and is never the same again.

All bad trades in after it happens in hindsight, but we don't know whats going to happen a few months from now.

What if the pick ends up being 5, and it's not good enough. Now we are left with a less potential rookie, and no shot at love because we loose Lee's contract to make it happen.

Some times you just have to grow a pair take the best option at the time and worry about the future when it becomes the present. Plus we still have 2017 and 2018 to add to an older, vetted up Boston team. And the Nets don't look like there are going to get any better, and some of the teams in the East could get much better.

Bottom line, it's a crap shoot.

We wouldn't need Lee's contract to get Love in the summer, we could absorb him into our cap space
I'm bitter.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #216 on: February 14, 2016, 12:54:59 PM »

Offline crownontherocks

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Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #217 on: February 14, 2016, 01:26:39 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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iT and boogie

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Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #218 on: February 14, 2016, 01:28:11 PM »

Offline Jon

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Do people actually believe what the players say?

Exactly. Because if he doesn't say that, he gets labeled a whiner and a locker room cancer.

I still think that trade is a long shot at best, but I wouldn't put credence into anything anyone says.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #219 on: February 14, 2016, 02:07:44 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Do people actually believe what the players say?

Exactly. Because if he doesn't say that, he gets labeled a whiner and a locker room cancer.

I still think that trade is a long shot at best, but I wouldn't put credence into anything anyone says.

Melo is playing well this year, he has deferred greatly to establishing Porzingis and by all accounts has been a good teammate.  His trade value is very high because of this, even though he is 30+ with injuries.

If the right situation comes along Melo will waive his trade clause.  Cleveland is that exact situation.  He has yet to play in any meaningful late-playoff series and his career is winding down.  I think he can contribute well into his late 30s if he stays relatively healthy, because his face-up offensive game and shooting ability will not deteriorate that rapidly.  Pairing up with a playmaker like Lebron will rocket Melo's offensive efficiency and create lots of mismatches where he is paired against slower 4s while the athletic wing defends Lebron.

Melo to Cleveland makes too much sense for him to not waive the no-trade.  If a deal is on the table and he declines to waive it, we will finally know Melo only cares about getting paid and being in NYC, and not about winning.


Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #220 on: February 14, 2016, 03:48:08 PM »

Offline greece66

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Do people actually believe what the players say?

Exactly. Because if he doesn't say that, he gets labeled a whiner and a locker room cancer.

I still think that trade is a long shot at best, but I wouldn't put credence into anything anyone says.

TP to both.

Also, I'm p shocked at how many ppl think giving up Lee and the Brooklyn pick for Love is a bad deal.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #221 on: February 14, 2016, 04:14:08 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Do people actually believe what the players say?

Exactly. Because if he doesn't say that, he gets labeled a whiner and a locker room cancer.

I still think that trade is a long shot at best, but I wouldn't put credence into anything anyone says.

Melo is playing well this year, he has deferred greatly to establishing Porzingis and by all accounts has been a good teammate.  His trade value is very high because of this, even though he is 30+ with injuries.

If the right situation comes along Melo will waive his trade clause.  Cleveland is that exact situation.  He has yet to play in any meaningful late-playoff series and his career is winding down.  I think he can contribute well into his late 30s if he stays relatively healthy, because his face-up offensive game and shooting ability will not deteriorate that rapidly.  Pairing up with a playmaker like Lebron will rocket Melo's offensive efficiency and create lots of mismatches where he is paired against slower 4s while the athletic wing defends Lebron.

Melo to Cleveland makes too much sense for him to not waive the no-trade.  If a deal is on the table and he declines to waive it, we will finally know Melo only cares about getting paid and being in NYC, and not about winning.
that may be. but that is not the way it worked out for love. basically, love became the third option and stands around in the corner to shoot a three much of the time.

melo is not about to become 3rd option on any team.

add to this his spouse, who has proven that her opinion matters. last i heard her opinion is that NYC is where she wants to be....cleveland? ha, ha...not so much i am sure.
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Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #222 on: February 14, 2016, 07:00:53 PM »

Offline greece66

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Do people actually believe what the players say?

Exactly. Because if he doesn't say that, he gets labeled a whiner and a locker room cancer.

I still think that trade is a long shot at best, but I wouldn't put credence into anything anyone says.

Melo is playing well this year, he has deferred greatly to establishing Porzingis and by all accounts has been a good teammate.  His trade value is very high because of this, even though he is 30+ with injuries.

If the right situation comes along Melo will waive his trade clause.  Cleveland is that exact situation.  He has yet to play in any meaningful late-playoff series and his career is winding down.  I think he can contribute well into his late 30s if he stays relatively healthy, because his face-up offensive game and shooting ability will not deteriorate that rapidly.  Pairing up with a playmaker like Lebron will rocket Melo's offensive efficiency and create lots of mismatches where he is paired against slower 4s while the athletic wing defends Lebron.

Melo to Cleveland makes too much sense for him to not waive the no-trade.  If a deal is on the table and he declines to waive it, we will finally know Melo only cares about getting paid and being in NYC, and not about winning.
that may be. but that is not the way it worked out for love. basically, love became the third option and stands around in the corner to shoot a three much of the time.

melo is not about to become 3rd option on any team.

add to this his spouse, who has proven that her opinion matters. last i heard her opinion is that NYC is where she wants to be....cleveland? ha, ha...not so much i am sure.

Trying desperately to get rid of awful contract
Find perfect deal
Contract's wife sabotages deal for lifestyle reasons

You need a Zen Master to deal with this mess

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #223 on: February 14, 2016, 07:31:59 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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melo is not about to become 3rd option on any team.

I have seen others draw a similar conclusion but I don't see Carmelo being the 3rd option to Irving.  Second option yes but Carmelo is not Kevin Love.  It is Irving who would have to adjust some but I am sure he could.

I am not sure Carmelo wants to go to CLE mid-season (reports are that he does not want to go anywhere) but there is nothing to indicate that this would be part of his thinking or that it would even be the actuality. 

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #224 on: February 14, 2016, 09:58:42 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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No, it's a bit extreme to say it would be one of the worst trades in history. It's not like he's trading it for a scrub.

What if They get Simmons and he blows out his knee in summer league and doesn't play again.

What if Ingrams body just can't hold up to playing against the pros and he becomes a light Jeff Green.

What if Love comes over and breaks his foot and is never the same again.

All bad trades in after it happens in hindsight, but we don't know whats going to happen a few months from now.

What if the pick ends up being 5, and it's not good enough. Now we are left with a less potential rookie, and no shot at love because we loose Lee's contract to make it happen.

Some times you just have to grow a pair take the best option at the time and worry about the future when it becomes the present. Plus we still have 2017 and 2018 to add to an older, vetted up Boston team. And the Nets don't look like there are going to get any better, and some of the teams in the East could get much better.

Bottom line, it's a crap shoot.

I don't think it's too extreme. 

I'm not saying it WOULD be one of the worst trades in history, I'm just saying it has the potential to be.  I think that's a fair call.

If you traded the Nets pick for a young star who has been healthy his whole career, who is on a cap friendly deal, then even if something happened and he suffered a career ending injury...you can deal with that knowing that you made the best decision at the time, when the move looked incredibly low risk.

However in the case of a Love trade, the risk is MASSIVE.

1) Love is only 27, yet up until this season he's missed 25% of possible games (one quarter of his entire career) due to injury...and now he is injured yet again.

2) Despite only being 27, his stats in just about every major category (scoring, rebounding, assists, fouls and shooting percentages) have all gotten worse over the past two seasons -  in some cases (scoring, FG%) dramatically worse.

3) He's already forced a trade from one team when he couldn't win there, bringing into question his team loyalty

3) In 7 NBA seasons so far, he has played only four playoff games - in which he's averaged 14 points, 7 rebounds, 2.5 assists and shot 41% against an 8th seed Celtics team that was a clear underdog.   Doesn't exactly show signs of a guy who rises on the big stage.

4) Teammates have gone on record speaking of his lack of leadership skills, meaning you can probably never depend on him to carry your team

5) He's owned $20M a year every year until the day he turns 32

There are a LOT of signs here to indicate that investing in Kevin Love is a very, very, very bad idea. 

On the other hand the only thing you really have to argue FOR the trade is the whole argument of "his numbers only declined because he's playing with Lebron and being used wrong" - which is pure conjecture, and a very weak argument to use as a basis for a deal that could potentially cripple your franchise (financially) for half a decade.
 
So yeah, all things considered, that trade has all the potential to be an absolute disaster in the worst-case scenario...while the best-case scenario is that you get a pretty good / borderline All-Star big man (which is what Love is these days) for the next 5 years at Superstar money.

I would describe this deal as very high risk / medium reward. 

You could get just as much production from a big like Greg Monroe or Derrick Favors for a fraction of the financial cost, and with none of the risk, in which case you have a low risk / medium reward deal, which is (IMHO) much preferable.