Author Topic: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)  (Read 36966 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #195 on: February 13, 2016, 09:24:29 PM »

Offline BDeCosta26

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1314
  • Tommy Points: 232
Thing is with the nets pick
It's not a guarantee that it falls or goes 5 or below
We could end up winning the lottery and getting a no 1 pick,2 or 3 pick

The talent drops off after Simmons and Ingram
Bug I feel like the nets will probably be only 4 or 5
Philly, LA, Phoenix seem definitely worst than nets who at least have brook Lopez, young and joe Johnson to win them games
Phoenix is possibly the worst team as they've gone on this multiple game losing streak after losing Bledsoe

It's more likely than not that the person with the best lottery odds DOES NOT win the draft lottery. Just because we MIGHT slip from 3rd best odds to 4th, doesn't make that pick much less valuable. If it lands at 4, the chances are much higher it ends up in the top 5 than out of it.

We once traded #5 for Ray Allen and Baby Davis. I wouldn't get too caught up in the exact positioning of that pick, as long as it's high lottery, it has around the same value at the deadline.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #196 on: February 13, 2016, 11:53:27 PM »

Offline greece66

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7395
  • Tommy Points: 1342
  • Head Paperboy at Greenville
I said it before and I will say it again.  Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love.  This is NOT HAPPENING.

He facilitated Kevin Love getting to Cleveland though...

I can't remember the specifics there, but Danny did facilitate Lebron to Cleveland.  So long as the Celtics do well, I don't think he cares all that much about who else gets helped.
^This.

Per Melo:Jackson has all the reasons in the world to want him out of NYK, and Melo has every reason to make a last attempt to a ring.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 12:16:10 AM by greece666 »

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #197 on: February 14, 2016, 01:05:57 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5964
  • Tommy Points: 875
I said it before and I will say it again.  Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love.  This is NOT HAPPENING.

Giving up the 2016 Nets pick for Love would undo all of the great things Ainge he's done these past few years.

Given the amount of potential in that pick, and the amount of risk in Love, that trade would have a reasonably high probability of going down in the history as one of the worst trades ever made.


That's pretty harsh Crim.
The Nets are likely going to finish with the 4th worst record. The pick could be # 6 or #7.

Once that pick is gone, we lose most of our ability to trade for a player of Love's caliber.

It's a gamble both ways- and the bigger gamble is holding out for Simmons or Ingram, and then waiting/hoping for them to turn into a top 10 player.

I don't think it's harsh at all. 

The Nets are currently tied for the 3rd worst record in the NBA, they have the third worst point differential (often an indicator of how competitive a team is) and they are 3-7 over their past 10 games.  Put all that together and I can't see any teams outside of Philly, Lakers and Suns realistically finishing the season worse then they are.

The team that finishes with the worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 25%
#2 pick: 21.5%
#3 pick: 17.8%
#4 pick: 35.7%
#5 pick: 0%

This team has a 46.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 64.3% chance at a top 3 pick, and is guaranteed a top 4 pick.


The team that finishes with the second worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 19.9%
#2 pick: 18.8%
#3 pick: 17.1%
#4 pick: 31.9%
#5 pick: 12.3%
#6 pick: 0%

This team has a 38.7% chance at a top 2 pick, a 55.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 70.6% chance at a top 4 pick, and is guaranteed a top 5 pick.


The team that finishes with the third worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 15.6%
#2 pick: 15.7%
#3 pick: 15.6%
#4 pick: 22.6%
#5 pick: 26.5%
#6 pick: 4%
#7 pick: 0%

This team has a 31.3% chance at a top 2 pick, a 46.9% chance at a top 3 pick, a 69.5% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 96% chance at a top 5 pick.   


The team that finishes with the 4th worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 11.9%
#2 pick: 12.6%
#3 pick: 13.3%
#4 pick: 9.9%
#5 pick: 35.1%
#6 pick: 16.0%
#7 pick: 1.2%
#8 pick: 0%

This team has a 24.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 47.7% change at a top 4 pick, an 82.8% at a top 5 pick, a 69.5%, and a 99% chance at a top 6 pick. 


So assuming the top two spots are far and away the most valuable in the draft, here is the probability of each team (at current standings) landing a top 2 pick:

76ers: 46.5%
Lakers: 38.7%
Nets:  31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)
Suns: 31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)

Looking at those odds, the probably in landing a top 2 pick doesn't differ very much at all for the 2rd worst team (38.7%) vs the 3rd worst team (31.3%).

Even the worst team (46.5) isn't a huge amount more likely to get #1 than the third worst team. 

Once you slip into 4th worst spot the odds get worse, but are still very decent. 

Once you slip further than 4th last the odds are very low, but certainly not impossible (just ask Wiggins and Tim Duncan). 

Looking at this, if we do finish bottom 3 with that Nets pick (which is very much possible) then that pick is almost as valuable as a the Lakers pick and Pick...and the odds at falling top too is not really that much lower. 

If we traded for Love and the Nets finish bottom three, and they DO happen to get a top 2 pick in the lottery, then we are giving up legit superstar potential (and a potential franchise player) for the sake of taking on a 27 year old borderline all-star who is constantly injured and probably doesn't make us a contender. 

Low reward imho (as I doubt Love puts us over the top) and high risk (because we are risking a potential franchise player to get him). 

If Love continues his current trend of statistical decline, and we DO end up giving a pick that becomes the next Karl Anthony Towns / Anthony Davis / Kevin Durant level talent, then Danny is going to look really bad...and if Love ends up continuing to prove he's in capapable of leading a team (or staying healthy), then it could become one of the most lopsided trades ever.   

For example, imagine if Cleveland in 2013/14 at the deadline traded their pick (they finished with the 8th worst record) to the Celtics for Rajon Rondo...

Then Rondo put up a the same season numbers he did in Dallas, and Boston ended up pulling Wiggins with the Cleveland pick.

Can you imagine how bad that would have made Cleveland management look?  I know real world that makes no sense because Clevleand had Irving, but just still just an example of how trading a low lottery pick for a high risk star could go very pear shaped.

Trading out Brooklyn first for Love could easily go a similar way given Loves decline in effectiveness over the years, he's well documented history of never winning anything, and his tendency to be constantly injured.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 01:24:14 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #198 on: February 14, 2016, 01:39:42 AM »

Offline MJohnnyboy

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2438
  • Tommy Points: 269
It's for all those reasons that crimson said that I think this deal won't be discussed seriously until draft day because to me it depends on where the pick lands first. I firmly believe the Celtics were going to get Love in 2014 before the Cavs "won" the lottery again. Thank goodness because if that had happened, Rondo and Green would probably still be on the team.

I agree with the sentiment that if it's top-3, Danny won't do a trade for Love, but if it's later than that, I think Danny will listen to a potential Kevin Love deal. I think Danny likes the guy and if he and Brad thinks he's going to fit, I don't have a problem with that.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #199 on: February 14, 2016, 03:26:47 AM »

Offline greece66

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7395
  • Tommy Points: 1342
  • Head Paperboy at Greenville
I said it before and I will say it again.  Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love.  This is NOT HAPPENING.

Giving up the 2016 Nets pick for Love would undo all of the great things Ainge he's done these past few years.

Given the amount of potential in that pick, and the amount of risk in Love, that trade would have a reasonably high probability of going down in the history as one of the worst trades ever made.


That's pretty harsh Crim.
The Nets are likely going to finish with the 4th worst record. The pick could be # 6 or #7.

Once that pick is gone, we lose most of our ability to trade for a player of Love's caliber.

It's a gamble both ways- and the bigger gamble is holding out for Simmons or Ingram, and then waiting/hoping for them to turn into a top 10 player.

I don't think it's harsh at all. 

The Nets are currently tied for the 3rd worst record in the NBA, they have the third worst point differential (often an indicator of how competitive a team is) and they are 3-7 over their past 10 games.  Put all that together and I can't see any teams outside of Philly, Lakers and Suns realistically finishing the season worse then they are.

The team that finishes with the worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 25%
#2 pick: 21.5%
#3 pick: 17.8%
#4 pick: 35.7%
#5 pick: 0%

This team has a 46.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 64.3% chance at a top 3 pick, and is guaranteed a top 4 pick.


The team that finishes with the second worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 19.9%
#2 pick: 18.8%
#3 pick: 17.1%
#4 pick: 31.9%
#5 pick: 12.3%
#6 pick: 0%

This team has a 38.7% chance at a top 2 pick, a 55.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 70.6% chance at a top 4 pick, and is guaranteed a top 5 pick.


The team that finishes with the third worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 15.6%
#2 pick: 15.7%
#3 pick: 15.6%
#4 pick: 22.6%
#5 pick: 26.5%
#6 pick: 4%
#7 pick: 0%

This team has a 31.3% chance at a top 2 pick, a 46.9% chance at a top 3 pick, a 69.5% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 96% chance at a top 5 pick.   


The team that finishes with the 4th worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 11.9%
#2 pick: 12.6%
#3 pick: 13.3%
#4 pick: 9.9%
#5 pick: 35.1%
#6 pick: 16.0%
#7 pick: 1.2%
#8 pick: 0%

This team has a 24.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 47.7% change at a top 4 pick, an 82.8% at a top 5 pick, a 69.5%, and a 99% chance at a top 6 pick. 


So assuming the top two spots are far and away the most valuable in the draft, here is the probability of each team (at current standings) landing a top 2 pick:

76ers: 46.5%
Lakers: 38.7%
Nets:  31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)
Suns: 31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)

Looking at those odds, the probably in landing a top 2 pick doesn't differ very much at all for the 2rd worst team (38.7%) vs the 3rd worst team (31.3%).

Even the worst team (46.5) isn't a huge amount more likely to get #1 than the third worst team. 

Once you slip into 4th worst spot the odds get worse, but are still very decent. 

Once you slip further than 4th last the odds are very low, but certainly not impossible (just ask Wiggins and Tim Duncan). 

Looking at this, if we do finish bottom 3 with that Nets pick (which is very much possible) then that pick is almost as valuable as a the Lakers pick and Pick...and the odds at falling top too is not really that much lower. 

If we traded for Love and the Nets finish bottom three, and they DO happen to get a top 2 pick in the lottery, then we are giving up legit superstar potential (and a potential franchise player) for the sake of taking on a 27 year old borderline all-star who is constantly injured and probably doesn't make us a contender. 

Low reward imho (as I doubt Love puts us over the top) and high risk (because we are risking a potential franchise player to get him). 

If Love continues his current trend of statistical decline, and we DO end up giving a pick that becomes the next Karl Anthony Towns / Anthony Davis / Kevin Durant level talent, then Danny is going to look really bad...and if Love ends up continuing to prove he's in capapable of leading a team (or staying healthy), then it could become one of the most lopsided trades ever.   

For example, imagine if Cleveland in 2013/14 at the deadline traded their pick (they finished with the 8th worst record) to the Celtics for Rajon Rondo...

Then Rondo put up a the same season numbers he did in Dallas, and Boston ended up pulling Wiggins with the Cleveland pick.

Can you imagine how bad that would have made Cleveland management look?  I know real world that makes no sense because Clevleand had Irving, but just still just an example of how trading a low lottery pick for a high risk star could go very pear shaped.

Trading out Brooklyn first for Love could easily go a similar way given Loves decline in effectiveness over the years, he's well documented history of never winning anything, and his tendency to be constantly injured.

If the Nets finish third

If we get lucky with the ping pong balls

And if the pick turns to be an MJ or LBJ rather than a Sam Bowie, Greg Oden or Anthony Bennett

And if Love's injury issues are as serious as you claim.

Nothing wrong with your arguments, I just think you give way too much value to a pick over proven talent.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #200 on: February 14, 2016, 04:01:11 AM »

Offline GC003332

  • Jayson Tatum
  • Posts: 804
  • Tommy Points: 62
I said it before and I will say it again.  Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love.  This is NOT HAPPENING.

Giving up the 2016 Nets pick for Love would undo all of the great things Ainge he's done these past few years.

Given the amount of potential in that pick, and the amount of risk in Love, that trade would have a reasonably high probability of going down in the history as one of the worst trades ever made.


That's pretty harsh Crim.
The Nets are likely going to finish with the 4th worst record. The pick could be # 6 or #7.

Once that pick is gone, we lose most of our ability to trade for a player of Love's caliber.

It's a gamble both ways- and the bigger gamble is holding out for Simmons or Ingram, and then waiting/hoping for them to turn into a top 10 player.

I don't think it's harsh at all. 

The Nets are currently tied for the 3rd worst record in the NBA, they have the third worst point differential (often an indicator of how competitive a team is) and they are 3-7 over their past 10 games.  Put all that together and I can't see any teams outside of Philly, Lakers and Suns realistically finishing the season worse then they are.

The team that finishes with the worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 25%
#2 pick: 21.5%
#3 pick: 17.8%
#4 pick: 35.7%
#5 pick: 0%

This team has a 46.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 64.3% chance at a top 3 pick, and is guaranteed a top 4 pick.


The team that finishes with the second worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 19.9%
#2 pick: 18.8%
#3 pick: 17.1%
#4 pick: 31.9%
#5 pick: 12.3%
#6 pick: 0%

This team has a 38.7% chance at a top 2 pick, a 55.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 70.6% chance at a top 4 pick, and is guaranteed a top 5 pick.


The team that finishes with the third worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 15.6%
#2 pick: 15.7%
#3 pick: 15.6%
#4 pick: 22.6%
#5 pick: 26.5%
#6 pick: 4%
#7 pick: 0%

This team has a 31.3% chance at a top 2 pick, a 46.9% chance at a top 3 pick, a 69.5% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 96% chance at a top 5 pick.   


The team that finishes with the 4th worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 11.9%
#2 pick: 12.6%
#3 pick: 13.3%
#4 pick: 9.9%
#5 pick: 35.1%
#6 pick: 16.0%
#7 pick: 1.2%
#8 pick: 0%

This team has a 24.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 47.7% change at a top 4 pick, an 82.8% at a top 5 pick, a 69.5%, and a 99% chance at a top 6 pick. 


So assuming the top two spots are far and away the most valuable in the draft, here is the probability of each team (at current standings) landing a top 2 pick:

76ers: 46.5%
Lakers: 38.7%
Nets:  31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)
Suns: 31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)

Looking at those odds, the probably in landing a top 2 pick doesn't differ very much at all for the 2rd worst team (38.7%) vs the 3rd worst team (31.3%).

Even the worst team (46.5) isn't a huge amount more likely to get #1 than the third worst team. 

Once you slip into 4th worst spot the odds get worse, but are still very decent. 

Once you slip further than 4th last the odds are very low, but certainly not impossible (just ask Wiggins and Tim Duncan). 

Looking at this, if we do finish bottom 3 with that Nets pick (which is very much possible) then that pick is almost as valuable as a the Lakers pick and Pick...and the odds at falling top too is not really that much lower. 

If we traded for Love and the Nets finish bottom three, and they DO happen to get a top 2 pick in the lottery, then we are giving up legit superstar potential (and a potential franchise player) for the sake of taking on a 27 year old borderline all-star who is constantly injured and probably doesn't make us a contender. 

Low reward imho (as I doubt Love puts us over the top) and high risk (because we are risking a potential franchise player to get him). 

If Love continues his current trend of statistical decline, and we DO end up giving a pick that becomes the next Karl Anthony Towns / Anthony Davis / Kevin Durant level talent, then Danny is going to look really bad...and if Love ends up continuing to prove he's in capapable of leading a team (or staying healthy), then it could become one of the most lopsided trades ever.   

For example, imagine if Cleveland in 2013/14 at the deadline traded their pick (they finished with the 8th worst record) to the Celtics for Rajon Rondo...

Then Rondo put up a the same season numbers he did in Dallas, and Boston ended up pulling Wiggins with the Cleveland pick.

Can you imagine how bad that would have made Cleveland management look?  I know real world that makes no sense because Clevleand had Irving, but just still just an example of how trading a low lottery pick for a high risk star could go very pear shaped.

Trading out Brooklyn first for Love could easily go a similar way given Loves decline in effectiveness over the years, he's well documented history of never winning anything, and his tendency to be constantly injured.

TP for the time and effort that you put into most of your posts.



Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #201 on: February 14, 2016, 05:10:50 AM »

Offline guava_wrench

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9931
  • Tommy Points: 777
The best thing about this deal is that I'm not even sure that Carmelo would be an upgrade for them. If you think Love was not down for a lesser role, how do you think Carmelo will handle that?? Also, that just adds one more iso-heavy offensive player to that starting lineup. There's no way there are enough touches to satisfy and fully take advantage of three ball-dominant stars in Melo, Lebron, and Irving.
Normally I would agree on your Melo comment, but Melo is late in his career and has already started playing more of a team game this year for the first time. He also has history with Lebron that might make them both less territorial.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #202 on: February 14, 2016, 06:06:18 AM »

Offline CroCorvus

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 579
  • Tommy Points: 41
If they get Melo the Cavs will probably be a better team but not by much in my opinion. They don't gain anything on the defensive end. He will need time to adapt. Doubt he can be as good third option as Bosh was...

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #203 on: February 14, 2016, 06:06:27 AM »

Offline CroCorvus

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 579
  • Tommy Points: 41
Plus generally people tend to underestimate Bosh's value to that Miami Heat team.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #204 on: February 14, 2016, 06:25:50 AM »

Offline chambers

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7482
  • Tommy Points: 943
  • Boston Celtics= Championships, nothing less.
The latest reports are saying that the Celtics have definitely talked with the Cavs about Love but New York/ Melo hasn't been involved at all.

"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #205 on: February 14, 2016, 07:43:20 AM »

Offline rondohondo

  • NCE
  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10756
  • Tommy Points: 1196
Not sure how tied in he is , but Ryan Rusillo said he is hearing the c's will be very aggressive at the deadline.

He said the c's are going after love because they want to acquire a star player who is already under contract for a number of years .

That tells me that they would give up the 2016 brk pick for Love , but not Howard or Horford because they are older and free agents 
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 07:53:22 AM by rondohondo »

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #206 on: February 14, 2016, 08:01:27 AM »

Offline greece66

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7395
  • Tommy Points: 1342
  • Head Paperboy at Greenville
Not sure how tied in he is , but Ryan Rusillo said he is hearing the c's will be very aggressive at the deadline.

He said the c's are going after love because they want to acquire a star player who is already under contract for a number of years .

That tells me that they would give up the 2016 brk pick for Love , but not Howard or Horford because they are older and free agents

^ this makes perfect sense. absolutely no point to give up assets for players who will become FAs in a few months.

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #207 on: February 14, 2016, 08:26:43 AM »

Offline mctyson

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5087
  • Tommy Points: 372
I said it before and I will say it again.  Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love.  This is NOT HAPPENING.

He facilitated Kevin Love getting to Cleveland though...

I can't remember the specifics there, but Danny did facilitate Lebron to Cleveland.  So long as the Celtics do well, I don't think he cares all that much about who else gets helped.

This is not a just comparison. The Celtics were not competing in the East at that time.  Danny did the exactly what a great GM does in that situation and got future assets during a rebuild. 

The Celtics will not "do well" if they give up a potential top 3 draft pick, maybe #1 overall, to help Cleveland replace Love with Carmelo Anthony.  While there is no doubt that Love on the Cs makes the team better, we will have to give up substantial draft/young player assets to make that happen (hurting the future of the team), and in my opinion (which could be wrong) we do not improve our top outcome at all which is winning the East.  A healthy Lebron/Melo/Iriving trio is as good as it gets talent wise.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 08:37:15 AM by mctyson »

Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #208 on: February 14, 2016, 08:33:07 AM »

Offline mctyson

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5087
  • Tommy Points: 372
I said it before and I will say it again.  Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love.  This is NOT HAPPENING.

He facilitated Kevin Love getting to Cleveland though...

I can't remember the specifics there, but Danny did facilitate Lebron to Cleveland.  So long as the Celtics do well, I don't think he cares all that much about who else gets helped.
We got Isaiah Thomas by using a player and a draft pick we got for facilitating Lebron going to Cleveland. Anyone who gave Danny flack for that has since looked extremely foolish.

Danny only cares about making the Celtics better and Kevin love absolutely does that.

This is correct, and why his facilitating that move was a good idea.  When you get picks/contracts back in a deal like that you can always flip them again later for a player who is locked up long term.  When you are rebuilding that is exactly what you do.

I have no issue for similarly trying to trade picks/contracts for Kevin Love - I think he would be a perfect fit on the Cs and would make them a mid-50s win team possibly this year.  The issue is that the goal is to win the East at that point...and I think it becomes just as hard, if not harder, with Melo on the Cavs.  I think Danny believes that too, and I have no proof to back that up.


Re: Cavs, Knicks ,C's blockbuster in the works?(NY Daily News)
« Reply #209 on: February 14, 2016, 09:12:48 AM »

Offline chambers

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7482
  • Tommy Points: 943
  • Boston Celtics= Championships, nothing less.
I said it before and I will say it again.  Danny Ainge is NOT facilitating a Melo-to-Cleveland deal, and giving up the 2016 nets pick, just to get Kevin Love.  This is NOT HAPPENING.

Giving up the 2016 Nets pick for Love would undo all of the great things Ainge he's done these past few years.

Given the amount of potential in that pick, and the amount of risk in Love, that trade would have a reasonably high probability of going down in the history as one of the worst trades ever made.


That's pretty harsh Crim.
The Nets are likely going to finish with the 4th worst record. The pick could be # 6 or #7.

Once that pick is gone, we lose most of our ability to trade for a player of Love's caliber.

It's a gamble both ways- and the bigger gamble is holding out for Simmons or Ingram, and then waiting/hoping for them to turn into a top 10 player.

I don't think it's harsh at all. 

The Nets are currently tied for the 3rd worst record in the NBA, they have the third worst point differential (often an indicator of how competitive a team is) and they are 3-7 over their past 10 games.  Put all that together and I can't see any teams outside of Philly, Lakers and Suns realistically finishing the season worse then they are.

The team that finishes with the worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 25%
#2 pick: 21.5%
#3 pick: 17.8%
#4 pick: 35.7%
#5 pick: 0%

This team has a 46.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 64.3% chance at a top 3 pick, and is guaranteed a top 4 pick.


The team that finishes with the second worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 19.9%
#2 pick: 18.8%
#3 pick: 17.1%
#4 pick: 31.9%
#5 pick: 12.3%
#6 pick: 0%

This team has a 38.7% chance at a top 2 pick, a 55.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 70.6% chance at a top 4 pick, and is guaranteed a top 5 pick.


The team that finishes with the third worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 15.6%
#2 pick: 15.7%
#3 pick: 15.6%
#4 pick: 22.6%
#5 pick: 26.5%
#6 pick: 4%
#7 pick: 0%

This team has a 31.3% chance at a top 2 pick, a 46.9% chance at a top 3 pick, a 69.5% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 96% chance at a top 5 pick.   


The team that finishes with the 4th worst record has the following odds:

#1 Pick: 11.9%
#2 pick: 12.6%
#3 pick: 13.3%
#4 pick: 9.9%
#5 pick: 35.1%
#6 pick: 16.0%
#7 pick: 1.2%
#8 pick: 0%

This team has a 24.5% chance at a top 2 pick, a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick, a 47.7% change at a top 4 pick, an 82.8% at a top 5 pick, a 69.5%, and a 99% chance at a top 6 pick. 


So assuming the top two spots are far and away the most valuable in the draft, here is the probability of each team (at current standings) landing a top 2 pick:

76ers: 46.5%
Lakers: 38.7%
Nets:  31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)
Suns: 31.3% / 24.5% (depending on tiebreaker)

Looking at those odds, the probably in landing a top 2 pick doesn't differ very much at all for the 2rd worst team (38.7%) vs the 3rd worst team (31.3%).

Even the worst team (46.5) isn't a huge amount more likely to get #1 than the third worst team. 

Once you slip into 4th worst spot the odds get worse, but are still very decent. 

Once you slip further than 4th last the odds are very low, but certainly not impossible (just ask Wiggins and Tim Duncan). 

Looking at this, if we do finish bottom 3 with that Nets pick (which is very much possible) then that pick is almost as valuable as a the Lakers pick and Pick...and the odds at falling top too is not really that much lower. 

If we traded for Love and the Nets finish bottom three, and they DO happen to get a top 2 pick in the lottery, then we are giving up legit superstar potential (and a potential franchise player) for the sake of taking on a 27 year old borderline all-star who is constantly injured and probably doesn't make us a contender. 

Low reward imho (as I doubt Love puts us over the top) and high risk (because we are risking a potential franchise player to get him). 

If Love continues his current trend of statistical decline, and we DO end up giving a pick that becomes the next Karl Anthony Towns / Anthony Davis / Kevin Durant level talent, then Danny is going to look really bad...and if Love ends up continuing to prove he's in capapable of leading a team (or staying healthy), then it could become one of the most lopsided trades ever.   

For example, imagine if Cleveland in 2013/14 at the deadline traded their pick (they finished with the 8th worst record) to the Celtics for Rajon Rondo...

Then Rondo put up a the same season numbers he did in Dallas, and Boston ended up pulling Wiggins with the Cleveland pick.

Can you imagine how bad that would have made Cleveland management look?  I know real world that makes no sense because Clevleand had Irving, but just still just an example of how trading a low lottery pick for a high risk star could go very pear shaped.

Trading out Brooklyn first for Love could easily go a similar way given Loves decline in effectiveness over the years, he's well documented history of never winning anything, and his tendency to be constantly injured.

That's a great summary, TP for that. 
Here's the other side of the coin, the other perspective.
Right now the Nets are likely to finish with a better record than the Suns given their SOS and the Suns rapid free fall.
Having the 4th worst record gives us a 25% shot at a top 2 pick.

We have a 74% chance at a pick between #3 and #6...and I'm not so confident the guy we pick there will ever be 75% of the player that Love is.
Or we have Kevin Love in his prime, locked up in a long term contract.

The odds are that Simmons and Ingram will not be as good as Kevin Love, ever.
The odds are significantly greater that whoever we pick between #3 and #6 will never be as good as Kevin Love.

Personally, I don't care if we decide to gamble on getting Simmons or Ingram, but I can completely understand if we go after Love with the Brooklyn pick and make the safe play.

I just strongly disagree with the narrative that if Danny somehow trades the pick for Kevin Love that it could be one of the worst trades in history or make all his hard work over the past few years worthless.

There are plenty of us that believe (as Danny does), that Kevin Love in the Brad Stevens offense with our defenders around him, is a top 10 NBA player averaging at least 24 points and 10 rebounds per game, and that this is the PERFECT offense and coach for him.

I can understand if you would rather gamble on getting the top 2 pick- I'm down with that, but playing it safe and getting a 27/28 year old Love locked up long term would be an absolutely amazing feat from trading away Pierce and KG a few years ago.

If you don't want Love here I feel for you because I think deep down we all know that Ainge will trade that pick for Kevin Love if he can- the problem is getting Cleveland to take a top 5 pick for a guy they gave up the #1 pick for and them asking for Crowder or Bradley to ease the pain.

I certainly don't want to give up the Brooklyn pick and Crowder or Bradley, but just the pick in a three way trade will be fine with me.

The clash of thought here mainly arises on what each of us think Kevin Love can ultimately be as a Celtic. You don't think he can be a top 10 player here, whereas I think he can be.
Sometimes great minds don't think a like  8) ;)
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 09:20:40 AM by chambers »
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.