Author Topic: Sullinger's defense  (Read 4101 times)

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Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2016, 05:58:38 PM »

Offline chambers

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Sullinger is:

*an immovable force in the post on D. You must shoot over him because you can't back him down.
*a very intelligent defender and uses his quick hands very well.
*is one of the best rebounders in the league and stops opponents from getting second shots, thus this great per/100 stat.

He's improved but it also helps that he's got Amir and Crowder to help in switches, so he's more motivated to defend properly now that it's not just Kelly, Bass or Zeller letting the opponents just walk to the basket on switches.

Remember how good he was with KG next to him?

I still think he gets way too many BS/ticky tack fouls called against him. When he finally gets some respect from NBA refs he'll get even more confidence.
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Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2016, 06:11:29 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Defensive Rating
1.   Hassan Whiteside ▪ MIA   93.2
2.   Tim Duncan ▪ SAS   93.4
3.   Kawhi Leonard ▪ SAS   94.4
4.   Andre Drummond ▪ DET   96.6
5.   LaMarcus Aldridge ▪ SAS   97.8
6.   Paul Millsap ▪ ATL   97.9
7.   Danny Green ▪ SAS   97.9
8.   Jared Sullinger ▪ BOS   97.9
9.   DeAndre Jordan ▪ LAC   98.2
10.   Pau Gasol ▪ CHI   99.0


Sully is 8th in the entire league in defensive rating.  His defense is almost never pointed out so I figured I would point it out.
Is this from BBRef? It's worthless.

Why?
Because the team component in the calculation is so strong that it tells you next to nothing about the actual individual defensive ability of the player.

It's also a box score calculation, so in general players that post some defensive stats and play on teams that are strong defensively will score high.

Why wouldn't you expect players who post defensive stats and play on strong defenses to score high on a non-worthless defensive metric? What are the defensive metrics you prefer?
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Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2016, 06:14:04 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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*an immovable force in the post on D. You must shoot over him because you can't back him down.
Unfortunately for him, this is not exactly a tall order, given that (a) he's short, and (b) he can't really get off the ground.
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Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2016, 06:21:57 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Why wouldn't you expect players who post defensive stats and play on strong defenses to score high on a non-worthless defensive metric? What are the defensive metrics you prefer?
I don't think you understand what the problem is. Generally speaking, BBRef's metric will overestimate the ability of poor defensive players that play on good defensive teams, and vice versa. That's why you have 4 different San Antonio Spurs on this list.

I don't think there is a great catchall defensive metric exists, short of some sort of video-related, player-tracking thing that may exist on NBA.com that I'm not aware of yet.  Of all the not-so-great ones, I prefer opposing player's PER, because it at least attempts to consider matchups -- but even that's not good enough, because it does nothing to  capture help defense, soft zones, etc.
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Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #19 on: February 11, 2016, 07:09:34 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Remember how good he was with KG next to him?

On D, LOL that was hilarious. He did not play better D until this year.

Quote
*an immovable force in the post on D. You must shoot over him because you can't back him down.
*a very intelligent defender and uses his quick hands very well.
*is one of the best rebounders in the league and stops opponents from getting second shots, thus this great per/100 stat.

Hard to argue with most of this, it is great when he is healthy and in shape enough to stay on the floor.  I would argue that he hardly contains all big men, that some light him up bigtime.

He won't be making 1st, 2nd or even 7th NBA all defensive team anytime soon.

Are folks aware that MIA is generally worse on D, when Whiteside in there.

Also, if Sully is so great on D, why does CBS play offense/Defense with him and take him out during critical defensive possessions.  I am guessing lack of trust, and his advanced stats?   I am sure he is not doing it at random.

Sully has improved on D, but he is hardly all NBA.  That being said, he is probably the best guy we have at denying post position.  He can push a man off the block.   But I think we could upgrade, get a guy who can rebound about as good, defend, add rim protection and shoot a better percentage if the Horford rumors are true.

Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2016, 07:21:43 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Why wouldn't you expect players who post defensive stats and play on strong defenses to score high on a non-worthless defensive metric? What are the defensive metrics you prefer?
I don't think you understand what the problem is. Generally speaking, BBRef's metric will overestimate the ability of poor defensive players that play on good defensive teams, and vice versa. That's why you have 4 different San Antonio Spurs on this list.

I don't think there is a great catchall defensive metric exists, short of some sort of video-related, player-tracking thing that may exist on NBA.com that I'm not aware of yet.  Of all the not-so-great ones, I prefer opposing player's PER, because it at least attempts to consider matchups -- but even that's not good enough, because it does nothing to  capture help defense, soft zones, etc.

So then just compare said player to everyone else on his team...

Sully has the best defensive rating on the Celtics and it's not even close.  He's was an absolute steal getting drafted at 21.

Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2016, 07:23:26 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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Defensive Rating
1.   Hassan Whiteside ▪ MIA   93.2
2.   Tim Duncan ▪ SAS   93.4
3.   Kawhi Leonard ▪ SAS   94.4
4.   Andre Drummond ▪ DET   96.6
5.   LaMarcus Aldridge ▪ SAS   97.8
6.   Paul Millsap ▪ ATL   97.9
7.   Danny Green ▪ SAS   97.9
8.   Jared Sullinger ▪ BOS   97.9
9.   DeAndre Jordan ▪ LAC   98.2
10.   Pau Gasol ▪ CHI   99.0


Sully is 8th in the entire league in defensive rating.  His defense is almost never pointed out so I figured I would point it out.
Is this from BBRef? It's worthless.

Why?
Because the team component in the calculation is so strong that it tells you next to nothing about the actual individual defensive ability of the player.

It's also a box score calculation, so in general players that post some defensive stats and play on teams that are strong defensively will score high.

ESpn's RPM is supposed to filter out team effects by adjusting for the other players on the court.  By that, Sully is 13th among Centers, so solid but not elite.  That list is:

Duncan
Jordan
Bogut
Mahinimi
Biyombo
Gasol
Drummond
Whiteside
Gobert
Pachulia
Cousins
Howard
Sully

KO is just behind at 16th.

Here's the link:  http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/9

Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2016, 07:32:55 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Quote
Remember how good he was with KG next to him?

On D, LOL that was hilarious. He did not play better D until this year.

Mostly because of focus and effort, not really because of lack of ability to do so. Also, injuries and fatness.

Worth pointing out that his impact defensively in his rookie season was off the bench, not playing alongside Garnett. When Garnett went to the bench and Sullinger held his own was when we finally began having a worthwhile big man rotation. It was important through that stretch.

Sully was pretty bad early in the season, but once he got used to the rotations and what not, he became very good until he went down.

I may be wrong on this one, but he was also very good at taking charges back then. I haven't seen much of that since. Probably because he got fatter.

But once he returned last season, one could tell his defensive focus was back on, hobbled as he was, but it was noticeable. I think once you notice that you could expect that there was going to be a big improvement this season defensively.

Just has to keep at it and not lose sight of it.

Quote
Quote
*an immovable force in the post on D. You must shoot over him because you can't back him down.
*a very intelligent defender and uses his quick hands very well.
*is one of the best rebounders in the league and stops opponents from getting second shots, thus this great per/100 stat.

Hard to argue with most of this, it is great when he is healthy and in shape enough to stay on the floor.  I would argue that he hardly contains all big men, that some light him up bigtime.

He won't be making 1st, 2nd or even 7th NBA all defensive team anytime soon.

Are folks aware that MIA is generally worse on D, when Whiteside in there.

Also, if Sully is so great on D, why does CBS play offense/Defense with him and take him out during critical defensive possessions.  I am guessing lack of trust, and his advanced stats?   I am sure he is not doing it at random.

Sully has improved on D, but he is hardly all NBA.  That being said, he is probably the best guy we have at denying post position.  He can push a man off the block.   But I think we could upgrade, get a guy who can rebound about as good, defend, add rim protection and shoot a better percentage if the Horford rumors are true.

He really doesn't get to play in the offense/defense game Stevens does. Mostly it's played with Olynyk and Amir, Sullinger is rarely there when that's at stake.

Variety of reasons for that not necessarily because of lack of trust, but it could be. One, we're usually playing small at that point, and speed is crucial. In small ball Sullinger's defense is putrid, with few exceptions, so the right call is to play Amir there.

Secondly, well KO is better offensively and spreads the floor better.

So he's rarely there for those offense/defense scenarios, and usually not the player inserted on the offensive side of the ball as it is. If Stevens is playing match-ups, he's usually inserted in the defensive side when match-ups call for it.

But otherwise, I don't think Sully has been looked for in those moments all that much mostly because we go small. That aside, I'd be guessing but I won't discount anything.

I think the defensive impact he's bringing to this team is undeniable in my opinion, but it's not for all situations. And it's certainly not flawless.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 07:49:12 PM by BudweiserCeltic »

Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2016, 07:49:12 PM »

Offline Rosco917

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I suspect this is the result of Sully playing center, where he presents "the great wall of Sully" a low center of gravity, with a wide thick base. Sully must be difficult to get around, and push around.

Monroe, who exposed him, is quick enough to spin around him, but most centers try to shoot over him, which is difficult when he has pushed them to a spot less comfortable.


Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2016, 09:27:54 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Why wouldn't you expect players who post defensive stats and play on strong defenses to score high on a non-worthless defensive metric? What are the defensive metrics you prefer?
I don't think you understand what the problem is. Generally speaking, BBRef's metric will overestimate the ability of poor defensive players that play on good defensive teams, and vice versa. That's why you have 4 different San Antonio Spurs on this list.

Two of those Spurs unquestionably deserve to be there, though, right? And those two are several points ahead of their teammates. Why would Sullinger similarly rate ahead of his teammates? And while they may not really be top 10 defenders in the league, are Aldridge and Green not good defenders? Isn't defense additive, so that average defenders when situated next to multiple really good defenders may in fact wind up playing much better defense, too?

Quote
I don't think there is a great catchall defensive metric exists, short of some sort of video-related, player-tracking thing that may exist on NBA.com that I'm not aware of yet.  Of all the not-so-great ones, I prefer opposing player's PER, because it at least attempts to consider matchups -- but even that's not good enough, because it does nothing to  capture help defense, soft zones, etc.

And how does Sullinger's opponent's PER stack up to his teammates and the rest of the league? How many not-so-great metrics would Sullinger have to do well in to suggest he's actually a good defender? Or are we supposed to start from eye test premise that Sully is not a good defender and then use that knowledge to cast doubt on any metric that suggests otherwise?
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Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #25 on: February 11, 2016, 11:05:58 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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A couple of games ago he was 5th. The interesting thing is that he's also a few whole points better than the Celtics' next best players. So he's not necessarily piggybacking. Is it just a byproduct of being the leading defensive rebounder on a great defensive team where most of the defense is coming from guards and wings whose impact isn't really captured by box score metrics? Or is he legitimately that good of a defender? What do the other advanced stats say?

Real Plus Minus has him at +3.76 on defense, which is 13th among centers and 16th among all NBA players.

Seems to, for the most part, concur with the Defensive Rating.

I don't think there's any denying that Sully can be great on defense.  His defense does drop off at times sure, but for the most part it's fairly solid. 

I think the problem with Sully these days is actually his offense, not his defense.  His offense has been pretty trash.  In fact this might be the worst offensive season of his career on a per minute basis.

Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #26 on: February 11, 2016, 11:11:54 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Has really improved.  Needs to keep developing his body

Agreed with this. Does he have a thyroid issue or something? I think it would almost take some effort to gain weight during the season, which he consistently seems to do.

Regardless, Sully has had a great season relative to expectations.

I disagree. 

He's improved defensively and on the boards, I'll give him that. But offensively he's been horrible.  Like really, really horrible.  Mostly a result of poor shot selection and poor general decision making IMHO rather than actual ability. 

Unfortunately his offense tends to become it's most horrible at the end of games, when we need him most.  That's the part that frustrates me.  He'll play well all game, then at some point he'll take a really stupid shot or make a really stupid foul that plays a major role in us losing the game.

The weight issues aren't even the part that bothers me.  I wouldn't care about that if he could improve his shot selection and stop playing hero ball (he should NOT be taking 15 FGA Per 36 the way he's shooting it).  If he learnt to play fundamentally sound asketball, he could be a really good player - like Al Horford good. 

Sully also needs to find a way to put more pressure on the paint.  A guy as big and strong as he is should NOT be shooting 57% inside three feet and should NOT have a 19% Free throw rate.  That's just atrocious for a guy who's biggest hype (coming into the league) was his post game and ability to dominate inside.  He needs to talk do 1-on-1 training sessions with Amir Johnson, David Lee and Kelly Olynyk on how to get shots off around the basket paint without having superior length.

In his rookie year Sully shot 67% inside three feet, had a half respectable 28% Free Throw Rate, and only took 2% of his shots from outside the three point line - hence why he shot almost 50% from the field and had a half respectable scoring efficiency of 1.2 Points Per FGA (versus a horribly bad 1.02 this year).

This year his 3PA are down to the point where not they only make up 15% of his attempts.  I can live with that number, that's reasonable...but he's got to find that touch around the basket and get his efficiency up.
 
When you don't get to the line, don't hit threes and can't score at a high percentage in the paint...that's a recipe for offensive disaster. His passing ability and respectable midrange jumper are really the only things stopping him from becoming a major liability on offense. 

I must admit, I am a bit hard on Sully sometimes.  He does do a lot of good things out there, and you can't expect anybody to be perfect.  He's just so frustrating sometimes though, because I feel that most of the flaws in his games are a result of mental lapses that could be avoided. 

I can accept when a guy struggles because of lack of outright talent, but does the best with what he has.  With Sully I get frustrated because I feel like he has the talent, and he just doesn't make the most of it.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 11:38:25 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #27 on: February 11, 2016, 11:24:52 PM »

Offline Alleyoopster

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Not going to argue that he plays good defense. But, there are players he simply can't guard...one is Marcus Aldridge. He also had mega-trouble defending in Milwaukee against Giannis and Monroe.

Realistically, he shouldn't be counted on forever as the stopping force against other big-bigs, e.g., Mozgov, Valanciunas, Towns, Cousins, etc. He may do well against them in individual games, but to count on him to play effectively in a 7 game series would be rough.   

Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #28 on: February 11, 2016, 11:49:19 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Not going to argue that he plays good defense. But, there are players he simply can't guard...one is Marcus Aldridge. He also had mega-trouble defending in Milwaukee against Giannis and Monroe.

Realistically, he shouldn't be counted on forever as the stopping force against other big-bigs, e.g., Mozgov, Valanciunas, Towns, Cousins, etc. He may do well against them in individual games, but to count on him to play effectively in a 7 game series would be rough.

Yeah, he can do pretty well against more traditional big men who depend on pure size and brute force (Okafor, Cousins, etc), but he struggles against skilled 'finesse' bigs - especially ones with length, and ones who have dangerous mid-range jumpers.

Lamarcus Aldridge has an extremely skilled finesse game, has elite length (7'5" wingspan), has a deadly mid-range game, and is very mobile for a big man.  That is pretty much Sully's worst nightmare. 

In fact even Thad Young has given him some troublesome nights.

That's why i feel like Sully really needs a long and highly mobile big man alongside him.  Doesn't need to be somebody with extreme athleticism, just somebody with solid lateral mobility who also has the length to bother shots.  I think Amir and Kelly both work pretty well next to him for those reasons, but those duo's just aren't good enough to take a team far.

 

Re: Sullinger's defense
« Reply #29 on: February 11, 2016, 11:57:05 PM »

Offline Kuberski33

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Has really improved.  Needs to keep developing his body
I'm not sure how much his body has developed but his defense and hustle are vastly improved.