Poll

Would you trade Marcus Smart for the unprotected 2016 Suns pick?

Yes
7 (15.2%)
No
39 (84.8%)

Total Members Voted: 46

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Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« on: February 10, 2016, 04:36:39 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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There's a couple threads right now debating the value of the Brooklyn 1st compared to prospects like Jabari Parker and Jahlil Okafor.

The Nets are even with the Suns.  Highly likely that the Suns will finish with a worse record (since the Suns are in tank-mode and the Nets have no incentive to lose).   

So as-is, a 4th-to-worst Nets team would have the following lotto odds:

#1 pick - 11.9%
#2 pick - 12.6%
#3 pick - 13.3%
#4 pick - 9.9%
#5 pick - 35.1%
#6 pick - 16%

The Suns pick would presumably have even better odds if they finish 3rd-to-worst:

#1 - 15.5%
#2 - 15.7%
#3 - 15.6%
#4 - 22.6%
#5 - 26.5%
#6 - 4%


It just got me curious... is the reverse true?  Is a probable top 5 pick in this draft more valuable than most promising young prospects already in the league?  How many of you would trade Marcus Smart right now for the Suns unprotected 2016 1st?  Surely if the Brooklyn pick is more valuable than Okafor or Parker, then the Suns pick should be more valuable than Marcus Smart, right? 

Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2016, 04:38:51 PM »

Offline KeepRondo

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I would but only because we have a horse in the race and adding another horse would give us two horses. And two horses is better than one horse if you want a better chance at winning the race.

Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2016, 04:40:39 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I would but only because we have a horse in the race and adding another horse would give us two horses. And two horses is better than one horse if you want a better chance at winning the race.
really good point. 

That would give us 275 out of 1001 possible lotto combos (if the Suns and Nets held at the 3rd and 4th worst records).   It would decrease our chance of not getting Ben Simmons from 88.1% to 72.5%. 

Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2016, 04:42:21 PM »

Offline ssspence

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I understand your interest in the topic, but the fact is these trades just don't really happen (unless I've missed one). While the risk / reward may be fun to talk about, no GM is willing to risk the egg on their face should they trade away what turns out to be the #1 pick.
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Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2016, 04:43:29 PM »

Offline KeepRondo

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I would but only because we have a horse in the race and adding another horse would give us two horses. And two horses is better than one horse if you want a better chance at winning the race.
really good point. 

That would give us 275 out of 1001 possible lotto combos (if the Suns and Nets held at the 3rd and 4th worst records).   It would decrease our chance of not getting Ben Simmons from 88.1% to 72.5%.
Yeah duh. Everyone knows you go with two horses.

Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2016, 04:44:37 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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I understand your interest in the topic, but the fact is these trades just don't really happen (unless I've missed one). While the risk / reward may be fun to talk about, no GM is willing to risk the egg on their face should they trade away what turns out to be the #1 pick.

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Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2016, 04:46:49 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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Yes.


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Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2016, 04:49:35 PM »

Offline max215

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I'll stick with Marcus.
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Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2016, 04:50:01 PM »

Online Who

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I wouldn't trade Smart for Jabari Parker or Jahlil Okafor.

So Smart has more value in my eyes than either of those players do.

In terms of trading for the Suns pick. I tend to view it more as being a near guaranteed top 5 pick than gambling on the chance of getting a top two pick. I think more risk-taker traders would rate the unprotected pick higher than me whereas I would focus on the possible low outcomes. More risk adverse.

So with all that said:

If I were Philly I would be willing to trade J.Okafor for their pick. I build around Noel as my future center and I trade away J.Okafor and J.Embiid for as much as I can get for them. I think the Suns unprotected pick would be a good return for J.Okafor.

If I were Milwaukee, I am unsure about trading J.Parker for the pick. I would need to know more about the guys in the 3-6 range before I was ready to make that decision. I expect that Parker will compare reasonably well to some of those players. Kris Dunn could be really good for Milwaukee. I don't know enough about Bender yet and undecided on just how much I like Jaylen Brown / Skal / Poeltl.

I think with Parker as with Smart, I would me more willing to trade them on draft day for a specific player I really wanted (for example, Jabari for K.Dunn) than for an unknown pick which could leave me without any of the specific players I truly want.

Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2016, 04:51:57 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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I would but only because we have a horse in the race and adding another horse would give us two horses. And two horses is better than one horse if you want a better chance at winning the race.
really good point. 

That would give us 275 out of 1001 possible lotto combos (if the Suns and Nets held at the 3rd and 4th worst records).   It would decrease our chance of not getting Ben Simmons from 88.1% to 72.5%.
Yeah duh. Everyone knows you go with two horses.
More than that.

With two shots at it we have a 56% chance at a top 2 pick.
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Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2016, 04:53:26 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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No ....no .....no...

I the ONlY way I could land ADavis ....yes ...I d offer everything or anything we have.


Problem is we need him to play a guard position , he needs to be on the floor , him and Crowder to make everybody play defense.


Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2016, 05:00:25 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I wouldn't trade Smart for Jabari Parker or Jahlil Okafor.

Well that's an interesting wrinkle... the idea that Marcus Smart has more trade value than Jabari Parker or Jahlil Okafor. 

Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2016, 05:01:58 PM »

Offline Big_Dave31

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I would but only because we have a horse in the race and adding another horse would give us two horses. And two horses is better than one horse if you want a better chance at winning the race.

Ask Rick Pitino how this strategy went back in '97.

Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2016, 05:07:06 PM »

Offline Bucketgetter

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I wouldn't trade Smart for Jabari Parker or Jahlil Okafor.

Well that's an interesting wrinkle... the idea that Marcus Smart has more trade value than Jabari Parker or Jahlil Okafor.
It's a wrong wrinkle lol.
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Re: Would you trade Smart for the 2016 Suns pick?
« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2016, 05:09:22 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Nope. At the very least, Smart is going to be a high-end role player with elite defense, which is a sentiment that I think is nearly universally shared, and he's someone who positively impacts the game when he plays. Since we've already got one horse in the race, I'm not making that gamble that we trade him and the pick becomes outside of the top 5 or we pick the next Kwame Brown or Darko with it.