Man... I'm thrilled with how bad Brooklyn has been. Thanks to injuries, the worst-case scenario of Brooklyn making the playoffs is long gone. At this point, it's basically a lock to end up in the lottery.
But between this thread and the Jabari Parker thread, I really feel like people are still severely overrating that Brooklyn pick.
It's looking more-and-more likely that at the very least, the Suns will finish with a worst record. So even if Brooklyn fails to go on a mini run and stays in the 4th worst spot, you're looking at the following odds:
#1 pick - 11.9%
#2 pick - 12.6%
#3 pick - 13.3%
#4 pick - 9.9%
#5 pick - 35.1%
#6 pick - 16%
We're still learning things about this draft so perhaps someone like Dragan Bender will be a superstar someday. Maybe more "can't miss" prospects will be revealed. But I've also heard plenty negativity recently... that Ben Simmons can't shoot and has inflated stats due to playing on a mediocre program against mediocre competition... that Brandon Ingram is a few years away from being anything... that this draft might be pretty terrible outside those two guys.
So then we're talking about a guy like Okafor.
I got news for you... a year ago (I checked Draftexpress archived from Feb 15th 2015), Okafor was considered the consensus #1 pick on mock drafts.
So now midway through a rookie season the 20 year old is averaging 17 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 blocks with 49% shooting and 68% from the line... and some people think the pick is more valuable? Seriously?
If things hold as-is, we're looking at an 88.1% chance that we do NOT get Ben Simmons... and who knows how we'll even look at Ben Simmons a year from now.
I think it's fair to expect Okafor to be a 20/10 guy long term. Not sure about his defense, but his floor still seems to be Al Jefferson. He's already almost a 20/10 guy as a rookie on a dysfunctional team.
Say we land someone like Jaylen Brown with the 5th pick (our most likely draft position) and he puts up a Hezonja-esque 5 points, 2 rebounds and 1 steals. How much will that asset be worth then compared to Okafor?
It's not even a guarantee that Ben SImmons will have a better career than Jabari Parker or Jahlil Okafor... and yet people here still insist that Brooklyn pick is more valuable than either of those guys. I don't agree.
SIde note: It's hilarious that people here will suggest someone like 26 year old Jae Crowder has untapped star potential in the 5th year of his career, but then look at a 20 year old prospect 46 games into a pretty decent rookie season and act like he's a fully-formed player.
I'm just sayin that some of ya'll act like the obnoxious friend you take to Vegas who inexplicably goes on a hot streak and now he's too drunk to know when to walk away from the table and cash in his winnings.
"A chance at a star prospect like Okafor? NAaah!! Let it ride!!... Less than 10% chance at a guy who may or may not be better than him!! WOoOooo!!!" (Note: less than 10% chance, because you need to factor in the odds of additional teams falling below Brooklyn by the end of the season)
I'm just saying... February 10th, 2015 versions of you guys would be disgusted with this thread.
Hold up, I just used OSX Time Machine to backdate my digitized brain a whole year. Here's what the Feb 2015 version of CyberLarB had to say: "Wait a minute... you're telling me a year from now the consensus #1 pick Jahlil Okafor will be averaging 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1.2 blocks with 50% shooting in only 30 minutes with incredible touch around the rim... but I'll be unwilling to move a projected #5 pick for him? WHAT? That either means Okafor had a career ending injury or the 2016 draft is stacked with future hall of famers... Woah, is that because of that Thon Maker kid I keep hearing about??!"
There's a good chance that February 10th, 2017 versions of you guys are going to be equally disgusted with this thread.
I'm disgusted now with how you act like the Nets were devastated by injuries when they have been one of the healthiest teams in the NBA and their two best players have played in every game. It is childish and embarrassing.
5 man team. They lost 2 of them. One was their starting PG. The other was showing progress and arguably their best 2-way player (105 offensive rating was 2nd only to Lopez... 103 defensive rating 1st amongst starters)... For a team as shallow as the Nets, those injuries were basically the apocalypse. Any hope they had of making a bit of a run was squished. Great for us!
Unfortunately stats and reality are not your friend on this debate.
https://www.mangameslost.com/nba-games-missed-due-to-injury-february-9-2016/
What's interesting about that link you shared... in the "lost value over replacement player" category, the Hollis-Jefferson injury is 5th in the entire league. That's a bigger impact than games missed by Kyrie Irving (6th), games missed by Derrick Favors (7th) and games missed by Kevin Durant (8th). Shows you how losing two of their top 4 players can impact such a shallow team. If Hollis-Jefferson had continued to improve, your own site seems to suggest that the Nets would have been significantly better off.
Even negating the possibility that Hollis-Jefferson continued to improve, the team started to mesh, and they followed the 2014 path where they rallied and finished above .500.... Had they simply remained 8 games under .500 they'd have a record around 23-31... same amount of wins as the Wizards and flirting with a pick in the expected 12-17 range.
Luckily, the Nets have been mutilated with devastating injuries that have ravaged that desolate lineup and lay waste to their playoff hopes. Here's hoping they continue to stink and the pick stays projected in the top 5.
But yeah, i'd probably trade that pick for Okafor. Who knows where it will land. Okafor is a pretty nice and productive prospect already. I think Okafor has more trade value than that unknown pick at this point.