Sully, Jerebko and the Dallas pick for Z-Bo. Let's do it.
Let's for godsakes not do that.
Why? Doesn't cost us anything of enduring value --- Sully and Jerebko should be gone this summer, and we don't need another late 1st to clutter the roster -- and Z-Bo would give the Celts the kind of interior scoring presence I imagine they hoped to get with David Lee. Z-Bo is a pretty clear upgrade over Sullinger, and may actually cost less next year.
Makes the team better for the playoff run this year without having to sacrifice much. I don't really see a downside. Unless you think Sullinger is a keeper, I guess.
I think they would want Zeller and Sullinger though that would require another player for dollars. They want to make the playoffs I think and Zeller gives them a big body to fill in for Gasol in the short term. I'm not sure I'd do it in that situation.
Why? Well, for starters with Z-Bo we would have destroy Milwaukee last night...
I understand that someone of us don't like him for some subjective reasons, but the guy play ball...I have been saying that for a while now, but now it could be good time for a curve ball trade with Memphis...
A few reasons why I think this would be a bad trade.
AgeZach Randolph is 34 years old.
If you take a look at the career paths of players similar to Randolph (undersized, unathletic, offensive minded bigs) then you will find that they very rarely maintain strong production past the age of 34.
Perfect current day examples of this are David Lee (32), David West (35) and Carlos Boozer (33).
David Lee's playing time (and hence, production) dropped off strongly once he hit 31, and so far hasn't recovered. For Boozer his production and playing time dropped off heavily this year (at age 33). For David West his production and playing time dropped off heavily this year, at age 35.
If these patterns are anything to go off, Zach Randolph would be lucky to have 12 more months of solid, starting caliber production left in him. His minutes, scoring and rebounding have all dropped off to the point where they are around the lowest they have been since since he was a sophomore in the 2002/03 season.
Once guys get to this point in their career, their big "drop off a cliff" in production often comes very quickly, and very strongly. Z-Bo is averaging 14/8 in 29 minutes this year, and his defense has already degraded to the point of being really, really bad. Next year, if historical trends are anything to go off, he may well be averaging 9 points and 5 rebounds in 20 minutes as one of the worst defensive bigs in the NBA. At this point he's probably not an upgrade over Sully, which brings me to my next point...
SalaryZ-Bo has roughly $20M left on his contract over the next two years. That's big enough for it to potentially impact on our ability to make deals in free agency after the season. It probably won't, but if we try to go after two max contract guys, Z-Bo's $10M salary next year might be enough to stop us from being able to do that.
If he was still the 20/10 guy he once was then you'd take that...but he's not.
Sully is likely to leave next year, if so we lost him for nothing. But that's OK, because his contract situation gives us flexibility. We can trade him and try and get an asset back if a good deal comes along...and if one doesn't we can just let him go after the season and focus on free agent signings.
Trading Sully for Z-Bo means we are trading a young, productive player with upside on an expiring contract (good situation - flexibility)...for an old, declining player who could drop off any time, on a largish two year contract (bad situation - no flexibility).
So looking at the above, I'm pretty convinced that trading for Z-Bo puts us in a worse position not only now (less wins) but also in the future (less cap flexibility). To me, that makes it an instant no-go.
