Author Topic: Atlanta considering breaking up their core  (Read 8880 times)

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Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #30 on: February 09, 2016, 03:19:01 PM »

Offline rondohondo

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Horford would have to be a rental. It'd be irresponsible to re-sign him for five years at the new max, not to mention unlikely he'd even want to.

Don't agree Dino.

I think if Ainge could convince Horford to help him bring a premium FA to Boston this summer, he'd agree to give him the full 5 year max in exchange -- something no other team can do if he's traded here this season.

Is it overpaying? Sure. But if it achieves the end goal of actually signing two top tier guys and competing for a championship -- who care? Wyc will make that money back in spades....

I agree

you get Horford here for anything other than the brk picks, Crowder, Smart , and maybe bradley

leave us with a roster of

IT              / Smart
Bradley      / Turner
Crowder    / Jerebko
KO            / Amir
Horford     / Zeller

with cap space to go after Durant , after hopefully an ECF appearance this year .

Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #31 on: February 09, 2016, 03:24:06 PM »

Offline ssspence

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Horford would have to be a rental. It'd be irresponsible to re-sign him for five years at the new max, not to mention unlikely he'd even want to.

Don't agree Dino.

I think if Ainge could convince Horford to help him bring a premium FA to Boston this summer, he'd agree to give him the full 5 year max in exchange -- something no other team can do if he's traded here this season.

Is it overpaying? Sure. But if it achieves the end goal of actually signing two top tier guys and competing for a championship -- who cares? Wyc will make that money back in spades, and Ainge has managed the cap beautifully with other portions of the roster, plus a variety of nice picks to ensure rookie-scale players going forward.

Ainge waits for his moments to take risk, but he understands you have to to create a real shot. And having Horford onboard would make Boston is a REALLY attractive destination, when you factor all other elements.

I agree

you get Horford here for anything other than the brk picks, Crowder, Smart , and maybe bradley

leave us with a roster of

IT              / Smart
Bradley      / Turner
Crowder    / Jerebko
KO            / Amir
Horford     / Zeller

with cap space to go after Durant , after hopefully an ECF appearance this year .

mmmm i don't see Ainge trading Thomas or Olynyk for Horford. But I think you're barking up the right tree.
Mike

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Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #32 on: February 09, 2016, 03:28:26 PM »

Offline celts55

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Would Johnson, Bradley, Young, Celts 1st, for Horford and Korver be of interest?

Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #33 on: February 09, 2016, 03:31:49 PM »

Offline MJohnnyboy

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Would Johnson, Bradley, Young, Celts 1st, for Horford and Korver be of interest?

Absolutely not. That's too much value for an expiring and an aging player.

Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #34 on: February 09, 2016, 03:36:01 PM »

Offline MasterEmile

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Remember that sully is our only physical player down low. In the last 2 games he bullied around Tristan Thompson and Demarcus Cousins, I would be really hesitant to trade him even if Horford is coming back in the deal.

Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #35 on: February 09, 2016, 03:37:57 PM »

Offline ssspence

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Would Johnson, Bradley, Young, Celts 1st, for Horford and Korver be of interest?

Absolutely not. That's too much value for an expiring and an aging player.

Hard as it would be to let go of Bradley, Ainge does this deal (though I doubt ATL would). He basically just gives up Bradley -- not exactly a king's ransom.
Mike

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Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #36 on: February 09, 2016, 03:39:07 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Since people are concerned about losing Sullinger/Zeller for nothing, what about starting off with those two for Horford and Walter "Edy" Tavares, then thinking about adding elements such as draft picks, James Young, or Kyle Korver until the trade is balanced enough for both sides to be interested?

Would you rather have Sullinger and Zeller as restricted free agents where you can match any offer sheet they sign or Horford as an unrestricted free agent whose Bird rights allow you to outbid everyone else?  It probably depends on how much you are willing to give Sullinger/Zeller and how much you think the Brad Stevens Experience will make Horford want to stay in Boston.
If Atlanta took on Sullinger, they would still have the power to re-sign him this Summer, right?... Sullinger is a restricted free agent.  At least that guarantees that they could either give him a qualifying offer for a single season, extend him, or match any offer he gets.  They wouldn't lose Sullinger for nothing (whereas, Boston might need to renounce those rights if they go hard after two max contracts this Summer... so it's in their best interest to get rid of SUlly for value now).

Same with Zeller, right?  He's also a restricted free agent.  Atlanta would be able to retain him.

Horford, on the other hand, is an unrestricted free agent.  Hawks might lose Horford for nothing.  If they get a sense that Horford isn't coming back to Atlanta this Summer, they really should move him before the deadline.  Teams like Atlanta (presumably not a free agent destination) can't really let assets walk for nothing.

It's more likely that the Hawks will get a sense that it is 50-50 that Horford comes back or that he is almost certain to re-sign if they max him, but they are not sure if they want to commit to that much money for that long while risking losing him if they try to negotiate for less.  Horford's willingness to return is probably dependent on how the season plays out, so they shouldn't be able to get a clear sense of his likelihood of returning by the trade deadline.

For the Celtics, trading for Horford might increase their chances of being able to sign him and getting him to come down on his price if it allows for other moves.
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Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #37 on: February 09, 2016, 03:40:30 PM »

Offline Who

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Would you rather have Sullinger and Zeller as restricted free agents where you can match any offer sheet they sign or Horford as an unrestricted free agent whose Bird rights allow you to outbid everyone else? 
I don't want to out-bid other teams for Horford by giving him that 5th year.

At his age? As an undersized center? That 5th year scares me.

Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #38 on: February 09, 2016, 03:43:24 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Horford would have to be a rental. It'd be irresponsible to re-sign him for five years at the new max, not to mention unlikely he'd even want to.

Don't agree Dino.

I think if Ainge could convince Horford to help him bring a premium FA to Boston this summer, he'd agree to give him the full 5 year max in exchange -- something no other team can do if he's traded here this season.

Is it overpaying? Sure. But if it achieves the end goal of actually signing two top tier guys and competing for a championship -- who cares? Wyc will make that money back in spades, and Ainge has managed the cap beautifully with other portions of the roster, plus a variety of nice picks to ensure rookie-scale players going forward.

Ainge waits for his moments to take risk, but he understands you have to to create a real shot. And having Horford onboard would make Boston is a REALLY attractive destination, when you factor all other elements.

Sigh. You're probably right. It would probably wind up being a massive overpay in the 4th and 5th years, but if that means winning over Durant* and having a championship window in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd years then it'd be worth it. Besides, that 5th year he'd be an expiring contract at worst and could be moved along with whatever asset surplus Ainge has rebuilt by then for another star. And hey, there's a chance he'd be worth his contract (or close enough) all five years. He's not guaranteed to fall off a cliff. Alright, I'm talked into Horford long term...Let's be irresponsible and win a championship!

*Aside from Durant and Horford, there are no other premium free agents this summer who'll be changing teams. Horford would still make the Celtics a more attractive destination for the next tiers of free agent talent, as well as disgruntled stars who have a say in where they get traded.
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Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #39 on: February 09, 2016, 03:48:40 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Would you rather have Sullinger and Zeller as restricted free agents where you can match any offer sheet they sign or Horford as an unrestricted free agent whose Bird rights allow you to outbid everyone else? 
I don't want to out-bid other teams for Horford by giving him that 5th year.

At his age? As an undersized center? That 5th year scares me.

You forgot, "with his injury history?".

Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #40 on: February 09, 2016, 03:53:48 PM »

Offline rondohondo

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lee, Bradley Sully,dal pick,   for Horford and Korver does make a lot of sense

it             / turner
smart      / Korver
crowder   / jerebko
ko           / amir
horford    / zeller


we would add shooting / scoring to the bench and starters while keeping the wing defense of smart and crowder

Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #41 on: February 09, 2016, 03:57:40 PM »

Offline ssspence

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Horford would have to be a rental. It'd be irresponsible to re-sign him for five years at the new max, not to mention unlikely he'd even want to.

Don't agree Dino.

I think if Ainge could convince Horford to help him bring a premium FA to Boston this summer, he'd agree to give him the full 5 year max in exchange -- something no other team can do if he's traded here this season.

Is it overpaying? Sure. But if it achieves the end goal of actually signing two top tier guys and competing for a championship -- who cares? Wyc will make that money back in spades, and Ainge has managed the cap beautifully with other portions of the roster, plus a variety of nice picks to ensure rookie-scale players going forward.

Ainge waits for his moments to take risk, but he understands you have to to create a real shot. And having Horford onboard would make Boston is a REALLY attractive destination, when you factor all other elements.

Sigh. You're probably right. It would probably wind up being a massive overpay in the 4th and 5th years, but if that means winning over Durant* and having a championship window in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd years then it'd be worth it. Besides, that 5th year he'd be an expiring contract at worst and could be moved along with whatever asset surplus Ainge has rebuilt by then for another star. And hey, there's a chance he'd be worth his contract (or close enough) all five years. He's not guaranteed to fall off a cliff. Alright, I'm talked into Horford long term...Let's be irresponsible and win a championship!

*Aside from Durant and Horford, there are no other premium free agents this summer who'll be changing teams. Horford would still make the Celtics a more attractive destination for the next tiers of free agent talent, as well as disgruntled stars who have a say in where they get traded.

Key final point. Defining 'premium' should probably be done, and I think you're right as far as star talent.

Let's consider some scenarios. Would you trade Sully, Lee, Young, Dallas 1st, Cs 2016 1st and Philly 2016 2nd for the right to sign Horford to a max deal this summer, and (in some vague order of attractiveness):
  • Kevin Durant to a max contract? (given)
  • Harrison Barnes to a max offer sheet?
  • Demar DeRozen to a max contract?
  • Nicolas Batum to a big contract?
  • Chandler Parsons to a big contract?
  • Ryan Anderson to a big contract?
  • Dwayne Wade to a substantial contract? (gulp)
Mike

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Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #42 on: February 09, 2016, 04:05:36 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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What if the plan is to trade for Horford at the deadline, then trade for Blake Griffin (or maybe Cousins?) this summer?

Horford makes the most sense as a Pau Gasol type complement to a high-usage star.  Like Pau, I think his game is likely to age pretty well.  Then on top of that you have a ton of role players and draft picks to fill out the supporting cast.
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Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #43 on: February 09, 2016, 04:10:06 PM »

Offline ssspence

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What if the plan is to trade for Horford at the deadline, then trade for Blake Griffin (or maybe Cousins?) this summer?

Horford makes the most sense as a Pau Gasol type complement to a high-usage star.  Then you have a ton of role players and draft picks to fill out the supporting cast.

Or Hayward? Or Harris? Or McCollum? Or Middleton? Or Parker (just threw up in my mouth a lil bit)?
Mike

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Re: Atlanta considering breaking up their core
« Reply #44 on: February 09, 2016, 04:11:28 PM »

Offline MJohnnyboy

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Would Johnson, Bradley, Young, Celts 1st, for Horford and Korver be of interest?

Absolutely not. That's too much value for an expiring and an aging player.

Hard as it would be to let go of Bradley, Ainge does this deal (though I doubt ATL would). He basically just gives up Bradley -- not exactly a king's ransom.

I guess I'll have to agree to disagree. I think Avery Bradley and Amir Johnson are very valuable to this team because they form this team's identity and have great contracts in this day and age.

Switch Lee with Johnson and we'll start negotiating.