Poll

To get 50 wins we need to go 19 wins and 10 losses on our remaining games. Will they do it?

Yes
17 (51.5%)
No
16 (48.5%)

Total Members Voted: 33

Author Topic: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?  (Read 2588 times)

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Re: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?
« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2016, 10:43:12 AM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Judging by the schedule below i'd say they'll get pretty close to 50. I'm gonna say 20-9... If the Cs keep playing like they are I can't see why not!

@Milwaukee   === Trap Game
Los Angeles Clippers    == bounce back to catch the Clips while they're down
@Utah  -- Utah's fighting for #8 and they have a much better front line
@Denver  -- back to winning
@Minnesota  -- keep winning
Milwaukee -- payback for trap
Miami  -- close but win based on home court
Utah  -- payback
Portland  -- continue winning
NY Knicks  -- expecting to drill the Knicks -- hoping they don't get caught looking forward
@Cleveland     -- cleveland sends a message
Memphis  -- memphis fighting for seeding
Houston  -- houston fighting for playoffs
@Indiana -- fighting for seeding
Oklahoma City  -- it's OKC
@Toronto -- Toronto sending a message on their home court.  last game of losing streak
@Philadelphia  -- back to winning but closer than it should be
Orlando  -- keep winning
Toronto   Toronto sending a message on the road now
@Phoenix  -- Phx working hard on the tank
@Los Angeles Clippers   -- Clips for payback
@Portland  -- C's caught sleeping on a team that's performing better than expected
@Golden State  --- GSW - enough said but C's will push them
@Los Angeles Lakers -- let down from close GSW game and Kobe wants to win it
New Orleans  -- back to winning
Milwaukee  --continue winning
@Atlanta  -- Atlanta fighting for seeding on home court
Charlotte -- win again.  taking Frank the Tank looks like a real bad idea after this one
Miami  -- Miami fighting for seeding with everyone playing -- very close game
I think they'll get respectably close but ultimately, no, they won't get 50 for 2 reasons:

1. The C's are a jumpshooting team.  when they're hot, they can hang with any team.  When they're not, they can lose to anyone.  even giving them the benefit of the doubt that it will only happen say 25% of their remaining games rather than a third or half that's 7 games right there up for grabs regardless of the competition.
2. C's play to the level of their competition far too often.  for good teams, that's a good thing.  for lousy teams, that stinks.  We've seen them cough up wins to teams they should easily beat regardless of what kind of shooting night they're having.  Figure a likelihood of coughing up 2-3 wins to beatable teams just on this alone.

I've bolded the ones I suspect the C's to lose with commentary on how I think this will wind up.  It won't be popular

Nor should it be popular. It's gratuitously pessimistic. Apparently only other teams are capable of things like fighting for seeding or sending a message? Only the Celtics are susceptible to trap games? Based on current records, you have them winning one game where they'd be the underdog, and losing nine where they'd be the favorite. (My apologies if you're attempting a reverse-jinx.)
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Re: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2016, 11:06:24 AM »

Offline DarkAzcura

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Judging by the schedule below i'd say they'll get pretty close to 50. I'm gonna say 20-9... If the Cs keep playing like they are I can't see why not!

@Milwaukee   === Trap Game
Los Angeles Clippers    == bounce back to catch the Clips while they're down
@Utah  -- Utah's fighting for #8 and they have a much better front line
@Denver  -- back to winning
@Minnesota  -- keep winning
Milwaukee -- payback for trap
Miami  -- close but win based on home court
Utah  -- payback
Portland  -- continue winning
NY Knicks  -- expecting to drill the Knicks -- hoping they don't get caught looking forward
@Cleveland     -- cleveland sends a message
Memphis  -- memphis fighting for seeding
Houston  -- houston fighting for playoffs
@Indiana -- fighting for seeding
Oklahoma City  -- it's OKC
@Toronto -- Toronto sending a message on their home court.  last game of losing streak
@Philadelphia  -- back to winning but closer than it should be
Orlando  -- keep winning
Toronto   Toronto sending a message on the road now
@Phoenix  -- Phx working hard on the tank
@Los Angeles Clippers   -- Clips for payback
@Portland  -- C's caught sleeping on a team that's performing better than expected
@Golden State  --- GSW - enough said but C's will push them
@Los Angeles Lakers -- let down from close GSW game and Kobe wants to win it
New Orleans  -- back to winning
Milwaukee  --continue winning
@Atlanta  -- Atlanta fighting for seeding on home court
Charlotte -- win again.  taking Frank the Tank looks like a real bad idea after this one
Miami  -- Miami fighting for seeding with everyone playing -- very close game
I think they'll get respectably close but ultimately, no, they won't get 50 for 2 reasons:

1. The C's are a jumpshooting team.  when they're hot, they can hang with any team.  When they're not, they can lose to anyone.  even giving them the benefit of the doubt that it will only happen say 25% of their remaining games rather than a third or half that's 7 games right there up for grabs regardless of the competition.
2. C's play to the level of their competition far too often.  for good teams, that's a good thing.  for lousy teams, that stinks.  We've seen them cough up wins to teams they should easily beat regardless of what kind of shooting night they're having.  Figure a likelihood of coughing up 2-3 wins to beatable teams just on this alone.

I've bolded the ones I suspect the C's to lose with commentary on how I think this will wind up.  It won't be popular

Nor should it be popular. It's gratuitously pessimistic. Apparently only other teams are capable of things like fighting for seeding or sending a message? Only the Celtics are susceptible to trap games? Based on current records, you have them winning one game where they'd be the underdog, and losing nine where they'd be the favorite. (My apologies if you're attempting a reverse-jinx.)

Yeah, he has the Celtics going 3-12 against playoff teams the rest of the way (0 wins after February), which is a 20% winning percentage. Celtics currently have a ~39% winning percentage against 0.500+ teams. Like you said, it ignores that the Celtics also have something to "fight" for. It's kinda similar logic applied in the off-season where everyone thought the Celtics would fall off because every other team got healthy even though it ignored the Celtics' own health issues last season along with all of the roster turnover.

Re: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?
« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2016, 11:16:06 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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Judging by the schedule below i'd say they'll get pretty close to 50. I'm gonna say 20-9... If the Cs keep playing like they are I can't see why not!

@Milwaukee   === Trap Game
Los Angeles Clippers    == bounce back to catch the Clips while they're down
@Utah  -- Utah's fighting for #8 and they have a much better front line
@Denver  -- back to winning
@Minnesota  -- keep winning
Milwaukee -- payback for trap
Miami  -- close but win based on home court
Utah  -- payback
Portland  -- continue winning
NY Knicks  -- expecting to drill the Knicks -- hoping they don't get caught looking forward
@Cleveland     -- cleveland sends a message
Memphis  -- memphis fighting for seeding
Houston  -- houston fighting for playoffs
@Indiana -- fighting for seeding
Oklahoma City  -- it's OKC
@Toronto -- Toronto sending a message on their home court.  last game of losing streak
@Philadelphia  -- back to winning but closer than it should be
Orlando  -- keep winning
Toronto   Toronto sending a message on the road now
@Phoenix  -- Phx working hard on the tank
@Los Angeles Clippers   -- Clips for payback
@Portland  -- C's caught sleeping on a team that's performing better than expected
@Golden State  --- GSW - enough said but C's will push them
@Los Angeles Lakers -- let down from close GSW game and Kobe wants to win it
New Orleans  -- back to winning
Milwaukee  --continue winning
@Atlanta  -- Atlanta fighting for seeding on home court
Charlotte -- win again.  taking Frank the Tank looks like a real bad idea after this one
Miami  -- Miami fighting for seeding with everyone playing -- very close game
I think they'll get respectably close but ultimately, no, they won't get 50 for 2 reasons:

1. The C's are a jumpshooting team.  when they're hot, they can hang with any team.  When they're not, they can lose to anyone.  even giving them the benefit of the doubt that it will only happen say 25% of their remaining games rather than a third or half that's 7 games right there up for grabs regardless of the competition.
2. C's play to the level of their competition far too often.  for good teams, that's a good thing.  for lousy teams, that stinks.  We've seen them cough up wins to teams they should easily beat regardless of what kind of shooting night they're having.  Figure a likelihood of coughing up 2-3 wins to beatable teams just on this alone.

I've bolded the ones I suspect the C's to lose with commentary on how I think this will wind up.  It won't be popular

Nor should it be popular. It's gratuitously pessimistic. Apparently only other teams are capable of things like fighting for seeding or sending a message? Only the Celtics are susceptible to trap games? Based on current records, you have them winning one game where they'd be the underdog, and losing nine where they'd be the favorite. (My apologies if you're attempting a reverse-jinx.)

Yeah, he has the Celtics going 3-12 against playoff teams the rest of the way (0 wins after February), which is a 20% winning percentage. Celtics currently have a ~39% winning percentage against 0.500+ teams. Like you said, it ignores that the Celtics also have something to "fight" for. It's kinda similar logic applied in the off-season where everyone thought the Celtics would fall off because every other team got healthy even though it ignored the Celtics' own health issues last season along with all of the roster turnover.
just my take on things.  C's do have something to fight for but keep in mind, they've gotten this far into the season pretty much injury-free whereas a number of other teams have not. 

I would love to look back on this at the end of the season and see that I was way off and the C's outperformed what I expected.  There is no downside to that.  They've already outperformed my preseason expectations and I'm happy about it.  If you want to disagree with what I've said, terrific.  hope you're both right.

Re: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2016, 11:15:34 PM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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Very difficult but not impossible.

Another way to look at it --

Can they go 10-4 and then 9-5 over the second half of the season?

Consider they've gone 9-1 already. 

So yes these things are possible compared to what they've already done. 
The question is can they continue over the next 30 games. 
Longevity, stamina, injuries, etc. play a large role in that.

I'm going to vote yes.  More likely is we end up at 48 wins.  But let's think positive.  Go C's!!

Re: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2016, 02:04:06 AM »

Offline Greyman

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Barring injuries and extreme form reversals I think it will be a close thing. The other many variables (teams being more aware of the Celtics and more prepared, other teams finding form and spiked drinks etc) are difficult to calculate and you hope they even out.

I do feel confident though that; Brad will keep his head and steer the ship well, confidence and belief will continue to grow and we have the talent to compete at a high level (though our playing talent falls short of the top teams). I feel pretty good that we can be around the mark and this young team can give themselves a better playoff experience than last season.

Re: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2016, 10:37:04 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Would the Celtics have a few extra wins and be on pace for 50 wins if they hadn't experimented with David Lee early in the season because they wanted a scorer who could take some pressure off of Thomas?

There's probably a 20-30% chance of 50 wins.  Anyone who says it is close to 0% or 100% is engaging in some Stephen A. Smith level of foolishness.
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Re: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?
« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2016, 12:54:36 PM »

Offline mgent

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Would the Celtics have a few extra wins and be on pace for 50 wins if they hadn't experimented with David Lee early in the season because they wanted a scorer who could take some pressure off of Thomas?

There's probably a 20-30% chance of 50 wins.  Anyone who says it is close to 0% or 100% is engaging in some Stephen A. Smith level of foolishness.

It's extremely close to 100%.

PHI, LAL, MIA sitting Wade/Bosh in final game.  Those should be automatic wins.  Really just need 16-10. 

14 games are vs. .500 or below teams (already 2-0 vs CHA, 2-1 vs NY, 1-0 vs DEN by 8, 1-0 vs MIL by 16, 1-0 vs MIN by 14, 1-0 vs NOH by 18, 1-0 vs PHO by 14).

7 games are vs. playoff teams better than us (already 1-0 vs OKC by 15 in their building, extremely close loss to GS).

5 games are vs. playoff teams worse than us (already 1-0 vs MIA by 10, 1-0 vs HOU by 16, extremely close loss to MEM in their building).

Only games we should have trouble with are:  2 TOR games, OKC, @GSW, @CLE, @ATL, @IND.  And we're probably owed wins vs. a couple of those teams.  Maybe trouble @LAC, but I think we'll match up well vs LAC.  Not scared at all of Utah or Portland either, and I think those are the only 3 teams we haven't played yet.  We owe ORL another beating so not worried about them coming to the Garden either.

Please, tell me who we should be scared of?
« Last Edit: February 09, 2016, 01:10:19 PM by mgent »
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2016, 12:59:59 PM »

Offline mgent

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I give it 87% chance, if healthy.  Just win the games you're supposed to win, and don't lay down in the losses.
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: Will the Celtics get to 50 wins this season?
« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2016, 01:35:13 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Would the Celtics have a few extra wins and be on pace for 50 wins if they hadn't experimented with David Lee early in the season because they wanted a scorer who could take some pressure off of Thomas?

There's probably a 20-30% chance of 50 wins.  Anyone who says it is close to 0% or 100% is engaging in some Stephen A. Smith level of foolishness.

It's extremely close to 100%.

PHI, LAL, MIA sitting Wade/Bosh in final game.  Those should be automatic wins.  Really just need 16-10. 

14 games are vs. .500 or below teams (already 2-0 vs CHA, 2-1 vs NY, 1-0 vs DEN by 8, 1-0 vs MIL by 16, 1-0 vs MIN by 14, 1-0 vs NOH by 18, 1-0 vs PHO by 14).

7 games are vs. playoff teams better than us (already 1-0 vs OKC by 15 in their building, extremely close loss to GS).

5 games are vs. playoff teams worse than us (already 1-0 vs MIA by 10, 1-0 vs HOU by 16, extremely close loss to MEM in their building).

Only games we should have trouble with are:  2 TOR games, OKC, @GSW, @CLE, @ATL, @IND.  And we're probably owed wins vs. a couple of those teams.  Maybe trouble @LAC, but I think we'll match up well vs LAC.  Not scared at all of Utah or Portland either, and I think those are the only 3 teams we haven't played yet.  We owe ORL another beating so not worried about them coming to the Garden either.

Please, tell me who we should be scared of?
the team we should be scared of is - The Celtics.  They're their own worst enemies.

-The Philly and Laker games should be wins but we've lost to the Lakers already so it's not an automatic win not to mention Kobe would love to get that win as his career winds down.  We were expecting to beat Brooklyn every game -- that didn't work out too well.
-No guarantee Miami sits Wade and/or Bosh in that last game.  They could be jockeying for seeding in a very tight Eastern conference.  also, if Miami would sit players, why wouldn't the C's if they're locked into their seed?

I provided my thoughts a few posts sooner than yours and it wasn't a rosy prediction.  really hope I'm wrong.  a lot of things have to go right for the C's to hit 50.