$6-7 million per annum
Sounds right to me . He is not more valuable than Crowder.
This is true in hindsight, but we need to look at context.
Crowder was signed to that contract when he just finished a season averaging 8 points, 3 rebounds and an assist along with 28% 3PT - and this came after never averaging more than 5/3/1 prior to that.
Danny gave him a $7m a year contract, and right after that he elevated his numbers to 14/5/2 with 35% 3Pt and elite caliber defense. No team would have really seen that coming, and if they did we probably never would have snatched him on anything near $7M.
The difference with Sully is that he's talent level and potential are well established. He was pretty highly hyped coming out of college until the red flags came up about his back, and at the age of 23 he already has career Per 36 numbers of 16 / 11.
Yes, we all know he has red flags (conditioning, attitude, etc) but nobody can deny that he has talent, and you have to think there will be some GM out there who is going to get desperate and take a gamble, hoping they can pick up the next Zach Randolph.
You basically countered yourself in the same post. Sully is fat. That is the difference between him and crowder. Besides, what does Sully exactly bring? I'm not in love with his defense. He's not an effective score. He isn't consistent. He is only a great rebounder. Maybe he can grew into more, but I haven't seen much improvement year over year. You have to remember how much of a leap Crowder made pver each year. Unlike Sully, who is the same player he was last year.
Look at Crowder's career stats - from his rookie year to his third year, the improvement in his Per 36 production was minimal.
He looked like an absolute end of bench guy until he came to Boston, and was given some extra minutes and a bigger role. Even then he looked like he was backup SF at best.
Sully's game is highly frustrating and very flawed, but there has never been any question about the fact that he has the talent to be a starter in this league - IF he ever got his act together.
The biggest question has always been whether or not that will ever happen. All signs so far point to the answer being an emphatic "NO", but all it takes is one team to decide it's worth the gamble and throw him a stupid deal (Think: the infamous Detroit Pistons Villenueva signing).
Talent tends to always find you a roster spot - look at guys like Beasley and Greg Oden. Both guys who's careers were early disasters, but who still consistently found their ways on to rosters based on their raw talent/potential alone. It's not hard to imagine a guy like Sully falling into that same category.
On the other hand, Crowder looked a gritty and hard-working player with very limited talent/upside (Think: Reggie Evans), and teams are unlikely to take gambles on players of that nature.
That's why I don't personally see the Crowder deal as being even remotely reflective of what we should expect with Sully. They are two completely opposite players in two completely opposite situations, and it's well known that talented big men are way overvalued in this league (e.g. Tristan Thompson, Omer Asik).
Personally I strongly believe that Sully's conditioning issues and inconsistency limit him from being worthy of any more than a 20-25 MPG role as a backup PF/C, but other teams out there might look at the way Zach Randolph turned his career around, and see that as a prime reason to take a gamble.