10 Lessons to Remember about the Trade Deadline

[colincb]

Thought this was worth a read.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25474767/ten-players-who-could-be-on-the-move-at-the-nba-trade-deadline

10 LESSONS TO REMEMBER ABOUT THE DEADLINE

1. Expiring contracts have almost no value under the new CBA and even less value this summer. It used to be that if you wanted to make a huge free agency splash, you had to clear cap space, so you'd take on those big expiring deals in order to make a run in July. Now, with shorter contracts, there's no reason to pay for that, and with the cap going to $89 million this summer, teams are going to have cap space no matter what in most instances. So just because a guy comes off the books doesn't make him more valuable; in fact it hurts his value because teams want guys on contracts for multiple years signed before the new money comes in.

2. This summer looms over everything. It's not just the money, it's Kevin Durant. Teams are aligning themselves to make a run at KD. Golden State, New York, Houston, the Clippers, Miami, Washington and OKC all want to keep their cap sheets in a position to offer KD the best situation. Not only signing Durant, but bringing in a partner for him to run with. As a result, teams are not going to want to add big salary unless they think there's no way they get KD; and they all can talk themselves into having a chance, because teams are inherently delusional as byproduct of their competitiveness.

3. Some teams don't do in-season trades. The Spurs are always talked about and never make a move. You'll probably hear the Spurs mentioned sometime between now and the deadline. Don't buy it. It's not happening. Likewise, even though the Bulls could really use a trade, they almost never do with current management. These trends matter.

4. Some teams just won't do business with others. Sometimes GMs just don't get along and so teams won't trade with them. It's part of the business. Guys just don't like each other, so they won't do anything that could possibly help them.

5. On the other hand, pre-existing relationships matter. A lot of times you'll see GMs involved in a deal that go way back. The Celtics got Kevin Garnett because McHale and Ainge used to play together. If a GM used to work for another executive, those two are more likely to make a deal. It's why you see the same teams trading with each other consistently.

6. The Celtics will be mentioned in every rumor. The Celtics are a leaky ship, and that's on purpose. They probe and manipulate markets continuously. Almost nothing that is ever reported actually happens. But they'll be everywhere, especially this season.

7. This looks like a "lot of talk, no action" year, where there are a plenty of potential deals, but no one will close the deal. Teams that could have been looking to sell off, like the Wizards or Pelicans, have put together runs to get them back in the playoff race conversation, so they may not want to risk throwing it all off.

8. Pay attention to the words used in reports. Two teams "talked" usually means one side called about a deal, and then it evolved into another one. "Significant talks" means they've actually called back with a potential structure of a deal. If you start hearing more than one name involved in a rumor, that means the deal is pretty far along in the negotiating process. If you want to know if something is serious, see if the owners are said to be "considering it." That means it's at the finish line.

9. The money has to work. You can't trade Blake Griffin for Will Barton straight up. The money rules, which are incredibly complicated, have to work. If a deal sounds lopsided, make sure it can actually work financially before putting any stock into it.

10. Almost everything is smoke, almost nothing is real, and the biggest deals come out of nowhere. There's information and analysis you can take from just the fact that two teams were talking about something, but that in no way means that the deal itself is likely. Enjoy the ride.

[bostonsportsforlife]

Yep, Ainge leaks a lot of info to the media. It's gonna be frustrating hearing about all the rumors that will never happen. Rumors don't excite me in the slightest anymore.

[Lucky17]

Yeah, I don't get how the author can write point #1 (expirings are worthless) and follow it up with point #2 (teams will look to clear cap space to make a run at KD).

Also, pretty sure an expiring contract like Lee's is preferable as ballast in a trade than a guy making $15M a year for the next two or three.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Nice read. TP.