Author Topic: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0  (Read 4052 times)

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2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« on: February 05, 2016, 01:28:29 AM »

Offline max215

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Disclaimer: I don’t love to do specific player comps. Trying to put an absolute ceiling on someone (ex. Isaiah Thomas) or an absolute floor (ex. Anthony Bennett) on a prospect is kind of ridiculous. But they can be fun, so I’ll include some just for the heck of it.

1. Brandon Ingram

I love Brandon Ingram, and I know it’s a bit bold to have him ahead of Ben Simmons, but I think Ingram’s skill set is much better suited for today’s NBA. He’s got a silky stroke, unreal athleticism, and ludicrous measurables. His insane length allows him to finish creatively around the basket and get his shot off over defenders. His defensive potential is amazing too; he’s averaging around 1.5 blocks and steals per game each. However, he needs time to develop--dude looks like the world’s skinniest 8 year-old. The Durant comp is lazy for an athletic, giant, skinny, versatile wing, but it’s an accurate absolute ceiling in my opinion. I really love this kid.

Ceiling: Kevin Durant
Floor: Terrence Ross
My Projection: Giannis with a shot

2. Ben Simmons

Ben Simmons should be the number one overall selection in the draft in June. He’s too safe and obvious a pick not to go first. Simmons is a very good passer, but not the Magic Johnson-esque point forward that some make him out to be. He’s got excellent vision, outstanding court awareness, and tremendous BBIQ. He’s a great prospect and a worthy number one pick, but he is severely overhyped. I hate to break this to anyone who hasn’t realized yet, but Ben Simmons is not the next LeBron James. And this is not an indictment on him as a prospect, I’m just saying that he’s not the undisputed top prospect that many claim he is. Ultimately, his ability to facilitate, work out of the post, rebound, get to the line, and run in transition--I have never seen a big as blazingly fast as Simmons, routinely the fastest guy on the court--make him a really awesome prospect. His lack of a jumper at this stage is worrisome--it’s beyond broken and he has zero confidence in it whatsoever--but he does everything else well enough to warrant being the number one pick.

Ceiling: Blake Griffin
Floor: taller Tyreke Evans/Evan Turner
My Projection: Blake Griffin lite   

3. Jaylen Brown

If only he could shoot. Unfortunately, shooting is a rather important part of basketball. That’s essentially the whole story with Jaylen Brown. He’s a FREAK athlete. A really, really special athlete. But, at this point, he’s nothing more than a pretty good slasher. It’s going to come down to situation for Brown. If he lands in a situation like Kawhi did, and develops into a great shooter, his ceiling is astronomically high. I’d be willing to take a shot on Brown at 3, but we should be prepared for a tough few years, trying desperately to turn him into a passable shooter.

Ceiling: Russell Westbrook in a wing’s body
Floor: Take your pick of the countless freak athletes that have flamed out
My Projection: DeMar Derozan lite

4. Dragan Bender

What is Dragan Bender? As far as I can tell, he’s an ultra raw, very high upside player with an unclear future. I’m honestly not even sure if he’s a wing or a big in the NBA. His mobility at 7’1” is crazy, but he is still every bit of 7’1”. And man, I have to reiterate, he is so raw he makes sashimi look burnt to a crisp. Additionally, you have to take his contract situation into account, which is also a bit of a mystery. As far as I can tell, he’s not getting out of his contract with Maccabi Tel Aviv for around 2-3 years. This is a huge negative for us, given that we are looking for a guy to build around right now. The range of outcomes for him is so vast. I could see him flaming out in a blaze of glory, taking the GM who gambled on him with him, or he could be a transcendent, position-redefining superstar. If I’m a GM with a top five pick, Dragan Bender is the most terrifying person on Earth.

Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns (what I see as the future of the NBA big- mobile, versatile, complete offensive game)
Floor: Out of the league within a few years
My Projection: No clue

5. Ivan Rabb

I like Rabb. He’s solid, if not a little boring. He’s a strong rebounder and defender and usually pretty active. I envision him developing into a very versatile offensive player, possibly extending his range out to three eventually. I don’t think his ceiling is as high as the guys’ above him, but I’d be pretty happy if we came away with a guy like Rabb. He’s just super solid.

Ceiling: Chris Bosh lite
Floor: Bobby Portis
My Projection: Chris Bosh very, very  lite

6. Kris Dunn

Dunn has elite size, good intangibles, and plays both sides of the court. He’s essentially the prototypical modern point guard at a lean, yet strong 200 pounds in a 6’4” frame. He has a knack for getting in passing lanes and making big plays. He’s a good, but sometimes turnover-prone passer. He’s a good athlete, but is sometimes reckless. He’s not perfect, but he’s pretty [dang] good.

Ceiling: John Wall
Floor: Cory Joseph
My Projection: Somewhere between Joseph and Mike Conley

7. Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield is having an historically great shooting season. He has a smooth stroke and unlimited range, but so did Jimmer Fredette. I think Hield’s work ethic and defense set him apart from Fredette though. I like Hield’s game a lot, but he’ll be 23 by the All-Star break of his rookie year. His age is a legitimate concern.

Ceiling: CJ McCollum with defense
Floor: Jimmer Fredette
My Projection: Some sort of cross between JJ Redick and McCollum

8. Henry Ellenson

He can rebound and score, but he’s a defensive sieve. If he extends out to three, he’ll be very dangerous.

Ceiling: Kevin Love in Cleveland
Floor: slightly worse Jared Sullinger
My Projection: slightly less maddening Jared Sullinger

9. Jakob Poeltl

He’s the ultimate safe pick. He’s got a very limited ceiling, but a very defined NBA role. His offensive game is largely nonexistent, but the rim protection is legit.

Ceiling: Andrew Bogut
Floor: Bismack Biyombo
My Projection: Omer Asik with hands

10. Furkan Korkmaz

Korkmaz has a nice, natural stroke and very good athleticism. He’s really skinny and needs to develop a lot before he’ll be able to contribute, but I like his upside as a very good, exciting SG/SF.

Ceiling: Khris Middleton
Floor: James Young
My Projection: Omri Casspi

11. Timothe Luwawu

The first word that comes to mind when I watch Luwawu if “fun.” He plays with energy and is always liable to do something cool. He’s a strong athlete, and his shot, while slightly low and slow, is pretty smooth. He’s going to make some team and its fans very happy.

My Projection: Trevor Ariza

12. Jamal Murray

Murray can’t defend or facilitate, and he’s not a tremendous athlete by any stretch of the imagination. He’s likely playing out of position at PG at Kentucky too. However, he can score. He always finds a way to score, and as Celtics fans know better than anyone else, anyone who can get buckets has value.

My Projection: Lou Williams

13. Diamond Stone

He can score and he can rebound. And he does both pretty well. He’s definitely of a dying breed of back to the basket bigs, but the ability to do two things well sets him apart from many of the lackluster prospects behind Stone.

My Projection: A poor man’s Greg Monroe

14. Skal Labissiere

Skal, in theory, has potential to be a really good offensive player. I think that’s pretty unlikely to happen, but someone should take a shot on him in the late lottery and try to harness some of the potential people thought he had just a few months ago.

My Projection: Lottery ticket




I'm eager to hear your thoughts, suggestions, and criticisms!
« Last Edit: February 05, 2016, 03:39:35 PM by max215 »
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Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2016, 01:39:08 AM »

Offline Kane3387

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Props. That post took work. Good stuff.


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Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2016, 01:50:12 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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I don't think the Ben Simmons/Blake Griffin comparison is ideal. Simmons full court full speed running the floor skills are ridiculous, and while Blake actually has good skills in that department they are nowhere near Simmons. Simmons doesn't have any post game (yet, admittedly).

They are both big and athletic, that's about it. I would have gone with Sixers era Charles Barkley, or unfortuntately, LeBron.
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2016, 01:58:36 AM »

Offline csfansince60s

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TP to the OP for all that time putting that together.

Lot of good stuff, and a lot I agree with.

Two players that really stand out to me as mis-ranked.

Jaylen Brown is one. I've watched him more than a few times this year, especially on the Pac-12 Network, most recently vs Colorado. I've really tried to like him. He forces drives into the teeth of the defense and forces shots....poor judgment...no feel.

He's an athlete, no doubt, but severely overrated in my opinion. To me he is a poor mans Justise Winslow. Very similar physical metrics, sucky FT shooters. Winslow had a much better 3pt%.

Dunn and Bender should be ahead of him.

Also, Skal should be much higher than 14. Despite his inexperience, he has better skills than Brown. His shooting is decent and his footwork is improving a lot both offensively and defensively.

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2016, 04:49:21 AM »

Offline Smartacus

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Tp, well done. Think your big board is relatively standard but strategic in what you value. Is this strictly from a Boston perspective or the draft as a whole?

First, not sure what Jamal Murray did to you but whatever it must have been serious to drop a consensus top 6 pick under the two unproven euro league standouts. Can't see it. He's far a guaranteed stud but personally think he's more James Harden than Lou Williams and the NBA game will bring out his skill.

Think your a bit harsh on Ellenson he's no Ibaka but his wingspan and effort should be able give him a fairly stout presance on defense. Maybe like an Aldridge, not a stopper but won't kill  you either and will tire out his matchup on offense.

Finally Brown, I've got him below Dunn myself. From what I've heard he has the athleticism of Westbrook and a temperment more like Hibbert or Willey Caulie Stein.  Mike Schmitz of Draft express recently said on realgm radio that interviews will be important for his draft stock. He said that while Brown's a bright kid he has a lot of interest outside of basketball and might have to prove how devoted he is to being a franchise player and not just another athlete.

Just my takes, again nice work.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2016, 11:48:16 AM by Smartacus »

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2016, 05:31:47 AM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Jakob, No Offense? That's what he does first and foremost, he scores. He didn't miss very much either.

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2016, 05:54:49 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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My big board 10

1. Simmons=Karl Malone/Lamar Odom. He is physical and can pass like Malone but his game is even more at the point creating like Odom.

2. Brandon Ingram=Paul George/Gordon Hayward. He has incredible upside and is still growing like PG was coming out. Yet his game is more like Gordan Hayward was in college. He plays well as a go to or off the ball. Both Inside or out.

3. Lab=Chris Bosh/Channing Frye. Built like Bosh and is more of a shooter type than down low big like Frye. He hasn't battle well through this year but his upside is way above others in the draft imo.

4. Dunn= Damian Lillard. Pretty much dead on. Lillard is faster but Dunn is bigger. Likely equals out.

5. Hield=Ray Allen/CJ. Ray of course tore it up in college and pros so its a huge projection. Still Hield is on a tear right now.

6. Bender=Noah/Henson. I just don't see the scoring touch. Great defense and game feel though.

7. Jaylen Brown=Wiggins/MKG. He likes contact and handle the ball well enough to get to the line / rim in college at least. Lacks shooting touch. Above average athleticism. Could develop a great deal more like the guys he is similar to.

8. Malik Beasley=Jimmy Butler/Winslow. Pounding the table for this guy. Still an under the radar prospect.

9. Poeltl=Bogut lock

10. Caris Levert=Kidd/Livingston/MCW= He has improved his game over the years so he doesn't look to be a MCW flop. Yet he isn't at Kidd level in passing. He has very good potential regardless.

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2016, 12:31:44 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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I am planning on waiting till conference tournament time to put together my first Mock but shooting from the hip my lottery would be the following. Based on BPA not Cs needs.

1. Simmons, every year people like to focus on the warts of the elite prospects. Bottom line he is an elite athlete with a transcendent skill set.

2. Ingram, has the physical profile and skill set to be an elite scoring wing in the NBA.

3. Bender, at 7'1 and with a game typical of a 6'7 wing player he is a great prospect for todays spread out game.

4. Poeltl, big men are out of style right now but Poeltl is a legit starting center who has good hands, can score around the basket, defend the pick and role, and protect the rim.

5. Ellenson, he might not be a sexy pick but he has great size at the 4 and very good perimeter skills. As he develops a better outiside shot he could really be a nice starting PF with the ability to play the Center position as well.

6. Dunn, I expect a team in need of a PG (76ers) to make a move to get this kid in the draft. An older prospect who I worry has already tapped out his potential. Even if he has he should be a starting PG in the league.

7. Brown, I really want Brown to be an elite wing player but in the games ive seen he just isnt that player. He is an elite athlete who could some day be special if he develops an outside shot.

8. Hield, he may not have an elite ceiling but Heild will contribute from day 1 in the NBA. Where he may never be a star in the league I do not think its a stretch to think he could someday be a 20ppg shooting guard at the level of a healthy Eric Gordon.

9. Rabb, he is a skilled big who seems to have a solid motor and bball IQ. I worry that he may never develop then strength to play in the paint in the NBA. The team that drafts him has to hope that at his age he can gain 25-30 lbs. If that happens he is a very good long term prospect.

10. Labisserie, any team that drafts him in the lottery is taking a huge risk but their is also a chance that he could be special. His game is better suited for the NBA and this is the biggest reason I am keeping him at 10 and not lower.

11.Murray, he is a unique prospect in that he is very young and has a real knack for scoring without being an over whelming athlete or having great size. He may will be able to play the 1 and the 2 in the NBA but I wonder how we will handle elite ball pressure.

12. Stone, the NBA has changed and low post bigs are not the asset they once where. If this was 10-12 years ago Stone would be a lock top 5 pick. He is great in the paint and on the right team he could ne a huge asset (much like kanter in OKC)

13. Hayes
, higher potential players are available but I think Haye's game will transition well to the NBA and he is a great fit as a modern small ball 4. His ability to draw fouls while take smaller men to the block and bigger men to the perimeter will work very well in the NBA.

13. Valentine, like Hayes there are high ceiling guys available but Valentine is close to a finished product who excels at most facets of the game. He has decent size and length on the wing, can shoot the 3, is a great rebounder, solid defender and above average passer. He looks to me like a player who a good team can plug in from day one as their 1st wing off the bench and never look back.   
Mavs
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Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2016, 12:42:00 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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1. Ingram

2. Simmons


That's all. Thanks.

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2016, 01:49:02 PM »

Offline celticmania

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I don't think Ingram is an outstanding athlete by any means compared to other NBA threes.  He's average if anything actually quite slow. Doesn't really blow by people and has to use unorthodox finishes at the hoop to score which is actually a very nice skill.  He jumps high with momentum but isn't particularly explosive. His measurements are elite but i don't see special athleticism.

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2016, 02:09:18 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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For the OP and those that have commented on players on here. How far back is your analysis of the players and how many games have you seen? I think for some of these players its important to know where they have been and where they are now. For instance, based upon his year at Florida, there was no reason to take Beal third that year but he was picked there based upon what people have seen over the course of a few years and it has worked out for the Wiz when he is actually healthy.

For instance Skal has been a huge disappointment based on what most have seen at UK but, he also plays a different game than what he is asked to do at UK. Look at his Nike Hoop Summit game vs most of his UK games. Not used in the same way that's why he is still high on some boards.

Brown is another player. If you go back and watch him in summer leagues and in HS he had the ball in his hands all the time. He is so big and fast that he never needed a jump shot. When he got banged up and faced length he learned he needed a jumper. Fast forward to this year. At the start of the year it was like HS except there was alot less space on the court. He would force drives had no real feel on his jumper although mechanically fine. Since his points dont come as easy as say an Ingram people downgraded him. But if you have watched him over the course of the season you will see he doesnt force as many drives but his jumper is improved yet still not something he can rely on.

I think those that talk about him and Winslow in the same way havent watched him closely. Winslow has a higher basketball IQ much better defender and is probably a tweener. Brown is a much better athlete, Much better offensive skill.

Just my thoughts.

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2016, 02:09:29 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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Nice work all, good to see this info.  I like the Ingram/Durant comp, although it's unlikely Ingram is ever quite that good.  Comp for Hield for me is JJ Reddick.  I think he'll be a solid scorer.  Simmons is unique I think, but I see Odom more than Griffin.  Question is will he develop the jump shot?  I think so.


Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #12 on: February 05, 2016, 02:40:40 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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For the OP and those that have commented on players on here. How far back is your analysis of the players and how many games have you seen? I think for some of these players its important to know where they have been and where they are now.

I go back mostly to HS highlights, Mcs game, Nike, AU, under 18, state/champ games which is about only 6 total games in all pre college. In college I watch 10-15 games of my favorite players then other games are most rated team games or whatever is being covered. I know enough to bang the table for guys few people like.

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2016, 02:55:25 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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I wasnt saying this as a negative or at anyone in particular. I think it helps to know the basis upon which the evaluation was made. For instance if someone says player x cant do this, well how many times has that person seen player x and over the course of what time. Like if a guy is say a below average shooter now but was a non shooter before thats progress which you want to see but if you just saw the guy as a below average shooter that lowers his value.




For the OP and those that have commented on players on here. How far back is your analysis of the players and how many games have you seen? I think for some of these players its important to know where they have been and where they are now.

I go back mostly to HS highlights, Mcs game, Nike, AU, under 18, state/champ games which is about only 6 total games in all pre college. In college I watch 10-15 games of my favorite players then other games are most rated team games or whatever is being covered. I know enough to bang the table for guys few people like.

Re: 2016 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0
« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2016, 03:24:20 PM »

Offline max215

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TP to the OP for all that time putting that together.

Lot of good stuff, and a lot I agree with.

Two players that really stand out to me as mis-ranked.

Jaylen Brown is one. I've watched him more than a few times this year, especially on the Pac-12 Network, most recently vs Colorado. I've really tried to like him. He forces drives into the teeth of the defense and forces shots....poor judgment...no feel.

He's an athlete, no doubt, but severely overrated in my opinion. To me he is a poor mans Justise Winslow. Very similar physical metrics, sucky FT shooters. Winslow had a much better 3pt%.

Dunn and Bender should be ahead of him.

Also, Skal should be much higher than 14. Despite his inexperience, he has better skills than Brown. His shooting is decent and his footwork is improving a lot both offensively and defensively.

I think I probably agree with you on Brown as a poor man's Winslow, which speaks to the quality of this draft.
Isaiah, you were lightning in a bottle.

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