Author Topic: The Maximum Return: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips (OLD)  (Read 11273 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2016, 02:09:10 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

  • NCE
  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1822
  • Tommy Points: 219
To show that this particular hypo isn't unique, here's a version using Philly instead of Atlanta.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=jqwdkjk

Sixers give: Noel
Sixers get: BRK '18 1st, DAL '16 1st, PHI '16 2nd, Rozier, Hunter, Mickey

Jazz give: Hayward
Jazz get: MEM '17+ 1st, BOS '18 1st, BOS '20 1st, MIN '16 2nd, Turner, Young, Jerebko

Clippers give: Griffin
Clippers get: BRK '16 1st, BOS '16 1st, Sullinger, Zeller, Lee

Celtics give: BRK '16 1st, BRK '18 1st, DAL '16 1st, BOS '16 1st, BOS '18 1st, BOS '20 1st, MEM '17+ 1st, PHI '16 2nd, MIN '16 2nd,  Sullinger, Turner, Zeller, Jerebko, Lee, Hunter, Rozier, Mickey, Young
Celtics get: Griffin, Hayward, Noel

Isaiah/Smart
Hayward/Bradley
Crowder
Griffin/Amir
Noel/Olynyk

Here, the Celtics even get to hold onto Amir, haha. Just like the original one where LA would probably want to involve a third team to convert pick value into player value, here Utah would want the same re: Hayward since they aren't getting Teague now.

So, is each team getting enough value?
I'm now worried Utah isn't.

This hypo four-way better captures the amazing asset situation, I think, since it truly uses all of the Celtics' best tradeable assets, all while sacrificing almost zero usefulness from the current roster. There'd almost be too much usefulness, lol. Also the big difference is that there is now much less long-term risk. None of the nine players on the C's expire. The risk of Horford leaving or declining is instead replaced by Noel's upside and hometown pull.

Hayward gets to play for Stevens, Noel gets to play in Boston, Doc gets to deal his problematic star to a friendly franchise. Celtics improve on their already elite defense, maintain their elite depth and actually improve the quality of it, turn from subpar to above average on the glass, and have one of the league's better offenses led by three 20+ ppg scorers.

It's no longer an "HGH" return, but it's even more of the equivalent of HGH for the roster. Whoosh, from the middle class to title contention, instant. Moreover, the average age of the team would stay about the same! I think that lineup and bench could beat the Warriors, Spurs, and Cavs.

And we'd still have a '17 1st with the right to swap with Brooklyn, i.e., a likely top 5-10 pick a year and a half from now. And, amazingly, Ainge would then still have about 9 million in cap space this summer, which could become 21 million if he chooses to move Amir for picks or cut him, so...enough to sign a near-max free agent. The full max (i.e., Durant) if he also then moved one of Smart/Bradley for picks. A starting lineup of Isaiah, Hayward, Durant, Griffin, and Noel would be possible, with Smart-or-Bradley, Crowder, and Olynyk off the bench...

Isaiah/Smart-or-Bradley
Hayward
Durant/Crowder
Griffin
Noel/Olynyk

...if you keep that core of eight players together, plus a top 5-10 pick in 2017, you might make and win the Finals every year the rest of the decade. That might be the The Maximum that Ainge could convert this team's total assets into, over the space of the next six months, using only targets plausibly available right now.

The possibilities are unreal, though.

[Ainge-gasm]
« Last Edit: January 31, 2016, 03:58:34 PM by Dino Pitino »
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2016, 03:35:10 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

  • NCE
  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1822
  • Tommy Points: 219
Man, getting this glimpse of how the assets could hypothetically be 100% maximized without disturbing the current core...this might wind up spoiling my enthusiasm for whatever less-maximized trade Ainge does pull off at the deadline. This is a dangerous game, lol, like staring at the sun or overdosing on ecstasy.
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2016, 04:06:36 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

  • NCE
  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1822
  • Tommy Points: 219
Would it be fair to say that the maximum 2016-17 potential player value of all the Celtics' tradeable picks, tradeable contracts, and createable cap space combined can be roughly expressed as the sum of (Durant + Griffin + Hayward + Noel)...on top of an existing base of (Isaiah + Smart + Crowder + Olynyk)?
« Last Edit: January 31, 2016, 04:11:50 PM by Dino Pitino »
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2016, 04:11:59 PM »

Offline pearljammer10

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13129
  • Tommy Points: 885
I had started another thread with this as the main idea:


Trade one: Three team between Jazz, C's and Hawks

Atlanta trades: Horford and Teague
Atlanta receives: Amir, Sully, Bradley, Boston 1st this year.

Jazz Trade: Hayward
Jazz Receive: Teague, Turner, Young, Zeller, Memphis 2018 and 2016 Minny Second rounder.

Celtics Trade: Bradley, Sully, Amir, Turner, Young, Zeller, Memphis 1st, Boston 1st, minny Second rounder
Celtics Receive Horford and Hayward

Trade 2:

Celtics trade Lee, Rozier, Dallas first
Celtics Receive Galinari

IT/Smart
Hayward/Hunter
Crowder/Jerebko
Gallo/KO
Horford/Mickey

Summer (pipe dream idea) resign horford and gallo. throw a max deal at Durant. Still have our brooklyn pick.

IT/Smart
Hayward/Hunter
Durant/Crowder
Gallo/KO/Jerebko
Horford/Mickey

Top 7 pick this year.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #19 on: January 31, 2016, 05:04:45 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

  • NCE
  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1822
  • Tommy Points: 219
I had started another thread with this as the main idea:


Trade one: Three team between Jazz, C's and Hawks

Atlanta trades: Horford and Teague
Atlanta receives: Amir, Sully, Bradley, Boston 1st this year.

Jazz Trade: Hayward
Jazz Receive: Teague, Turner, Young, Zeller, Memphis 2018 and 2016 Minny Second rounder.

Celtics Trade: Bradley, Sully, Amir, Turner, Young, Zeller, Memphis 1st, Boston 1st, minny Second rounder
Celtics Receive Horford and Hayward

Trade 2:

Celtics trade Lee, Rozier, Dallas first
Celtics Receive Galinari

IT/Smart
Hayward/Hunter
Crowder/Jerebko
Gallo/KO
Horford/Mickey

Summer (pipe dream idea) resign horford and gallo. throw a max deal at Durant. Still have our brooklyn pick.

IT/Smart
Hayward/Hunter
Durant/Crowder
Gallo/KO/Jerebko
Horford/Mickey

Top 7 pick this year.

My problem with that scenario is that Gallinari would be a weak rebounder at PF and a liability on D. Wouldn't you rather cough up this year's Nets 1st in a package to get a player like Griffin instead? Or are you holding out for the chance at Simmons? Personally, I'd rather have the 100%-assured superstar in the hand than a 15% chance at the project in the bush.
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #20 on: January 31, 2016, 08:16:42 PM »

Offline MichaelJ

  • Oshae Brissett
  • Posts: 67
  • Tommy Points: 3
I might be inclined to find a way to just add Hayward and Griffin without complicating things too much and still retain some of the ammo Danny has built up.  Adding two players of high caliber (especially one who has worked well with Stevens before and another who is a franchise level talent) to the squad will make the Celts contenders again.  See how those two fit the foundation, reevaluate, and then add where needed.

Also, I know Danny likes to wheel and deal.  If he's flipping Teague for Hayward, flip Horford in the Griffin deal.  I could see LA wanting an experienced player in return even with his free agency out there...I think he'd be open to re-signing in LAC.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #21 on: January 31, 2016, 08:44:29 PM »

Offline MichaelJ

  • Oshae Brissett
  • Posts: 67
  • Tommy Points: 3
Would it be fair to say that the maximum 2016-17 potential player value of all the Celtics' tradeable picks, tradeable contracts, and createable cap space combined can be roughly expressed as the sum of (Durant + Griffin + Hayward + Noel)...on top of an existing base of (Isaiah + Smart + Crowder + Olynyk)?

If Ainge can add Griffin and Hayward without disturbing the core and have enough space for Durant he should get a lifetime achievement award.  This team with Griffin and Hayward on it would look very attractive as a destination for Durant if he wants a ring.  With that group as a big 3 and the supporting players already here the C's would be in position to run the table for a few years and the patience of rebuilding will be worth it.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #22 on: January 31, 2016, 09:28:58 PM »

Offline action781

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5217
  • Tommy Points: 609
I do hope that Danny can turn these picks into players before the trade deadline.  Future picks are far more valuable in trades before they are used.

I like the general idea here.  If the picks are spread out properly and the right teams are targetted, we have the assets to build a really good team -- a contender even.

Every trade proposed I did think to myself "ehhhh, maybe" when trying to look at it from the other team's perspective.  I don't see why Atlanta and LAC (teams with a win-now mentality) are willing to just throw it all in and blow it up.  Also, not sure why Utah would trade their best player (Hayward) for a PG when they've recently invested 2 lottery picks in PGs Trey Burke and Dante Exum before putting in an honest attempt to develop them.
2020 CelticsStrong All-2000s Draft -- Utah Jazz
 
Finals Starters:  Jason Kidd - Reggie Miller - PJ Tucker - Al Horford - Shaq
Bench:  Rajon Rondo - Trae Young - Marcus Smart - Jaylen Brown -  Peja Stojakovic - Jamal Mashburn - Carlos Boozer - Tristan Thompson - Mehmet Okur

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #23 on: February 01, 2016, 10:33:42 AM »

Offline seancally

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1097
  • Tommy Points: 119
From a high level, I love it. I think it's also worth pointing out - those '17 and '18 Nets picks could easily end up being more valuable than the '16. We salivate over the '16 pick because we know it can go No. 1 and net Ben Simmons. But it's highly possible the Nets end up even worse in the next two years, even with the cap going up. Who wants to go there as that team is currently constructed? So the ability to hang onto the '17 swap, in this deal, is a really nice option. Consider the possibility of keeping a squad like this intact going into the '17 draft and then augmenting it with whatever stud that pick becomes? It's a nice luxury.
"The game honors toughness." - President Stevens

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #24 on: February 01, 2016, 12:01:37 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

  • NCE
  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1822
  • Tommy Points: 219
From a high level, I love it. I think it's also worth pointing out - those '17 and '18 Nets picks could easily end up being more valuable than the '16. We salivate over the '16 pick because we know it can go No. 1 and net Ben Simmons. But it's highly possible the Nets end up even worse in the next two years, even with the cap going up. Who wants to go there as that team is currently constructed? So the ability to hang onto the '17 swap, in this deal, is a really nice option. Consider the possibility of keeping a squad like this intact going into the '17 draft and then augmenting it with whatever stud that pick becomes? It's a nice luxury.

Yep. Consider the second scenario, The Maximum, where the Celtics wind up with Isaiah-Hayward-Durant-Griffin-Noel-Crowder-Smart-Olynyk for the 2016-17 season, and then Brooklyn still sucks or sucks even more, and in the summer of 2017 we add Josh Jackson as a top 3 overall pick to that.  :o
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #25 on: February 01, 2016, 11:58:22 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

  • NCE
  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1822
  • Tommy Points: 219
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/hawks--al-horford-expanding-his-game-as-free-agency-looms-232658396.html

Quote
Atlanta can offer Horford a maximum five-year, $146 million contract, which Horford is seeking, a source told Yahoo Sports.

Oh hell no.

I now want no part of Horford, because either he's going to be just a three-month rental, or he's going to wind up being an albatross. Don't care how much the cap is inflated, he is not worth tying up that much of it into his mid-late 30's. There are soooo many other big men vaguely-available this deadline, apparently, that there's no need to overcommit to Horford.

Changing the thread title to reflect my turn against Horford, lol.
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #26 on: February 02, 2016, 12:31:14 AM »

Offline Denis998

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3308
  • Tommy Points: 388
  • Rutgers '17
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/hawks--al-horford-expanding-his-game-as-free-agency-looms-232658396.html

Quote
Atlanta can offer Horford a maximum five-year, $146 million contract, which Horford is seeking, a source told Yahoo Sports.

Oh hell no.

I now want no part of Horford, because either he's going to be just a three-month rental, or he's going to wind up being an albatross. Don't care how much the cap is inflated, he is not worth tying up that much of it into his mid-late 30's. There are soooo many other big men vaguely-available this deadline, apparently, that there's no need to overcommit to Horford.

Changing the thread title to reflect my turn against Horford, lol.
yeah that is way too much. would be one thing if he was 24 or 25. I'd rather have kelly on a rookie scale playing the 5.

Re: The HGH Option: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #27 on: February 02, 2016, 12:54:40 AM »

Offline nostar

  • Jayson Tatum
  • Posts: 754
  • Tommy Points: 74

Quote
Atlanta can offer Horford a maximum five-year, $146 million contract, which Horford is seeking, a source told Yahoo Sports.

Oh hell no.

I now want no part of Horford, because either he's going to be just a three-month rental, or he's going to wind up being an albatross. Don't care how much the cap is inflated, he is not worth tying up that much of it into his mid-late 30's. There are soooo many other big men vaguely-available this deadline, apparently, that there's no need to overcommit to Horford.

I would say that as the cap baloons we are going to have to re-adjust what we think of as too much money. I think it's worth mentioning that lots of guys are going to get overpaid under this new TV deal cap and that we are going to have to realize that 30M is the new 20M.

Another noteworthy thing that gets dropped from the conversation on this blog is that we aren't a FA destination. Trading for players and drafting is sort of how we get good players. To get Horford I would venture a guess we'll have to trade for him AND overpay him. That is how small market teams work. Fortunately everyone will be overpaying NBA players for a while so it makes the playing field less slanted.

I think Al Horford is probably one of the safer bets to stay relevant over the next 5 years or so. He has a nice old man game: effective post moves, good mid-range game and high BBIQ (whatever that means!). He also fits the mold of the new age big. He has range, is a tough defender and can play the 5 against PFs and Cs. Horford has proven he can play pace and space and work within an effective offense which is something that we are (sort of) doing. I'm not saying I want to throw $30M/yr at Horford. I'm saying someone will and there are definitely worse bets...but maybe not too many better ones.

Additionally, we're going to have to hit the salary floor next year which might actually not come easily. If they keep the same percentage they have now, the floor will be set at 90% of the cap (estimated at 89M) which shakes out to around 80M. With Lee and Amir either gone or non-guarantee'd we're looking at ~50M before we sign anyone to extensions or renounce players. I know a lot of teams will have $ but we will have a lot of money, a lot of picks and will likely have made the playoffs the year before. Probably can't say that about POR and definitely not about LAL or PHI.

Horford fits our system. He is everything we want Sully to be. I know we need a go-to scorer who isn't 5'2" (/Simmons) but guys that fit your system and are playing better thanMarc Gasol don't grow on trees. I want Horford AND the wing scorer.

[link to any trade for Melo/Derozan/Heyward/Gallinari thread]

Re: The Maximum Return: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #28 on: February 02, 2016, 01:07:20 AM »

Offline trickybilly

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5593
  • Tommy Points: 617
http://thesportsquotient.com/nba/2015/12/19/boston-is-quietly-turning-into-a-possible-destination-for-kevin

Just putting this thing on this thing. Don't need to do anything with it; just putting it here.
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: The Maximum Return: A rough look at how Ainge could cash in all the chips
« Reply #29 on: February 02, 2016, 01:12:49 AM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4098
  • Tommy Points: 419
http://thesportsquotient.com/nba/2015/12/19/boston-is-quietly-turning-into-a-possible-destination-for-kevin

Just putting this thing on this thing. Don't need to do anything with it; just putting it here.

I was skeptical at first, but then I saw the author is a Heat fan!  Now I believe we're getting him and Ben Simmons!  Whooo