Poll

If Utah offers Hayward for the Nets pick do you do it.

No. I'm holding out hope for a top 2 pick.
30 (73.2%)
Yes. Take the sure thing.
6 (14.6%)
I'd get nervous and throw up.
5 (12.2%)

Total Members Voted: 41

Author Topic: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward  (Read 3696 times)

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Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #30 on: January 30, 2016, 10:12:31 PM »

Offline CelticSince83

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It is far more likely that Hayward ends up better than what that pick ends up being.  But we aren't going anywhere without a superstar and that pick gives us a shot at one... even if we are talking like a 5% chance the pick ends up a better player than Hayward.
if Hayward ended up being the 5th pick (at worst) in a redraft of any draft class, that would be an absolutely horrendous draft.  I have little doubt that pick will be no worse than #5 and that whomever gets selected at that spot will have a better career (and if not that specific player, at least one player taken after that pick -- to allow for the varying draft skills of GMs)

Yeah, like I said... Hayward seems pretty underrated around here.  I disagree with your statement.   If the 5th pick in a re-draft ends up averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals on 44%/38%/82% shooting... the 4 guys above him must be pretty [dang] good.  We took Marcus SMart 6th... if he puts up those kind of numbers eventually, I'll be absolutely thrilled.

Also, re-drafts take into account every rookie who entered that year.   There's always potential to mis-fire with a top 5 pick.

Ehhhhh, he's probably not going top 5 in any re-draft other than 2013, which was horrible.  But yes, he is probably better than the average #5 pick.  Speaking of former #5 overall picks, can someone explain to me what has gotten into Uncle Jeff Green these past few games?!?!

Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #31 on: January 30, 2016, 10:13:54 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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It is far more likely that Hayward ends up better than what that pick ends up being.  But we aren't going anywhere without a superstar and that pick gives us a shot at one... even if we are talking like a 5% chance the pick ends up a better player than Hayward.

Wait a minute, since you're giving such little percentage of a top pick ending up better than Hayward, then why all the hype on the Sixers draft picks? You can't have it both ways, man. You need to stay consistent with your beliefs regardless on who the team is.


Philly has the worst record.  Brooklyn has the 3rd worst record.  People are underrating Hayward a bit.  There's very likely a couple players in this draft who likely will end up better than Hayward. But with half a season left we don't know whether the pick will land one of them and whether that player will live up to his potential. 

Even if we agreed that Brooklyn would stay in the bottom 3 and even if we agreed that both Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram would be significantly better than Hayward... If the season ends today there's a 68.7% chance we don't end up with a top 2 pick.   With half a season left and multiple teams tanking, who knows what will happen.

It's impossible to come up with real odds here, but the odds that the pick ends up being better than Hayward are staggeringly low.  Hayward is an all-star caliber player.  We are rolling the dice against the odds that we land a superstar instead.  I get it, but I also get why Zach Lowe suggested we move the pick for Hayward. 

Also Ed, once again you blatantly miss my point on philly.  If the Brooklyn pick could net us Hayward than obviously the philly pick could as well.  Factor that into their options heading forward when considering their bounty of assets.  Maybe you will finally get it.

You gave us a 5% chance of not landing a player as good as Hayward. Then state we have a 31.3% of getting a top 2 pick. Your math just doesn't add up.

Hate to break it to you, but Brooklyn sucked when the season began, currently sucks, and will continue to suck.
#1 - Assume that the wide-spread belief that Ingram and Simmons will be better than Hayward is true and that after them there's a significant drop off.

#2 - Assume Brooklyn stays in the bottom 3.

If the season ends today, based on those two assumptions, Boston has a 31.3% chance of ending up with a better player than Hayward.

Now let's step out of that bubble and recognize the following.

#1 - It's not a guarantee Brooklyn stays in the bottom 3.   The Suns and Wolves are on their heels.  If, for instance, they drop to 5th, we're looking at an 18.5% chance of landing Simmons or Ingram.   Know for a fact that we have half a season to play and as the season winds down, Brooklyn will not be tanking... Suns, Wolves and several other teams will.   Factor that in.

#2 - It's not a guarantee that either Ingram or Simmons will end up better than Hayward.  Factor that in.

If you've read what I said and your level of reading comprehension leads you to believe that Boston currently has a 31.3% chance of ending up with a better player than Hayward, I dunno what to say.  Have someone other than me explain it to you.  I feel like every time I post, you just cross your eyes and bang a tin pot on your head until my words say what you think they say.

Like I said, it's impossible to really come up with a true % of how likely it is that the pick ends up better than Hayward.  Ask some Utah fans and they'd undoubtedly tell you there's a 0% chance any pick in this draft ends up better than Hayward.  He's averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals on 44%/38%/82% shooting and he's 25 years old.  He's already a borderline all-star and he seems to be improving.   If you listen to Simmons most recent "Friday Rollin" podcast with Joe House, they suggested that Hayward can be even better than he currently appears based on the idea that he's literally never played with a quality point guard. 

But what I can say pretty confidently right now is that the odds that the Brooklyn pick ends up a better player than Gordon Hayward is significantly low right now. 

All that said, I don't think I'd move that pick for Gordon Hayward.  The allure of a true superstar is too powerful.   Even if the SUns and Wolves drop below the Nets leaving us with an 8.8% chance of landing Ben Simmons... it's fun to dream about... and who knows, maybe we can even get a bigger fish than Hayward by using that pick.  Could we package it for Blake Griffin at the deadline?  Kevin Love?  The goal is to get a superstar... and Hayward, as good as he is, isn't a superstar.  I totally get the "superstar or bust" mentality and that's why I'd probably turn down the offer despite the fact I know how low the odds are.   Also, it's still early... perhaps a couple other guys (like Dragon Bender or something) become major factors.  If you're rolling the dice on the "next LeBron" and your consolation prize is "the next Olynyk", maybe it's worth passing on a guy like Hayward.   Nobody is winning a title without a superstar in this league and the best route towards one is through the draft... this is our best real chance at getting one beyond signing Durant.   

Post-lotto if that pick is sitting at #1... nobody in their right mind is trading that pick for Gordon Hayward.  But be careful when debating this not to assume that the pick will be #1.   This isn't Ben Simmons vs Gordon Hayward.   It's the Brooklyn pick vs Gordon Hayward.

Can you elaborate on the reading comprehension part? I'm only posting numbers that you posted. So please Mr. Hawking can you enlighten me as to why your calculations should be taken any more serious than those faulty predictions you constantly flood us with?
I'll try to be as clear as possible.  I'll even make my text a little larger for you.

We do not know if Ingrams and Simmons will actually be better than Hayward.  There is no way to determine real odds that they will be. 

As of January 30th, 2016... Boston has less than a 31.3% chance of landing Ingrams or Simmons.  Brooklyn has 34 games left to play.  The lottery doesn't happen on January 30th, 2016.  If Brooklyn rises out of the bottom 5, you're looking at 12% chance or less.

If you don't understand that, I can't help you.



Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #32 on: January 30, 2016, 10:33:20 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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It is far more likely that Hayward ends up better than what that pick ends up being.  But we aren't going anywhere without a superstar and that pick gives us a shot at one... even if we are talking like a 5% chance the pick ends up a better player than Hayward.

Wait a minute, since you're giving such little percentage of a top pick ending up better than Hayward, then why all the hype on the Sixers draft picks? You can't have it both ways, man. You need to stay consistent with your beliefs regardless on who the team is.


Philly has the worst record.  Brooklyn has the 3rd worst record.  People are underrating Hayward a bit.  There's very likely a couple players in this draft who likely will end up better than Hayward. But with half a season left we don't know whether the pick will land one of them and whether that player will live up to his potential. 

Even if we agreed that Brooklyn would stay in the bottom 3 and even if we agreed that both Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram would be significantly better than Hayward... If the season ends today there's a 68.7% chance we don't end up with a top 2 pick.   With half a season left and multiple teams tanking, who knows what will happen.

It's impossible to come up with real odds here, but the odds that the pick ends up being better than Hayward are staggeringly low.  Hayward is an all-star caliber player.  We are rolling the dice against the odds that we land a superstar instead.  I get it, but I also get why Zach Lowe suggested we move the pick for Hayward. 

Also Ed, once again you blatantly miss my point on philly.  If the Brooklyn pick could net us Hayward than obviously the philly pick could as well.  Factor that into their options heading forward when considering their bounty of assets.  Maybe you will finally get it.

You gave us a 5% chance of not landing a player as good as Hayward. Then state we have a 31.3% of getting a top 2 pick. Your math just doesn't add up.

Hate to break it to you, but Brooklyn sucked when the season began, currently sucks, and will continue to suck.
#1 - Assume that the wide-spread belief that Ingram and Simmons will be better than Hayward is true and that after them there's a significant drop off.

#2 - Assume Brooklyn stays in the bottom 3.

If the season ends today, based on those two assumptions, Boston has a 31.3% chance of ending up with a better player than Hayward.

Now let's step out of that bubble and recognize the following.

#1 - It's not a guarantee Brooklyn stays in the bottom 3.   The Suns and Wolves are on their heels.  If, for instance, they drop to 5th, we're looking at an 18.5% chance of landing Simmons or Ingram.   Know for a fact that we have half a season to play and as the season winds down, Brooklyn will not be tanking... Suns, Wolves and several other teams will.   Factor that in.

#2 - It's not a guarantee that either Ingram or Simmons will end up better than Hayward.  Factor that in.

If you've read what I said and your level of reading comprehension leads you to believe that Boston currently has a 31.3% chance of ending up with a better player than Hayward, I dunno what to say.  Have someone other than me explain it to you.  I feel like every time I post, you just cross your eyes and bang a tin pot on your head until my words say what you think they say.

Like I said, it's impossible to really come up with a true % of how likely it is that the pick ends up better than Hayward.  Ask some Utah fans and they'd undoubtedly tell you there's a 0% chance any pick in this draft ends up better than Hayward.  He's averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals on 44%/38%/82% shooting and he's 25 years old.  He's already a borderline all-star and he seems to be improving.   If you listen to Simmons most recent "Friday Rollin" podcast with Joe House, they suggested that Hayward can be even better than he currently appears based on the idea that he's literally never played with a quality point guard. 

But what I can say pretty confidently right now is that the odds that the Brooklyn pick ends up a better player than Gordon Hayward is significantly low right now. 

All that said, I don't think I'd move that pick for Gordon Hayward.  The allure of a true superstar is too powerful.   Even if the SUns and Wolves drop below the Nets leaving us with an 8.8% chance of landing Ben Simmons... it's fun to dream about... and who knows, maybe we can even get a bigger fish than Hayward by using that pick.  Could we package it for Blake Griffin at the deadline?  Kevin Love?  The goal is to get a superstar... and Hayward, as good as he is, isn't a superstar.  I totally get the "superstar or bust" mentality and that's why I'd probably turn down the offer despite the fact I know how low the odds are.   Also, it's still early... perhaps a couple other guys (like Dragon Bender or something) become major factors.  If you're rolling the dice on the "next LeBron" and your consolation prize is "the next Olynyk", maybe it's worth passing on a guy like Hayward.   Nobody is winning a title without a superstar in this league and the best route towards one is through the draft... this is our best real chance at getting one beyond signing Durant.   

Post-lotto if that pick is sitting at #1... nobody in their right mind is trading that pick for Gordon Hayward.  But be careful when debating this not to assume that the pick will be #1.   This isn't Ben Simmons vs Gordon Hayward.   It's the Brooklyn pick vs Gordon Hayward.

Can you elaborate on the reading comprehension part? I'm only posting numbers that you posted. So please Mr. Hawking can you enlighten me as to why your calculations should be taken any more serious than those faulty predictions you constantly flood us with?
I'll try to be as clear as possible.  I'll even make my text a little larger for you.

We do not know if Ingrams and Simmons will actually be better than Hayward.  There is no way to determine real odds that they will be. 

As of January 30th, 2016... Boston has less than a 31.3% chance of landing Ingrams or Simmons.  Brooklyn has 34 games left to play.  The lottery doesn't happen on January 30th, 2016.  If Brooklyn rises out of the bottom 5, you're looking at 12% chance or less.

l that, I can't help you.

Dude, you've been banging that Brooklyn drum for so long that you're like a dog howling at the moon. After a while, you just take it for what it is. That said, how are these teams going to "tank" exactly? Are players going to stop playing hard so they can draft a 19 year old that will eventually take their playing time, spotlight, etc.?

The problem is then you can't have this pessimistic outlook on the Nets pick due to uncertainty of a prospect developing or not, but have this rosy outlook on the Sixers pick of the same logic applies. The same logic does apply, right? So if after 4 years of tanking the odds aren't good to even have a player of Hayward's caliber then what does that say?

Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #33 on: January 30, 2016, 10:41:25 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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you're talkin in circles, Ed.  Has nothing to do with Philly.  Stop obsessing over them.  If I were Philly, I probably wouldn't trade that pick for Hayward either.

The Brooklyn pick is looking pretty good.  It's a good thing they didn't stay healthy.  Hopefully they continue to lose.  If the season ended today, I'd be super pumped to have a 31.3% chance of landing Simmons or Ingram.  Unfortunately, the Nets still have 34 games left to play and there's no telling where that pick will end up. 

Nobody can give you odds that the Brooklyn pick ends up a better player than Hayward, but based on some assumptions, the odds are already pretty slim.  I can guarantee you that not every single lotto pick in this draft is going to end up being a player who ends up averaging north of 20 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists with 44%/38%/84% shooting.   That's a pretty high bar to get above.   Still, you lose every bet you don't make.   I wouldn't move that pick for Hayward.  Partially because outside of signing Durant or trading for Blake (if you consider Blake worthy), that pick seems to be our only tiny shot at landing a superstar.  Also partially because I think a bigger fish than Hayward might enter the market.  Like Bill Simmons and Joe House said, if we have an opportunity to land someone like Blake Griffin for an Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Brooklyn 1st package, we would regret it if we had already given the Brooklyn pick away for Hayward.

PS - If you're looking for someone new to bother, go check out the Gallo thread and you'll find at least one person willing to move Brooklyn pick for Danilo.  I would much rather have Hayward.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2016, 10:47:04 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #34 on: January 30, 2016, 10:58:27 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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you're talkin in circles, Ed.  Has nothing to do with Philly.  Stop obsessing over them.  If I were Philly, I probably wouldn't trade that pick for Hayward either.

The Brooklyn pick is looking pretty good.  It's a good thing they didn't stay healthy.  Hopefully they continue to lose.  If the season ended today, I'd be super pumped to have a 31.3% chance of landing Simmons or Ingram.  Unfortunately, the Nets still have 34 games left to play and there's no telling where that pick will end up. 

Nobody can give you odds that the Brooklyn pick ends up a better player than Hayward, but based on some assumptions, the odds are already pretty slim.  I can guarantee you that not every single lotto pick in this draft is going to end up being a player who ends up averaging north of 20 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists with 44%/38%/84% shooting.   That's a pretty high bar to get above.   Still, you lose every bet you don't make.   I wouldn't move that pick for Hayward.  Partially because outside of signing Durant or trading for Blake (if you consider Blake worthy), that pick seems to be our only tiny shot at landing a superstar.  Also partially because I think a bigger fish than Hayward might enter the market.  Like Bill Simmons and Joe House said, if we have an opportunity to land someone like Blake Griffin for an Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Brooklyn 1st package, we would regret it if we had already given the Brooklyn pick away for Hayward.

PS - If you're looking for someone new to bother, go check out the Gallo thread and you'll find at least one person willing to move Brooklyn pick for Danilo.  I would much rather have Hayward.

You keep bringing up Bill Simmons and Joe House as if you're taking about Red and Dr. Jack.

Hayward is a good player, but he's not great. He's the jack of all trades/master of none that combined sneaky athleticism with average to below average defense. With this type of pick, you swing for the fences. There are plenty of players that have a higher ceiling than Hayward and the reward is you'll be taking that risk with a player on a minuscule (relatively speaking) rookie contract. 

Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #35 on: January 30, 2016, 11:00:31 PM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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I don't think you move that pick for someone like Hayward. I think you could swing a deal with Utah that didn't include the 2016 pick of they were looking to deal him. They've always liked AB, and he's younger than Hayward while being locked up for 3 years on like half the money.

But no, that pick is one of the most valuable picks in the league right now, and it's one almost everyone knows is on the table for the right player. Will they ask for it? Sure. Will they get it for a guy like Hayward (Butler connections and all)? No way. We traded #5 for Ray Allen. Brooklyn is trending down, and already has the 3rd best chance at the #1 pick in the draft. It's as close to a guaranteed top 5 pick as one could hope to get. But Ainge won't move it for anyone who can't make a serious claim at being a top 15-20 player. Hayward doesn't meet that description.

The Griffin thing is interesting because of the Doc connection, his recent issues and the fact that he's a top 15-20 player. He's only like 25 or 26 years old. There's a chance that could happen in a perfect storm, but you'd likely have to include at least one of Bradley/Crowder, Sullinger, a young guy (RJ?), and either the 2016 Brooklyn pick or the other two, and maybe then some. Considering Crowder's development and Bradley's value, that's a tough one. Griffin is a great player though. Interesting possibility. Stevens could do well with him.

Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #36 on: January 30, 2016, 11:06:21 PM »

Offline bruinsandceltics

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I wouldn't trade a 2% chance at Simmons for Gordon Hayward.

So no, I'm not trading a top 5 pick for him. Mid to late lottery? Sure. I'd add to that too. Top 5? No chance.

Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #37 on: January 30, 2016, 11:10:45 PM »

Offline ssspence

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I wouldn't trade a 2% chance at Simmons for Gordon Hayward.

So no, I'm not trading a top 5 pick for him. Mid to late lottery? Sure. I'd add to that too. Top 5? No chance.

I certainly undestand not trading the Nets pick for Hayward before the trading deadline. But if that pick did turn out to be 5 and Hayward was offered for it, I think it'd make more sense than your suggesting.
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Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #38 on: January 30, 2016, 11:48:17 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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It is far more likely that Hayward ends up better than what that pick ends up being.  But we aren't going anywhere without a superstar and that pick gives us a shot at one... even if we are talking like a 5% chance the pick ends up a better player than Hayward.
if Hayward ended up being the 5th pick (at worst) in a redraft of any draft class, that would be an absolutely horrendous draft.  I have little doubt that pick will be no worse than #5 and that whomever gets selected at that spot will have a better career (and if not that specific player, at least one player taken after that pick -- to allow for the varying draft skills of GMs)

Yeah, like I said... Hayward seems pretty underrated around here.  I disagree with your statement.   If the 5th pick in a re-draft ends up averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals on 44%/38%/82% shooting... the 4 guys above him must be pretty [dang] good.  We took Marcus SMart 6th... if he puts up those kind of numbers eventually, I'll be absolutely thrilled.

Also, re-drafts take into account every rookie who entered that year.   There's always potential to mis-fire with a top 5 pick. 
Let's take a look at Hayward's draft -- 2010 -- to see where he'd go in a redraft as an example.

Hayward was pick #9. 

Also in his draft class:
#1 John Wall  (better than Hayward)
#2 Evan Turner (not better than Hayward)
#3 Derrick Favors (I'd take him over Hayward and not think twice)
#4 Wesley Johnson (not better than Hayward)
#5 Demarcus Cousins (probably the top pick in a redraft)
ok, so stopping at just the top 5 picks, 3 of those players are preferable to Hayward.  Comfortably so.  Just looking at that, I would hang on to that pick.  But.. let's continue just for fun.
#7 Greg Monroe (I'd take him over Hayward)
#10 Paul George (definitely better than Hayward)
#15 Larry Sanders (was looking pretty promising until going off the deep end -- was looking better than Hayward)
#18 Eric Bledsoe (pre-injury was looking as good as or better than Hayward)
#19 Avery Bradley (Hayward's better but AB's not too shabby)
#33 Hassan Whiteside (not as good as Hayward has been but is improving and on teams' radar as a FA this offseason)

So, 6 maybe 7 players ahead of Hayward in a redraft of his class.  I don't think people are out of line by thinking that holding on to the Nets pick which figures to be 5th at the worst would be the smart move rather than trade it for a decent starting SF.  He's not Paul George or Kawhi Leonard.  I put him at the same level as Chandler Parsons.  Nice player to have.  capable starter.  not someone I trade a major asset for.

Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #39 on: January 31, 2016, 11:35:07 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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It is far more likely that Hayward ends up better than what that pick ends up being.  But we aren't going anywhere without a superstar and that pick gives us a shot at one... even if we are talking like a 5% chance the pick ends up a better player than Hayward.
if Hayward ended up being the 5th pick (at worst) in a redraft of any draft class, that would be an absolutely horrendous draft.  I have little doubt that pick will be no worse than #5 and that whomever gets selected at that spot will have a better career (and if not that specific player, at least one player taken after that pick -- to allow for the varying draft skills of GMs)

Yeah, like I said... Hayward seems pretty underrated around here.  I disagree with your statement.   If the 5th pick in a re-draft ends up averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals on 44%/38%/82% shooting... the 4 guys above him must be pretty [dang] good.  We took Marcus SMart 6th... if he puts up those kind of numbers eventually, I'll be absolutely thrilled.

Also, re-drafts take into account every rookie who entered that year.   There's always potential to mis-fire with a top 5 pick. 
Let's take a look at Hayward's draft -- 2010 -- to see where he'd go in a redraft as an example.

Hayward was pick #9. 

Also in his draft class:
#1 John Wall  (better than Hayward)
#2 Evan Turner (not better than Hayward)
#3 Derrick Favors (I'd take him over Hayward and not think twice)
#4 Wesley Johnson (not better than Hayward)
#5 Demarcus Cousins (probably the top pick in a redraft)
ok, so stopping at just the top 5 picks, 3 of those players are preferable to Hayward.  Comfortably so.  Just looking at that, I would hang on to that pick.  But.. let's continue just for fun.
#7 Greg Monroe (I'd take him over Hayward)
#10 Paul George (definitely better than Hayward)
#15 Larry Sanders (was looking pretty promising until going off the deep end -- was looking better than Hayward)
#18 Eric Bledsoe (pre-injury was looking as good as or better than Hayward)
#19 Avery Bradley (Hayward's better but AB's not too shabby)
#33 Hassan Whiteside (not as good as Hayward has been but is improving and on teams' radar as a FA this offseason)

So, 6 maybe 7 players ahead of Hayward in a redraft of his class.  I don't think people are out of line by thinking that holding on to the Nets pick which figures to be 5th at the worst would be the smart move rather than trade it for a decent starting SF.  He's not Paul George or Kawhi Leonard.  I put him at the same level as Chandler Parsons.  Nice player to have.  capable starter.  not someone I trade a major asset for.
Neato. That was a nice draft.  And the fact Evan turner and Wesley Johnson ended up in the top 5 illustrates why Zach Lowe thought Hayward for the Brooklyn pick made sense.

Re: Would you swap The Nets pick For Hayward
« Reply #40 on: February 01, 2016, 06:45:14 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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It is far more likely that Hayward ends up better than what that pick ends up being.  But we aren't going anywhere without a superstar and that pick gives us a shot at one... even if we are talking like a 5% chance the pick ends up a better player than Hayward.
if Hayward ended up being the 5th pick (at worst) in a redraft of any draft class, that would be an absolutely horrendous draft.  I have little doubt that pick will be no worse than #5 and that whomever gets selected at that spot will have a better career (and if not that specific player, at least one player taken after that pick -- to allow for the varying draft skills of GMs)

Yeah, like I said... Hayward seems pretty underrated around here.  I disagree with your statement.   If the 5th pick in a re-draft ends up averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals on 44%/38%/82% shooting... the 4 guys above him must be pretty [dang] good.  We took Marcus SMart 6th... if he puts up those kind of numbers eventually, I'll be absolutely thrilled.

Also, re-drafts take into account every rookie who entered that year.   There's always potential to mis-fire with a top 5 pick. 
Let's take a look at Hayward's draft -- 2010 -- to see where he'd go in a redraft as an example.

Hayward was pick #9. 

Also in his draft class:
#1 John Wall  (better than Hayward)
#2 Evan Turner (not better than Hayward)
#3 Derrick Favors (I'd take him over Hayward and not think twice)
#4 Wesley Johnson (not better than Hayward)
#5 Demarcus Cousins (probably the top pick in a redraft)
ok, so stopping at just the top 5 picks, 3 of those players are preferable to Hayward.  Comfortably so.  Just looking at that, I would hang on to that pick.  But.. let's continue just for fun.
#7 Greg Monroe (I'd take him over Hayward)
#10 Paul George (definitely better than Hayward)
#15 Larry Sanders (was looking pretty promising until going off the deep end -- was looking better than Hayward)
#18 Eric Bledsoe (pre-injury was looking as good as or better than Hayward)
#19 Avery Bradley (Hayward's better but AB's not too shabby)
#33 Hassan Whiteside (not as good as Hayward has been but is improving and on teams' radar as a FA this offseason)

So, 6 maybe 7 players ahead of Hayward in a redraft of his class.  I don't think people are out of line by thinking that holding on to the Nets pick which figures to be 5th at the worst would be the smart move rather than trade it for a decent starting SF.  He's not Paul George or Kawhi Leonard.  I put him at the same level as Chandler Parsons.  Nice player to have.  capable starter.  not someone I trade a major asset for.

I'm not taking Monroe over Hayward. I'd also argue that whilst Bledsoe might have been playing better, injury history has to count for something and he's had a couple of major ones. So he's below Hayward. I'd say he's 6th overall in a re-draft.

Still, on the wider point we shouldn't trade the Brooklyn pick for anyone less than a true star. For every potential rebuilding program there comes a point where you have to gamble. The Brooklyn picks are our gamble for a Tier 1 star. Maybe it pays off, maybe it doesn't, but that's what they are and that's why we're here