It is far more likely that Hayward ends up better than what that pick ends up being. But we aren't going anywhere without a superstar and that pick gives us a shot at one... even if we are talking like a 5% chance the pick ends up a better player than Hayward.
if Hayward ended up being the 5th pick (at worst) in a redraft of any draft class, that would be an absolutely horrendous draft. I have little doubt that pick will be no worse than #5 and that whomever gets selected at that spot will have a better career (and if not that specific player, at least one player taken after that pick -- to allow for the varying draft skills of GMs)
Yeah, like I said... Hayward seems pretty underrated around here. I disagree with your statement. If the 5th pick in a re-draft ends up averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals on 44%/38%/82% shooting... the 4 guys above him must be pretty [dang] good. We took Marcus SMart 6th... if he puts up those kind of numbers eventually, I'll be absolutely thrilled.
Also, re-drafts take into account every rookie who entered that year. There's always potential to mis-fire with a top 5 pick.
Let's take a look at Hayward's draft -- 2010 -- to see where he'd go in a redraft as an example.
Hayward was pick #9.
Also in his draft class:
#1 John Wall (better than Hayward)
#2 Evan Turner (not better than Hayward)
#3 Derrick Favors (I'd take him over Hayward and not think twice)
#4 Wesley Johnson (not better than Hayward)
#5 Demarcus Cousins (probably the top pick in a redraft)
ok, so stopping at just the top 5 picks, 3 of those players are preferable to Hayward. Comfortably so. Just looking at that, I would hang on to that pick. But.. let's continue just for fun.
#7 Greg Monroe (I'd take him over Hayward)
#10 Paul George (definitely better than Hayward)
#15 Larry Sanders (was looking pretty promising until going off the deep end -- was looking better than Hayward)
#18 Eric Bledsoe (pre-injury was looking as good as or better than Hayward)
#19 Avery Bradley (Hayward's better but AB's not too shabby)
#33 Hassan Whiteside (not as good as Hayward has been but is improving and on teams' radar as a FA this offseason)
So, 6 maybe 7 players ahead of Hayward in a redraft of his class. I don't think people are out of line by thinking that holding on to the Nets pick which figures to be 5th at the worst would be the smart move rather than trade it for a decent starting SF. He's not Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. I put him at the same level as Chandler Parsons. Nice player to have. capable starter. not someone I trade a major asset for.