2016 draft pick tracker

[Csfan1984]

TP for the update

[mef730]

TP

I agree with you about Dallas. 27 games seems like a lot of time to make up the two game difference with Houston, but it isn't.

I'm loving us at 23 and wish it were 26 or 27. Anecdote: Two years ago, I was in major tank mode. Last year, I was in semi-tank mode. But this is the first year in a while that, when I've come home from the game, my wife will ask me who won but not follow it up with "is that good or bad?"

Mike

[slamtheking]

TP

I agree with you about Dallas. 27 games seems like a lot of time to make up the two game difference with Houston, but it isn't.

I'm loving us at 23 and wish it were 26 or 27. Anecdote: Two years ago, I was in major tank mode. Last year, I was in semi-tank mode. But this is the first year in a while that, when I've come home from the game, my wife will ask me who won but not follow it up with "is that good or bad?"

Mike

I'm perfectly happy letting Brooklyn do the tanking for us.  I don't see us getting as high as 26 or 27.  you can chisel in stone Cle, Tor, GSW, SAS, LAC, OKC finishing better than us.  that's #24 at the highest.  with Gasol out, we might climb that high but the East is still very competitive and there's 30 games to go.  C's could slide back to the pack or if Danny makes a trade, you never know what will happen with the team's performance.

[slamtheking]

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 2/22/16 -- will try to update weekly

I'd normally give it at least a full week after the all-star break before posting updates but we've had a couple of picks noticeably shift in just a few days of games.

Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #4 currently
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Minnesota         +2                      17                    26                 3-7   
Brooklyn           --                        15                26                 3-7
Phoenix             -1                       14                    26                 0-10

--> Phx in full tank mode and passed Brooklyn.  Unless the Morris deal is the cure for that lockerroom, I'm beginning to believe the ship has sailed on a top 3 slot going into the lottery.  still don't see the Nets catching Minny but we'll keep tracking it.  Predicted a bottom-5 finish in preseason so a top 4 pick wouldn't suck.

Boston Pick #23 

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Memphis         even                    32                     27                 7-3
Boston          ---                          33                  25                  7-3
Miami                -1                        31                    27                 7-3
Atlanta              -2                        31                    25                 4-6
Indiana              -2                        30                   27                  7-3

--> C's are pretty solidly in this pocket of teams.  It's going to take a serious stretch of losing for them to really slide back at this point.  looking at the upcoming schedule, I'm anticipating a C's win streak of 7-8 games so I don't see a backward slide for a few weeks at least.

Dallas Pick #17 -- protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Miami                +2                        31                    27                 7-3
Atlanta               +1                        31                    25                 4-6
Indiana               +1                       30                    27                 7-3
Charlotte            even                    29                    27                 7-3
Chicago             even                    29                     27                 3-7
===========Eastern Conference Playoff cutoff==============
Dallas               ----                     30                    25                 4-6
Portland             -.5                        29                    26                  9-1
Houston             -1.5                      28                    26                  4-6   
Utah                   -2                         27                   27                   7-3+
===========Western Conference Playoff cutoff==============
Detroit              -2.5                         27                    26                 2-8

-->Dallas has finally fallen behind all the Eastern playoff teams.  if/once Dallas falls out of the Western playoffs, their pick will jump several slots.   Portland, Houston and Utah all have a decent shot of making that happen.  Also, Detroit could pass them in the standings as well in terms of lottery positioning.  could push this pick as high as #12 which would be nice.  Also having a nice impact on that Dallas second rounder-->going from an after thought to a possibly decent chip to sweeten a trade.

Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #35
Dallas (better of Dallas or Memphis) - #47
Miami - #52
Cleveland - #58


2016
first rounders
Boston
Brooklyn
Dallas (protected 1-7)
Minnesota (protected 1-12)

Second rounders
Cleveland
Philly
Miami
Best of Dallas/Memphis
Minnesota (if 1st not conveyed)

[chilidawg]

Brooklyn has a 9 game road trip starting, with stops at both Phoenix and Minny.  We'll know a lot about how things are going after that.  Phoenix has had a brutal schedule of late, and has been playing good teams tough.  Maybe as things ease up they'll go on a bit of a roll.

538 currently projects the Nets and Suns to tie:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/
Click on Record to order by projected record.

[slamtheking]

Brooklyn has a 9 game road trip starting, with stops at both Phoenix and Minny.  We'll know a lot about how things are going after that.  Phoenix has had a brutal schedule of late, and has been playing good teams tough.  Maybe as things ease up they'll go on a bit of a roll.

538 currently projects the Nets and Suns to tie:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/
Click on Record to order by projected record.

I could be satisfied with a tie -- provided however we end up after the coin flip ends up being the slot that wins the lottery   

[HuskerCeltic]

Brooklyn has a 9 game road trip starting, with stops at both Phoenix and Minny.  We'll know a lot about how things are going after that.  Phoenix has had a brutal schedule of late, and has been playing good teams tough.  Maybe as things ease up they'll go on a bit of a roll.

538 currently projects the Nets and Suns to tie:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/
Click on Record to order by projected record.

I could be satisfied with a tie -- provided however we end up after the coin flip ends up being the slot that wins the lottery   

This also projects the Mavs to drop out of the playoffs and gives us the 14th pick. Very nice!

[slamtheking]

Brooklyn has a 9 game road trip starting, with stops at both Phoenix and Minny.  We'll know a lot about how things are going after that.  Phoenix has had a brutal schedule of late, and has been playing good teams tough.  Maybe as things ease up they'll go on a bit of a roll.

538 currently projects the Nets and Suns to tie:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/
Click on Record to order by projected record.

I could be satisfied with a tie -- provided however we end up after the coin flip ends up being the slot that wins the lottery   

This also projects the Mavs to drop out of the playoffs and gives us the 14th pick. Very nice!

a good-news day all the way around it seems!!

[chilidawg]

Brooklyn has a 9 game road trip starting, with stops at both Phoenix and Minny.  We'll know a lot about how things are going after that.  Phoenix has had a brutal schedule of late, and has been playing good teams tough.  Maybe as things ease up they'll go on a bit of a roll.

538 currently projects the Nets and Suns to tie:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/
Click on Record to order by projected record.

I could be satisfied with a tie -- provided however we end up after the coin flip ends up being the slot that wins the lottery   

This also projects the Mavs to drop out of the playoffs and gives us the 14th pick. Very nice!

The list orders them by their Carm-Elo rating, not by projected record.  If you click Record at the top you'll see they have the Mavs a game ahead of the Jazz and 2 ahead of the Rockets, 7th seed in the West.  No reason not to hope though, 1 or 2 games would probably easily be within the error bar of the projections.

[Ilikesports17]

Starting to fall in love with Buddy Hield.

Id obviously love to take Ingram or Simmons, but I am coming around on Dunn Brown and Hield.

I havent seen any of Bender so I wont comment on him, but if the Nets pick yielded any of the above 5 I think Id be decently happy. All look like they will be pretty solid pros even if there is less star potential than you might like.

[slamtheking]

Starting to fall in love with Buddy Hield.

Id obviously love to take Ingram or Simmons, but I am coming around on Dunn Brown and Hield.

I havent seen any of Bender so I wont comment on him, but if the Nets pick yielded any of the above 5 I think Id be decently happy. All look like they will be pretty solid pros even if there is less star potential than you might like.

honestly, I think if Danny ends up keeping the pick, we'll get a guy that will be heavy rotation player by their second season.  I don't think anyone could complain about that.

[libermaniac]

Brooklyn has a 9 game road trip starting, with stops at both Phoenix and Minny.  We'll know a lot about how things are going after that.  Phoenix has had a brutal schedule of late, and has been playing good teams tough.  Maybe as things ease up they'll go on a bit of a roll.

538 currently projects the Nets and Suns to tie:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/
Click on Record to order by projected record.

Barring a quick injury to Young or Lopez, the Nets will not be anywhere close to tying Phoenix.  We can all kiss the 3rd slot goodbye.  Phoenix is horrible and may win 3-4 more games this year.  The Nets could win 4 out of their next 10.  The only real question is whether Minny can hold off the Nets, and thanks to the C's last night, they now have a better chance at that ;-)

[Quetzalcoatl]

It's funny that the Nets pick winning the lotto and getting us Simmons + Dallas falling to 12 and getting us Skal is in play right now

[mef730]

TP. I feel like it was just yesterday when I was thinking, hmm, wonder when slam will start the tracker back up. And now, I'm thinking, who do we take at 5, 17 and 22?

Brooklyn has a 9 game road trip starting, with stops at both Phoenix and Minny.  We'll know a lot about how things are going after that.  Phoenix has had a brutal schedule of late, and has been playing good teams tough.  Maybe as things ease up they'll go on a bit of a roll.

538 currently projects the Nets and Suns to tie:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/
Click on Record to order by projected record.

Barring a quick injury to Young or Lopez, the Nets will not be anywhere close to tying Phoenix.  We can all kiss the 3rd slot goodbye.  Phoenix is horrible and may win 3-4 more games this year.  The Nets could win 4 out of their next 10.  The only real question is whether Minny can hold off the Nets, and thanks to the C's last night, they now have a better chance at that ;-)

I have to agree. Yes, Phoenix has had a rough schedule, but they are still horrid. Furthermore, although the Nets are about to start a big road trip, they don't exactly have the most difficult competition.

Time is in our favor. With 25 games left, that two game gap between Minneapolis and Brooklyn gets exponentially bigger every day. Unfortunately, it works the same way for Dallas who, after OKC tomorrow, hosts Denver, Minny, Orlando and Sacramento, followed by an away game at Denver. If we make it through that run in contention for the lottery, Dallas could end up big for us.

Based on today's standings, our most likely picks are 5, 17 and 22. I see Kris Dunn, Timothe Luwawu and Damian Jones (huge risk, big upside) in our future.

Mike

[mef730]

It's funny that the Nets pick winning the lotto and getting us Simmons + Dallas falling to 12 and getting us Skal is in play right now

What would you have given at the beginning of the year if somebody had told you that we would have more than an outside shot at those two come draft time? I'm thinking that this sums it up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-WhIpdqrNk

Mike