2016 draft pick tracker

[trickybilly]

Also, decent day developing here. Dallas losing again. Denver with a handy lead over the Raps.

[trickybilly]

Utah are about to do us a little favor now too..

[mef730]

And we've got one more good one tonight, either a Minny win or a LAL win. I'd prefer the latter, but hey, I take what I can get.

Mike

[slamtheking]

And we've got one more good one tonight, either a Minny win or a LAL win. I'd prefer the latter, but hey, I take what I can get.

Mike

I'm giving up hopes that LA catches the Nets and forget the Wolves getting to #13 in the lottery (to convey that pick) but I'll go with the Wolves to put a little more space between them and the Nets

[mef730]

And we've got one more good one tonight, either a Minny win or a LAL win. I'd prefer the latter, but hey, I take what I can get.

Mike

I'm giving up hopes that LA catches the Nets and forget the Wolves getting to #13 in the lottery (to convey that pick) but I'll go with the Wolves to put a little more space between them and the Nets

I can see that. 33 games left, three game difference, it could be tough. For a while, it looked like the Lakers could make a late-season comeback.

#459 on the list of "Ways to Know that You Spend Too Much Time Thinking about the Draft Pick:" I'm enlisting statistician friends to help me develop a model to predict where the draft pick will end up.

Mike

[slamtheking]

And we've got one more good one tonight, either a Minny win or a LAL win. I'd prefer the latter, but hey, I take what I can get.

Mike

I'm giving up hopes that LA catches the Nets and forget the Wolves getting to #13 in the lottery (to convey that pick) but I'll go with the Wolves to put a little more space between them and the Nets

I can see that. 33 games left, three game difference, it could be tough. For a while, it looked like the Lakers could make a late-season comeback.

#459 on the list of "Ways to Know that You Spend Too Much Time Thinking about the Draft Pick:" I'm enlisting statistician friends to help me develop a model to predict where the draft pick will end up.

Mike

I'm hoping you come up with something that supports the C's landing in the top slot regardless of where the Nets actually finish the season. 

don't look now but on another positive note, Dallas is now just 1.5 games ahead of Houston with Houston having 2 very winnable games in the next few days @Phx and home against Portland with Dallas playing SA at home and @Memphis.  fingers crossed that by the time I send out the next standings update on Monday, Dallas will have slid down to the 7th seed for the first time this year. 

With luck, Portland splits their next 2 games (tough with the other one against Toronto) and Utah picks up a couple of winnable games against Milwaukee and @Phx.  Would be nice to see each of them close the gap with Dallas for that #8 spot since they're currently 3 games behind Dallas.

[mef730]

And we've got one more good one tonight, either a Minny win or a LAL win. I'd prefer the latter, but hey, I take what I can get.

Mike

I'm giving up hopes that LA catches the Nets and forget the Wolves getting to #13 in the lottery (to convey that pick) but I'll go with the Wolves to put a little more space between them and the Nets

I can see that. 33 games left, three game difference, it could be tough. For a while, it looked like the Lakers could make a late-season comeback.

#459 on the list of "Ways to Know that You Spend Too Much Time Thinking about the Draft Pick:" I'm enlisting statistician friends to help me develop a model to predict where the draft pick will end up.

Mike

I'm hoping you come up with something that supports the C's landing in the top slot regardless of where the Nets actually finish the season. 

don't look now but on another positive note, Dallas is now just 1.5 games ahead of Houston with Houston having 2 very winnable games in the next few days @Phx and home against Portland with Dallas playing SA at home and @Memphis.  fingers crossed that by the time I send out the next standings update on Monday, Dallas will have slid down to the 7th seed for the first time this year. 

With luck, Portland splits their next 2 games (tough with the other one against Toronto) and Utah picks up a couple of winnable games against Milwaukee and @Phx.  Would be nice to see each of them close the gap with Dallas for that #8 spot since they're currently 3 games behind Dallas.

Of course I could, it's statistics! Can't promise accuracy, though. Currently working on determining the odds that PHX could overtake BKN with a 2-game difference and 32 remaining. With NO at 18 wins, I'm moving them out of the "danger zone." Truthfully, I think Minnesota will also move out soon, even with 15 wins. PHX scares the heck out of me for reasons discussed upthread. For those same reasons, btw, I don't see Dallas missing the playoffs. I don't care how tough your schedule is, five games is a lot to make up with 30 remaining. The best I see from them is about a #16 pick.

Mike

[Spilling Green Dye]

Mike, I believe what you're looking for may already exist:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

I've checked the site multiple times and it seems to update each day!  have fun

-Mike D

[mef730]

Mike, I believe what you're looking for may already exist:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

I've checked the site multiple times and it seems to update each day!  have fun

-Mike D

Thanks! TP to you.

As much as I like that result, I can't get there with Phoenix/Brooklyn. And who would you trust, a guy with an advanced statistics background or me?

Mike

Mike

[slamtheking]

well, one step closer to Houston catching Dallas last night.  only 1 game back now. 

not to get ahead of myself but I'm pretty confident about a SA win over Dallas tonight to further close the gap.  Utah could inch closer with a win over Milwaukee tonight too

one other note.  Lakers now only one win behind Nets.  getting close

[mef730]

Mike, I believe what you're looking for may already exist:  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

I've checked the site multiple times and it seems to update each day!  have fun

-Mike D

I just read through the explanation. It looks great. The only downside is that they don't seem to adjust for injuries:

(Using a player-based system also potentially allows us to make empirical adjustments to team ratings as trades are made or star players are injured. We don’t plan to make any such adjustments for now, but we might introduce them later in the season.)

On the plus side, they moved the Lakers above the Nets.

Mike

[chilidawg]

On the plus side, they moved the Lakers above the Nets.

Mike

They're listed above the Nets based on their Elo ranking (actually they're tied) but their projected record is two games worse.  Must have a tougher schedule.

[slamtheking]

nothing like counting my chickens before they hatch.  Dallas wins.  Houston loses

[slamtheking]

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 2/8/16 -- will try to update weekly

Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #3 currently
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Minnesota         +3                      16                    30                 3-7   
Phoenix             +1                      14                    30                 1-9
Brooklyn           --                        13                30                 2-8
Lakers               -2.5                       9                  29                  2.8

--> Lakers are a bit closer but Phx is going full-on tank right now.  At least it looks like Minny is pulling ahead a bit.  Brooklyn seems pretty solid as the top-5 pre-lottery pick I predicted in preseason.  I think at worst, Brooklyn may slide to #4 before the lottery but that will still get us someone really good.  (that and #4 does well in the lottery drawing)

Boston Pick #23 

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Memphis         even                    30                    31                 8-2
Boston          ---                          31                  29                  9-1
Atlanta              -1                        30                    29                 4-6
Miami                -1.5                     29                   30                 6-4
Chicago            -2.5                     27                   30                 6-4
Dallas               -2.5                     29                    28                 4-6

--> C's really jumped in the standings by continuing a good 10 game stretch while everyone around them in the standings was treading water at best.  Their pick changed 4 slots.

Dallas Pick #19 -- protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Atlanta              +1.5                     30                    29                 4-6
Miami                +1                       29                   30                  6-4
Chicago            even                     27                   30                 6-4
Dallas               ----                     29                    28                 4-6
Indiana            -.5                         27                    31                 5-5
Detroit              -1                         27                    30                 4-6
Houston           -1.5                      27                    29                  5-5
Utah                 -2                         25                    32                  7-3
===========Western Conference Playoff cutoff==============

-->Memphis pulling further ahead of Dallas so that's a good trend.  Houston had a chance to catch them over the weekend and blew it.  Still close enough to catch them soon if they get their act together.  Jazz gained enough ground to make them relevant in the standings this week.  Portland gaining ground too so fingers crossed they all catch Dallas before the end of the season==>Mavs 3 games from missing the playoffs right now.  would result in #13 if that were the case right now


Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #35
Dallas (better of Dallas or Memphis) - #49
Miami - #51
Cleveland - #57


2016
first rounders
Boston
Brooklyn
Dallas (protected 1-7)
Minnesota (protected 1-12)

Second rounders
Cleveland
Philly
Miami
Best of Dallas/Memphis
Minnesota (if 1st not conveyed)

[slamtheking]

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 2/11/16 -- will try to update weekly

ALL-STAR BREAK

Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #3 currently  (tied with Phx)
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Minnesota         +3                      17                    28                 3-7   
Phoenix             even                 14                    28                 1-9
Brooklyn           --                        14                28                 3-7
Lakers               -3.5                    11                    27                  2.8

--> Phx in full tank mode and Brooklyn has caught them.  At this stage, I think it's just a 2-team "race" to be worse between Brooklyn and Phx.  I don't see the Lakers catching up to them (particularly since they want to keep their pick) nor do I see Minny falling behind Brooklyn in the time left this season.

Boston Pick #23 

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Memphis         even                    31                    29                 7-3
Boston          ---                          32                  27                  8-2
Atlanta              -1                        31                    27                 5-5
Miami               -2                        29                    29                 6-4

--> C's are pretty solidly in this pocket of teams.  It's going to take a serious stretch of losing for them to really slide back at this point.

Dallas Pick #19 -- protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Atlanta              +2                        31                    27                 5-5
Miami                +1                       29                    29                 6-4
Indiana             even                   28                    29                  5-5
Dallas               ----                     29                    27                 4-6
Chicago            -.5                       27                   30                   3-7
Charlotte           -1                        27                   29                   7-3
Portland            -1.5                     27                   28                   8-2
Utah                 -1.5                      26                   30                   8-2
===========Western Conference Playoff cutoff==============
Detroit              -2                         27                    28                 4-6


-->Memphis may fall back to the pack with the recent injuries.  Utah and Portland gaining ground but Houston dropped like a rock so Dallas is still looking like it'll make the playoffs at the moment.

Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #35
Dallas (better of Dallas or Memphis) - #49
Miami - #51
Cleveland - #57


2016
first rounders
Boston
Brooklyn
Dallas (protected 1-7)
Minnesota (protected 1-12)

Second rounders
Cleveland
Philly
Miami
Best of Dallas/Memphis
Minnesota (if 1st not conveyed)