Author Topic: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?  (Read 33941 times)

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Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #45 on: December 28, 2015, 12:36:51 AM »

Offline ssspence

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I don't see why the Sixers wouldn't take Smart for Noel. He gives them what they need while a pack is just a crapshoot.
In case I wasn't clear, I'm pretty sure that any discussion about Nerlens Noel starts with Marcus Smart AND one of the Brooklyn picks. Folks around here massively overvalue Smart.

And other folks massively overvalue Noel.  Philly would ask for something like the Nets pick this year for Noel, so that is what it would take to get him.  But no team would give up anything close to that.

I'm sure Ainge and every other GM in the league likes Noel's potential but they also recognize in his regression this year that he's a role player at best.

Mike
I don't think a Brooklyn pick would be required, but do think it would take Smart plus other things.  I don't think those other things need to be super high value assets, but I just don't see Smart as enough. 

So probably something like Noel + 2nd round pick for Smart + Zeller... something along those lines is how you'd value it?
No, I don't see them sending away a draft pick or having a need for Zeller.  Noel for Smart and KO seems to be in the range.
So now you're throwing in Olynyk? I believe strongly that of all the Cs on rookie contracts, KO is the least likely to be traded. Ainge absolutely loves him.

Meanwhile, you trade for a guy like Noel because he fits with Kelly.
He fits with Sullinger.

I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion, but I'm also not sure how you figured there's "no need for Zeller" but they'd add Olynyk instead. If you think the Cs (or the NBA) values Zeller over Olynyk, I'd say it's fair to question your judgement.
the Sixers have no need for Zeller.  I thought that was pretty obvious

So you fugured just toss them someone of far greater value?
Mike

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Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #46 on: December 28, 2015, 06:49:25 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I don't see why the Sixers wouldn't take Smart for Noel. He gives them what they need while a pack is just a crapshoot.
In case I wasn't clear, I'm pretty sure that any discussion about Nerlens Noel starts with Marcus Smart AND one of the Brooklyn picks. Folks around here massively overvalue Smart.

And other folks massively overvalue Noel.  Philly would ask for something like the Nets pick this year for Noel, so that is what it would take to get him.  But no team would give up anything close to that.

I'm sure Ainge and every other GM in the league likes Noel's potential but they also recognize in his regression this year that he's a role player at best.

Mike
I don't think a Brooklyn pick would be required, but do think it would take Smart plus other things.  I don't think those other things need to be super high value assets, but I just don't see Smart as enough. 

So probably something like Noel + 2nd round pick for Smart + Zeller... something along those lines is how you'd value it?
No, I don't see them sending away a draft pick or having a need for Zeller.  Noel for Smart and KO seems to be in the range.
So now you're throwing in Olynyk? I believe strongly that of all the Cs on rookie contracts, KO is the least likely to be traded. Ainge absolutely loves him.

Meanwhile, you trade for a guy like Noel because he fits with Kelly.
He fits with Sullinger.

I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion, but I'm also not sure how you figured there's "no need for Zeller" but they'd add Olynyk instead. If you think the Cs (or the NBA) values Zeller over Olynyk, I'd say it's fair to question your judgement.
the Sixers have no need for Zeller.  I thought that was pretty obvious

So you fugured just toss them someone of far greater value?
yeah, Noel is more valuable than Smart.  That was the point.
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Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #47 on: December 28, 2015, 07:05:51 AM »

Offline slightly biased bias fan

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I don't see why the Sixers wouldn't take Smart for Noel. He gives them what they need while a pack is just a crapshoot.
In case I wasn't clear, I'm pretty sure that any discussion about Nerlens Noel starts with Marcus Smart AND one of the Brooklyn picks. Folks around here massively overvalue Smart.

And other folks massively overvalue Noel.  Philly would ask for something like the Nets pick this year for Noel, so that is what it would take to get him.  But no team would give up anything close to that.

I'm sure Ainge and every other GM in the league likes Noel's potential but they also recognize in his regression this year that he's a role player at best.

Mike
I don't think a Brooklyn pick would be required, but do think it would take Smart plus other things.  I don't think those other things need to be super high value assets, but I just don't see Smart as enough. 

So probably something like Noel + 2nd round pick for Smart + Zeller... something along those lines is how you'd value it?
No, I don't see them sending away a draft pick or having a need for Zeller.  Noel for Smart and KO seems to be in the range.
So now you're throwing in Olynyk? I believe strongly that of all the Cs on rookie contracts, KO is the least likely to be traded. Ainge absolutely loves him.

Meanwhile, you trade for a guy like Noel because he fits with Kelly.
He fits with Sullinger.

I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion, but I'm also not sure how you figured there's "no need for Zeller" but they'd add Olynyk instead. If you think the Cs (or the NBA) values Zeller over Olynyk, I'd say it's fair to question your judgement.
the Sixers have no need for Zeller.  I thought that was pretty obvious

So you fugured just toss them someone of far greater value?
yeah, Noel is more valuable than Smart.  That was the point.

I love Noel but why does everyone come to this conclusion so easily? Noel plays for a terrible team that is screaming for offence, even bad offence and so far all Noel has mustered is 9.9 ppg. in 30 min career. A half decent play should be averaging close to 15 ppg and his ft% is 0.60.

While Smart is technically on a win now team where he must play a restricted offensive role and has been hampered with injuries his first 2 years and still has 8 ppg. in 27 min and people on here talk about how terrible Smart's offence is on here.

So how can it be so cut and dry that Nerlens is a better player?

Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #48 on: December 28, 2015, 08:12:59 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I don't see why the Sixers wouldn't take Smart for Noel. He gives them what they need while a pack is just a crapshoot.
In case I wasn't clear, I'm pretty sure that any discussion about Nerlens Noel starts with Marcus Smart AND one of the Brooklyn picks. Folks around here massively overvalue Smart.

And other folks massively overvalue Noel.  Philly would ask for something like the Nets pick this year for Noel, so that is what it would take to get him.  But no team would give up anything close to that.

I'm sure Ainge and every other GM in the league likes Noel's potential but they also recognize in his regression this year that he's a role player at best.

Mike
I don't think a Brooklyn pick would be required, but do think it would take Smart plus other things.  I don't think those other things need to be super high value assets, but I just don't see Smart as enough. 

So probably something like Noel + 2nd round pick for Smart + Zeller... something along those lines is how you'd value it?
No, I don't see them sending away a draft pick or having a need for Zeller.  Noel for Smart and KO seems to be in the range.
So now you're throwing in Olynyk? I believe strongly that of all the Cs on rookie contracts, KO is the least likely to be traded. Ainge absolutely loves him.

Meanwhile, you trade for a guy like Noel because he fits with Kelly.
He fits with Sullinger.

I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion, but I'm also not sure how you figured there's "no need for Zeller" but they'd add Olynyk instead. If you think the Cs (or the NBA) values Zeller over Olynyk, I'd say it's fair to question your judgement.
the Sixers have no need for Zeller.  I thought that was pretty obvious

So you fugured just toss them someone of far greater value?
yeah, Noel is more valuable than Smart.  That was the point.

I love Noel but why does everyone come to this conclusion so easily? Noel plays for a terrible team that is screaming for offence, even bad offence and so far all Noel has mustered is 9.9 ppg. in 30 min career. A half decent play should be averaging close to 15 ppg and his ft% is 0.60.

While Smart is technically on a win now team where he must play a restricted offensive role and has been hampered with injuries his first 2 years and still has 8 ppg. in 27 min and people on here talk about how terrible Smart's offence is on here.

So how can it be so cut and dry that Nerlens is a better player?
He is a better defender and plays at a premium position.  It isn't that difficult to understand. 
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Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #49 on: December 28, 2015, 08:26:04 AM »

Offline Yb2

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You can compare Smarts defence to ABs or TAs or even Kawahis, but you can't compare it to Noel. They simply do not play the same position and not against the same opposition. Their defences are bound to be different because of need of the position and type of opposition.
The only thing you can argue is that Noel is a C, something Boston is looking for.
But just ask your self this question. when was the last time a defensive center with terrible O able to lift a team to a championship?

Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #50 on: December 28, 2015, 08:32:29 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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I don't see why the Sixers wouldn't take Smart for Noel. He gives them what they need while a pack is just a crapshoot.
In case I wasn't clear, I'm pretty sure that any discussion about Nerlens Noel starts with Marcus Smart AND one of the Brooklyn picks. Folks around here massively overvalue Smart.

And other folks massively overvalue Noel.  Philly would ask for something like the Nets pick this year for Noel, so that is what it would take to get him.  But no team would give up anything close to that.

I'm sure Ainge and every other GM in the league likes Noel's potential but they also recognize in his regression this year that he's a role player at best.

Mike
I don't think a Brooklyn pick would be required, but do think it would take Smart plus other things.  I don't think those other things need to be super high value assets, but I just don't see Smart as enough. 

So probably something like Noel + 2nd round pick for Smart + Zeller... something along those lines is how you'd value it?
No, I don't see them sending away a draft pick or having a need for Zeller.  Noel for Smart and KO seems to be in the range.
So now you're throwing in Olynyk? I believe strongly that of all the Cs on rookie contracts, KO is the least likely to be traded. Ainge absolutely loves him.

Meanwhile, you trade for a guy like Noel because he fits with Kelly.
He fits with Sullinger.

I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion, but I'm also not sure how you figured there's "no need for Zeller" but they'd add Olynyk instead. If you think the Cs (or the NBA) values Zeller over Olynyk, I'd say it's fair to question your judgement.
the Sixers have no need for Zeller.  I thought that was pretty obvious

So you fugured just toss them someone of far greater value?
yeah, Noel is more valuable than Smart.  That was the point.

I love Noel but why does everyone come to this conclusion so easily? Noel plays for a terrible team that is screaming for offence, even bad offence and so far all Noel has mustered is 9.9 ppg. in 30 min career. A half decent play should be averaging close to 15 ppg and his ft% is 0.60.

While Smart is technically on a win now team where he must play a restricted offensive role and has been hampered with injuries his first 2 years and still has 8 ppg. in 27 min and people on here talk about how terrible Smart's offence is on here.

So how can it be so cut and dry that Nerlens is a better player?
He is a better defender and plays at a premium position.  It isn't that difficult to understand. 
better defender?  I've seen Noel and Smart play.  I don't think Smart takes a backseat to Noel on D whatsoever. 

As for a premium position, that may be arguable as well.  There's a lot more PGs (and SG's) that are big scorers in this league --> moreso than centers.  having a guard that can play the level of D that Smart plays is a major asset.  how many centers in this league are there that are really top offensive players -- particularly ones that would be shut down by a beanpole like Noel that doesn't rebound particularly well for a center?

Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #51 on: December 28, 2015, 08:38:57 AM »

Offline moiso

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I don't see why the Sixers wouldn't take Smart for Noel. He gives them what they need while a pack is just a crapshoot.
In case I wasn't clear, I'm pretty sure that any discussion about Nerlens Noel starts with Marcus Smart AND one of the Brooklyn picks. Folks around here massively overvalue Smart.

And other folks massively overvalue Noel.  Philly would ask for something like the Nets pick this year for Noel, so that is what it would take to get him.  But no team would give up anything close to that.

I'm sure Ainge and every other GM in the league likes Noel's potential but they also recognize in his regression this year that he's a role player at best.

Mike
I don't think a Brooklyn pick would be required, but do think it would take Smart plus other things.  I don't think those other things need to be super high value assets, but I just don't see Smart as enough. 

So probably something like Noel + 2nd round pick for Smart + Zeller... something along those lines is how you'd value it?
No, I don't see them sending away a draft pick or having a need for Zeller.  Noel for Smart and KO seems to be in the range.
So now you're throwing in Olynyk? I believe strongly that of all the Cs on rookie contracts, KO is the least likely to be traded. Ainge absolutely loves him.

Meanwhile, you trade for a guy like Noel because he fits with Kelly.
He fits with Sullinger.

I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion, but I'm also not sure how you figured there's "no need for Zeller" but they'd add Olynyk instead. If you think the Cs (or the NBA) values Zeller over Olynyk, I'd say it's fair to question your judgement.
the Sixers have no need for Zeller.  I thought that was pretty obvious

So you fugured just toss them someone of far greater value?
yeah, Noel is more valuable than Smart.  That was the point.

I love Noel but why does everyone come to this conclusion so easily? Noel plays for a terrible team that is screaming for offence, even bad offence and so far all Noel has mustered is 9.9 ppg. in 30 min career. A half decent play should be averaging close to 15 ppg and his ft% is 0.60.

While Smart is technically on a win now team where he must play a restricted offensive role and has been hampered with injuries his first 2 years and still has 8 ppg. in 27 min and people on here talk about how terrible Smart's offence is on here.

So how can it be so cut and dry that Nerlens is a better player?
He is a better defender and plays at a premium position.  It isn't that difficult to understand.
Gotta agree with slamtheking and Yb2's rebuttals to this statement.  In addition to their points Smart seems to be the tougher competitor with much better leadership potential.

Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #52 on: December 28, 2015, 08:45:37 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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I believe Noel will exit Philly at end of his rookie contract

Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #53 on: December 28, 2015, 08:54:25 AM »

Offline Moranis

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You can compare Smarts defence to ABs or TAs or even Kawahis, but you can't compare it to Noel. They simply do not play the same position and not against the same opposition. Their defences are bound to be different because of need of the position and type of opposition.
The only thing you can argue is that Noel is a C, something Boston is looking for.
But just ask your self this question. when was the last time a defensive center with terrible O able to lift a team to a championship?
when was the last time a defensive PG with terrible O was able to lift a team to a championship?  You mean that has never happened.  Hmm.  However, there are plenty of defensive oriented centers that have been starters on championship teams (and Wallace was in fact his teams best player). 

Noel is a more impactful defender than Smart.  We've already seen Noel lift an otherwise terrible team to a credible defense when he carried Philly at the end of last year.  His defensive numbers as a rookie were basically unmatched in the history of the game. 
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Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #54 on: December 28, 2015, 09:32:31 AM »

Offline BballTim

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You can compare Smarts defence to ABs or TAs or even Kawahis, but you can't compare it to Noel. They simply do not play the same position and not against the same opposition. Their defences are bound to be different because of need of the position and type of opposition.
The only thing you can argue is that Noel is a C, something Boston is looking for.
But just ask your self this question. when was the last time a defensive center with terrible O able to lift a team to a championship?
when was the last time a defensive PG with terrible O was able to lift a team to a championship?  You mean that has never happened.  Hmm.  However, there are plenty of defensive oriented centers that have been starters on championship teams (and Wallace was in fact his teams best player). 

  You don't see how comparing the number of defensive point guards who lifted their teams to titles to the number of defensive centers who were simply starters on title teams might skew the numbers one way or the other, do you?

Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #55 on: December 28, 2015, 09:51:43 AM »

Offline Moranis

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You can compare Smarts defence to ABs or TAs or even Kawahis, but you can't compare it to Noel. They simply do not play the same position and not against the same opposition. Their defences are bound to be different because of need of the position and type of opposition.
The only thing you can argue is that Noel is a C, something Boston is looking for.
But just ask your self this question. when was the last time a defensive center with terrible O able to lift a team to a championship?
when was the last time a defensive PG with terrible O was able to lift a team to a championship?  You mean that has never happened.  Hmm.  However, there are plenty of defensive oriented centers that have been starters on championship teams (and Wallace was in fact his teams best player). 

  You don't see how comparing the number of defensive point guards who lifted their teams to titles to the number of defensive centers who were simply starters on title teams might skew the numbers one way or the other, do you?
I gave you one, Ben Wallace.  You could argue Tyson Chandler as well (obviously Dirk was the main guy there, but they don't win the title without Chandler).  Those are in the last 15 years.  I'm still waiting for that PG. 
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Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #56 on: December 28, 2015, 10:23:48 AM »

Offline BballTim

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You can compare Smarts defence to ABs or TAs or even Kawahis, but you can't compare it to Noel. They simply do not play the same position and not against the same opposition. Their defences are bound to be different because of need of the position and type of opposition.
The only thing you can argue is that Noel is a C, something Boston is looking for.
But just ask your self this question. when was the last time a defensive center with terrible O able to lift a team to a championship?
when was the last time a defensive PG with terrible O was able to lift a team to a championship?  You mean that has never happened.  Hmm.  However, there are plenty of defensive oriented centers that have been starters on championship teams (and Wallace was in fact his teams best player). 

  You don't see how comparing the number of defensive point guards who lifted their teams to titles to the number of defensive centers who were simply starters on title teams might skew the numbers one way or the other, do you?
I gave you one, Ben Wallace.  You could argue Tyson Chandler as well (obviously Dirk was the main guy there, but they don't win the title without Chandler).  Those are in the last 15 years.  I'm still waiting for that PG.

  Apparently you were confused by my question. Even with that, I'd say that the fact that you could only name one defensive center in the last 45 years that was even arguably the best player on a title team does a lot more to hurt your argument than to help it.

Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #57 on: December 28, 2015, 10:52:58 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Here is my comparison of Smart and Noel using On/Off stats, they might not be perfect but they are good general judge of how a player impacts the game on offense and defense.

This year Noel's team is 3.3 points per 100 possession better defensively when Noel is on the court (11.5 per 100 possessions better offensively when he is off the court). Overall this year his net on/off  (net rating on the court - net rating off the court) is -7. Last year his team was 4 points per 100 possession better on defense with him on the court with a net rating of +.1. Noel's RPM last year was -1.5. Noel's RPM this year is -3.75 (which was 96th among PFs)

The Celtics are 1.9 points per 100 possession better defensively when Smart is on the court with an net on/off of -.4. Last year the Celtics were 1.5 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Smart on the court with a 5.2 net on/off. Last year Smart had a +2.2 RPM.

These numbers tell a story of Noel being the more impactful player but Smart being the more impactful. Noel's defensive numbers are better but the level to which the offense deteriorates when he is in the game takes away from that.

Not only do I not think Smart is terrible on offense. I think how he impacted the offense last year showed glimpses of how he can be very good offensively. In the end I'm not giving up Smart or the Brooklyn pick in a Noel deal, if Philly is insisting on one of those then I think there will be better avenues towards improving in the future.


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Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #58 on: December 28, 2015, 11:12:48 AM »

Offline Moranis

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You can compare Smarts defence to ABs or TAs or even Kawahis, but you can't compare it to Noel. They simply do not play the same position and not against the same opposition. Their defences are bound to be different because of need of the position and type of opposition.
The only thing you can argue is that Noel is a C, something Boston is looking for.
But just ask your self this question. when was the last time a defensive center with terrible O able to lift a team to a championship?
when was the last time a defensive PG with terrible O was able to lift a team to a championship?  You mean that has never happened.  Hmm.  However, there are plenty of defensive oriented centers that have been starters on championship teams (and Wallace was in fact his teams best player). 

  You don't see how comparing the number of defensive point guards who lifted their teams to titles to the number of defensive centers who were simply starters on title teams might skew the numbers one way or the other, do you?
I gave you one, Ben Wallace.  You could argue Tyson Chandler as well (obviously Dirk was the main guy there, but they don't win the title without Chandler).  Those are in the last 15 years.  I'm still waiting for that PG.

  Apparently you were confused by my question. Even with that, I'd say that the fact that you could only name one defensive center in the last 45 years that was even arguably the best player on a title team does a lot more to hurt your argument than to help it.
I wasn't confused at all and you still haven't answered my bolded question.  Also, lifting a team to a title, doesn't imply best player.  The original question, I answered, BTW, was when was the last time a defensive center with terrible O able to lift a team to a championship?  The Mavs don't win the title without Tyson Chandler, who is a defensive center without much offense.  Does that mean Chandler lifted a team to a championship?  Ben Wallace is clear.  I believe Chandler fits that bill.  I've still yet to hear a PG that fits that bill.  You see the original premise was a flawed shot at Noel, without realizing it affects Smart a great deal more.
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Re: What would it take to get Nerlens Noel?
« Reply #59 on: December 28, 2015, 11:22:14 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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You can compare Smarts defence to ABs or TAs or even Kawahis, but you can't compare it to Noel. They simply do not play the same position and not against the same opposition. Their defences are bound to be different because of need of the position and type of opposition.
The only thing you can argue is that Noel is a C, something Boston is looking for.
But just ask your self this question. when was the last time a defensive center with terrible O able to lift a team to a championship?
when was the last time a defensive PG with terrible O was able to lift a team to a championship?  You mean that has never happened.  Hmm.  However, there are plenty of defensive oriented centers that have been starters on championship teams (and Wallace was in fact his teams best player). 

  You don't see how comparing the number of defensive point guards who lifted their teams to titles to the number of defensive centers who were simply starters on title teams might skew the numbers one way or the other, do you?
I gave you one, Ben Wallace.  You could argue Tyson Chandler as well (obviously Dirk was the main guy there, but they don't win the title without Chandler).  Those are in the last 15 years.  I'm still waiting for that PG.

  Apparently you were confused by my question. Even with that, I'd say that the fact that you could only name one defensive center in the last 45 years that was even arguably the best player on a title team does a lot more to hurt your argument than to help it.
I wasn't confused at all and you still haven't answered my bolded question.  Also, lifting a team to a title, doesn't imply best player.  The original question, I answered, BTW, was when was the last time a defensive center with terrible O able to lift a team to a championship?  The Mavs don't win the title without Tyson Chandler, who is a defensive center without much offense.  Does that mean Chandler lifted a team to a championship?  Ben Wallace is clear.  I believe Chandler fits that bill.  I've still yet to hear a PG that fits that bill.  You see the original premise was a flawed shot at Noel, without realizing it affects Smart a great deal more.
I don't like this question because it takes Smart being a terrible offensive player going forward as a given. It's a lot more likely Smart ends up being a good offensive player than that Noel does.
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