Author Topic: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere  (Read 3610 times)

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Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2015, 01:45:12 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Sully is an undersized center.  He's a very productive rebounder.  Good passer.  Not a very good finisher.  Solid mid-range shooter.  Poor shooter from deep.


Looking at that skillset, combined with his injury issues, I would tend to agree that he won't go anywhere, if only because, like Tristan Thompson, he will have a hard time finding anybody to offer him a big deal.

Sully is like Tristan Thompson with a better mid-range shot but much less athleticism and overall interior presence.
we may need to tweak that narrative on sully's outside shooting, at least a bit for this season.

his three point shooting is at 31.4%, not good, but above "poor."

from the paint to the 3 point line he shoots 45.7%, not bad.

inside the paint he shoots only 43.3%.

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/1464/jared-sullinger/shotchart/

the rest of the critique seems to be spot on.

31.4% is below the break-even point, which I think is fair to call poor.  Sully has streaks where he shoots well from three, but it never sustains. 

The numbers you posted seem to back up my first post. 

I think that site is missing some shot data, at least 1 shot attempt/make... which puts his percentage at 33.3%, which is above the break-even point.

Anyways, he's hanging around it's 5-6 points higher than the previous 2 years respectively, when he began incorporating the shot into his NBA game.

So I do think "poor" shooter is misplaced at the moment.

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #16 on: November 30, 2015, 02:07:46 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Sully is an undersized center.  He's a very productive rebounder.  Good passer.  Not a very good finisher.  Solid mid-range shooter.  Poor shooter from deep.


Looking at that skillset, combined with his injury issues, I would tend to agree that he won't go anywhere, if only because, like Tristan Thompson, he will have a hard time finding anybody to offer him a big deal.

Sully is like Tristan Thompson with a better mid-range shot but much less athleticism and overall interior presence.
we may need to tweak that narrative on sully's outside shooting, at least a bit for this season.

his three point shooting is at 31.4%, not good, but above "poor."

from the paint to the 3 point line he shoots 45.7%, not bad.

inside the paint he shoots only 43.3%.

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/1464/jared-sullinger/shotchart/

the rest of the critique seems to be spot on.

31.4% is below the break-even point, which I think is fair to call poor.  Sully has streaks where he shoots well from three, but it never sustains. 

The numbers you posted seem to back up my first post. 

I think that site is missing some shot data, at least 1 shot attempt/make... which puts his percentage at 33.3%, which is above the break-even point.

Anyways, he's hanging around it's 5-6 points higher than the previous 2 years respectively, when he began incorporating the shot into his NBA game.

So I do think "poor" shooter is misplaced at the moment.

You're correct, basketball-reference has Sully at 33% right now.

Sully is a career 28% shooter from deep, though, with a pretty significant sample size at this point.

He's had months where he's shot better -- he started this season red hot from outside -- but he never maintains it.  This season, that hot start has cooled off considerably, which is why he's now down to 33%, and trending further downward.

I've always defended Brad for encouraging Sully to shoot from deep, because the reasoning behind it seems pretty obvious -- Sullinger will be a much more dangerous player if he can stretch the defense from deep.  His solid mid-range shooting has provided hope for him eventually becoming a solid shooter from the perimeter, as well.

By now, I think it might be time to consider shelving that aspect of his game, at least until he can spend an off-season or two doing nothing but working on his shooting (instead of rehabbing from weight related injuries).
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #17 on: November 30, 2015, 02:38:02 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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Sullinger will not be moved. This prediction of mine has gained a bit of momentum as I've made it a couple of times now, but I think unless Simmons falls into Boston's lap, Danny will do what he can to secure Jaylen Brown or Skal Labissiere. If he secures the former, he'll go after guys like Hassan Whiteside in free agency or Nerlens Noel through trade. If he secures the latter, he'll go after guys like Nic Batum in free agency or Harrison Barnes through trade. Sullinger's success at center gives Danny another full plate of options.

IT/Rozier
Smart/Bradley
Jaylen Brown/Crowder/Hunter
Nerlens Noel/Olynyk/Mickey
Sullinger/[Olynyk]

IT/Rozier
Smart/Bradley/Hunter
Batum/Crowder
Labissiere/Olynyk/Mickey
Sullinger/[Olynyk]

Rozier and Hunter could become good problems if they continue their emergence as legitimate players midseason. Could give us unmatchable managerial versatility in the DeMarcus Cousins race. If we offer:

Amir (non-guaranteed)
Rozier or Hunter
Jerebko (non-guaranteed)
2016 BKN 1
less favorable of BOS/MIN/DAL 2016 1sts

for

Cousins
unwanted salary (could be up to about $4m, off the top of my head)

Then sign Batum, Barnes (would absolutely have to be a S&T; percentage of him coming here? about 2%), or dare I say... Durant?

IT/Rozier (if Hunter is traded)
Smart/Bradley
Batum/Crowder
Cousins/Olynyk/Jordan Mickey
Sullinger/[Olynyk]

or...

IT/[Smart]
Smart/Bradley/Hunter (if Rozier is traded)
Durant/Crowder
Cousins/Olynyk/Jordan Mickey
Sullinger/[Olynyk]

plus still tons of picks to round out the roster, and James Young is still a thing too. I'm starting to feel bad for Evan Turner. He's doing everything in his power to remain a Celtic. It is not enough to match the power of the dollar and the power of the market.

Lastly, just a random thought... last year we wanted Cousins without Smart. Now we have been lucky enough to watch the implosion of the Brooklyn Nets and whine that we want to keep Smart and the 2016 Brooklyn 1st. What are we, Laker fans, accustomed to trading a single Olynyk or Terry Rozier for a legit superstar and then evading karma on our way to multiple championships? If we want a player like Cousins, we'll have to pony up. I think we'll only have to give up one of our two golden assets. Also consider that the future Brooklyn picks could also become golden assets. The Celtics future is bright, even though we'll lose a few of our favorite toys along the way.


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Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #18 on: November 30, 2015, 03:54:22 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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Yeah exactly... dude is untouchable...  If I'm Ainge, I wouldn't sell him for anything less than an elite SF or a top 5 draft pick...

Think they bought it?

I hope you're joking. No one would trade that much for any player on the Celtics, lol.

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #19 on: November 30, 2015, 05:13:59 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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Yeah exactly... dude is untouchable...  If I'm Ainge, I wouldn't sell him for anything less than an elite SF or a top 5 draft pick...

Think they bought it?

He's not untouchable. That would be Kelly Olynyk. Trade talk is all time wasting speculation. We're currently going to war with Sully and he's been our best player so far. He's got long arms or something's going on. He was going to be a top five pick if he didn't need back surgery. Got any Embiid updates?

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #20 on: November 30, 2015, 05:25:05 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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Agreed. Ainge hates to deal when he cannot get value and do not see any GM giving value for Sully when his contract is set to expire in 7 months time and is due a major payday.
Sully is the rich man's Big Baby. He is playing well and hopefully is finally getting into shape. That's his job. I think we ended up resigning Big Baby when there was similar speculation.

Until Smart gets healthy and puts on a clinic, Sully has a great opportunity to cement a Rondo type deal. I remember Ainge didn't give Rondo the max. It was around 11 million. We'll see how the season plays out. Sullinger's immediate development is a developing story. Knock on wood it continues. It's impressive.

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #21 on: November 30, 2015, 05:27:37 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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What are we, Laker fans, accustomed to trading a single Olynyk or Terry Rozier for a legit superstar and then evading karma on our way to multiple championships? If we want a player like Cousins, we'll have to pony up. I think we'll only have to give up one of our two golden assets.

I think the feeling is that trading our major assets for Cousins will only serve to put us in a similar position as Sacramento is now -- with Cousins as the only really notable player, and no obvious way of securing additional great players to place alongside him.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2015, 05:32:42 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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31.4% is below the break-even point, which I think is fair to call poor.  Sully has streaks where he shoots well from three, but it never sustains. 

The numbers you posted seem to back up my first post.
Sully is an Antoine Walker styled three point shooter until proven otherwise. I do think he can be automatic if he goes into KG styled outside shooting mode. Everything is dependent on his getting into shape.

As constructed, Amir Johnson, Kelly and Zeller are the three centers. I know Sully covers them. The league is evolving.

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #23 on: November 30, 2015, 05:42:17 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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31.4% is below the break-even point, which I think is fair to call poor.  Sully has streaks where he shoots well from three, but it never sustains. 

The numbers you posted seem to back up my first post.
Sully is an Antoine Walker styled three point shooter until proven otherwise. I do think he can be automatic if he goes into KG styled outside shooting mode. Everything is dependent on his getting into shape.

As constructed, Amir Johnson, Kelly and Zeller are the three centers. I know Sully covers them. The league is evolving.

I think the better comparison for Sully's shot selection is Sheed Wallace, though Sully is obviously a much better (and more determined) rebounder.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #24 on: November 30, 2015, 05:45:14 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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Sullinger could give you Brandon Bass type efficiency for outside shooting. Bradley is another huge story. Thomas has great potential. There's even a bit of Fab Melo inspired drama with James Young. This has been the best Celtics year to watch imho, since the Big Baby season when he ran over a kid in the playoffs.

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #25 on: November 30, 2015, 05:48:24 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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What are we, Laker fans, accustomed to trading a single Olynyk or Terry Rozier for a legit superstar and then evading karma on our way to multiple championships? If we want a player like Cousins, we'll have to pony up. I think we'll only have to give up one of our two golden assets.

I think the feeling is that trading our major assets for Cousins will only serve to put us in a similar position as Sacramento is now -- with Cousins as the only really notable player, and no obvious way of securing additional great players to place alongside him.

That feeling is entirely ignorant of the managerial differences between Sacramento and Boston.


Draft: 8 first rounders in next 5 years.

Cap space: $24 mil.

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Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #26 on: November 30, 2015, 05:50:13 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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31.4% is below the break-even point, which I think is fair to call poor.  Sully has streaks where he shoots well from three, but it never sustains. 

The numbers you posted seem to back up my first post.
Sully is an Antoine Walker styled three point shooter until proven otherwise. I do think he can be automatic if he goes into KG styled outside shooting mode. Everything is dependent on his getting into shape.

As constructed, Amir Johnson, Kelly and Zeller are the three centers. I know Sully covers them. The league is evolving.

I think the better comparison for Sully's shot selection is Sheed Wallace, though Sully is obviously a much better (and more determined) rebounder.

I could personally do with less threes. Captain Obvious just whispered into my ear that Bradley has the green light.

Evan Turner should be shut off. No threes for him. Amir Johnson should never take more than the random, rare three. I don't care what his stats were. Maybe he will hit a hot streak. Isaiah Thomas should try to improve his outside shot, though he is very close to being a great player. He has a chance to become a good defender. That is another development to watch.

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #27 on: November 30, 2015, 06:03:55 PM »

Offline Rosco917

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I like what Sully has done so far, but I think his days are numbered as a Celtic.

He's a nice backup center, or even a low minute starter on a team that has a stud at the 4. But honestly, he's still not the answer at 4 or 5 on a real contender.

If the C's decided to sign him to team friendly contract, as a backup center/PF, and relieve ourselves of Zeller, or KO, I won't be unhappy.   

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #28 on: November 30, 2015, 06:11:01 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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31.4% is below the break-even point, which I think is fair to call poor.  Sully has streaks where he shoots well from three, but it never sustains. 

The numbers you posted seem to back up my first post.

I actually don't think it is quite that simple (I am not picking a fight with PhoSita, just usinig his post as an example).  33% for 3-Point shots is the "break even point" if the team is shooting exactly 50% for all 2-Point shots but most teams shoot below that.  The league average ranges from a low of 43.6% (CHI) to a high of 52.5% (LAC) based on only 2-Point shots taken.  Boston comes in at 48.3%

Sullinger's 31.4% would be break even for a team shooting 47.1% for 2-Point shots and is not far off of where he would need to be for a team that hits 48.3% of 2-Point shots.

I think the key for him with 3-Point shots (or any shot really) is to make sure he is taking good shots at good times.  For example, he should not be taking 3s early in the shot clock unless he is fully set a uncontested.  In that case (set and uncontested), I think it is a good shot that he might hit 35% to 40% of the time.  A contested shot late in the shot clock might be OK too.  It just all depends.

I think he shoots it well enough that it is a weapon he should use in the right circumstances.  As he gains experience, he should get better at picking those moments.  He should take the 3 just often enough that the defender needs to be thinking about it and it will help open up other things for him and the team.

Re: My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere
« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2015, 06:43:50 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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31.4% is below the break-even point, which I think is fair to call poor.  Sully has streaks where he shoots well from three, but it never sustains. 

The numbers you posted seem to back up my first post.

I actually don't think it is quite that simple (I am not picking a fight with PhoSita, just usinig his post as an example).  33% for 3-Point shots is the "break even point" if the team is shooting exactly 50% for all 2-Point shots but most teams shoot below that.  The league average ranges from a low of 43.6% (CHI) to a high of 52.5% (LAC) based on only 2-Point shots taken.  Boston comes in at 48.3%

Fair point.  When I say break-even, I am referring to each shot being worth 1 point.  It's true that shooting lower than that is still worth a similar amount to shooting below 50% on two point attempts.

Still, I'm not a fan of guys taking a large number of shots from deep while hitting such a low percentage unless there's reason to believe they'll improve, or the mere threat of the three point shot is crucial to the player's success in other areas.

With Sullinger, I think we're reaching the point where neither of those things seems to be true.  I'm hopeful he can be a quality three point shooter on limited attempts eventually, but taking 2-4 shots from deep a game just doesn't seem like a good look for him right now.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain