My prediction: Sullinger's not going anywhere

[CelticPride2016]

I can admit when I'm wrong. I thought Sully was incurably overweight and that no way should anyone realistically expect more than five quality seasons left in him.

I now think he was simply bloated the other day and is not slipping into old eating habits.

I said don't let the door hit you on the way out, Sully. I recant that statement. He looks like he is finally chopping away at the tire around his gut.

I think he will improve his body with toning. Olynyk has improved in that area. Sully now seems to realize the lesson of Big Baby. He is the Avery Bradley of PF's. Stevens can pencil them in as starters and he has no worries.

I also want to recant on Isaiah Thomas. He is working hard on defense and is acting at times like Pressey stealing balls and being an unexpected menace on defense. He is learning how to not be a ball hog. He is another one Brad can rely on.

Our team is very good. There will probably still be some head scratcher games. But I think those will be few.

With this Orlando game, it is obvious we are better. We might not win, but you can't win them all.

Sully will get Rondo money with added in inflation. I guess that is $14 million. Bradley is definitely the current Rondo value contract. For all his flaws, Rondo was a top NBA pg at a discount.

Sully, if he loses weight, the water bloating, and keeps at it, he will become amazing. We knew this when he was drafted that he had this kind of ceiling. He would have been top five if he didn't have the bad back. Re-sign him if all goes well by the end of year for conditioning to four years 14 million 56 million. He has to prove he can play a consistent 35-40 minutes a game if he wants to get paid big big money.

[LarBrd33]

Yeah exactly... dude is untouchable...  If I'm Ainge, I wouldn't sell him for anything less than an elite SF or a top 5 draft pick...

Think they bought it?

[dreamgreen]

I disagree, his days here are numbered.

[Who]

Agreed. Ainge hates to deal when he cannot get value and do not see any GM giving value for Sully when his contract is set to expire in 7 months time and is due a major payday. I think Ainge will keep Sully through the end of season and re-sign Sully in the summer if Sully continues his good play. Then look to deal Sully somewhere further down in the line.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Sully is playing harder than ever before--Not Pacing himself---in his own words...I hope we re-sign THIS Sully...but I'm afraid of this just being a contract year.

[PhoSita]

Sully is an undersized center.  He's a very productive rebounder.  Good passer.  Not a very good finisher.  Solid mid-range shooter.  Poor shooter from deep.


Looking at that skillset, combined with his injury issues, I would tend to agree that he won't go anywhere, if only because, like Tristan Thompson, he will have a hard time finding anybody to offer him a big deal.

Sully is like Tristan Thompson with a better mid-range shot but much less athleticism and overall interior presence.

[KeepRondo]

Terrible game plan having Sully post up against the Magic bigs. He should had been facing up from 15 feet out and taking advantage of how slow those guys are.

[KeepRondo]

Sully is an undersized center.  He's a very productive rebounder.  Good passer.  Not a very good finisher.  Solid mid-range shooter.  Poor shooter from deep.


Looking at that skillset, combined with his injury issues, I would tend to agree that he won't go anywhere, if only because, like Tristan Thompson, he will have a hard time finding anybody to offer him a big deal.

Sully is like Tristan Thompson with a better mid-range shot but much less athleticism and overall interior presence.

Good point on his mid range game. Brad should stop having Sully trailing to the three and get inside for some long twos. He's a good shooter from mid range to long twos. Screw analytics. It's putting Sully outside his game where he can do some damage. 

[oldtype]

Saw Sully rebounding alot again today so I went into ESPN to check his season averages (I try not to do this for most of the year because it makes me super obsessive/compulsive.)

He's on 11/9.4/2.5 while only play 24.9 ****g minutes a game. If this is sustainable or - god forbid - project-able to 30+ minutes a game, then somebody is offering this guy a max this offseason. I don't know if I want that to be us, but he's getting it from somebody.

[hwangjini_1]

Sully is an undersized center.  He's a very productive rebounder.  Good passer.  Not a very good finisher.  Solid mid-range shooter.  Poor shooter from deep.


Looking at that skillset, combined with his injury issues, I would tend to agree that he won't go anywhere, if only because, like Tristan Thompson, he will have a hard time finding anybody to offer him a big deal.

Sully is like Tristan Thompson with a better mid-range shot but much less athleticism and overall interior presence.

we may need to tweak that narrative on sully's outside shooting, at least a bit for this season.

his three point shooting is at 31.4%, not good, but above "poor."

from the paint to the 3 point line he shoots 45.7%, not bad.

inside the paint he shoots only 43.3%.

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/1464/jared-sullinger/shotchart/

the rest of the critique seems to be spot on.

[chambers]

Terrible game plan having Sully post up against the Magic bigs. He should had been facing up from 15 feet out and taking advantage of how slow those guys are.

The point of Sully posting them up is that Vucevic is a poor defender and Sully can take him 1v1 or draw a foul as a last resort, but the main reason they post Sully up is because the Magic love to help in the post given Vucevic's poor post D (as with every other position within 15 feet), so he drags in the help defender and kicks out, or dishes to a cutter like AB or Turner.

But yeah, they aren't trying to score 1v1 with Sully, just draw defenders away from the perimeter.
eg:
Post up Sully. He backs down. Help defender comes. He kicks out to Crowder. If Crowder doesn't have an open shot, he swings to Bradley in right corner (favorite spot from 3), if Bradley isn't open he swings to Amir, who swings to IT in the left corner (favorite spot from 3).
If IT can't get shot off, he penetrates and looks for Crowder or Bradley who are waiting at the top for a dish.

Sully's post ups are just another form of penetration. You'll see this vs longer/length teams with good help defense where dribble drive & dishes by Isaiah and Turner are harder to get open looks with.

The problem with this play is that our only good 3 point shooters are IT and Bradley lol.

[KeepRondo]

Terrible game plan having Sully post up against the Magic bigs. He should had been facing up from 15 feet out and taking advantage of how slow those guys are.

The point of Sully posting them up is that Vucevic is a poor defender and Sully can take him 1v1 or draw a foul as a last resort, but the main reason they post Sully up is because the Magic love to help in the post given Vucevic's poor post D (as with every other position within 15 feet), so he drags in the help defender and kicks out, or dishes to a cutter like AB or Turner.

But yeah, they aren't trying to score 1v1 with Sully, just draw defenders away from the perimeter.
eg:
Post up Sully. He backs down. Help defender comes. He kicks out to Crowder. If Crowder doesn't have an open shot, he swings to Bradley in right corner (favorite spot from 3), if Bradley isn't open he swings to Amir, who swings to IT in the left corner (favorite spot from 3).
If IT can't get shot off, he penetrates and looks for Crowder or Bradley who are waiting at the top for a dish.

Sully's post ups are just another form of penetration. You'll see this vs longer/length teams with good help defense where dribble drive & dishes by Isaiah and Turner are harder to get open looks with.

The problem with this play is that our only good 3 point shooters are IT and Bradley lol.

ummmm yeah that clearly was not what was happening there. Sully was looking to score and no double was needed. Their bigs had the strength and size to stop him right their. The advantage he had was actually being slightly faster and his handle. He should had been facing up on these guys.

[Tr1boy]

terrible game. Trade him

KO also playing pretty crappy as of late

[Greyman]

I like what Sully is doing most games. He is good enough to be a starter in a contending team or what we have plus two significant additions. Amir and Lee, while playing well at times, have limited long term appeal and KO and TZ aren't as good.

In the current situation, keep him.

[PhoSita]

Sully is an undersized center.  He's a very productive rebounder.  Good passer.  Not a very good finisher.  Solid mid-range shooter.  Poor shooter from deep.


Looking at that skillset, combined with his injury issues, I would tend to agree that he won't go anywhere, if only because, like Tristan Thompson, he will have a hard time finding anybody to offer him a big deal.

Sully is like Tristan Thompson with a better mid-range shot but much less athleticism and overall interior presence.

we may need to tweak that narrative on sully's outside shooting, at least a bit for this season.

his three point shooting is at 31.4%, not good, but above "poor."

from the paint to the 3 point line he shoots 45.7%, not bad.

inside the paint he shoots only 43.3%.

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/1464/jared-sullinger/shotchart/

the rest of the critique seems to be spot on.

31.4% is below the break-even point, which I think is fair to call poor.  Sully has streaks where he shoots well from three, but it never sustains. 

The numbers you posted seem to back up my first post.