Author Topic: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think  (Read 12721 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« on: November 27, 2015, 01:27:38 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6043
  • Tommy Points: 766
Of all players below 6'4'', Thomas is above average in his one-one-one defense. Players shooting against him average .9% higher than their normal shooting percentage.

There are many players worse than Thomas, but notable starters and sixth men include: Jason Terry, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Kemba Walker, Lou Williams, Mo Williams, Dennis Schoeder, Ty Lawson, Chris Paul, Jeff Teague, Patty Mills, Jeremy Lin, Brandon Knight, Mike Conley, Trey Burke, Ish Smith, Cory Joseph, and Monte Ellis.

I understand that some of those players have to guard the other team's best guard, while Thomas does not, but many of them do not have to guard the other team's best guard. Thomas does often switch onto the other team's best guard. He is right around the middle of the pack as far as the other players normal shooting percentage (meaning he is guarding players who shoot a good percentage, not just the worst shooter on the other team).

He is below average in the number of shots that his offensive player shoots per game (6.7). That is not that much. He is not being taken advantage of nearly as much as Celtic fans would say. Notable players who have offensive players shoot on them more than Thomas with the offensive player shooting better against them than Thomas are: Kemba Walker, Rajon Rondo, Ty Lawson, Mike Conley, TJ McConnell, Darren Collison, Monte Ellis, Mo Williams, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Jeremy Lin, Brandon Knight, Cory Joseph, Jeff Teague, and Lou Williams (with Dennis Scroeder right after Thomas even though he has less MPG).

His one-on-one defense is better than people think. He forces offensive players to shoot -.1% in shots over 15 feet, where he forces almost 4 shots a game. Players only 2 shots inside 10 feet and 1 shot within 6 feet against him, but they shoot a blistering +10% and +11% against him over their normal percentage. Clearly they have an advantage over him when they do get inside, but that only happens 2 times a game (not including fouls).

He is weak in team defense. Real Plus-Minus really really does not like his defense, as he ranks 76th out of 83 PGs, but still ahead of Schroder, Collison, Vasquez, and Lillard. He is just behind Jeff Teague, Mo Williams, Jrue Holliday, and Trey Burke. He is also ahead of shooting guards McLemore, Waiters, Louis Williams, Wiggins, and Crawford in the stat.

He is still involved with 5 of the top 6 lineups for defensive rating for the Celtics, who are one of the top 10 defensive teams in the NBA.

He is also involved in 5 of the top 6 lineups for a defensive team that is forcing turnovers and a historic rate. He also averages 1.5 steals a game.

Isaiah Thomas has his weaknesses, but I think Celtic fans who watch him every night over-exaggerate them vastly. He is producing like an All-star and if his own fan base does not get behind him, then he won't be recognized like the All-star he is.

Would I rather have enough talent to be able to move him to the bench. Absolutely. But whether he is on the bench or as a starter, he is and will produce like an All-star. Let's support that instead of over-criticizing his weaknesses.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2015, 01:47:14 PM »

Offline gift

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3979
  • Tommy Points: 290
Interesting post. Thomas is definitely the weak spot defensively at times for the team, and in certain matchups he stands no chance. But I think his deficiencies overall are a little overstated as well.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2015, 01:48:49 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8595
  • Tommy Points: 842
a lot of times mismatches force doubles which affect the whole D
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2015, 02:02:49 PM »

Offline Chris22

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5081
  • Tommy Points: 460
a lot of times mismatches force doubles which affect the whole D

Bingo.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2015, 02:37:04 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 36703
  • Tommy Points: 2951
I luv the guy ....

But face it ......ITs lack of height is liability for the team on Defense.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2015, 02:50:42 PM »

Offline D Dub

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3123
  • Tommy Points: 251
The problem isn't Isaiah's D.    It's that the guy best suited to play alongside him is also really short.   

When your two best players combined height is less than 12 feet, you can only go so far in this league...

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2015, 03:16:41 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6043
  • Tommy Points: 766
a lot of times mismatches force doubles which affect the whole D

I think I represented this well. At the beginning of the post, I talked about individual man-to-man defense, which he is above average at.

At the end, I addressed the stats that speak about his team defense. DRPM does not show him well, but the NBA lineup defensive ratings shows him pretty well, as well as the team force turnover rate while he is on the court.

The team is a top 5-10 defense with him as your starting point guard. That's really, really good. My point is that his team defense is bad, but is still not as bad as people think.

My other point was that he is not as bad as Damian Lillard, Jeff Teague, Dennis Schroder, and others. There are some stats that indicate he is better than Rondo, Holliday, Williams, Knight, and Parker too. These are legit starting point guards, and Thomas is just as good on defense, if not better than some. Maybe we are over-stating the weakness because of his height?

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2015, 03:22:36 PM »

Offline The Oracle

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1197
  • Tommy Points: 597
  There are a ton more factors you are not considering.  The Celtics give up a ton more open jumpers because of the way they have to defend to compensate for Thomas.  Double teams to get the ball out of his man's hands cause problems elsewhere on the floor.  He isn't keeping his man from shooting help defenders are and as a result leaving the rest of the defense scrambling and rotating to compensate.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2015, 03:37:47 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6043
  • Tommy Points: 766
  There are a ton more factors you are not considering.  The Celtics give up a ton more open jumpers because of the way they have to defend to compensate for Thomas.  Double teams to get the ball out of his man's hands cause problems elsewhere on the floor.  He isn't keeping his man from shooting help defenders are and as a result leaving the rest of the defense scrambling and rotating to compensate.

I believe the Defensive Rating with lineups including him would account for that. Those defensive ratings are both good and bad. The problem is that there is no way to verify what you just said, or to verify that it is his fault. Some stats would indicate that some of those are as much Bradley's or Crowder's fault.

Again, not saying he is not a weakness. Just saying that he is not as much of a weakness as people think, and that plenty of teams have a defensive weakness equal to him but still contend.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2015, 03:56:37 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6043
  • Tommy Points: 766
The truth is that the lazy man's way of identifying the strengths and weaknesses in a defense is looking for a players 1) Height for position, and 2) Speed for position.

Many, many NBA scouts have assumed that height and/or speed will equal a good defender (Cory Brewer is just one who comes to mind). While pairing those athletic abilities with defensive IQ can make a great defender, many good athletes have terrible defensive habits that hurt their team (ahem, Rondo).

On the flip, lazy couch coaches see that we have no dominating 7 footer on our roster, and think that our interior defense must be bad, but the stats show that we are top 10 at defending the rim.

Or they see a player that is 6'6'' instead of 6'7'' (Crowder) and assume that is a big matchup nightmare, even though he is the number 1 small forward in DRPM.

Or they assume that because Thomas is 5'9'' he must be a matchup nightmare. He is not good, but he has not been horrible this year. The stats show that his offensive game clearly makes up for any defensive weaknesses he may have.

Also, give me a guy who tries over a guy who doesn't any day of the week. If a guy has enough respect for his team to try on defense, he can be coached into a viable defender (again, looking at you Rondo)

If Brad Stevens thinks Thomas can be played for 30 minutes a night while also wanting (and challenging his team) to become the top defense in the league, then maybe we ought step back and think a bit. Maybe Brad sees a team defensive concept where we can be a top defense with Thomas. Maybe the double team to help Thomas actually plays into out frantic style of defense. Maybe we should appreciate that we have an All-star point guard on a playoff team.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2015, 03:58:23 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
His offense is worse than you think. 

Maybe it evens out.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2015, 04:09:26 PM »

Offline The Oracle

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1197
  • Tommy Points: 597
  There are a ton more factors you are not considering.  The Celtics give up a ton more open jumpers because of the way they have to defend to compensate for Thomas.  Double teams to get the ball out of his man's hands cause problems elsewhere on the floor.  He isn't keeping his man from shooting help defenders are and as a result leaving the rest of the defense scrambling and rotating to compensate.

I believe the Defensive Rating with lineups including him would account for that. Those defensive ratings are both good and bad. The problem is that there is no way to verify what you just said, or to verify that it is his fault. Some stats would indicate that some of those are as much Bradley's or Crowder's fault.

Again, not saying he is not a weakness. Just saying that he is not as much of a weakness as people think, and that plenty of teams have a defensive weakness equal to him but still contend.
Overall so far this year the teams defensive rating with him on the floor is 99.1.  With him off the floor it is 92.8.  Can you imagine how much worse the defensive rating with him on the floor would be if the Celtics didn't do all the things they do to help compensate for him defensively.  Brad Stevens tries everything to hide him, even going so far as to have him defend Chandler Parsons in the Dallas game.  It in no way means he's a net negative though because you can hide him somewhat and he's so valuable offensively that it more than offsets his defensive shortcomings.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2015, 04:23:07 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6043
  • Tommy Points: 766
His offense is worse than you think. 

Maybe it evens out.

Give me one stat other than "five foot nine" that says he is not an Allstar.

He is averaging 21 and 6, one of only six players to do that this year.

On respectable 42%, 34%, and 86%. Numbers that could improve as the season goes (he has had a lot of missed open threes).

He is sixth among pgs in PER.

He is 23rd among pgs in TS%, but he was sixth and ninth the last two years, meaning that he should improve as the season goes. He is also still ahead of Conley, Teague, Holliday, Jackson, Jack, Wall, and Dragic in that area. There are only two players ahead of him in TS% that have a higher usage rate, meaning he is doing a respectable job with this TS% considering his usage rate. As the season goes, other guys get more comfortable and we make a move for another scorer, I expect his efficiency to rise.

He is 7th among point guards in estimate wins added among point guards.

He has the stats. He has the winning team. But he doesn't have the fan base support, and for that reason, he probably won't be an All-star.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2015, 04:28:53 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6043
  • Tommy Points: 766
  There are a ton more factors you are not considering.  The Celtics give up a ton more open jumpers because of the way they have to defend to compensate for Thomas.  Double teams to get the ball out of his man's hands cause problems elsewhere on the floor.  He isn't keeping his man from shooting help defenders are and as a result leaving the rest of the defense scrambling and rotating to compensate.

I believe the Defensive Rating with lineups including him would account for that. Those defensive ratings are both good and bad. The problem is that there is no way to verify what you just said, or to verify that it is his fault. Some stats would indicate that some of those are as much Bradley's or Crowder's fault.

Again, not saying he is not a weakness. Just saying that he is not as much of a weakness as people think, and that plenty of teams have a defensive weakness equal to him but still contend.
Overall so far this year the teams defensive rating with him on the floor is 99.1.  With him off the floor it is 92.8.  Can you imagine how much worse the defensive rating with him on the floor would be if the Celtics didn't do all the things they do to help compensate for him defensively.  Brad Stevens tries everything to hide him, even going so far as to have him defend Chandler Parsons in the Dallas game.  It in no way means he's a net negative though because you can hide him somewhat and he's so valuable offensively that it more than offsets his defensive shortcomings.

Agreed. But again, my point is that he is not as bad as people think, not even near the worse point guard defensively in the league.

And that we should support our All-star point guard.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2015, 04:49:17 PM »

Offline GreenWarrior

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3275
  • Tommy Points: 228
a lot of times mismatches force doubles which affect the whole D

there it is!