Author Topic: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think  (Read 12741 times)

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Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2015, 05:04:47 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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  There are a ton more factors you are not considering.  The Celtics give up a ton more open jumpers because of the way they have to defend to compensate for Thomas.  Double teams to get the ball out of his man's hands cause problems elsewhere on the floor.  He isn't keeping his man from shooting help defenders are and as a result leaving the rest of the defense scrambling and rotating to compensate.

I believe the Defensive Rating with lineups including him would account for that. Those defensive ratings are both good and bad. The problem is that there is no way to verify what you just said, or to verify that it is his fault. Some stats would indicate that some of those are as much Bradley's or Crowder's fault.

Again, not saying he is not a weakness. Just saying that he is not as much of a weakness as people think, and that plenty of teams have a defensive weakness equal to him but still contend.
Overall so far this year the teams defensive rating with him on the floor is 99.1.  With him off the floor it is 92.8.  Can you imagine how much worse the defensive rating with him on the floor would be if the Celtics didn't do all the things they do to help compensate for him defensively.  Brad Stevens tries everything to hide him, even going so far as to have him defend Chandler Parsons in the Dallas game.  It in no way means he's a net negative though because you can hide him somewhat and he's so valuable offensively that it more than offsets his defensive shortcomings.

Oh, and Sullinger and Johnson are both worse at DRTG and Bradley is only .03 better. Maybe not weakspot that many people think he is.

And guess who is worse at DRTG among players shorter than 6'4''? Ty Lawson, Rajon Rondo, Jack, Beverly,  Knight, Conley, Lilllard, Teague, Walker, Bledsoe, Deron Williams, Hill, Lowry, Shroder, and Westbrook.

That's 16-17 starting level point guards who are worse than Thomas at this stat.

Would you just give Knight and Bledsoe the benefit of the doubt?

What about Lillard who consistently posts similar numbers to Thomas?

What about Teague and Shroder, both of whom some Celtics fans would rather have?

What about Conley with his All-defensive center at his back?

What about defensive "forces" like Lowry and Hill?
« Last Edit: November 27, 2015, 05:14:38 PM by DefenseWinsChamps »

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2015, 05:29:16 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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  There are a ton more factors you are not considering.  The Celtics give up a ton more open jumpers because of the way they have to defend to compensate for Thomas.  Double teams to get the ball out of his man's hands cause problems elsewhere on the floor.  He isn't keeping his man from shooting help defenders are and as a result leaving the rest of the defense scrambling and rotating to compensate.

I believe the Defensive Rating with lineups including him would account for that. Those defensive ratings are both good and bad. The problem is that there is no way to verify what you just said, or to verify that it is his fault. Some stats would indicate that some of those are as much Bradley's or Crowder's fault.

Again, not saying he is not a weakness. Just saying that he is not as much of a weakness as people think, and that plenty of teams have a defensive weakness equal to him but still contend.
Overall so far this year the teams defensive rating with him on the floor is 99.1.  With him off the floor it is 92.8.  Can you imagine how much worse the defensive rating with him on the floor would be if the Celtics didn't do all the things they do to help compensate for him defensively.  Brad Stevens tries everything to hide him, even going so far as to have him defend Chandler Parsons in the Dallas game.  It in no way means he's a net negative though because you can hide him somewhat and he's so valuable offensively that it more than offsets his defensive shortcomings.

Oh, and Sullinger and Johnson are both worse at DRTG and Bradley is only .03 better. Maybe not weakspot that many people think he is.

And guess who is worse at DRTG among players shorter than 6'4''? Ty Lawson, Rajon Rondo, Jack, Beverly,  Knight, Conley, Lilllard, Teague, Walker, Bledsoe, Deron Williams, Hill, Lowry, Shroder, and Westbrook.

That's 16-17 starting level point guards who are worse than Thomas at this stat.

Would you just give Knight and Bledsoe the benefit of the doubt?

What about Lillard who consistently posts similar numbers to Thomas?

What about Teague and Shroder, both of whom some Celtics fans would rather have?

What about Conley with his All-defensive center at his back?

What about defensive "forces" like Lowry and Hill?
Defensive rating is not evaluating an individuals defense.  It is evaluating a teams defense or an individuals defense as part of a lineup when he is on the floor.  Many great defenders have poor Def. Rat. purely because everyone they play with sucks(think Anthony Davis right now 104.8).  Just because a given player is part of a great defense doesn't mean that he should be given credit for that rating or visa versa.  It must be looked at subjectively to determine whether or not they are the reason for it or not and in IT's case as much as I like him he is in no way responsible for the good defensive ratings some of his lineups have.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2015, 05:44:56 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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His offense is worse than you think. 

Maybe it evens out.

Give me one stat other than "five foot nine" that says he is not an Allstar.

He is averaging 21 and 6, one of only six players to do that this year.

On respectable 42%, 34%, and 86%. Numbers that could improve as the season goes (he has had a lot of missed open threes).

He is sixth among pgs in PER.

He is 23rd among pgs in TS%, but he was sixth and ninth the last two years, meaning that he should improve as the season goes. He is also still ahead of Conley, Teague, Holliday, Jackson, Jack, Wall, and Dragic in that area. There are only two players ahead of him in TS% that have a higher usage rate, meaning he is doing a respectable job with this TS% considering his usage rate. As the season goes, other guys get more comfortable and we make a move for another scorer, I expect his efficiency to rise.

He is 7th among point guards in estimate wins added among point guards.

He has the stats. He has the winning team. But he doesn't have the fan base support, and for that reason, he probably won't be an All-star.
His usage is pretty high.  He's a borderline top 50 player right now.  42%/34% isn't anything to celebrate.   

I'm not knocking him.  He's our best offensive player.  But I'd say his defense is about as underrated as his offense is overrated.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2015, 06:15:11 PM »

Offline GC003332

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His offense is worse than you think. 

Maybe it evens out.

Give me one stat other than "five foot nine" that says he is not an Allstar.

He is averaging 21 and 6, one of only six players to do that this year.

On respectable 42%, 34%, and 86%. Numbers that could improve as the season goes (he has had a lot of missed open threes).

He is sixth among pgs in PER.

He is 23rd among pgs in TS%, but he was sixth and ninth the last two years, meaning that he should improve as the season goes. He is also still ahead of Conley, Teague, Holliday, Jackson, Jack, Wall, and Dragic in that area. There are only two players ahead of him in TS% that have a higher usage rate, meaning he is doing a respectable job with this TS% considering his usage rate. As the season goes, other guys get more comfortable and we make a move for another scorer, I expect his efficiency to rise.

He is 7th among point guards in estimate wins added among point guards.

He has the stats. He has the winning team. But he doesn't have the fan base support, and for that reason, he probably won't be an All-star.
Unless he gets more votes than Wade, Wall, Lowry etc it will be up to the Coaches to vote him in, all is not lost.I personally don't like his game, but each to their own.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #19 on: November 27, 2015, 06:26:02 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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His offense is worse than you think. 

Maybe it evens out.

Give me one stat other than "five foot nine" that says he is not an Allstar.

He is averaging 21 and 6, one of only six players to do that this year.

On respectable 42%, 34%, and 86%. Numbers that could improve as the season goes (he has had a lot of missed open threes).

He is sixth among pgs in PER.

He is 23rd among pgs in TS%, but he was sixth and ninth the last two years, meaning that he should improve as the season goes. He is also still ahead of Conley, Teague, Holliday, Jackson, Jack, Wall, and Dragic in that area. There are only two players ahead of him in TS% that have a higher usage rate, meaning he is doing a respectable job with this TS% considering his usage rate. As the season goes, other guys get more comfortable and we make a move for another scorer, I expect his efficiency to rise.

He is 7th among point guards in estimate wins added among point guards.

He has the stats. He has the winning team. But he doesn't have the fan base support, and for that reason, he probably won't be an All-star.
His usage is pretty high.  He's a borderline top 50 player right now.  42%/34% isn't anything to celebrate.   

He just brought up Thomas's TS%, which is a better indicator of efficiency than raw field goal percentages.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2015, 08:03:36 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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His offense is worse than you think. 

Maybe it evens out.

Give me one stat other than "five foot nine" that says he is not an Allstar.

He is averaging 21 and 6, one of only six players to do that this year.

On respectable 42%, 34%, and 86%. Numbers that could improve as the season goes (he has had a lot of missed open threes).

He is sixth among pgs in PER.

He is 23rd among pgs in TS%, but he was sixth and ninth the last two years, meaning that he should improve as the season goes. He is also still ahead of Conley, Teague, Holliday, Jackson, Jack, Wall, and Dragic in that area. There are only two players ahead of him in TS% that have a higher usage rate, meaning he is doing a respectable job with this TS% considering his usage rate. As the season goes, other guys get more comfortable and we make a move for another scorer, I expect his efficiency to rise.

He is 7th among point guards in estimate wins added among point guards.

He has the stats. He has the winning team. But he doesn't have the fan base support, and for that reason, he probably won't be an All-star.
His usage is pretty high.  He's a borderline top 50 player right now.  42%/34% isn't anything to celebrate.   

He just brought up Thomas's TS%, which is a better indicator of efficiency than raw field goal percentages.
People LOVE bringing up that stat out of context.  He's 97th in the league in TS%.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2015, 09:38:53 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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  There are a ton more factors you are not considering.  The Celtics give up a ton more open jumpers because of the way they have to defend to compensate for Thomas.  Double teams to get the ball out of his man's hands cause problems elsewhere on the floor.  He isn't keeping his man from shooting help defenders are and as a result leaving the rest of the defense scrambling and rotating to compensate.

I believe the Defensive Rating with lineups including him would account for that. Those defensive ratings are both good and bad. The problem is that there is no way to verify what you just said, or to verify that it is his fault. Some stats would indicate that some of those are as much Bradley's or Crowder's fault.

Again, not saying he is not a weakness. Just saying that he is not as much of a weakness as people think, and that plenty of teams have a defensive weakness equal to him but still contend.
Overall so far this year the teams defensive rating with him on the floor is 99.1.  With him off the floor it is 92.8.  Can you imagine how much worse the defensive rating with him on the floor would be if the Celtics didn't do all the things they do to help compensate for him defensively.  Brad Stevens tries everything to hide him, even going so far as to have him defend Chandler Parsons in the Dallas game.  It in no way means he's a net negative though because you can hide him somewhat and he's so valuable offensively that it more than offsets his defensive shortcomings.

Oh, and Sullinger and Johnson are both worse at DRTG and Bradley is only .03 better. Maybe not weakspot that many people think he is.

And guess who is worse at DRTG among players shorter than 6'4''? Ty Lawson, Rajon Rondo, Jack, Beverly,  Knight, Conley, Lilllard, Teague, Walker, Bledsoe, Deron Williams, Hill, Lowry, Shroder, and Westbrook.

That's 16-17 starting level point guards who are worse than Thomas at this stat.

Would you just give Knight and Bledsoe the benefit of the doubt?

What about Lillard who consistently posts similar numbers to Thomas?

What about Teague and Shroder, both of whom some Celtics fans would rather have?

What about Conley with his All-defensive center at his back?

What about defensive "forces" like Lowry and Hill?
Defensive rating is not evaluating an individuals defense.  It is evaluating a teams defense or an individuals defense as part of a lineup when he is on the floor.  Many great defenders have poor Def. Rat. purely because everyone they play with sucks(think Anthony Davis right now 104.8).  Just because a given player is part of a great defense doesn't mean that he should be given credit for that rating or visa versa.  It must be looked at subjectively to determine whether or not they are the reason for it or not and in IT's case as much as I like him he is in no way responsible for the good defensive ratings some of his lineups have.

First of all, Anthony Davis may be the most overrated defender in the league right now. He has never had a good defensive percentage at the rim, never anchored an above average defense, and never been known as a shut down guy yet. Blocks are there. Ability is there. But he has yet to leverage that into good defense individually or as a team.

Secondly, I know what defensive rating is. My goal in bringing it up is to supplement some stats about his team defense. That stat shows one aspect of his team defense. I understand that does not necessarily mean he is the reason why they are that good, but I also know that that says he may not be the defensive sieve that people make him out to be.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2015, 09:40:47 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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His offense is worse than you think. 

Maybe it evens out.

Give me one stat other than "five foot nine" that says he is not an Allstar.

He is averaging 21 and 6, one of only six players to do that this year.

On respectable 42%, 34%, and 86%. Numbers that could improve as the season goes (he has had a lot of missed open threes).

He is sixth among pgs in PER.

He is 23rd among pgs in TS%, but he was sixth and ninth the last two years, meaning that he should improve as the season goes. He is also still ahead of Conley, Teague, Holliday, Jackson, Jack, Wall, and Dragic in that area. There are only two players ahead of him in TS% that have a higher usage rate, meaning he is doing a respectable job with this TS% considering his usage rate. As the season goes, other guys get more comfortable and we make a move for another scorer, I expect his efficiency to rise.

He is 7th among point guards in estimate wins added among point guards.

He has the stats. He has the winning team. But he doesn't have the fan base support, and for that reason, he probably won't be an All-star.
His usage is pretty high.  He's a borderline top 50 player right now.  42%/34% isn't anything to celebrate.   

He just brought up Thomas's TS%, which is a better indicator of efficiency than raw field goal percentages.
People LOVE bringing up that stat out of context.  He's 97th in the league in TS%.

Don't take me out of context. I brought it up to say two things: 1) It is significantly lower than it has been the last two years, but it is still a respectable percentage considering his usage rate, and 2) To prove that many of the guys people would take over him have a worse true shooting percentage.

Lillard is much worse of a defender by every metric, and less efficient of a scorer by TS%, but most fans would rather have Lillard and think he is an All-star. Conley, Clarkson, Jackson, Teague, Wall, Holliday, Dragic, Rondo, Schroder, Rubio, Rose, Payton, Lawson are all other examples of players with worst TS%.

Take all the metrics together, and it is obvious that he is a top 10 PG in the league right now, not a sixth man. And he deserves to be an All-star if we win at least 40.

Oh, and he deserves to be an All-star if he keeps outplaying Wall, Teague, Lowry, Hill, Ellis, Parker, Jack, and anyone else he plays against.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2015, 09:52:26 PM by DefenseWinsChamps »

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2015, 10:41:04 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Who deserves to be an All-star more at this point:

Wall or Thomas?

Teague or Thomas?

Rose or Thomas?

Jackson or Thomas?

Walker or Thomas?

Dragic or Thomas?

Thomas has better numbers with less talent than all of them. He has led our team to more wins than most of those teams, all with more responsibility on his shoulders.

Stop acting like Lakers' fans watching Celtics' games. Our guy deserves to be an All-star, even though he has some weaknesses to his game. Get behind him. There is no way our little leader with a big heart and a bigger game becomes an All-star without grassroots support.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #24 on: August 12, 2017, 12:22:14 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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No its not unfortunately..

Quote
Was Bradley's defensive RAPM a victim of playing most of his minutes with weak defender Isaiah Thomas? According to NBA.com/Stats, the Celtics did have a slightly better 106.6 defensive rating when Bradley played without Thomas, as compared to 107.9 when they played together. But that discrepancy paled in comparison to the same split for teammate Marcus Smart. Boston gave up only 96.2 points per 100 possessions when Smart played without Thomas, as compared to 111.6 with him. No wonder Smart did have a strong plus-0.5 defensive RPM.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #25 on: August 12, 2017, 01:00:25 PM »

Offline Rosco917

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A totally misleading stat. IT requires more help than any defender in the league, I'm sure at times the switch, or help D does work efficiently, but it's an energy drain on the team in general.

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #26 on: August 12, 2017, 04:13:34 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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IT get himself some new elevator shoes ?  :o

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #27 on: August 12, 2017, 04:25:14 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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A totally misleading stat. IT requires more help than any defender in the league, I'm sure at times the switch, or help D does work efficiently, but it's an energy drain on the team in general.

Yes

And lack of size is only one part of the equation ...

Chris Paul , Kemba Walker are also short pgs but not considered nearly as a liability on the defensive end

Its surprising to see IT4 low steal numbers considering how quick he is

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #28 on: August 12, 2017, 05:00:03 PM »

Offline GetLucky

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This thread is from two years ago

Re: Isaiah Thomas' Defense is Better than You Think
« Reply #29 on: August 12, 2017, 05:27:49 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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How do you know what I think?  Get out of my head, kook!