Poll

Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?

Over .500
2 (6.5%)
Under .500
27 (87.1%)
Right at .500
2 (6.5%)

Total Members Voted: 31

Author Topic: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?  (Read 12030 times)

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Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #60 on: November 27, 2015, 05:05:17 PM »

Offline colincb

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Something I was curious about, but are the 76ers losing money for a few years with this? I know they are the salary cap floor which is a lot of money saved. However, I believe they are last in the league in attendence (and this will only get worse as the season progresses). Furthermore, I would have to believe they are having a hard time selling their high end seats and luxury boxes as well as any team merchandise.

The bigger picture is that the Sixers franchise value has gone up dramatically (as have all the NBA franchises and most sport franchises). Purchased for $287 million in 2011 the Sixers franchise was valued at $700 million by Forbes in 2015.

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #61 on: November 27, 2015, 05:38:34 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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THunder/Sonics won 20 and 23 games during Durant's first two seasons.  Don't underestimate the power of a team that is intentionally trying to lose games.   RIght now Philly has 2 NBA players and a bunch of D-Leaguers.   That should change next season unless all of the following happens to take place:

- Embiid stays injured
- Philly decides to keep trotting out Okafor and Noel together instead of cashing in on one
- Neither Okafor or Noel improves
- Philly drafts an injured player with their top 3 pick
- The lakers keep their top 3 pick
- Saric stays overseas
- None of Philly's players develop into NBA-caliber talent (including guys like Marshall and Wroten who are coming back next week for the first time this eason)
- They draft Euros with their other two 1st rounders and decide to keep them over seas instead of drafting talent or trading them for contributors
- They have something like 30 mil under contract next season with an projected cap of 90 mil... Philly opts to stay 60 million under the cap and refuse to add veterans who can contribute

They do all that, they will probably be in the ditch again. 

Any competent GM can turn this team around before Noel hits free agency.   They are in this situation intentionally.   I know that's a hard concept to grasp, but it is what it is.

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #62 on: November 27, 2015, 08:32:41 PM »

Offline MBunge

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THunder/Sonics won 20 and 23 games during Durant's first two seasons.  Don't underestimate the power of a team that is intentionally trying to lose games.   RIght now Philly has 2 NBA players and a bunch of D-Leaguers.

1.  The Sixers have won 19 and 18 games the past two seasons and are on pace to win even fewer this season.

2.  By Durant's second season, they already had Westbrook.  Durant/Westbrook > Noel/Okafor.

3.  Durant's second season, OKC also had Collison, Jeff Green, Kristic, and Sefalosha.  That means by Durant's second year, they already had 6 of the top 8 rotation players that would make the playoffs.  Philly has one, since even you admit Noel and Okafor can't coexist and we don't know if Embiid is ever going to play.

4.  No free agent is going to have Philly as their #1 choice.  Everyone else is going to have cap space and much more attractive situations.

5.  Even if Philly and LA end with the two worst records in the league, I believe they are statistically most likely to get the 4th and 5th pick in the draft.

6.  What basketball acumen has been demonstrated by the Philly brain trust?  Their lottery picks have been the completely obvious picks anyone would make and they've shown next to nothing when it comes to judging talent when assembling the rest of the roster.  Is there a single piece of evidence they have any idea of how to assemble a winning team?

7.  Now that everyone knows Noel and Okafor can't play together, it hurts Noel's trade value.  No one is giving up a king's ransom for him.

Let's remember that Philly isn't doing this so they can eventually make the Eastern Conference Finals a few times.  The goal is to put together a super team that will win multiple titles.  They are now in the third year of that process and are nowhere near that goal.  And despite your "everything's coming up roses" analysis, there are a whole series of things that have to break exactly right to get Philly anywhere close to that objective.

Mike

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #63 on: November 27, 2015, 09:03:03 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Would be a lot easier if you guys just admitted you didn't understand what philly was doing.  They don't need to be a carbon-copy replication of oKC for my point to be any less accurate.  Teams with talent jump from 20 wins to 50 wins rapidly.  The fact that philly (by design) has no kristics and collisons on their roster 13 games into Noel's second season playing NBA basketball means jack squat long term.   Philly can sign some role players when they are ready to win.  The nick collisons of the world aren't going to snub philly when money is on the table.   They will have 60 million dollars to fill the Sefolosha quota.

They own the rights to embiid, Noel, okafor, saric and a few other interesting assets like Wroten, Grant, stauskas and others that are arguably more valuable than our rosier, mickey, Hunter and young assets.   They have a top 3 rookie coming this summer along with potentially three more 1sts (lakers if it falls outside the top 3).   It's a team loaded with assets.  Winning is clearly not a priority for them right now.  If you don't get it at this point, there's basically nothing I can say to you that will get through to you.  There's no guarantee they will be successful, but it would be incredibly easy for a compent gm to turn those assets into a 41 win team in the next three years.   They aren't aiming for 41 wins... They are aiming for 60+. I'm bored of making points that whoosh over heads.

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #64 on: November 27, 2015, 09:09:27 PM »

Offline Moranis

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THunder/Sonics won 20 and 23 games during Durant's first two seasons.  Don't underestimate the power of a team that is intentionally trying to lose games.   RIght now Philly has 2 NBA players and a bunch of D-Leaguers.

1.  The Sixers have won 19 and 18 games the past two seasons and are on pace to win even fewer this season.

2.  By Durant's second season, they already had Westbrook.  Durant/Westbrook > Noel/Okafor.

3.  Durant's second season, OKC also had Collison, Jeff Green, Kristic, and Sefalosha.  That means by Durant's second year, they already had 6 of the top 8 rotation players that would make the playoffs.  Philly has one, since even you admit Noel and Okafor can't coexist and we don't know if Embiid is ever going to play.

4.  No free agent is going to have Philly as their #1 choice.  Everyone else is going to have cap space and much more attractive situations.

5.  Even if Philly and LA end with the two worst records in the league, I believe they are statistically most likely to get the 4th and 5th pick in the draft.

6.  What basketball acumen has been demonstrated by the Philly brain trust?  Their lottery picks have been the completely obvious picks anyone would make and they've shown next to nothing when it comes to judging talent when assembling the rest of the roster.  Is there a single piece of evidence they have any idea of how to assemble a winning team?

7.  Now that everyone knows Noel and Okafor can't play together, it hurts Noel's trade value.  No one is giving up a king's ransom for him.

Let's remember that Philly isn't doing this so they can eventually make the Eastern Conference Finals a few times.  The goal is to put together a super team that will win multiple titles.  They are now in the third year of that process and are nowhere near that goal.  And despite your "everything's coming up roses" analysis, there are a whole series of things that have to break exactly right to get Philly anywhere close to that objective.

Mike
3.  They only have 1 player if you ignore Saric and Embiid and don't think a lottery pick like Stauskas will stick around. 

4.  Money changes a lot of things.

5.  that is just silly.

6.  They traded Holiday for Noel and a future pick.  They took MCW at 11 who became rookie of the year and then cashed him out right before his value started to tank.  They pulled KJ McDaniels from the 2nd round and then cashed him out for real value.  They knew they wanted Saric and initiated a trade where they picked up a future 1st and a future 2nd and still ended up with Saric.  They've managed to find some real rotation players from the scrap heap.  There is clear evidence that they have an eye for talent.

7.  It is not entirely clear they can't play together and even if they can't it hasn't affected eithers trade value.  Noel is hurt, that has a much greater affect on his trade value than his ability to play with Okafor.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #65 on: November 27, 2015, 09:24:49 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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THunder/Sonics won 20 and 23 games during Durant's first two seasons.  Don't underestimate the power of a team that is intentionally trying to lose games.   RIght now Philly has 2 NBA players and a bunch of D-Leaguers.

5.  Even if Philly and LA end with the two worst records in the league, I believe they are statistically most likely to get the 4th and 5th pick in the draft.


That is not correct.  The team with the worst record has a 35.7% chance of picking 4th.  The team with the 2nd record has a 12.3% chance of picking 5th.  The odds of both occurring are just 4.4%.   

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #66 on: November 27, 2015, 09:50:34 PM »

Offline MBunge

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Would be a lot easier if you guys just admitted you didn't understand what philly was doing.  They don't need to be a carbon-copy replication of oKC for my point to be any less accurate.

1.  Everybody knows what Philly is doing.  Everybody knows why you're in love with what Philly is doing.  You're the one who appears unable to accept that it's possible for an intelligent person to have a different opinion of what Philly is doing.

2.  Do you understand how examples are used in arguments?  If you use an example, it should support the point you are trying to make.  If you use an example and it doesn't support your argument, that is an indication your argument is weak.

3.  Given how spectacularly wrong you were about Embiid's medical condition, I think you might want to be a tiny bit less arrogant on this subject.  Your track record doesn't exactly justify it.

Mike


Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #67 on: November 27, 2015, 10:04:58 PM »

Offline saltlover

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THunder/Sonics won 20 and 23 games during Durant's first two seasons.  Don't underestimate the power of a team that is intentionally trying to lose games.   RIght now Philly has 2 NBA players and a bunch of D-Leaguers.

5.  Even if Philly and LA end with the two worst records in the league, I believe they are statistically most likely to get the 4th and 5th pick in the draft.


That is not correct.  The team with the worst record has a 35.7% chance of picking 4th.  The team with the 2nd record has a 12.3% chance of picking 5th.  The odds of both occurring are just 4.4%.   

Assuming the 35.7% and 12.3% numbers are correct (I'm not going to look them up), there is actually a 12.3% chance that the worst record picks 4th and the 2nd worst picks 5th.  This is because in order to fall three spots in the draft, three teams with worse lottery odds have to leapfrog you in the lottery.  If this happens, that means the top three spots go to teams with the 3-14th best odds, the team with the best odds (worst record) drops to fourth, and the team with the second-worst drops to 5th.  In other words, if the team with the 2nd-worst record picks 5th, necessarily the worst record picks 4th, since if three teams leapfrogged the second-worst team they also must have leapfrogged the worst team.

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #68 on: November 27, 2015, 10:06:50 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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I feel a Philly "W" on the way ... :)

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #69 on: November 27, 2015, 10:09:15 PM »

Offline esel1000

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I feel a Philly "W" on the way ... :)
Man if they beat the Rockets it'll be sweet

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #70 on: November 27, 2015, 10:10:28 PM »

Offline MBunge

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3.  They only have 1 player if you ignore Saric and Embiid and don't think a lottery pick like Stauskas will stick around. 

4.  Money changes a lot of things.

5.  that is just silly.

6.  They traded Holiday for Noel and a future pick.  They took MCW at 11 who became rookie of the year and then cashed him out right before his value started to tank.  They pulled KJ McDaniels from the 2nd round and then cashed him out for real value.  They knew they wanted Saric and initiated a trade where they picked up a future 1st and a future 2nd and still ended up with Saric.  They've managed to find some real rotation players from the scrap heap.  There is clear evidence that they have an eye for talent.

7.  It is not entirely clear they can't play together and even if they can't it hasn't affected eithers trade value.  Noel is hurt, that has a much greater affect on his trade value than his ability to play with Okafor.

1.  Yes, I'm not going to give too much credit to a player who may never be healthy enough to play a single minute in the NBA and another player who, right now, is as likely to be a busy as the franchise player Philly needs.

2.  Money doesn't change reality.

3.  The Lakers pick can't be any better than fourth, or Philly doesn't get it.  If Philly gets the worst record, they are most likely going to get the 4th pick.  So if Philly does get two lottery picks, they will most likely be out of 4, 5 and 6. 

4.  Philly has not found rotation players off the scrap heap.  I don't know how anyone can look at their roster and argue that.  It is not at all clear that they're going to wind up with better players than MCW or KJ.  Wanting Saric does not mean Saric is any good.  Didn't Ainge want Robert Swift once upon a time?

5.  The evidence that Noel and Okafor is the public discussion of moving Noel to the bench for that very reason.  And, of course, watching them try to play at the same time.  And if they can't play together it absolutely hurts Noel's trade value.  If everybody knows you have to/want to trade a player, it hurts your leverage in negotiations.

Mike

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #71 on: November 27, 2015, 10:12:06 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Would be a lot easier if you guys just admitted you didn't understand what philly was doing.  They don't need to be a carbon-copy replication of oKC for my point to be any less accurate.

1.  Everybody knows what Philly is doing.  Everybody knows why you're in love with what Philly is doing.  You're the one who appears unable to accept that it's possible for an intelligent person to have a different opinion of what Philly is doing.

2.  Do you understand how examples are used in arguments?  If you use an example, it should support the point you are trying to make.  If you use an example and it doesn't support your argument, that is an indication your argument is weak.

3.  Given how spectacularly wrong you were about Embiid's medical condition, I think you might want to be a tiny bit less arrogant on this subject.  Your track record doesn't exactly justify it.

Mike
i was more right about embiid's medical condition than anyone on this forum.  I was the one informing people to the fact that embiid was running around dunking without a boot and telling everyone he felt fine.  It took three months for that to be widely reported.

Unfortunately, none of us guessed he was doing this against the will of his team and that Philly was lying about his condition... Lol.   Who woulda thunk.

I don't think there's room for interpretation as to what Philly is doing.  They have intentionally put their team in position to lose this season.  If you think they are losing against their will, you don't get it.   Nothing they have done reflects the motivations of a team that cares about wins this season. 

The only thing we could disagree on is whatever or not Philly will perpetually be trying to lose.  I think that's foolish to expect.  At some point the goal will be to win.  I suspect that happens this summer.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2015, 10:17:28 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #72 on: November 27, 2015, 10:20:31 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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THunder/Sonics won 20 and 23 games during Durant's first two seasons.  Don't underestimate the power of a team that is intentionally trying to lose games.   RIght now Philly has 2 NBA players and a bunch of D-Leaguers.

5.  Even if Philly and LA end with the two worst records in the league, I believe they are statistically most likely to get the 4th and 5th pick in the draft.


That is not correct.  The team with the worst record has a 35.7% chance of picking 4th.  The team with the 2nd record has a 12.3% chance of picking 5th.  The odds of both occurring are just 4.4%.   

Assuming the 35.7% and 12.3% numbers are correct (I'm not going to look them up), there is actually a 12.3% chance that the worst record picks 4th and the 2nd worst picks 5th.  This is because in order to fall three spots in the draft, three teams with worse lottery odds have to leapfrog you in the lottery.  If this happens, that means the top three spots go to teams with the 3-14th best odds, the team with the best odds (worst record) drops to fourth, and the team with the second-worst drops to 5th.  In other words, if the team with the 2nd-worst record picks 5th, necessarily the worst record picks 4th, since if three teams leapfrogged the second-worst team they also must have leapfrogged the worst team.
Edited:  After re-reading your post, I concur with your math. 

Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #73 on: November 28, 2015, 07:06:13 PM »

Offline Big333223

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The Draft Lottery wikipedia page has a nice graph of odds, btw.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery
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Re: Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?
« Reply #74 on: November 28, 2015, 07:39:35 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Not if he goes to Orlando