Noel has started the last two games. He clearly doesn't fit next to Okafor. One of those guys will need to be traded. He has a minimum of two years left on his contract after this one... essentially locked up until at least Summer 2018, but that's assuming they don't extend him... I don't consider restricted free agency to be "free agency"... I'm going to guess you're assuming that Philly doesn't extend him and he ends up playing for his qualifying offer in 2017-18. Far-fetched, but we'll pretend.
I'm not sure why that is so far fetched.
Noel is a long and athletic (and seemingly quite competitive) big man, and while he is very limited offensively, he does have very high defensive upside. He's not likely to ever be a star, but guys of his mold always draw interest from teams in the NBA.
He's playing for a team that has been utterly horrendous the past three or so seasons, with no obvious signs of going anywhere fast.
If I were in Noel's place, I would want to get the hell out of the place as soon as I possibly can. There is no way in hell I would agree to an extension to stay with (what has become) a laughing stock of a franchise. No self respecting player would go through year after year of intentionally losing games, and then willingly choose to return to that.
If Noel DID agree to an extension then it would simply tell all the NBA world that he lacks competitiveness, and is the type of guy who is happy to spend the next 4 years of his life on a terrible team. As a GM, I wouldn't have much interest in signing such a player.
I wouldn't bet on him signing that extension...
The premise of this thread has to make the assumption that Okafor is the one who is traded... why else would Noel still be on the roster in 2018? It clearly doesn't work. One needs to be cashed in. So if Noel stays and Okafor leaves, what do you suspect Philly got for Okafor in this hypothetical?
There is no such assumption made. As far as I can see the assumption is that both players remain. Why would the Sixers trade one of them before Noel's contact expires?
Because they don't play well together? What - you think the Sixers are afraid that might cause them to lose some games? lol not likely.
You got teams like Orlando who are overloaded with SFs... Okafor for Harris... who says no? You got teams like the Bucks who are possibly overloaded with SFs (Middleton, Parker, Giannis).. Okafor for Parker... who says no?
If I were Philly, I would say no. Okafor is already better than Harris - possible better than he will ever be. Why on earth would I (as the Sixers) trade Okafor for Harris? No thanks.
I'd Take Sully, Bradley and a Brooklyn pick (any Brooklyn pick) over Harris any day of the week. Right now it's debatable if Harris is even any better than Bradley. Bradley is both a better shooter and a FAR better defender.
You now have Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger and Nerlens Noel. Let's just pretend Embiid's career is over even though it probably isn't... so let's pretend they get zero assets for Embiid. They still have a guaranteed top 4 pick this year, meaning they are getting Ben Simmons, Skal, Brown, Ingram, Murray... They get the Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3, so they might end up with two of those guys coming over... otherwise they get the Lakers unprotected 2017 pick.
* There is no certainty that their top 4 pick will not be a bust (many are)
* Given current records, they probably have a better chance of not getting the Lakers pick than getting it
* If they don't get the pick, the Lakers are in a better position to turn things around next year than they are (they have more young talent than Philly does) so that 2017 pick could be mediocre
* Their cap space means far less with the rising cap, since just about every team will have cap space over the next two years - there is little incentive for Free Agent's to sign for a garbage team like Philly
Yeah, I'd bet on them being a .500 team before 2019. A good GM could turn that team into a .500 team pretty easily. If they can't turn all of those assets into a .500 team over the next few seasons, that's a failure.
Why 2019?
Noah has this year and next year - he will be a free agent after the 2016/17 season, and Embiid will be after the 2017/18 season. Even Okafor will be a free agent before the 2018/19 season starts.
By the time 2019 comes along, all three of their "big draft hits" could well be gone.