Will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agency?

[coffee425]

Disclaimer: More Philly talk...

But I think you all know where I'm heading with this question... If Philly's rebuild takes longer than Nerlens Noel's rookie contract, let's bring the Mass kid home 

edit: Nerlens hits restricted free agency in the summer of 2017

[MikeJelly]

Doesn't he have like 3 or 4 more years on his contract?

A line up of:
Newman (Lakers Pick)
Saric
Simmons
Noel
Okafor

with possibly a healthy Embiid at some point, could easily be .500. Thats a really nice young team there.

[coffee425]

Doesn't he have like 3 or 4 more years on his contract?

A line up of:
Newman (Lakers Pick)
Saric
Simmons
Noel
Okafor

with possibly a healthy Embiid at some point, could easily be .500. Thats a really nice young team there.

To clarify, Nerlens has 2 years left after this season. Currently he's on the bench on a bad team, so logic would question if he'll even provide a significant enough impact to get them to .500

[bdm860]

Doesn't he have like 3 or 4 more years on his contract?

A line up of:
Newman (Lakers Pick)
Saric
Simmons
Noel
Okafor

with possibly a healthy Embiid at some point, could easily be .500. Thats a really nice young team there.

To clarify, Nerlens has 2 years left after this season. Currently he's on the bench on a bad team, so logic would question if he'll even provide a significant enough impact to get them to .500

He has 1 year left on his contract after this season.

[coffee425]

Doesn't he have like 3 or 4 more years on his contract?

A line up of:
Newman (Lakers Pick)
Saric
Simmons
Noel
Okafor

with possibly a healthy Embiid at some point, could easily be .500. Thats a really nice young team there.

To clarify, Nerlens has 2 years left after this season. Currently he's on the bench on a bad team, so logic would question if he'll even provide a significant enough impact to get them to .500

He has 1 year left on his contract after this season.

you are correct. i read this incorrecthttp://www.spotrac.com/nba/philadelphia-76ers/nerlens-noel/

[saltlover]

Not a chance.  Noel hits free agency after next season.  They are not going to be a .500 team by then.  Yes, it will be restricted free agency, but a) I'm not completely sure it will make sense for Philly to spend big on Noel if they're not competitive yet, and b) there will likely be a new CBA, so it remains to be seen what the cap level will be, will there be a change to maximum contract lengths or value, and if any rules around restricted free agency will change.

Because of point a), I believe Noel will be traded before he reaches free agency.  If the Sixers aren't ready to spend in free agency yet, that includes spending on their own players as well as other teams' free agents.

[coffee425]

Not a chance.  Noel hits free agency after next season.  They are not going to be a .500 team by then.  Yes, it will be restricted free agency, but a) I'm not completely sure it will make sense for Philly to spend big on Noel if they're not competitive yet, and b) there will likely be a new CBA, so it remains to be seen what the cap level will be, will there be a change to maximum contract lengths or value, and if any rules around restricted free agency will change.

Because of point a), I believe Noel will be traded before he reaches free agency.  If the Sixers aren't ready to spend in free agency yet, that includes spending on their own players as well as other teams' free agents.

*sigh... poor guy was suppose to be the first step in the rebuild, just ended up wasting his first nba legs on a team that'll probably get rid of him via any method.

[slamtheking]

will Philly be a .500 team before Noel hits free agenchy?

[PhoSita]

RFA?  Probably not, at this rate.

UFA?  Most likely.


With Noel's injury history, there's no chance he takes the QO, and with the amount of cap space Philly will have, there's no way they don't sign him.  If they want to trade him, they'll do so after they've signed him to a new extended deal.  There will be somebody willing to trade for him, if that's what it comes down to.

[Jon]

Before anyone automatically thinks Simmons will be a Sixer, remember what happened to us in 1997 when we had our pick and the Mavs pick and still missed out on Duncan.

So even multiple lottery picks is no gimme (plus, the Laker pick is top 3 protected, right?).

[Moranis]

Before anyone automatically thinks Simmons will be a Sixer, remember what happened to us in 1997 when we had our pick and the Mavs pick and still missed out on Duncan.

So even multiple lottery picks is no gimme (plus, the Laker pick is top 3 protected, right?).

Even if they don't get Simmons there is a clear path to respectability next season and that is without breaking the bank in free agency.  Even just bringing over Saric and adding two high picks (their own and the Lakers) would immensely improve the talent, but if Embiid comes back all of a sudden there is a real chance of mediocrity next year.  Say they get Jaylen Brown and Jamal Murray (currently 3 and 5 on nbadraft and 4 and 6 on draftexpress), the Sixers would now have PG - Murray, SG - Brown, SF - Saric, PF - Noel, C - Okafor with Embiid, Covington, Wroten, Grant, Thompson on the bench.  Add in two more 1st round picks from OKC and Miami and all of a sudden the Sixers have a ton of talent, that actually fits better, and they still haven't spent anything on free agents. 

[Evantime34]

RFA?  Probably not, at this rate.

UFA?  Most likely.


With Noel's injury history, there's no chance he takes the QO, and with the amount of cap space Philly will have, there's no way they don't sign him.  If they want to trade him, they'll do so after they've signed him to a new extended deal.  There will be somebody willing to trade for him, if that's what it comes down to.

Maybe it is not the most likely scenario but there is absolutely a chance he gets tired of losing and wants out.

[PhoSita]

Before anyone automatically thinks Simmons will be a Sixer, remember what happened to us in 1997 when we had our pick and the Mavs pick and still missed out on Duncan.

So even multiple lottery picks is no gimme (plus, the Laker pick is top 3 protected, right?).

It's true they have no guarantee of getting Simmons (probably 25% chance at best), imagine they enjoy a little bit of luck and get the #2 pick, and the Lakers pick falls to #4.


Two top 5 picks plus maybe Saric coming over next year ... that could turn things around quickly for them.  Simply adding NBA talents to that team will make a big difference.

If Embiid can actually play 15-20 minutes a night next year, and they trade either Noel or Okafor for multiple pieces, they could start to look like an actual team pretty quickly.


Sometimes it seems like we're talking about a team that's been at the bottom of the standings for 5 years.  The Sixers are only in their third year of all-out tanking, and they could flip this into a roster with quite a bit of NBA talent pretty quickly without even getting the #1 pick once.

[LarBrd33]

Doesn't he have like 3 or 4 more years on his contract?

A line up of:
Newman (Lakers Pick)
Saric
Simmons
Noel
Okafor

with possibly a healthy Embiid at some point, could easily be .500. Thats a really nice young team there.

To clarify, Nerlens has 2 years left after this season. Currently he's on the bench on a bad team, so logic would question if he'll even provide a significant enough impact to get them to .500

Noel has started the last two games.  He clearly doesn't fit next to Okafor.  One of those guys will need to be traded.   He has a minimum of two years left on his contract after this one... essentially locked up until at least Summer 2018, but that's assuming they don't extend him... I don't consider restricted free agency to be "free agency"...  I'm going to guess you're assuming that Philly doesn't extend him and he ends up playing for his qualifying offer in 2017-18.  Far-fetched, but we'll pretend.

The premise of this thread has to make the assumption that Okafor is the one who is traded... why else would Noel still be on the roster in 2018?  It clearly doesn't work.  One needs to be cashed in.   So if Noel stays and Okafor leaves, what do you suspect Philly got for Okafor in this hypothetical?   

I'll turn to my fellow Celtic fans... what's your best offer for a 19 year old beast who is averaging 18.4 points, 8 rebounds, 1.7 blocks with 48% shooting... and just torched the #1 rookie for 25 points,12 rebounds and 2 blocks?   Clearly you'd give up Sully for him.  Would you also include Avery Bradley?  Would you give up Marcus Smart + additional 1sts?   Go ahead... tell me your godfather offer for Jahlil Okafor.   Until someone gives me a better answer, I'll just pencil in Avery Bradley and Sully (Philly says hell no)... But if we were to think outside the Boston box... You got teams like Orlando who are overloaded with SFs... Okafor for Harris... who says no?    You got teams like the Bucks who are possibly overloaded with SFs (Middleton, Parker, Giannis).. Okafor for Parker... who says no?   But lets stick with Boston since it's what we know.

You now have Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger and Nerlens Noel.   Let's just pretend Embiid's career is over even though it probably isn't... so let's pretend they get zero assets for Embiid.    They still have a guaranteed top 4 pick this year, meaning they are getting Ben Simmons, Skal, Brown, Ingram, Murray...     They get the Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3, so they might end up with two of those guys coming over... otherwise they get the Lakers unprotected 2017 pick.    They have Saric coming over at some point before 2018.   They have oodles of cap space.   They have two more 2016 1sts coming this year from Miami and OKC.  They have prospects with some value like Wroten, Stauskas, Grant, etc...

Yeah, I'd bet on them being a .500 team before 2019.  A good GM could turn that team into a .500 team pretty easily.   If they can't turn all of those assets into a .500 team over the next few seasons, that's a failure. 

[tazzmaniac]

Before anyone automatically thinks Simmons will be a Sixer, remember what happened to us in 1997 when we had our pick and the Mavs pick and still missed out on Duncan.

So even multiple lottery picks is no gimme (plus, the Laker pick is top 3 protected, right?).

It's true they have no guarantee of getting Simmons (probably 25% chance at best), imagine they enjoy a little bit of luck and get the #2 pick, and the Lakers pick falls to #4.

They also have the right to swap picks with the Kings.  So if the season finishes as it stands now with the Sixers having the worst record and the Kings having the 5th worst record, the Sixers would have a 33.8% chance at the #1 pick.  Best case with the Sixers and Kings finishing with the worst two records, would give them a 44.9% chance.