Sixers plan being questioned again

[Evantime34]

It is hard to have a definitive opinion on the plan at this point.

Until the Sixers put a roster together to try to win games, the rebuild hasn't finished and thus can't know if it was a success. For the plan to be a success Philly will need to be good for an extended amount of time.

This is a vital year for the plan. If the Sixers get Ben Simmons they probably take off and the plan is a success. If they don't get Ben Simmons I could see them tanking another year after this. The Sixers organization doesn't care, because even if they lose, they turn a profit with revenue sharing.

It will really be interesting what happens with the picks that they made at the start of their rebuild. Will Noel tell the Sixers he is going to take the QO when he becomes a free agent as leverage to force a trade? Will Saric wait to come over until he is exempt from the rookie salary scale? Will Embiid ever be healthy?

[KeepRondo]

It is hard to have a definitive opinion on the plan at this point.

Until the Sixers put a roster together to try to win games, the rebuild hasn't finished and thus can't know if it was a success. For the plan to be a success Philly will need to be good for an extended amount of time.

This is a vital year for the plan. If the Sixers get Ben Simmons they probably take off and the plan is a success. If they don't get Ben Simmons I could see them tanking another year after this. The Sixers organization doesn't care, because even if they lose, they turn a profit with revenue sharing.

It will really be interesting what happens with the picks that they made at the start of their rebuild. Will Noel tell the Sixers he is going to take the QO when he becomes a free agent as leverage to force a trade? Will Saric wait to come over until he is exempt from the rookie salary scale? Will Embiid ever be healthy?

I agree. Ben Simmons would be a game changer and probably the first no brainer pick if Hinkie can get him.

My question is. Is Simmons a 3 or 4. And if he is a 3, he probably can play the 4 for some stretches. So that leaves some questions for how Noel and Saric will fit in and how much playing time is going to be available.

[MBunge]

Doesn't sound to me like they're questioning the plan at all.  If you read the piece thoroughly, the thesis seems to be that the Sixers' plan still makes sense, they simply haven't enjoyed the good luck yet that is necessary for all rebuilds to get off the ground. 

The difference is that Philly's plan is ENTIRELY dependent on luck.

Mike

[tazzmaniac]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Actually, no.

According to Article VIII Section 2 of the CBA, if a first round draft pick does not sign with the team that holds his draft rights within 3 years following the draft that he was selected in, he can negotiate a contract (of 3+ years in length) greater than 120% of the rookie scale contract, presuming the team that holds his rights has the cap space to do so.

Actually, yes if Saric comes over next season like he stated recently that he would.  He'll have to stay in Europe an additional year for the rule you quote to apply.

Attention to detail. LB said he'll be under his rookie scale deal when he arrives, which is not correct.

I wouldn't take what Saric says too seriously. It makes no monetary sense. Better to spend one more year in Europe, for more money, and being free to negotiate a deal thereafter than bogged down under a limited rookie scale contract for years. Saric has all the leverage, even if his scouting report recently has been lackluster.

He tried to get out of his Euro contract this past offseason but the buyout was too big.  I agree it doesn't make sense financially but there is no reason for him to say he is coming over next season if he doesn't mean it.

He's giving the politically correct answer. In fact, there was the report that Saric's dad wouldn't even allow Hinkie to meet with him.


Here it is...

• Fans may have to wait a little longer for first-round pick Dario Saric. The piece states Saric's father doesn't want him playing for the Sixers any time soon. It also asserts Hinkie's face time with Saric was kept to a minimum during a trip to Turkey in 2014. "Saric’s father, who acts as a de facto representative for his son, doesn’t want the Sixers close to Saric," the article said. Supposedly Saric's father wants his son to wait until he is no longer subject to the rookie wage scale in 2017-18

Where's the link to the actual article?  Couldn't you find something from 2015 to support your claims? 

Well here are a couple quotes from Saric himself from just a few weeks ago.  They certainly aren't politically correct statements.  Like I said, he may change his mind because of the financials but he's definitive right now that he is coming over. 

'I'm in constant contact with the Sixers," Saric told Croatia's Vecernji list. "They wanted me to come this summer, but I couldn't get out of the contract. Next summer I have a way out, and I'm gonna take it. I'll try to go out as the Euroleague champion. That's the dream.'"

"I can't say I'm happy with the situation," Saric said. "But it's not all that bad. The decision to come to Efes was my own, and I don't regret it. What if I had gone to the NBA immediately and failed 'cause I was still inexperienced, and now I'd be looking to come back to Europe? I have my own way to achieve my goal."

http://www.nj.com/sixers/index.ssf/2015/11/dario_saric_says_hes_coming_to_the_sixers_in_2016.html

[KeepRondo]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Actually, no.

According to Article VIII Section 2 of the CBA, if a first round draft pick does not sign with the team that holds his draft rights within 3 years following the draft that he was selected in, he can negotiate a contract (of 3+ years in length) greater than 120% of the rookie scale contract, presuming the team that holds his rights has the cap space to do so.

Actually, yes if Saric comes over next season like he stated recently that he would.  He'll have to stay in Europe an additional year for the rule you quote to apply.

Attention to detail. LB said he'll be under his rookie scale deal when he arrives, which is not correct.

I wouldn't take what Saric says too seriously. It makes no monetary sense. Better to spend one more year in Europe, for more money, and being free to negotiate a deal thereafter than bogged down under a limited rookie scale contract for years. Saric has all the leverage, even if his scouting report recently has been lackluster.

He tried to get out of his Euro contract this past offseason but the buyout was too big.  I agree it doesn't make sense financially but there is no reason for him to say he is coming over next season if he doesn't mean it.

He's giving the politically correct answer. In fact, there was the report that Saric's dad wouldn't even allow Hinkie to meet with him.


Here it is...

• Fans may have to wait a little longer for first-round pick Dario Saric. The piece states Saric's father doesn't want him playing for the Sixers any time soon. It also asserts Hinkie's face time with Saric was kept to a minimum during a trip to Turkey in 2014. "Saric’s father, who acts as a de facto representative for his son, doesn’t want the Sixers close to Saric," the article said. Supposedly Saric's father wants his son to wait until he is no longer subject to the rookie wage scale in 2017-18

Where's the link to the actual article?  Couldn't you find something from 2015 to support your claims? 

Well here are a couple quotes from Saric himself from just a few weeks ago.  They certainly aren't politically correct statements.  Like I said, he may change his mind because of the financials but he's definitive right now that he is coming over. 

'I'm in constant contact with the Sixers," Saric told Croatia's Vecernji list. "They wanted me to come this summer, but I couldn't get out of the contract. Next summer I have a way out, and I'm gonna take it. I'll try to go out as the Euroleague champion. That's the dream.'"

"I can't say I'm happy with the situation," Saric said. "But it's not all that bad. The decision to come to Efes was my own, and I don't regret it. What if I had gone to the NBA immediately and failed 'cause I was still inexperienced, and now I'd be looking to come back to Europe? I have my own way to achieve my goal."

http://www.nj.com/sixers/index.ssf/2015/11/dario_saric_says_hes_coming_to_the_sixers_in_2016.html

Sounds like he's confused.

[tazzmaniac]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Actually, no.

According to Article VIII Section 2 of the CBA, if a first round draft pick does not sign with the team that holds his draft rights within 3 years following the draft that he was selected in, he can negotiate a contract (of 3+ years in length) greater than 120% of the rookie scale contract, presuming the team that holds his rights has the cap space to do so.

Actually, yes if Saric comes over next season like he stated recently that he would.  He'll have to stay in Europe an additional year for the rule you quote to apply.

Attention to detail. LB said he'll be under his rookie scale deal when he arrives, which is not correct.

I wouldn't take what Saric says too seriously. It makes no monetary sense. Better to spend one more year in Europe, for more money, and being free to negotiate a deal thereafter than bogged down under a limited rookie scale contract for years. Saric has all the leverage, even if his scouting report recently has been lackluster.

He tried to get out of his Euro contract this past offseason but the buyout was too big.  I agree it doesn't make sense financially but there is no reason for him to say he is coming over next season if he doesn't mean it.

He's giving the politically correct answer. In fact, there was the report that Saric's dad wouldn't even allow Hinkie to meet with him.


Here it is...

• Fans may have to wait a little longer for first-round pick Dario Saric. The piece states Saric's father doesn't want him playing for the Sixers any time soon. It also asserts Hinkie's face time with Saric was kept to a minimum during a trip to Turkey in 2014. "Saric’s father, who acts as a de facto representative for his son, doesn’t want the Sixers close to Saric," the article said. Supposedly Saric's father wants his son to wait until he is no longer subject to the rookie wage scale in 2017-18

Where's the link to the actual article?  Couldn't you find something from 2015 to support your claims? 

Well here are a couple quotes from Saric himself from just a few weeks ago.  They certainly aren't politically correct statements.  Like I said, he may change his mind because of the financials but he's definitive right now that he is coming over. 

'I'm in constant contact with the Sixers," Saric told Croatia's Vecernji list. "They wanted me to come this summer, but I couldn't get out of the contract. Next summer I have a way out, and I'm gonna take it. I'll try to go out as the Euroleague champion. That's the dream.'"

"I can't say I'm happy with the situation," Saric said. "But it's not all that bad. The decision to come to Efes was my own, and I don't regret it. What if I had gone to the NBA immediately and failed 'cause I was still inexperienced, and now I'd be looking to come back to Europe? I have my own way to achieve my goal."

http://www.nj.com/sixers/index.ssf/2015/11/dario_saric_says_hes_coming_to_the_sixers_in_2016.html

Sounds like he's confused.

Confused???  Even though it doesn't fit into the Sixer bashing scenario, the quotes are clear.  Saric knows his situation and is, currently, dead set on coming over next year. 

[Eddie20]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Actually, no.

According to Article VIII Section 2 of the CBA, if a first round draft pick does not sign with the team that holds his draft rights within 3 years following the draft that he was selected in, he can negotiate a contract (of 3+ years in length) greater than 120% of the rookie scale contract, presuming the team that holds his rights has the cap space to do so.

Actually, yes if Saric comes over next season like he stated recently that he would.  He'll have to stay in Europe an additional year for the rule you quote to apply.

Attention to detail. LB said he'll be under his rookie scale deal when he arrives, which is not correct.

I wouldn't take what Saric says too seriously. It makes no monetary sense. Better to spend one more year in Europe, for more money, and being free to negotiate a deal thereafter than bogged down under a limited rookie scale contract for years. Saric has all the leverage, even if his scouting report recently has been lackluster.

He tried to get out of his Euro contract this past offseason but the buyout was too big.  I agree it doesn't make sense financially but there is no reason for him to say he is coming over next season if he doesn't mean it.

He's giving the politically correct answer. In fact, there was the report that Saric's dad wouldn't even allow Hinkie to meet with him.


Here it is...

• Fans may have to wait a little longer for first-round pick Dario Saric. The piece states Saric's father doesn't want him playing for the Sixers any time soon. It also asserts Hinkie's face time with Saric was kept to a minimum during a trip to Turkey in 2014. "Saric’s father, who acts as a de facto representative for his son, doesn’t want the Sixers close to Saric," the article said. Supposedly Saric's father wants his son to wait until he is no longer subject to the rookie wage scale in 2017-18

Where's the link to the actual article?  Couldn't you find something from 2015 to support your claims? 

Well here are a couple quotes from Saric himself from just a few weeks ago.  They certainly aren't politically correct statements.  Like I said, he may change his mind because of the financials but he's definitive right now that he is coming over. 

'I'm in constant contact with the Sixers," Saric told Croatia's Vecernji list. "They wanted me to come this summer, but I couldn't get out of the contract. Next summer I have a way out, and I'm gonna take it. I'll try to go out as the Euroleague champion. That's the dream.'"

"I can't say I'm happy with the situation," Saric said. "But it's not all that bad. The decision to come to Efes was my own, and I don't regret it. What if I had gone to the NBA immediately and failed 'cause I was still inexperienced, and now I'd be looking to come back to Europe? I have my own way to achieve my goal."

http://www.nj.com/sixers/index.ssf/2015/11/dario_saric_says_hes_coming_to_the_sixers_in_2016.html

Is this recent enough for you?
Fri Oct. 16, 2015

http://www.si.com/thecauldron/2015/10/16/philadelphia-76ers-sam-hinkie-joel-embiid-brett-brown-process

According to a source, Saric’s father, who acts as a de facto representative for his son, doesn’t want the Sixers close to Saric. When Hinkie traveled to Turkey to meet with Saric in the summer of 2014, he was given very little face time with him, at the father’s direction. If Saric waits until the 2017–18 season to come to the NBA, he’ll be able to sign a contract that is not subject to the rookie wage scale (in the same way Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic did). As much as Hinkie is playing the long game, having to wait three full seasons to get a first-round draft pick signed and on the floor sets back the program.

[Eddie20]

This what Givony had to say

Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress
Encouraging news for 76ers fans on Dario Saric. Would be nice if there was video? There's a history of him misquoted/sending mixed messages.
12:07 PM - 5 Nov 2015

Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress
Does Saric wait one more year for a major payday, or be locked into a paltry rookie scale contract for four years? A lot of money at stake.
12:10 PM - 5 Nov 2015

[Moranis]

This what Givony had to say

Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress
Encouraging news for 76ers fans on Dario Saric. Would be nice if there was video? There's a history of him misquoted/sending mixed messages.
12:07 PM - 5 Nov 2015

Jonathan Givony @DraftExpress
Does Saric wait one more year for a major payday, or be locked into a paltry rookie scale contract for four years? A lot of money at stake.
12:10 PM - 5 Nov 2015

which was exactly my point.  Dario wants to come over, his father doesn't want him to until the rookie contract expires, so his father is trying his best to keep Dario from contacting anyone.  It isn't a Sixers or Hinkie thing, it is a money thing.

[GC003332]

What supporters of the 76ers master plan and their asset collection mode style of GMing don't or won't acknowledge is the damage this is doing to the assets themselves, say Okafor puts up his 19 & 8 stat line , who is more likely to get a Rookie of the year award, him or Towns or Porzingis if they maintain their play for the entire season on teams that could well win double the games the Sixers win.Fair or not If you have players with similar stat lines it is far easier to give it to the guy on a much better team.
For the player themselves who measure themselves against their peers they are at a disadvantage from the start.Say their second or third season they don't get any National TV games , don't even sniff all star consideration due the 76ers record in their asset collection mode, that will create more resentment if their peers start to garner an all star spot.
National recognition and respect goes a long way to build confidence , being part of history for all the wrong reasons can drag a players confidence through the mud and be damaging to start a career.
How many teams have lost 60 plus games three straight years and won a championship soon after?
Doctor J said it is a 7 year plan a few months back, wonder how many of the current group of superior prospects have the stomach for the next 2 or 3 years of pain to even want to be in a Sixers uniform that far down the line..
The Fans certainly don't have the stomach for it , Second last in Home attendance and last in attendance overall.
I guess in this modern day of instant gratification , people who love their fantasy stats and are removed from the day to day pain of losing can get all excited about this style of GMing. The players themselves not so much.

[PhoSita]

Why does having to wait until Saric can get a non-rookie contract "set back the program"?  They won't be good anyway, and it's not like cap space will be an issue for them.

The main issue is that he's developing elsewhere instead of getting to play with other guys on the Sixers, but they probably won't be keeping 3/4 of these players anyway, so I guess that doesn't matter, either.

[Evantime34]

It is hard to have a definitive opinion on the plan at this point.

Until the Sixers put a roster together to try to win games, the rebuild hasn't finished and thus can't know if it was a success. For the plan to be a success Philly will need to be good for an extended amount of time.

This is a vital year for the plan. If the Sixers get Ben Simmons they probably take off and the plan is a success. If they don't get Ben Simmons I could see them tanking another year after this. The Sixers organization doesn't care, because even if they lose, they turn a profit with revenue sharing.

It will really be interesting what happens with the picks that they made at the start of their rebuild. Will Noel tell the Sixers he is going to take the QO when he becomes a free agent as leverage to force a trade? Will Saric wait to come over until he is exempt from the rookie salary scale? Will Embiid ever be healthy?

I agree. Ben Simmons would be a game changer and probably the first no brainer pick if Hinkie can get him.

My question is. Is Simmons a 3 or 4. And if he is a 3, he probably can play the 4 for some stretches. So that leaves some questions for how Noel and Saric will fit in and how much playing time is going to be available.

I think he could play either position. He has the size for the 4 and the speed/quickness for the 3.

[PhoSita]

Doesn't sound to me like they're questioning the plan at all.  If you read the piece thoroughly, the thesis seems to be that the Sixers' plan still makes sense, they simply haven't enjoyed the good luck yet that is necessary for all rebuilds to get off the ground. 

The difference is that Philly's plan is ENTIRELY dependent on luck.

Mike

I suppose you could say that it's dependent on luck in the sense that any draft pick turning into a superstar requires luck.  But I think they'd tell you that this is true of any team that chooses to build through the draft.  They have decided to maximize their odds of getting one of the top picks and turning that pick into a superstar. 

After all, there's less "luck" required in having a pick in the top 5 turn into a superstar versus picking in the 7-15 range every year, which is where they were before.

[KeepRondo]

What supporters of the 76ers master plan and their asset collection mode style of GMing don't or won't acknowledge is the damage this is doing to the assets themselves, say Okafor puts up his 19 & 8 stat line , who is more likely to get a Rookie of the year award, him or Towns or Porzingis if they maintain their play for the entire season on teams that could well win double the games the Sixers win.Fair or not If you have players with similar stat lines it is far easier to give it to the guy on a much better team.
For the player themselves who measure themselves against their peers they are at a disadvantage from the start.Say their second or third season they don't get any National TV games , don't even sniff all star consideration due the 76ers record in their asset collection mode, that will create more resentment if their peers start to garner an all star spot.
National recognition and respect goes a long way to build confidence , being part of history for all the wrong reasons can drag a players confidence through the mud and be damaging to start a career.
How many teams have lost 60 plus games three straight years and won a championship soon after?
Doctor J said it is a 7 year plan a few months back, wonder how many of the current group of superior prospects have the stomach for the next 2 or 3 years of pain to even want to be in a Sixers uniform that far down the line..
The Fans certainly don't have the stomach for it , Second last in Home attendance and last in attendance overall.
I guess in this modern day of instant gratification , people who love their fantasy stats and are removed from the day to day pain of losing can get all excited about this style of GMing. The players themselves not so much.

But if they get Simmons, like Evantime commented on, all will be forgiven from their fans.

[PhoSita]

I'd consider our rebuild a smashing success if we had a chance of winning 50+ games for 5-10 years.  There's no way to guarantee a championship but putting together a 50+ win team over several years at least gives you multiple shots to get one.

I'm with you.  I think Philly fans would be even more content with a team that's simply consistently competitive e.g. what the Bulls have done over the last 5 years or so.

Hinkie doesn't need to bring a championship to Philadelphia for his "plan" to be vindicated.