Sixers plan being questioned again

[mctyson]

I'm thinking their strategy might be "let's be horrible until we land a superstar".

But that's what is in question...there is no guarantee what you define as their strategy will "work" in the classic sense in that it will build a championship-contending franchise. 

Yes, it works if you land Magic, Bird, MJ, Hakeem, Duncan, Kobe, or Lebron.  If they landed Russel Westbrook, would that be a success?  How about Demarcus Cousins?  Chris Bosh?

There is a difference between the first 6 players I mentioned and the other random names.  I think all could be considered "superstars" but only the first ones are legendary players, arguably some of the best that have ever played, and champions.  Everyone on this board needs to recognize that even "superstars" don't bring banners, and sometimes they never even bring a trip to the NBA Finals.

That's what Philly fans have to be concerned about. 

[LarBrd33]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.

I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.

I think it is pretty easy to declare that Payton on a rookie contract skill is a better asset than Saric coming over on a veteran level contract. I don't really think that is very debatable. If their team right now was Gordon, Peyton, Noel and Okafor I think people could feel a lot more excited.

Are you also saying there is a non-zero chance Noel decides he has enough of this circus environment and leaves after his qualifying  year?

The Sixers were actually going to take Saric at 10.  They called the Magic at the last minute and traded back to 12 to take Saric and in the process got a 2015 2nd and their own 1st round pick back that Orlando had received in the Howard trade. 

In other words they got the player they wanted and a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.

If you want anyone to take your viewpoints seriously on the 76ers you can't just blindly defend every single thing they have ever done and never ever be critical. I don't think what they are doing is going to work overall, but I can at least say some of their moves were good to great. To give examples

1) I think the dump of holiday was a great trade
2) I think Noel was a great pick for where they got him
3) I think Bob Covington was a great find as a rotation player out of nowhere
4) I think the opportunity to swap picks with a historical terrible franchise for a salary dump (sac) was a really good deal

On the other hand my opinion is that okafor was a bad pick for their roster balance. I think if they knew that they were not going to get Saric for 3-4 years they wouldn't have drafted him (especially coupled with reports that his highly involved dad blocks the 76ers from drafting him). I think it has been a mistake for development to have zero quality veteran players on the team.

If you want anyone to take you seriously, you should probably acknowledge some of the poor moves they have made and stop being the one man fan club of their awful awful role players.

Only thing I'll comment on is in reply to you saying Okafor was a bad pick for their roster balance.   Porzingus looks good, but he seemed like a much riskier pick there...  Okafor was a safe bet.  Who gives a crap about roster balance at this point.  THey will tank another season and sell off the least desirable bigs to the highest bidder... and you can be [dang] sure there will be serious bids. 

Dudes, Okafor is 19 years old, 6'11 275 pounds and averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 1.6 blocks with 47% shooting.   Think about that for a second.   Boston's best asset is a 21 year old who is currently out indefinitely with an injury and is averaging 9 points on 32%/24%/60% shooting in his second year.   

Hinkie's "plan" is pretty straight-forward.  Land top 10 picks and try to get a superstar.  Boston has 1 of those players (Smart) and everyone here is ga-ga over him... Philly has multiple.  Their best prospect is better than our best prospect.  Their best pick is better than our best pick.   We have more role players.  Role players aren't hard to come by.   Philly should address their needs down the line.  Right now it doesn't matter.

[tazzmaniac]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.

I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.

I think it is pretty easy to declare that Payton on a rookie contract skill is a better asset than Saric coming over on a veteran level contract. I don't really think that is very debatable. If their team right now was Gordon, Peyton, Noel and Okafor I think people could feel a lot more excited.

Are you also saying there is a non-zero chance Noel decides he has enough of this circus environment and leaves after his qualifying  year?

The Sixers were actually going to take Saric at 10.  They called the Magic at the last minute and traded back to 12 to take Saric and in the process got a 2015 2nd and their own 1st round pick back that Orlando had received in the Howard trade. 

In other words they got the player they wanted and a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.

If you want anyone to take your viewpoints seriously on the 76ers you can't just blindly defend every single thing they have ever done and never ever be critical. I don't think what they are doing is going to work overall, but I can at least say some of their moves were good to great. To give examples

1) I think the dump of holiday was a great trade
2) I think Noel was a great pick for where they got him
3) I think Bob Covington was a great find as a rotation player out of nowhere
4) I think the opportunity to swap picks with a historical terrible franchise for a salary dump (sac) was a really good deal

On the other hand my opinion is that okafor was a bad pick for their roster balance. I think if they knew that they were not going to get Saric for 3-4 years they wouldn't have drafted him (especially coupled with reports that his highly involved dad blocks the 76ers from drafting him). I think it has been a mistake for development to have zero quality veteran players on the team.

If you want anyone to take you seriously, you should probably acknowledge some of the poor moves they have made and stop being the one man fan club of their awful awful role players.

They are bad moves in your opinion.  In my opinion, Saric and Okafor were good picks.

Saric hasn't been sitting around atrophying.  He's been developing playing Euro ball (much, much better than being in D-League).  He has stated recently that he'll be coming to the NBA next year which would be great for the Sixers.  Even if he waits for another year for financial reasons, he'll still be a good addition to their team.   

Okafor was generally considered the 2nd best player with star potential but also NBA ready.  Porzingis was thought to have great potential but he was still considered more of a project.  When you're a really bad team, you should always draft best player available. 

Since I've said Ainge blew it by taking KO over the Greek Freak, I'd have to say the same for Hinkie taking MCW over him especially since Hinkie's plan was to go all-in to get players with star potential. 

[Eddie20]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.

I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.

I think it is pretty easy to declare that Payton on a rookie contract skill is a better asset than Saric coming over on a veteran level contract. I don't really think that is very debatable. If their team right now was Gordon, Peyton, Noel and Okafor I think people could feel a lot more excited.

Are you also saying there is a non-zero chance Noel decides he has enough of this circus environment and leaves after his qualifying  year?

The Sixers were actually going to take Saric at 10.  They called the Magic at the last minute and traded back to 12 to take Saric and in the process got a 2015 2nd and their own 1st round pick back that Orlando had received in the Howard trade. 

In other words they got the player they wanted and a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.

Add to that, Saric has been quoted recently stating that he would be playing in the NBA next season.  If he doesn't change his mind, he would end up being on a rookie contract.

Awesome. Embiid 2 years in and 0 games. Saric 2 years in and 0 games. Noel 3 years and hasn't improved a lick. Quickly those rookie deals are coming to and end and they have little to show for it.

[PhoSita]

I'm thinking their strategy might be "let's be horrible until we land a superstar".

But that's what is in question...there is no guarantee what you define as their strategy will "work" in the classic sense in that it will build a championship-contending franchise. 

Yes, it works if you land Magic, Bird, MJ, Hakeem, Duncan, Kobe, or Lebron.  If they landed Russel Westbrook, would that be a success?  How about Demarcus Cousins?  Chris Bosh?

I think you can build a 50+ win team around a Cousins / Westbrook / Bosh type player, though you have to do a really good job building a supporting cast.

At this point, I imagine it would be considered a smashing success in Philadelphia if they had a team that had a shot at winning 50+ games for 5-10 years.  Yeah, you need to draft a generational talent to garner a title via tanking. 

But for a team whose high point over the past 15 years was coming reasonably close to beating an aging Celtics team in the second round in 2012, an extended run of relevance in the Eastern Conference would probably make most Sixers fans feel like these few years of tanking were worth it.

[tazzmaniac]

I'm thinking their strategy might be "let's be horrible until we land a superstar".

But that's what is in question...there is no guarantee what you define as their strategy will "work" in the classic sense in that it will build a championship-contending franchise. 

Yes, it works if you land Magic, Bird, MJ, Hakeem, Duncan, Kobe, or Lebron.  If they landed Russel Westbrook, would that be a success?  How about Demarcus Cousins?  Chris Bosh?

I think you can build a 50+ win team around a Cousins / Westbrook / Bosh type player, though you have to do a really good job building a supporting cast.

At this point, I imagine it would be considered a smashing success in Philadelphia if they had a team that had a shot at winning 50+ games for 5-10 years.  Yeah, you need to draft a generational talent to garner a title via tanking. 

But for a team whose high point over the past 15 years was coming reasonably close to beating an aging Celtics team in the second round in 2012, an extended run of relevance in the Eastern Conference would probably make most Sixers fans feel like these few years of tanking were worth it.

I'd consider our rebuild a smashing success if we had a chance of winning 50+ games for 5-10 years.  There's no way to guarantee a championship but putting together a 50+ win team over several years at least gives you multiple shots to get one.   

[oldtype]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail? No matter how many years the rebuild takes, they'll always have amazing assets by definition if only because they have their own pick every year.

Imagine if they miss out on Ben Simmons this year, draft Skal Labissiere (who turns out to be okay but not fantastic), and end up substantially in the same position as they are now by the start of next season.

Has Hinkie failed then? Probably not. He still has a bunch of young prospects and a high chance of landing Harry Giles. Same again next year? No problem, he still has a bunch of young prospects and a high chance of landing... Whoever is good in 2018.

Bill Simmons mentioned this on his podcast a lot of times, but Hinkie has somehow managed to create the perfect GM pyramid scheme. No matter how long the rebuild takes, you can't possibly pin it on him because the Sixers will always have great assets and lots of hope.

In the mean time, every year they do this the organization continues to leak respectability to their fans, around the league - and perhaps most importantly - with players and agents. Hinkie has the perfect plan for a video game, but in real life, these sorts of things do matter.

I'm not saying it's impossible for the Sixers to succeed from here, but in my opinion the benefits won't end up outweighing the costs in the end.

[celticsclay]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.

I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.

I think it is pretty easy to declare that Payton on a rookie contract skill is a better asset than Saric coming over on a veteran level contract. I don't really think that is very debatable. If their team right now was Gordon, Peyton, Noel and Okafor I think people could feel a lot more excited.

Are you also saying there is a non-zero chance Noel decides he has enough of this circus environment and leaves after his qualifying  year?

The Sixers were actually going to take Saric at 10.  They called the Magic at the last minute and traded back to 12 to take Saric and in the process got a 2015 2nd and their own 1st round pick back that Orlando had received in the Howard trade. 

In other words they got the player they wanted and a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.

If you want anyone to take your viewpoints seriously on the 76ers you can't just blindly defend every single thing they have ever done and never ever be critical. I don't think what they are doing is going to work overall, but I can at least say some of their moves were good to great. To give examples

1) I think the dump of holiday was a great trade
2) I think Noel was a great pick for where they got him
3) I think Bob Covington was a great find as a rotation player out of nowhere
4) I think the opportunity to swap picks with a historical terrible franchise for a salary dump (sac) was a really good deal

On the other hand my opinion is that okafor was a bad pick for their roster balance. I think if they knew that they were not going to get Saric for 3-4 years they wouldn't have drafted him (especially coupled with reports that his highly involved dad blocks the 76ers from drafting him). I think it has been a mistake for development to have zero quality veteran players on the team.

If you want anyone to take you seriously, you should probably acknowledge some of the poor moves they have made and stop being the one man fan club of their awful awful role players.

Only thing I'll comment on is in reply to you saying Okafor was a bad pick for their roster balance.   Porzingus looks good, but he seemed like a much riskier pick there...  Okafor was a safe bet.  Who gives a crap about roster balance at this point.  THey will tank another season and sell off the least desirable bigs to the highest bidder... and you can be [dang] sure there will be serious bids. 

Dudes, Okafor is 19 years old, 6'11 275 pounds and averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 1.6 blocks with 47% shooting.   Think about that for a second.   Boston's best asset is a 21 year old who is currently out indefinitely with an injury and is averaging 9 points on 32%/24%/60% shooting in his second year.   

Hinkie's "plan" is pretty straight-forward.  Land top 10 picks and try to get a superstar.  Boston has 1 of those players (Smart) and everyone here is ga-ga over him... Philly has multiple.  Their best prospect is better than our best prospect.  Their best pick is better than our best pick.   We have more role players.  Role players aren't hard to come by.   Philly should address their needs down the line.  Right now it doesn't matter.

Larbrd my comment was at moronis not you. While we have a different view on how good Okafor is, and you are a bit higher on some of there players (and probably their chance of success as a whole), you have at least criticized a few of their moves and been willing to have a discussion on things. Despite his age, Okafor was viewed as very physically mature and someone that could come in score some right off the bat. His rebounding numbers are actually pretty bad if you look at the advanced metrics. I wouldn't get so caught up in the basic raw numbers on him. 

[LarBrd33]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

If fails if/when their assets bust or end up leaving them with nothing in free agency.

Noel and Okafor aren't busts.  Both of those guys are arguably more valuable assets than any one piece on Boston.   They are stuck under contract for a few more years at least. 

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Embiid might be a bust, but that's just one part of it.  If he's healthy, he'll make an impact.  Whether he's Big Z or Oden remains to be seen. 

Can't judge whether or not tanking this year was worth it until we see what they end up with in this draft.   I mean... based on what people around here claim the Brooklyn pick is worth, I'd say Philly made the right decision to tank.

Can't judge whether or not they were better off hanging onto MCW or trading it for the Lakers pick until we see what that Lakers pick conveys.

All that said, if they are still in tank mode next season, I'll be surprised.  I don't think they intended to be in lose mode this season, but had to shift gears.  They are playing this smart... they hold lots of assets and aren't going to sell them cheap on account of "fit".  THey'll deal with the Noel/Embiid/Okafor log jam when it's time.  Next season I expect them to make the most of their assets and cap space and try to put a competitive team on the floor.   They could fail at that.  I'm interested to see what they do.

[oldtype]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

If fails if/when their assets bust or end up leaving them with nothing in free agency.

Noel and Okafor aren't busts.  Both of those guys are arguably more valuable assets than any one piece on Boston.   They are stuck under contract for a few more years at least. 

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Embiid might be a bust, but that's just one part of it.  If he's healthy, he'll make an impact.  Whether he's Big Z or Oden remains to be seen. 

Can't judge whether or not tanking this year was worth it until we see what they end up with in this draft.   I mean... based on what people around here claim the Brooklyn pick is worth, I'd say Philly made the right decision to tank.

Can't judge whether or not they were better off hanging onto MCW or trading it for the Lakers pick until we see what that Lakers pick conveys.

All that said, if they are still in tank mode next season, I'll be surprised.  I don't think they intended to be in lose mode this season, but had to shift gears.  They are playing this smart... they hold lots of assets and aren't going to sell them cheap on account of "fit".  THey'll deal with the Noel/Embiid/Okafor log jam when it's time.  Next season I expect them to make the most of their assets and cap space and try to put a competitive team on the floor.   They could fail at that.  I'm interested to see what they do.

But even if they're in tank mode again next season, they still have better assets than the Celtics and still have a top 5 pick coming up again. How is that any different from this season? Is there some sort of time limit you have in mind on how long Hinkie can continue to do this?

[Eddie20]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Actually, no.

According to Article VIII Section 2 of the CBA, if a first round draft pick does not sign with the team that holds his draft rights within 3 years following the draft that he was selected in, he can negotiate a contract (of 3+ years in length) greater than 120% of the rookie scale contract, presuming the team that holds his rights has the cap space to do so.

[LarBrd33]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

If fails if/when their assets bust or end up leaving them with nothing in free agency.

Noel and Okafor aren't busts.  Both of those guys are arguably more valuable assets than any one piece on Boston.   They are stuck under contract for a few more years at least. 

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Embiid might be a bust, but that's just one part of it.  If he's healthy, he'll make an impact.  Whether he's Big Z or Oden remains to be seen. 

Can't judge whether or not tanking this year was worth it until we see what they end up with in this draft.   I mean... based on what people around here claim the Brooklyn pick is worth, I'd say Philly made the right decision to tank.

Can't judge whether or not they were better off hanging onto MCW or trading it for the Lakers pick until we see what that Lakers pick conveys.

All that said, if they are still in tank mode next season, I'll be surprised.  I don't think they intended to be in lose mode this season, but had to shift gears.  They are playing this smart... they hold lots of assets and aren't going to sell them cheap on account of "fit".  THey'll deal with the Noel/Embiid/Okafor log jam when it's time.  Next season I expect them to make the most of their assets and cap space and try to put a competitive team on the floor.   They could fail at that.  I'm interested to see what they do.

But even if they're in tank mode again next season, they still have better assets than the Celtics and still have a top 5 pick coming up again. How is that any different from this season? Is there some sort of time limit you have in mind on how long Hinkie can continue to do this?

I think at some point the talent has to catch up.   Best-case scenario, they could be looking at an influx of Embiid, Saric, Ben Simmons, #4 pick via the Lakers (Ingram?), and two more 1st rounders (via Miami and OKC) ... as well as whoever they decide to sign with their cap space... That's a lot of talent to add next to two guys who I already feel are better assets than anyone Boston has (Noel and Embiid)...   Then if a couple of the guys they are throwing out there show some sign of life (Stauskas, Wroten, Marshall, Grant?), it's just a bonus...   At some point, it might be hard to throw away another season.     Also imagine it will be difficult to get the fans to buy in.  Philly fans seem to get what this process is about, but you can only expect them to be so patient. 

Here's my thing on this though... and this dates back well before Hinkie took over Philly and started this crazy plan.

Say Team 1 hovers around as a 35-45 win team for 15 years straight.

Say Team 2 goes 0-82 for three years followed by a couple years of 35-45... followed by 55-65 wins for the next decade.   

Which would you rather have?   I don't think Philly ever intended to be contending in 2015 when they traded away Jrue Holiday...   If they are still a bottomfeeder team two years from now, that's probably concerning.

[tazzmaniac]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail? No matter how many years the rebuild takes, they'll always have amazing assets by definition if only because they have their own pick every year.

Imagine if they miss out on Ben Simmons this year, draft Skal Labissiere (who turns out to be okay but not fantastic), and end up substantially in the same position as they are now by the start of next season.

Has Hinkie failed then? Probably not. He still has a bunch of young prospects and a high chance of landing Harry Giles. Same again next year? No problem, he still has a bunch of young prospects and a high chance of landing... Whoever is good in 2018.

Bill Simmons mentioned this on his podcast a lot of times, but Hinkie has somehow managed to create the perfect GM pyramid scheme. No matter how long the rebuild takes, you can't possibly pin it on him because the Sixers will always have great assets and lots of hope.

In the mean time, every year they do this the organization continues to leak respectability to their fans, around the league - and perhaps most importantly - with players and agents. Hinkie has the perfect plan for a video game, but in real life, these sorts of things do matter.

I'm not saying it's impossible for the Sixers to succeed from here, but in my opinion the benefits won't end up outweighing the costs in the end.

The Sixer's owner will decide if, and when, Hinkie's plan has failed.  Hinkie said up front that the plan would take several years.   Here are a couple Hinkie quotes on his philosophy. 

"We're focused on how to put the building blocks in place that have a chance to compete in May. Those teams win in the high-50s. They don't win in the teens and they don't add two or three wins a year and they don't add a win a month for a little while to try and get to where they're going. They get all the way to the 50s. And they get there usually on the backs of great players. We are still — as much as I've talked about how we make decisions and as much as I've talked about our organizational goals and our player development — it is a players-driven league, still. When we have a set of players that can carry us deep, that's the only way, that's the only way to get where we're going."

"We will not bat a thousand on every single draft pick. We also have them by the bushelful, in part, because of that. We don't have any hubris that we will get them all right. We're not certain that we have an enormous edge over anybody else. In some cases, we might not have an edge at all."

http://www.businessinsider.com/sam-hinkie-explains-sixers-tanking-plan-2015-2 

[tazzmaniac]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Actually, no.

According to Article VIII Section 2 of the CBA, if a first round draft pick does not sign with the team that holds his draft rights within 3 years following the draft that he was selected in, he can negotiate a contract (of 3+ years in length) greater than 120% of the rookie scale contract, presuming the team that holds his rights has the cap space to do so.

Actually, yes if Saric comes over next season like he stated recently that he would.  He'll have to stay in Europe an additional year for the rule you quote to apply. 

[Eddie20]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Based on this definition of the plan, how could Hinkie ever possibly fail?

Saric will start his rookie contract when he arrives.  Obviously too early to tell if they were better off taking Elfrid.

Actually, no.

According to Article VIII Section 2 of the CBA, if a first round draft pick does not sign with the team that holds his draft rights within 3 years following the draft that he was selected in, he can negotiate a contract (of 3+ years in length) greater than 120% of the rookie scale contract, presuming the team that holds his rights has the cap space to do so.

Actually, yes if Saric comes over next season like he stated recently that he would.  He'll have to stay in Europe an additional year for the rule you quote to apply.

Attention to detail. LB said he'll be under his rookie scale deal when he arrives, which is not correct.

I wouldn't take what Saric says too seriously. It makes no monetary sense. Better to spend one more year in Europe, for more money, and being free to negotiate a deal thereafter than bogged down under a limited rookie scale contract for years. Saric has all the leverage, even if his scouting report recently has been lackluster.