Sixers plan being questioned again

[LarBrd33]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

[Moranis]

They do have a nice little base that has been there awhile.  Wroten, Thompson, and Noel were all rookies the first year (Noel didn't play that year).  Covington, Sampson, and Grant were brought in last year (Canaan came over mid-season). 

How many minutes have Wroten, Thompson, Covington, and Noel actually gotten to play together, though?

Wroten has been hurt, but the other three have played quite a bit together (Sampson and Grant as well).

That does make some sense, because the few times I've actually seen those guys on the floor together, the Sixers resemble something like an NBA team, at least offensively.

It strikes me that none of those guys really has the skillset to make teammates better, though.  Wroten is a gunner, Thompson is strictly a shooter, Covington is a somewhat more versatile 3-and-D(ish) wing. Sampson and Grant are kind of more athletic, less skilled versions of Covington.

They've brought in McConnell and Marshall, which is a good sign since those guys actually thrive at getting teammates involved.  But they're both in the Phil Pressey tier of utter futility in terms of defense and scoring.


I guess my point is, I don't see why the Sixers can't tank while also trying to find underappreciated role players like Jae Crowder / KJ McDaniels / Jordan Clarkson etc. and actually integrate them into their rotation so that there's a structure in place for whoever they end up tabbing as their building blocks.  Instead, they just kind of cycle through guys and trade them off as soon as they generate any trade value.

well they had McDaniels who they drafted in the 2nd round and then moved him for value before they had to pay him big dollars (and he has barely played in Houston, so it looks like they made the right move).  They have been looking for players like that and found a few that seem like they will have long careers on a NBA bench (covington, grant, and thompson and maybe Sampson).  Others are out of the league.  Could they try it with more established players, probably, but they are looking for homeruns, which if your team is going to be bad, makes some sense.

[guava_wrench]

I'm thinking their strategy might be "let's be horrible until we land a superstar". It isn't clear that they are concerned about making the most of who they have if they aren't convinced they won't be great. People talk about their many completely replaceable young players as if these guys are something better than average young talent. Outside of their 3 bigs, is there much of a point in anyone else?

The advantage we have over the Sixers is our players may end up with more value as they are part of team success.

[LarBrd33]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

[celticsclay]

They do have a nice little base that has been there awhile.  Wroten, Thompson, and Noel were all rookies the first year (Noel didn't play that year).  Covington, Sampson, and Grant were brought in last year (Canaan came over mid-season). 

How many minutes have Wroten, Thompson, Covington, and Noel actually gotten to play together, though?

Don't let him suck you into his world of hyping Thompson.

Also don't look now but Hollis 'would play 10 minutes on the warriors' Thompson is seeing his shooting decline for the 3rd straight year while doubling his turnovers per game. Is he even in the league next year?

Shooting decline?  He went 0-3 in the last game and went from 40.6% to 38.8%.  That 40.6% would be a career high.  This early in the year, one bad game and the shooting percentage fluctuates a great deal.  His turnovers are up though.

  He is shooting 36% from the field for the year. He is not a good player. Are you his agent? Are you him?

[celticsclay]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.

I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.

I think it is pretty easy to declare that Payton on a rookie contract skill is a better asset than Saric coming over on a veteran level contract. I don't really think that is very debatable. If their team right now was Gordon, Peyton, Noel and Okafor I think people could feel a lot more excited.

Are you also saying there is a non-zero chance Noel decides he has enough of this circus environment and leaves after his qualifying  year?

[Moranis]

They do have a nice little base that has been there awhile.  Wroten, Thompson, and Noel were all rookies the first year (Noel didn't play that year).  Covington, Sampson, and Grant were brought in last year (Canaan came over mid-season). 

How many minutes have Wroten, Thompson, Covington, and Noel actually gotten to play together, though?

Don't let him suck you into his world of hyping Thompson.

Also don't look now but Hollis 'would play 10 minutes on the warriors' Thompson is seeing his shooting decline for the 3rd straight year while doubling his turnovers per game. Is he even in the league next year?

Shooting decline?  He went 0-3 in the last game and went from 40.6% to 38.8%.  That 40.6% would be a career high.  This early in the year, one bad game and the shooting percentage fluctuates a great deal.  His turnovers are up though.

  He is shooting 36% from the field for the year. He is not a good player. Are you his agent? Are you him?

He is in the league for his 3 point shooting.

[Moranis]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.

I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.

I think it is pretty easy to declare that Payton on a rookie contract skill is a better asset than Saric coming over on a veteran level contract. I don't really think that is very debatable. If their team right now was Gordon, Peyton, Noel and Okafor I think people could feel a lot more excited.

Are you also saying there is a non-zero chance Noel decides he has enough of this circus environment and leaves after his qualifying  year?

The Sixers were actually going to take Saric at 10.  They called the Magic at the last minute and traded back to 12 to take Saric and in the process got a 2015 2nd and their own 1st round pick back that Orlando had received in the Howard trade. 

In other words they got the player they wanted and a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.

[Timdawgg]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.


I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.   Could they move Okafor for Avery Bradley and Sully right now?  Seems highly likely to me.   Could a good GM turn this into a 35-40 win team next year?  Yes.  If they want to be impatient and flip their prospects for vets, I'm sure they could be mildly competitive.  But you never know with these young guys... they might be competitive with just a few small moves and signings... and then it becomes interesting, because they have pick-swap rights with the Kings which puts them in interesting situation if they end up being solid while the Kings struggle... Similar to what Boston has going with Brooklyn.

Excellent points LarBrd33.  I don't think their plan was to punt this year but the circumstances forced the issue.

[Vermont Green]

If Embiid comes back and plays in the neighborhood of his original promise, they are stacked with assets.  The roster is not real balanced but that is easy enough to fix.

What is even more amazing is that even if Embiid doesn't come back and he never plays again (total worst case), they are not all that bad off.  They will add another top pick this year plus the Lakers pick either this year or next.

I am not saying they will contend for titles right away of course but they will have talent.

[celticsclay]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.

I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.

I think it is pretty easy to declare that Payton on a rookie contract skill is a better asset than Saric coming over on a veteran level contract. I don't really think that is very debatable. If their team right now was Gordon, Peyton, Noel and Okafor I think people could feel a lot more excited.

Are you also saying there is a non-zero chance Noel decides he has enough of this circus environment and leaves after his qualifying  year?

The Sixers were actually going to take Saric at 10.  They called the Magic at the last minute and traded back to 12 to take Saric and in the process got a 2015 2nd and their own 1st round pick back that Orlando had received in the Howard trade. 

In other words they got the player they wanted and a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.

If you want anyone to take your viewpoints seriously on the 76ers you can't just blindly defend every single thing they have ever done and never ever be critical. I don't think what they are doing is going to work overall, but I can at least say some of their moves were good to great. To give examples

1) I think the dump of holiday was a great trade
2) I think Noel was a great pick for where they got him
3) I think Bob Covington was a great find as a rotation player out of nowhere
4) I think the opportunity to swap picks with a historical terrible franchise for a salary dump (sac) was a really good deal

On the other hand my opinion is that okafor was a bad pick for their roster balance. I think if they knew that they were not going to get Saric for 3-4 years they wouldn't have drafted him (especially coupled with reports that his highly involved dad blocks the 76ers from drafting him). I think it has been a mistake for development to have zero quality veteran players on the team.

If you want anyone to take you seriously, you should probably acknowledge some of the poor moves they have made and stop being the one man fan club of their awful awful role players.

[SHAQATTACK]

Waiting

Waiting

Waiting

Waiting

Years go by

MJ. 2.0.   Still not shown up

Will they ever play ball to win?

Turrible. way to treat ticket buying fans . 

[mctyson]

I feel like this article is based on nothing but an overreaction about Porzingis and Okafor.

Absolutely not.  The author clearly identifies that Hinkie's ability to draft the right guy is a major concern.  Noel and Embiid both have huge question marks, Embiid more so as he may never physically withstand an NBA season.  Noel has clear offensive deficiencies that any average scout could see.  For both players, this information was available prior to the draft. 

I disagree with the author and how he uses luck as an excuse for the Sixers.  The whole freaking point of the lottery it to dissuade teams from tanking by implementing "luck of the draw" in draft pick assignment.  You can improve odds but you can't solidify, and there is risk in tanking.  When the balls don't fall your way, you can't cry that you were "unlucky" because you chose this strategy knowing the risks. 

I hate what the Sixers are doing.

[tazzmaniac]

Eventually fan support will decline .

It'll be a rough season for them.  But unless they want to try to immediately trade Embiid and Saric for whatever they can get, it makes the most sense to tank right now.   The focus should be on seeing if one of their players like Stauskas, Wroten, or Grant can develop into a real NBA player... while trying their best to develop Noel and Okafor.   Those are the only guys who seem like they will have very productive NBA careers.   The losing will get grating... morale might bottom out.  But this season doesn't matter.

If they are tanking again next year, that's a problem.    Next year they should have Noel, Okafor, maybe a couple rotation guys who made names for themselves, whatever their top projected pick ends up, whatever they get with the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top 3, Miami's 1st, Oklahoma's 1st, presumably Saric, presumably Embiid...   

That's an insanely young group, but it will represent actual talent (not the d-leaguers making up their roster right now)... Then based on that roster they can decide to make some moves for fit (probably have to move one of Okafor or Noel regardless if Embiid returns), decide who they want to spend their 80ish million in cap space on to fill out the roster.... and probably shift away from tank mode.   It's reasonable that they could look like the Orlando Magic next year.

THey just need to power through this year.   It's going to be ugly by design.   The only risk they run is Noel or Okafor flipping out and forcing Philly's hand to move them before it's time.

It's clearly not a popular opinion around here, but I'd say that Hinkie has done a really fine job following his plan up until this point.  Maybe they initially envisioned 2 years of tanking, but it's been extended.

Step 1:  Recognition that the team wasn't going to compete.  The Bynum gamble had busted.  Standard strategy of trading everyone for draft picks and cap space.

Step 2:   One draft day in June 2013, they go ahead and trade their star PG, Jrue HOliday, for Nerlens NOel (then injured, but seen as the best prospect in the draft) and a future 1st.   I was jealous of this move.  Check the draft thread and you'll see me freaking out about Noel slipping and begging Ainge to trade Rondo for him.   Hinkie made a baller move there... he got a prospect who would likely be better than Holiday in the long run, another top 1st... and was setting his team up for tanking.  It ensured a top pick in 2014.  Kinda like getting 3 for 1.

Step 3:  Injured Embiid slips to #3.  Obvious choice as he was seen as "by far" the best prospect when healthy leading up to the draft.  They could have traded down and taken Smart + additional assets.  They likely tried trading up to get Wiggins, Parker.  But with Embiid as the option, it once again made the most sense to extend the tank another season.  With the draft pick they got in the Holiday/Noel deal, they selected Elfrid Payton with the #10 pick.   Since tanking made the most sense, they traded Payton for Dario Saric (taken #12) and a future 2nd and 1st.   Bad move?  Would they have been better off taking Aaron Gordon at #3 and keeping Payton at #10?  Perhaps... but they wanted to bottom out again and keep the asset train going.  It was bold, but I understand it.


Step 4:  By design, they had no hope in competing in 2014.  Just to be sure, they traded away their highly overrated "star PG", Michael Carter Williams, for a future 1st from the Lakers.   That pick will convey this year if it falls outside the Top 3... otherwise it's unprotected next year.   Once again, intentionally setting the team up for failure.    Instead of having Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and MCW, they pushed all assets out a year by having Embiid, Saric and the Lakers pick.


Step 5:  They may have felt this year was the one they were going to compete finally.  Embiid was on his way back.  Saric was probably coming from overseas.  The lakers pick would have conveyed if it fell outside the top 7.   They had cap space and were going to offer max deals to guys like Tobias Harris.   They expected DeAngelo Russell to be their pick at #3... they would have had an interesting lineup of Russell, Saric, who they took with the Laker pick, Noel and Embiid, then whoever they spent money on (harris?).   Embiid's need for a bone graft threw a wrench in it.  Saric was staying overseas another year.   I think the team reluctantly decided to push out the tank one final season.   Luckily, Okafor fell to them at #3.  Would they rather have Russell right now?  Probably not.    Okafor is a legit 20/10 candidate... widely seen as the best prospect for much of the year until Towns lapped him.   Are people going to claim they messed up by passing on Kristaps for Okafor?  C'mon...   That's silly.     They likely could have traded one of Okafor or Noel on draft day for an impact guard prospect like Marcus Smart, but why even bother?   Give those guys 30+ minutes per night, let the team bottom out, and try again next year. 

So maybe they could have done things slightly differently, but unless you're being thick, you have to see the logic there.   They now have the highest odds in the league of landing Ben Simmons and it's not like they have zero assets.   

- Embiid (if he returns from his bone graft... which i suspect he will)
- Noel (would command a hefty return)
- Okafor (would clearly command a hefty return)
- Saric (should still be a fine prospect)
- Their #1 - Ben simmons?
- Lakers pick if it falls outside the top 3
- OKC's 1st
- Miami's 1st

+ maybe someone like Stauskas, Wroten, Grant develops into something... they have to be seen on the same level of the Rozier's, Hunter's and Mickeys of the world.

I'm sorry, but you can't call a "plan" a failure when the plan is in the process of being executed.  I say Hinkie has done a darn good job executing his plan... the ol "3 to 5 year" declaration... he started in 2013 and now it's 2015...  He's doing it in a shameless way, but the team is set up really well for future moves.   The question is, will he succeed at the next stage?   Next year the process of turning those assets into a team will begin.  I don't know if he'll be successful at that...  but I know that a good GM could turn those assets into a decent team really quickly.

I think it is pretty easy to declare that Payton on a rookie contract skill is a better asset than Saric coming over on a veteran level contract. I don't really think that is very debatable. If their team right now was Gordon, Peyton, Noel and Okafor I think people could feel a lot more excited.

Are you also saying there is a non-zero chance Noel decides he has enough of this circus environment and leaves after his qualifying  year?

The Sixers were actually going to take Saric at 10.  They called the Magic at the last minute and traded back to 12 to take Saric and in the process got a 2015 2nd and their own 1st round pick back that Orlando had received in the Howard trade. 

In other words they got the player they wanted and a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.

Add to that, Saric has been quoted recently stating that he would be playing in the NBA next season.  If he doesn't change his mind, he would end up being on a rookie contract. 

[jdz101]

Well I started the "Is this years Sixers the worst NBA squad ever?" thread and i'm yet to be strongly convinced otherwise by their play.

With that said we'll probably be the first team to lose to them this year.