Sixers plan being questioned again

[footey]

there strategy seems to be: let's tank and draft the best bigs talent available for several years. In order to tank effectively, let's make sure we sign the worst possible guards.  Without decent guards, we will continue to finish in the basement. Once we stockpile enough bigs, we can then work trades for all star guards, and put together a kick butt team.

It seems they are exactly where they want to be. Particularly since Embiid is an unknown at this point.

[Moranis]

Whatever side you fall on all of this, you have to admit this has to be worse than even they thought it would be. If Okafor and Noel and the 76ers are on ESPN as a lead story every night (and it is only going to intensify) that is really bad psychologically. If they can even win 5 games so they can sneak in with the pelicans, nets and other bad teams, I think that is a lot less damaging.

I'm sure they thought they'd have secured a cornerstone like Towns or Wiggins by now.  Like the article says, all rebuilds require some good luck to get off the ground -- even rebuilds that have been engineered to maximize the odds via tanking. 

The Sixers have not enjoyed that good luck yet.  Arguably, they've enjoyed an inordinate amount of bad luck, though I think some of that is a result of their willingness to make riskier draft selections and trades in service of their goal of acquiring the highest ceiling assets.

I was referring to them being winless at this point. If they had won 1 game or 2 game they would not be under such a microscope right now, but rather just another bad team. The longer this goes on the more pressure they will receive.

I agree with that, although didn't they start 0-14 last year?  If anything it seems like the pieces on the team fit worse this year than last, even though they might have more talent on the roster.

Part of that is the injuries to the only two competent PG's on the roster. 

[PhoSita]

From the ESPN power rankings:

the Sixers, who are now 37-141 in the Hinkie Era, having suited up 49 players in those two-plus seasons.

More than anything else, this might be the biggest reason for their continued struggles, and the surest sign that management is 0% interested in building a team that can compete in the present.

Talent matters most in the NBA, but if you give a decent coach time to build up a group of players, no matter how overmatched they might be against most opponents, that team will find a way to win some games.  The Sixers have had a revolving door at most every spot in their rotation, though, and that's why they're every bit as bad today as they were a few years ago when they began this tanking journey.

The Sixers aren't just intent on tanking to get top talent -- they're also completely uninterested in developing a cast of role players that actually knows how to play together.  As soon as a guy develops some kind of value, the Sixers look into trading him.  The problem, of course, is that none of these guys ever gets comfortable, and the coach must feel like any attempt to actually coach this team is more or less futile.

It really makes things tougher for the star prospects they bring in, too, because they don't have a support system of role players who know how to run an actual offensive or defensive system.  The Sixers aren't equipped to cover their best players' weaknesses and enhance their best players' strengths.  That's why Jahlil Okafor looks like a complete disaster on defense and Nerlens Noel is can't do much better than 40% from the field. 

[Eddie20]

Whatever side you fall on all of this, you have to admit this has to be worse than even they thought it would be. If Okafor and Noel and the 76ers are on ESPN as a lead story every night (and it is only going to intensify) that is really bad psychologically. If they can even win 5 games so they can sneak in with the pelicans, nets and other bad teams, I think that is a lot less damaging.

I'm sure they thought they'd have secured a cornerstone like Towns or Wiggins by now.  Like the article says, all rebuilds require some good luck to get off the ground -- even rebuilds that have been engineered to maximize the odds via tanking. 

The Sixers have not enjoyed that good luck yet.  Arguably, they've enjoyed an inordinate amount of bad luck, though I think some of that is a result of their willingness to make riskier draft selections and trades in service of their goal of acquiring the highest ceiling assets.

I was referring to them being winless at this point. If they had won 1 game or 2 game they would not be under such a microscope right now, but rather just another bad team. The longer this goes on the more pressure they will receive.

I agree with that, although didn't they start 0-14 last year?  If anything it seems like the pieces on the team fit worse this year than last, even though they might have more talent on the roster.

Isn't that Hinkie's fault though? The Sixers had options at #3. The Knicks were reportedly not high on Porzingis, but were enamored with Okafor. Couldn't they have swapped and received another asset or two in the process? If not, they could've still selected Porzingis, who's shooting and ability to space the floor, would've better complimented Noel. Or gone after Muiday, who would be the uptempo PG that the roster, except for Okafor, looks like it would do better with. Instead, they went after Okafor and as a result seem to have put both (he and Noel) in a position to NOT thrive. Again, they had options, but choose poorly.

I also hear that they'll just trade one of them. As if it were that simple. How many times does a team that is obviously looking to trade a player receive equal return value? Why is it a certainty that the team that tries to trade for either of them gives the Sixers what they feel is a fair return? What are the player target(s) that either one command? Are they looking for pick(s), which will only delay this masterful rebuild plan further? Will they settle for a deal even if they feel they're getting shorthchanged? Are they willing to hold off on making a deal? If so, for how long, all the while potentially stunting the growth of Okafor and Noel? What happens (huge) if Embiid ever returns?

Ford & Pelton had a good article on Okafor and the Sixers today...

With Okafor on the court, the Sixers are allowing 109.0 points per 100 possessions according to NBA.com/Stats, which would be tied for 28th in the league. When he's on the bench, Philadelphia's defensive rating improves to 96.9, which would rank second.

He also has been ineffective on the defensive glass. Okafor's 17.0 percent defensive rebound rate is far worse than league average for a center (22.8 percent) and the team has rebounded better with him on the bench.

I find the results from a preliminary version of ESPN's real plus-minus fascinating. While Okafor rates below-average defensively, which is especially problematic for a center given that big men tend to have more defensive value, his weaker rating is actually on offense. Okafor rates more than four points per 100 possessions worse than an average offensive player, which is counterintuitive given his impressive scoring.

Alas, Okafor isn't yet an efficient scorer. As impressive as he has been facing up and beating slower defenders off the dribble, Okafor has sometimes struggled to score against quality post defenders. He's shooting 44.3 percent in the post but turning the ball over on 16.4 percent of his post plays, according to Synergy Sports tracking, limiting the effectiveness of those plays.

The only justification I can really give for selecting Okafor is that Hinkie thought Okafor was the superior asset, that given his size and long history as a potential No. 1 guy, Hinkie believed he could fetch the highest price the fastest if he needed to move him.

The Sixers' rebuilding plan has been predicated on collecting the best assets -- not necessarily the best fits. The hope is that all those draft picks ultimately land them a couple of superstars, via trade or the draft. So far, the 76ers still aren't there. They have a couple of nice young players, but no obvious cornerstones on the roster yet unless Joel Embiid can return to health.

On a roster that includes Noel and Embiid, and would seem to want to play fast, it's not clear how Okafor fits for the long term. So if Hinkie felt that he could get a player or asset more valuable than Okafor, as he did when he shipped away Michael Carter-Williams one year removed from winning Rookie of the Year, I don't think he'd hesitate.

[PhoSita]

Isn't that Hinkie's fault though? The Sixers had options at #3. The Knicks were reportedly not high on Porzingis, but were enamored with Okafor. Couldn't they have swapped and received another asset or two in the process? If not, they could've still selected Porzingis, who's shooting and ability to space the floor, would've better complimented Noel. Or gone after Muiday, who would be the uptempo PG that the roster, except for Okafor, looks like it would do better with. Instead, they went after Okafor and as a result seem to have put both (he and Noel) in a position to NOT thrive. Again, they had options, but choose poorly.

I don't think Hinkie would agree that he chose poorly, though.  The Sixers intentionally ignore any concern about fit with the current roster and go after the guy they think has the highest ceiling, no matter what. 

Porzingis has looked good, but Okafor still probably has the higher ceiling if he can become an adequate team defender.  Scoring 20 points per game inside with any kind of efficiency for that Sixers team is a minor miracle.


I tend to agree with you, though -- going for the high ceiling is all good and well, but at some point you have to put an actual team on the floor and try to grow the players together.  Otherwise you've just got talented players who have never learned to play NBA basketball together.   They're completely wasting entire seasons that they could be spending teaching these guys a system and developing supporting players for whatever stars they eventually get in place. 

They will have to do all of that building up AFTER they finally get the guys they want in place, which means they might not be any good until guys like Noel and Okafor are well into their second contracts.

[PhoSita]

If the Sixers really would consider trading Okafor, would you think about trading the Nets' pick for him? 

I think Okafor could shine on a team like the Celtics -- lots of nice role players, good coaching, solid defensive system that doesn't rely on a single dominant post defender to be effective.

[Eddie20]

Isn't that Hinkie's fault though? The Sixers had options at #3. The Knicks were reportedly not high on Porzingis, but were enamored with Okafor. Couldn't they have swapped and received another asset or two in the process? If not, they could've still selected Porzingis, who's shooting and ability to space the floor, would've better complimented Noel. Or gone after Muiday, who would be the uptempo PG that the roster, except for Okafor, looks like it would do better with. Instead, they went after Okafor and as a result seem to have put both (he and Noel) in a position to NOT thrive. Again, they had options, but choose poorly.

I don't think Hinkie would agree that he chose poorly, though.  The Sixers intentionally ignore any concern about fit with the current roster and go after the guy they think has the highest ceiling, no matter what. 

Porzingis has looked good, but Okafor still probably has the higher ceiling if he can become an adequate team defender.  Scoring 20 points per game inside with any kind of efficiency for that Sixers team is a minor miracle.


I tend to agree with you, though -- going for the high ceiling is all good and well, but at some point you have to put an actual team on the floor and try to grow the players together.  Otherwise you've just got talented players who have never learned to play NBA basketball together.   They're completely wasting entire seasons that they could be spending teaching these guys a system and developing supporting players for whatever stars they eventually get in place. 

They will have to do all of that building up AFTER they finally get the guys they want in place, which means they might not be any good until guys like Noel and Okafor are well into their second contracts.

That's the biggest issue I have with it. Plenty of teams have allowed their young nucleus to grow together (OKC, Golden St, Washington, etc.), but did so with pieces that make sense together. What the Sixers are doing would be like the Wizards drafting Wall and then passing on Beal to take Lillard. While it could potentially work it would still put those players, in this case Wall and Lillard, in a unnatural position.

Noel is so awful offensively that in order to protect him he needs to be involved on numberous picks along the perimeter where he could use his mobilty to dive to the rim for lobs. However, now this is a non-factor because Okafor, a non-shooting big, occupies the space he would need. So this is Noel's 3rd year with the team, and the first year (injury) and this year (fit/role) offer a lack of progression.

Saric is another player, who's an awful fit. People don't realize that he's a playmaking 4 type, not a 3 because of his lack of athleticsm, that can't spread the floor either. I know, I know, they'll just trade him too.

[wdleehi]

Of course, by the time they might start turning it around, how many of these guys will be entering FA?   How many would be oh so happy to bolt. 



Who wants to play for a team that tanks so bad?  Who wants their name connected to that team? 

[BleedGreen1989]

Of course, by the time they might start turning it around, how many of these guys will be entering FA?   How many would be oh so happy to bolt. 



Who wants to play for a team that tanks so bad?  Who wants their name connected to that team?

This is one of the more understated flaws with Hinkie's plan. These guys are going to be up for big extensions before they've even attempted to learn how to win.

How funny would it be for Hinkie to pay all these kids only to have them become good, not great and end up back on the treadmill...

[Moranis]

From the ESPN power rankings:

the Sixers, who are now 37-141 in the Hinkie Era, having suited up 49 players in those two-plus seasons.

More than anything else, this might be the biggest reason for their continued struggles, and the surest sign that management is 0% interested in building a team that can compete in the present.

Talent matters most in the NBA, but if you give a decent coach time to build up a group of players, no matter how overmatched they might be against most opponents, that team will find a way to win some games.  The Sixers have had a revolving door at most every spot in their rotation, though, and that's why they're every bit as bad today as they were a few years ago when they began this tanking journey.

The Sixers aren't just intent on tanking to get top talent -- they're also completely uninterested in developing a cast of role players that actually knows how to play together.  As soon as a guy develops some kind of value, the Sixers look into trading him.  The problem, of course, is that none of these guys ever gets comfortable, and the coach must feel like any attempt to actually coach this team is more or less futile.

It really makes things tougher for the star prospects they bring in, too, because they don't have a support system of role players who know how to run an actual offensive or defensive system.  The Sixers aren't equipped to cover their best players' weaknesses and enhance their best players' strengths.  That's why Jahlil Okafor looks like a complete disaster on defense and Nerlens Noel is can't do much better than 40% from the field.

They do have a nice little base that has been there awhile.  Wroten, Thompson, and Noel were all rookies the first year (Noel didn't play that year).  Covington, Sampson, and Grant were brought in last year (Canaan came over mid-season).  Wroten has yet to play but the other 6 guys are all in the top 9 for mpg, the other three are Okafor and Stauskas, and then McConnell (who likely wouldn't be there if Wroten was healthy).  There is a lot of roster turnover from the other positions and injuries have affected things, but they do have a nice little base forming (albeit most of those guys should be bench players, not starter level players they are on Philly)

[PhoSita]

They do have a nice little base that has been there awhile.  Wroten, Thompson, and Noel were all rookies the first year (Noel didn't play that year).  Covington, Sampson, and Grant were brought in last year (Canaan came over mid-season). 

How many minutes have Wroten, Thompson, Covington, and Noel actually gotten to play together, though?

[celticsclay]

They do have a nice little base that has been there awhile.  Wroten, Thompson, and Noel were all rookies the first year (Noel didn't play that year).  Covington, Sampson, and Grant were brought in last year (Canaan came over mid-season). 

How many minutes have Wroten, Thompson, Covington, and Noel actually gotten to play together, though?

Don't let him suck you into his world of hyping Thompson.

Also don't look now but Hollis 'would play 10 minutes on the warriors' Thompson is seeing his shooting decline for the 3rd straight year while doubling his turnovers per game. Is he even in the league next year?

[Moranis]

They do have a nice little base that has been there awhile.  Wroten, Thompson, and Noel were all rookies the first year (Noel didn't play that year).  Covington, Sampson, and Grant were brought in last year (Canaan came over mid-season). 

How many minutes have Wroten, Thompson, Covington, and Noel actually gotten to play together, though?

Wroten has been hurt, but the other three have played quite a bit together (Sampson and Grant as well).

[Moranis]

They do have a nice little base that has been there awhile.  Wroten, Thompson, and Noel were all rookies the first year (Noel didn't play that year).  Covington, Sampson, and Grant were brought in last year (Canaan came over mid-season). 

How many minutes have Wroten, Thompson, Covington, and Noel actually gotten to play together, though?

Don't let him suck you into his world of hyping Thompson.

Also don't look now but Hollis 'would play 10 minutes on the warriors' Thompson is seeing his shooting decline for the 3rd straight year while doubling his turnovers per game. Is he even in the league next year?

Shooting decline?  He went 0-3 in the last game and went from 40.6% to 38.8%.  That 40.6% would be a career high.  This early in the year, one bad game and the shooting percentage fluctuates a great deal.  His turnovers are up though.

[PhoSita]

They do have a nice little base that has been there awhile.  Wroten, Thompson, and Noel were all rookies the first year (Noel didn't play that year).  Covington, Sampson, and Grant were brought in last year (Canaan came over mid-season). 

How many minutes have Wroten, Thompson, Covington, and Noel actually gotten to play together, though?

Wroten has been hurt, but the other three have played quite a bit together (Sampson and Grant as well).

That does make some sense, because the few times I've actually seen those guys on the floor together, the Sixers resemble something like an NBA team, at least offensively.

It strikes me that none of those guys really has the skillset to make teammates better, though.  Wroten is a gunner, Thompson is strictly a shooter, Covington is a somewhat more versatile 3-and-D(ish) wing. Sampson and Grant are kind of more athletic, less skilled versions of Covington.

They've brought in McConnell and Marshall, which is a good sign since those guys actually thrive at getting teammates involved.  But they're both in the Phil Pressey tier of utter futility in terms of defense and scoring.


I guess my point is, I don't see why the Sixers can't tank while also trying to find underappreciated role players like Jae Crowder / KJ McDaniels / Jordan Clarkson etc. and actually integrate them into their rotation so that there's a structure in place for whoever they end up tabbing as their building blocks.  Instead, they just kind of cycle through guys and trade them off as soon as they generate any trade value.