Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.

[LarBrd33]

Great post -- thanks!   I for one would like to see Sully playing about 4-5 more MPG.  I think that would assure a double-double average.   A solid double-double (14/11) in about 26-27 MPG would be impressive and attractive.

It would be kind of nice to showcase Sully with 30+ minutes just to see if he can put up his per-minute stats... then trade him.  But while you play Sully those kind of minutes, you're taking away minutes from the other guys that can contribute and hurting their trade value.   

[Vermont Green]

I don't get why people don't think Sullinger can sustain this level of play.  His statistical production is a little better than last year.  The "eye-test" for me sees a player more able to take command on the court than last year.  You expect young players to improve at least a little and usually more than a little each year.  I don't see this as a peak from which he is going to decline.  I think he is on the normal arch for a talented player that comes into the league very young.

I remain high on Sullinger.  I don't want to overpay for him when be becomes a free agent and I certainly don't want to see him walk for nothing, but I also don't want to trade him away unless it is a good deal.  It is not easy for GMs to navigate this but I see no need to rush and  force a trade.

[PhoSita]

I don't get why people don't think Sullinger can sustain this level of play.  His statistical production is a little better than last year.  The "eye-test" for me sees a player more able to take command on the court than last year. 

Sully's already started to come back to Earth in terms of his shooting.  In terms of production, that's the part of his start that seemed unsustainable to me.

The other thing that I'm still skeptical about is his ability to stay on the floor for the whole season.  History suggests he'll have difficulty with that.

His rebounding, passing, and solid defense all seem like things he can keep doing.

[guava_wrench]

One of these guys is obviously getting traded but I'll be darned if I can figure out which one.  You'd think it would be Lee or Amir but what team can take their salaries and offer anything of value?  It's not like Ainge needs any more mid to late first round picks and there's no roster space for any more projects.

Mike

Lee and Amir are both expiring contracts. The idea is that they would be useful as salary filler when targeting a star.  They both are contributors, though.   You might be able to move Bradley (he makes like 8-9 mil) and a handful of rookie contracts to match salary for a star, but it's hard to imagine getting anyone significant without moving one of Lee or Amir in the deal.

Expiring contracts have little value with the cap increasing.

The value of Amir's deal is the team option. The team holds all the cards.

[LarBrd33]

I don't get why people don't think Sullinger can sustain this level of play.  His statistical production is a little better than last year.  The "eye-test" for me sees a player more able to take command on the court than last year. 

Sully's already started to come back to Earth in terms of his shooting.  In terms of production, that's the part of his start that seemed unsustainable to me.

The other thing that I'm still skeptical about is his ability to stay on the floor for the whole season.  History suggests he'll have difficulty with that.

His rebounding, passing, and solid defense all seem like things he can keep doing.

You think Sully would average 2 steals and 1.2 blocks if given 36 minutes all season?  That doesn't seem sustainable to me either.

[guava_wrench]

You can't extrapolate from per 36 stats because we play a high energy game. Guys cannot sustain that with more minutes, so they will perform less as they get tired late or save energy early.

[LarBrd33]

You can't extrapolate from per 36 stats because we play a high energy game. Guys cannot sustain that with more minutes, so they will perform less as they get tired late or save energy early.

True.  Have to take it with a grain of salt.   That and matchups, small sample sizes, who they share the court with, etc.  But it's interesting to look at the numbers nonetheless.   I think 1 through 7 has a lot of parity.  Sully is seen as the best (12 games in... at the start of the season people were ready to dump him for candy corn), but it seems to me you could move him and not take much of a hit at the bigs.

[Vermont Green]

I don't get why people don't think Sullinger can sustain this level of play.  His statistical production is a little better than last year.  The "eye-test" for me sees a player more able to take command on the court than last year. 

Sully's already started to come back to Earth in terms of his shooting.  In terms of production, that's the part of his start that seemed unsustainable to me.

The other thing that I'm still skeptical about is his ability to stay on the floor for the whole season.  History suggests he'll have difficulty with that.

His rebounding, passing, and solid defense all seem like things he can keep doing.

You think Sully would average 2 steals and 1.2 blocks if given 36 minutes all season?  That doesn't seem sustainable to me either.

I don't think Sullinger will sustain every individual statistical of course but neither would anyone we trade with.  I think in general, he can sustain this level of play; score consistently (but not 45% from 3 or whatever it is so far), continue to be a rebounding force, and in general be a high BBIQ (for a big) player.

Durability is the bigger concern.  I think people forget how hard it is to go from 32 games to 82 games for these young players so you have to allow for an adjustment period but durability is a legitimate concern with Sullinger.  I am only slightly more worried about Sullinger's durability than I would be for the average (average in terms of durability) NBA player at his age.

[LarBrd33]

I think sully is due for some bad games... He's a nice player but not as good as he's been playing.

Or maybe he is... He's still really young.

[PhoSita]

I don't get why people don't think Sullinger can sustain this level of play.  His statistical production is a little better than last year.  The "eye-test" for me sees a player more able to take command on the court than last year. 

Sully's already started to come back to Earth in terms of his shooting.  In terms of production, that's the part of his start that seemed unsustainable to me.

The other thing that I'm still skeptical about is his ability to stay on the floor for the whole season.  History suggests he'll have difficulty with that.

His rebounding, passing, and solid defense all seem like things he can keep doing.

You think Sully would average 2 steals and 1.2 blocks if given 36 minutes all season?  That doesn't seem sustainable to me either.

Good point.

The team as a whole is playing above their heads in terms of forcing turnovers.

[Ilikesports17]

I don't get why people don't think Sullinger can sustain this level of play.  His statistical production is a little better than last year.  The "eye-test" for me sees a player more able to take command on the court than last year. 

Sully's already started to come back to Earth in terms of his shooting.  In terms of production, that's the part of his start that seemed unsustainable to me.

The other thing that I'm still skeptical about is his ability to stay on the floor for the whole season.  History suggests he'll have difficulty with that.

His rebounding, passing, and solid defense all seem like things he can keep doing.

You think Sully would average 2 steals and 1.2 blocks if given 36 minutes all season?  That doesn't seem sustainable to me either.

Good point.

The team as a whole is playing above their heads in terms of forcing turnovers.

Ive always felt steals arent a great indicator of how good a player is at defense. I think the blocks are actually sustainable so long as he stays in shape. The steals have been a product of a lot of luck in terms of balls bouncing his way and the fact that he plays on a team with really good perimeter players who force a lot of bad passes and loose ball.

I dont think Sully is a 2 steals per 36 good at D, but I think he can continue to play pretty good D.