Author Topic: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.  (Read 2104 times)

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Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« on: November 21, 2015, 05:17:28 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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You have to take Per-36 numbers with a grain of salt, because of small sample sizes and match-ups, but I think it's interesting in this case, because we have a handful of decent players who can clearly play and not enough minutes to play them all. 

It also gives you a hint of what these guys could potentially do if given enough minutes.  The most any of our bigs are playing this year is 24 minutes.  It's hard for a player to 'break out" and look like an all-star candidate if they are being limited to 24 minutes.  But it's also hard for any of our bigs to get more than 24 minutes cuz there's too [dang] many of them.   Could one of these guys averaged 20 and 10 if given 36 minutes per game?  Would that make them super valuable in a trade?   

It was interesting in previous seasons when we had Bass, Sully and Olynyk all playing at roughly the same level with minutes adjusted.  This year, we have even more bigs.  So let's look at early season results.

Player Stats Adjusted to 36 minutes:

Sully (24.3 minutes): 16.5 points, 13 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.9 steals, 1.2 blocks, 47%/37%/75%   -  Holy crap that's outstanding.   If a player was actually averaging that in 36 minutes, he'd be in consideration as an all-star.   This is one of the main reasons I started a thread suggesting that now might be a good time to sell Sully while his stock is high... He's always been capable of putting up stats, but I don't think he's as good as these numbers suggest.  For reference, last season his per-36 was 17.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1 steal and 1 block on 44%/28%/74%.  Very good, but a host of concerns and a deep bench of replacements might make him a primary trade candidate. 

Amir (23.4 minutes): 12.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.8 blocks with 57%/25%/63% shooting.   That's almost exactly the same as his per-36 over the past 7 years:  http://i.imgur.com/bQrcCUN.jpg  ... Check out that link, it's freaky.  Amir is Amir.   

Olynyk (17.5 minutes): 15.7 points, 9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.4 steals, 1.7 blocks 40%/29%/73% ... His shooting percentages are lower than I'd expect and those defensive numbers are way higher than I'd expect.  For reference, last year he averaged 16.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 1 block with 48%/35%/68% shooting.  I still like Olynyk a lot and remain curious what he could do with starter minutes.  When I suggest selling high on someone like Sully, I have guys like Olynyk in mind.  Could Olynyk give you 80% of what Sully gives you?  Less rebounding but probably better long-term shooting?  Could he surpass what Sully gives you?  You have to imagine his trade value sinks with his minutes.  I don't think Olynyk's future is a bench warmer getting 17.5 minutes.  Maybe I'm a homer, though.

Lee (15.8 minutes):  16.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks with 51%/X/83% shooting.   I think this one is the most interesting.  I thought before the season that Lee would be our best player.  He seemed to struggle early on.  He looked slow.  The last couple games, he's seemed to get his legs back, though.   He was an animal against Brooklyn and seemed to show the player I thought he was.  We all know that Lee is a season removed from averaging 18 and 9.  In his GSW days, he was averaging upwards of 37 minutes.  I understood why he never returned to the starting lineup in Golden State after his injury (the team playing at a championship pace and all), but I don't understand why people would think his talent disappeared.  Lack of talent isn't why Golden State never returned Lee to the starting lineup... it was a fear of ruining championship chemistry.   Now he's in Boston... and I guess I'm not all that surprised that even with his early season struggles his Per-36 numbers are about even with what he's done throughout his career:  http://i.imgur.com/AB4GkvE.jpg  ... People think he's washed up 12 games into the season... Seems to me he's probably the same ol David Lee with less than half the minutes.  His defense is another question entirely, but could that guy still get significant points/rebounds with starter minutes?  Probably.

Jerebko (13.3 minutes):  9.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.5 blocks with 48%/33%/100% shooting.      Well in his brief 13 minute stints, he hasn't looked amazing, but it's not far off from his career per-36 stats of 13 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.2 steals with 47%/34%/77% shooting.   Jerebko seems like a contributor to me.   Would the team be significantly worse-off if that guy was getting 20+ minutes as a primary backup?  Probably not.  He's got some game.

Zeller (8.9 minutes):  21.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 52%/X/82% ...  The dramatic drop in minutes for Zeller is a good illustration of the (good?) problem we have.  We're loaded with mediocre bigs.   Zeller was our starting center last year... now he's averaging 9 minutes per game.  It's not like his talent disappeared.  Again, not far off from his per-36 numbers for us last year... 17.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.1 blocks with 55%/X/82% shooting.  Same ol Zeller... far less minutes.  Could he still contribute if a trade cleared out minutes?  Sure.  If you moved Sully and other assets for a Wing and were forced to start Zeller at Center next to Amir at PF, would the team be dramatically worse off?   Probably not. 

Jordan Mickey (2.5 minutes):  36 points, 21.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 0 steals, 7.2 blocks with 50%/X/100% shooting.  LOL.  I mean, come on... nothing is more misleading than that.  He's literally played a total of 5 NBA minutes.  That's obviously not what he'd average in the NBA, but in defense of Mickey he was actually our best statistical player in summer league this year (even more so than Smart, Rozier, Young, Hunter).   I put almost no stock into d-league performances, but it's fair to note that he's been one of the best players so far in that league:  19.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 5 blocks per game in 50%/X/83% shooting in 4 games.   I think the point is here, we got a guy who is likely going to see almost no minutes buried behind the above 6 effective players... and yet are you absolutely positive he'd give you less than Jerebko?   I'm not.   I'm the last person on this forum to give credit to bigs, but I can't rule out the possibility that Mickey would perform with minutes.   If you wiped out the roster in a massive 5-for-1 deal to land a star, would I be worried about Mickey being incapable of filling the Leon Powe bench role?... Nah.  I'd guess he's capable of giving you some decent bench minutes.

So anyways, I find all of the above interesting.  It's a bit outlandish, but because of the unknown... I can't rule out the possibility that our 7th string big is on a par with our 1st string big.   It's an interesting situation we have right now. 
« Last Edit: November 21, 2015, 05:31:40 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2015, 05:41:56 PM »

Offline 86MaxwellSmart

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Brad should start Turner and IT....keep Bradley coming off the bench.
Larry Bird was Greater than you think.

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2015, 05:42:57 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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Great post Birdman Jr. TP.

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2015, 05:46:17 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Some people have described the roster as a bunch of sixth man-level talents, so I don't see a problem with giving them the sixth man-level minutes that you would expect to give them with a more talented roster.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2015, 05:52:08 PM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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So at what time did you decide it was worth buying into this team and the Nets picks LB. it seems you've taken on a more optimistic approach of late, and I for one appreciate it.

Great post, TP

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2015, 05:57:23 PM »

Offline ManUp

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I'm definitely ready to sell on Sullinger. I don't think his per36 are really all that misleading. Sully is a talented and productive player when he has the energy to keep his effort up. The issue is that I think he will command a pretty decent size contract, only to regress once the ink is dried.

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2015, 06:04:18 PM »

Offline mctyson

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I think you have to do what OConnor did and look at the 4/5 combos - can't look at these guys individually since they may be switching positions given the team on the floor. 

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2015, 06:05:24 PM »

Offline MBunge

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One of these guys is obviously getting traded but I'll be darned if I can figure out which one.  You'd think it would be Lee or Amir but what team can take their salaries and offer anything of value?  It's not like Ainge needs any more mid to late first round picks and there's no roster space for any more projects.

Mike

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2015, 06:19:57 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Given how much work Sully had to put in this summer to get to this point and how much effort it took everyone around Sully to get him to do that work, it does seem like a bit of a gamble to trust that he'll be able to maintain this level of play once he gets the big contract.

But I also don't want to trade him for someone just "as good" or some high-risk prospect. This team needs to consolidate its roster and bring in someone who can make an impact on the team, especially someone who can score.
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Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2015, 06:29:52 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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So at what time did you decide it was worth buying into this team and the Nets picks LB. it seems you've taken on a more optimistic approach of late, and I for one appreciate it.

Great post, TP
I've always been a major supporter of Ainge.  I was ecstatic about the Brooklyn trade when it happened.  Always quick to defend him. Probably the best GM in the game.

I've been a believer in Stevens since we hired him. The basketball MacGyver.  Could win games with a roll of toilet paper and a hello Kitty sticker.  His presence was the main reason I supported the playoff push last year.  Momentum keeping Stevens on board.

I guessed 45 wins this year, but for the same reason everyone dismisses Brooklyn's hot finish, I was mildly nervous our overachieving late last season wouldn't carry over.   Beating Euro teams in the preseason meant nothing to me.  I wanted to see them do it against real teams in the regular season. 

I still worry about Brooklyn getting it together. I recently read that their starting lineup has been ranked top 6 in effectiveness. Their bench has been horrible ... But that's something that can be addressed easier than fixing a starting lineup and they have no incentive to tank. 

But at this point, Boston looks like a legit playoff team and the Brooklyn pick does indeed look headed for high lotto.  It's an exciting time to be a Celtic fan.  Ainge will be presented with opportunities and options... And as a fan I've always trusted him... Dude gets it. 

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2015, 06:36:22 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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One of these guys is obviously getting traded but I'll be darned if I can figure out which one.  You'd think it would be Lee or Amir but what team can take their salaries and offer anything of value?  It's not like Ainge needs any more mid to late first round picks and there's no roster space for any more projects.

Mike
Lee and Amir are both expiring contracts. The idea is that they would be useful as salary filler when targeting a star.  They both are contributors, though.   You might be able to move Bradley (he makes like 8-9 mil) and a handful of rookie contracts to match salary for a star, but it's hard to imagine getting anyone significant without moving one of Lee or Amir in the deal.

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2015, 06:44:54 PM »

Online Neurotic Guy

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Great post -- thanks!   I for one would like to see Sully playing about 4-5 more MPG.  I think that would assure a double-double average.   A solid double-double (14/11) in about 26-27 MPG would be impressive and attractive.

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2015, 07:32:01 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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Some people have described the roster as a bunch of sixth man-level talents, so I don't see a problem with giving them the sixth man-level minutes that you would expect to give them with a more talented roster.
I agree. Playing Sully 30 minutes might increase his productivity but maybe not his actual effectiveness.

Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2015, 07:44:59 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Brad should start Turner and IT....keep Bradley coming off the bench.
i do believe you are posting in the wrong thread.

lb33 makes interesting points, especially the hello kitty idea.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2015, 07:57:50 PM by hwangjini_1 »
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Re: Per-36 Stats for our Gluttony of "Mediocre" Bigs.
« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2015, 08:11:08 PM »

Offline Greyman

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TP to the OP for the post. I am not sold on selling Sully though. I am not convinced that he will lose his drive or rest once he signs a new contract. I expect that Sully wants an NBA title as much as any player and may have taken a bit more time to realise that playing for the Celtics and raw talent aren't enough in themselves, I think he has the message that hard work is required.

He is thriving under Stevens and, outrageous offers from other teams aside, would have no reason to want to leave (okay, warmer climates maybe). Sully is our best big IMO, he would great alongside an all star level big. If he keeps going the way he is, I would rather have him in green than against, he can do a lot of damage.

I am not sure why but KO confuses me. Somedays I am thinking he is the perfect support big, great skill set and toughening up on D. Other times he can be underwhelming. Comes into games and just doesn't seem to do what you expect. That could just be me though.

Amir and Lee (after a slow start) are doing pretty much what was expected. Nice additions who are playing for their futures. Probably not the answer long term, though again, at times they have both performed better than 'mediocre'.