Author Topic: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully  (Read 6682 times)

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NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« on: November 18, 2015, 10:22:05 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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This is no way intended as an insult to Sully.  I was one of the only people on this forum defending him this offseason.  He looked good before his injury last year and played fairly well in the playoffs in limited minutes.  And generally, you see these kind of threads pop up after a player has crapped the bed... which doesn't make sense, because you don't get value back in a trade when your player is crapping the bed. 

But if you believe in selling high, I'm not sure Sully's stock is going to get any higher than it is right now.  He's been really solid this year.  Over his first 10 games, he averaged 11 points, 9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1 block, 1.3 steals on 48%/38%/68% shooting in just 24mpg.  That's a per-36 of 16 points, 13 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2 steals and 1.5 blocks.  That's excellent.

Tonight he had one of his best games of the season season:  18 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal in 30 minutes (though 7-19 shooting)

If you're looking for value on Sully, now is as good a time as any to make that move.  I'm not someone who is easily swayed by the moment.  11 games don't eliminate my concerns about the kid.

- He's injury prone
- He's perpetually out of shape to the point that his people staged an intervention
- He's potentially got an attitude problem
- He's got an arrest record for a domestic dispute with his girlfriend (though that was dismissed)
- He was late twice last year to shootaround, because of "traffic"
- His contract is coming up and his agent supposedly wanted a max extension
- Most importantly, we might not need him. 

... This team is loaded at the PF position and depending on what Ainge intends to trade Sully for and what's included in said trade, we might upgrade a more pressing role while having several candidates who can slot in and give you 80% (or maybe even 110%) of what Sully is capable of.   Candidates include David Lee (who looked a bit better tonight and might be getting his rhythm back... I'm still convinced he is capable of being close to the 18/10 player he was a little over a year ago), Amir (if we slot in someone else at center... Zeller?), Olynyk, Jerebko... maybe even Mickey.  We're stacked with players who might be on Sully's level... and if this team's pipe dream is to land Ben Simmons, I'm not sure Sully matters in the long run. 

Yeah, there's a shot that Sully is on the verge of finally breaking out... and that's why he potentially can fetch something in a trade.  It's a gamble, perhaps.  But it might be a bigger gamble to wait.   Sully's stock is at the highest it's been in quite a while.  Now might be the time to sell. 

EDIT: 
Update 1/2/16 - "Sell high" Window is basically closed.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2016, 04:10:25 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2015, 10:33:17 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm expecting some push-back on this, but I'll just say that having followed Ainge closely, this is traditionally when he usually strikes.  We moved Rondo last year when he was arguably having his best bulk stats of his career (His per-36 averages of 12.2 assists and 8.5 rebounds were the highest of his career.).  We moved Ricky Davis when he was averaging 20 points, 5.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals for us on 46%/32%/79% shooting.  We moved Antoine Walker (the second time), when the team had won 11 of their last 12.   There's countless other smaller examples of Ainge selling high on troubling players like Sullinger.   Now traditionally is when those moves happen. 

Maybe Sully finally breaks out.  Maybe he'll continue his trajectory as rich man's Glen Davis.   I'm not necessarily pushing for a trade.  I don't even know what kind of options are out there for us.  I'm just saying that if one of Danny's key goals for the season using Sully in a larger move, you might not get any better value for Sully than he's got at this moment. 

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2015, 10:34:33 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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It'd be frustrating because, from night to night, he's often our best player. Probably the most consistent thus far. But I do generally agree, pending he can bring back a reasonable return. What would you hope for?
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Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2015, 10:35:55 PM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

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we need him! have you been watching the games?
It takes me 3hrs to get to Miami and 1hr to get to Orlando... but I *SPIT* on their NBA teams! "Bless God and bless the (Celts)"-Lady GaGa (she said gays but she really meant Celts)

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2015, 10:40:14 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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It'd be frustrating because, from night to night, he's often our best player. Probably the most consistent thus far. But I do generally agree. What do you think he brings back? What would you hope for?
No idea.  I think some have the pipe dream of using him and a 1st (not the Brooklyn 1st) to get Nerlens Noel.  I don't know how realistic that is, but Sully's peaking and Noel's slumping... who knows.   I think some want a scorer like Tobias Harris (who the Magic may or may not have in their long-term plans).  There's folks who want Joakim Noah, though I don't know what purpose Sully would serve for that team.  Of course a package built around Sully, the Brooklyn pick and other assets for Cousins is always a nice dream... maybe you could con the Kings into believing Sully slotted in nicely at PF next to Willie Cauley Stein as their young bigs heading forward...   Maybe it's as simple as getting draft pick value for Sully before he locks up big money and fats his way into the cellar... Who knows.   I'm just saying that if the Celtics don't see Sully in their long-term plans, now might be the time to strike.   I've long felt like Sully might not be part of the team's future.  My spidey senses went off with Rondo and now they are going off with Sully.  He doesn't seem like an Ainge kind of guy.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2015, 10:49:52 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2015, 10:42:09 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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we need him! have you been watching the games?
Yup.  Read above.

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2015, 10:42:32 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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I'm praying Ainge pulls the trigger. I wonder how much sway BS has on Ainge's decisions. Not sure if he would be pleased with it since the Celtics have looked fairly good for a team with a bunch of role players.

Dream scenario is still Sully for Love package, but that's not going to happen. So I would take trading Sully for a future first round pick or young player under the rookie scale who has upside.

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2015, 10:45:51 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm praying Ainge pulls the trigger. I wonder how much sway BS has on Ainge's decisions. Not sure if he would be pleased with it since the Celtics have looked fairly good for a team with a bunch of role players.

Dream scenario is still Sully for Love package, but that's not going to happen. So I would take trading Sully for a future first round pick or young player under the rookie scale who has upside.
I mean... how much of our success last year happened with Sully in the lineup?  I'm not disputing Sully is playing well.  I'm saying, we might not need him.  I still don't think he fits into Ainge's long-term plans.   My hope was that we'd showcase him early on (because I know the guy is capable of putting up stats), get his trade value up and move him... and so far, it's looking like he's made the most of his showcasing. 

Of course, don't trade him for the sake of trading him.  You only do it if someone is actually willing to give value back.  I'm more just pointing out that his stock is up and now might be the time to get max return... whatever that is.

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2015, 10:48:25 PM »

Offline wiley

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Torn on this one.  Some nights his replacements have it and other nights they don't, which is precarious.  But if you give up on the idea of seeing the Celtics fight to make the ECF or some such thing then trading him for the right future piece/s becomes less painful (no pain if the player coming back can take up the slack (Noah for example or another low post presence...regarding Noah, Sully is better at this point so we'd need more). 

Botton line.  We'd missing Sully's skill but also his girth.  If it happened, there is a future Sully (will take a while) in college basketball I'd be interested in.  6' 9" 265 pound Kennedy Meeks of North Carolina.  Off the charts IQ and intangibles, great passer like Sully.  Will just need time to become rotation ready.  Needs to work on conditioning.  He'll be good in certain lineups, for example alongside Noah or Skal Lab, etc...

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2015, 10:53:24 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Torn on this one.  Some nights his replacements have it and other nights they don't, which is precarious. 
It's also dependent on who his replacements are sharing the court with and their own rhythm.  I'm still a fan of Olynyk, for instance... and if you stuck him in the PF slot for 25+ minutes a night alongside the rest of the starters, I feel like he could give you 80-110% of what Sully gives you. 

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2015, 10:54:29 PM »

Offline trickybilly

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Yeah, Sullly is my favourite guy in a game situation, but if Noel for Sully and next year swap rights with BKN pops up - I'm in. I'm ot sure the Sixers have any incentive to trade at all - package would need to include Smart for them to jump, and I don't think many people around here would do that.

It's difficult one because Ainge would be so tempted to introduce Mickey into the lineup, but also he wants to hold on to negotiating leverage by not seeming like he has moved on from Sully..

"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2015, 10:55:43 PM »

Offline mr. dee

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I don't want to trade him for another dozen of picks. We have plenty already. If anything, I'd trade him for a very productive role player that will compliement CBS system if we can't get a star in return. I want someone who can match Sully's production or better. But like the previous post asked, who could it be?

If we can't find any good offers, it's better to keep him for the rest of the season.

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2015, 10:57:15 PM »

Offline rondohondo

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Call me crazy, but I think Mickey could come close to matching sully's numbers by next year. Maybe not the rebounds, but the defense would be an upgrade. He has a Bass like 15 ft jumper that could become his go to shot, plus he can actually jump and finish at the rim with dunks(see sully having no lift and missing a bunny at the rim tonight under 1 min left in the game )

I would definitely trade Sully if we got a decent return , especially since he is up for a new contract next year .

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2015, 11:01:02 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Call me crazy, but I think Mickey could come close to matching sully's numbers by next year. Maybe not the rebounds, but the defense would be an upgrade. He has a Bass like 15 ft jumper that could become his go to shot, plus he can actually jump and finish at the rim with dunks(see sully having no lift and missing a bunny at the rim tonight under 1 min left in the game )

I would definitely trade Sully if we got a decent return , especially since he is up for a new contract next year .
Between Lee, Olynyk, Jerebko, Amir (at PF), and Mickey, I'm pretty sure we can afford to lose Sully.  They are all decent players.  Maybe they don't impact the game in the same way, but they'd contribute.   If I had to bet, I would bet against Sullinger ever being a star.  It could come back to haunt us if we traded him... but if we wait for him to get injured or have a stretch of bad games, we could end up losing our opportunity to move him for an asset Ainge wants.

And again, I'm not hating on Sully.  This offseason it seemed like everyone here was ready to dump him for a pack of smokes... on multiple occasions I pointed out that the guy still had the potential to put up stats for us.  I just think that there's a chance his hot start might be an aberration and it might be a lucky break if Ainge has been shopping him. 

Re: NOW might be a good time to trade Sully
« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2015, 11:05:09 PM »

Offline LilRip

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i think it'd be a good idea to trade Sully too. He's playing great and is showing that he def. belongs in this league.

In terms of getting value back, what this team needs is a scorer to put beside Isaiah. Derozan would be a terrific choice but getting someone like Tobias Harris would be great too.
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