Author Topic: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA  (Read 1825 times)

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Offline triboy16f

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-  Dombrowski has pointed out his #1 priority into this upcoming offseason is to obtain pitching.
-  For sure 1 high calibre starting pitching talent, several middle relief and one closer
-  He has stated he likes "hard throwers" in game saving situations.  And this likely means Koji is done as the teams closer for next season.  Could still be an effective pre closer guy along with Tazawa

The Redsox have a nice 5 man rotation going into next season. Nice but not great.  Guys like Kelly, Erod finished strong.  Good bounceback from injury performances from Porcello (#3 guy for next season).  Miley was a workhorse and was more consistent in the 2nd half. Owens has high level potential. Even Rich Hill gave the sox 3 top notch starts (striking out close to 30)

Still Dombrowski doesn't sound satisfied or excited to keep this unit for next season. So one or two trades to gain a higher calibre pitcher is a definite possible.  He can start the process early (as soon as the WS is over) and go after Greinke.  He went 19-3 last season and is considered one of the best in baseball. Has several nasty off speed pitches that should help him pitch into his mid 30's without alot much fuss.

Rumor is he is aiming for 5 year 125 million dollar deal.  I think we should try to obtain this guy as the #1 step.

- big question mark surrounding what will happen to Ramirez, Pandoval also could be a goner. 

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2015, 07:57:34 PM »

Offline Smartacus

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-  Dombrowski has pointed out his #1 priority into this upcoming offseason is to obtain pitching.
-  For sure 1 high calibre starting pitching talent, several middle relief and one closer
-  He has stated he likes "hard throwers" in game saving situations.  And this likely means Koji is done as the teams closer for next season.  Could still be an effective pre closer guy along with Tazawa

The Redsox have a nice 5 man rotation going into next season. Nice but not great.  Guys like Kelly, Erod finished strong.  Good bounceback from injury performances from Porcello (#3 guy for next season).  Miley was a workhorse and was more consistent in the 2nd half. Owens has high level potential. Even Rich Hill gave the sox 3 top notch starts (striking out close to 30)

Still Dombrowski doesn't sound satisfied or excited to keep this unit for next season. So one or two trades to gain a higher calibre pitcher is a definite possible.  He can start the process early (as soon as the WS is over) and go after Greinke.  He went 19-3 last season and is considered one of the best in baseball. Has several nasty off speed pitches that should help him pitch into his mid 30's without alot much fuss.

Rumor is he is aiming for 5 year 125 million dollar deal.  I think we should try to obtain this guy as the #1 step.

- big question mark surrounding what will happen to Ramirez, Pandoval also could be a goner.

Grenkie would have a tough time in the Boston sports media market. He's had trouble getting out of his own way and cracking under the kind of pressure that Boston Sports Coverage is known to create.

Of the available players I think David Price would be the best fit given he has the size and command to really be the driving force of a pitching staff.  Think his poor playoff performance would even out if he got into the right situation. Plus Dumbrowski's already sold him once in his career maybe he can do it again.

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2015, 11:25:03 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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i believe greinke will be be 32 at the start of next season. with a five year deal, as suggested above, that means the sox would be on the hook for his age 36 and 37 seasons at $25,000,000+ per year.

on top of that, the projected salary range for top pitchers is moving towards the $30,000,000 range. i doubt he signs for the numbers given above. who ever signs him is going to over pay for contract years 4 & 5.

that being said, yes, DD is very likely going to go after a top pitcher or two for the starting rotation. the question is whether greinke is the best pitcher for the sox going forward.

cueto, gallardo, leake are also possible free agent options. cueto is 29. leake is 27. gallardo is 29 as well. these three are very good pitchers and each is slightly younger than greinke, so a longer contract's final years are likely to provide more wins for the money.

i would not object to signing greinke, but i think other comparable, and perhaps better, options exist, so DD has options.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2015, 11:52:41 PM »

Offline triboy16f

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i believe greinke will be be 32 at the start of next season. with a five year deal, as suggested above, that means the sox would be on the hook for his age 36 and 37 seasons at $25,000,000+ per year.

on top of that, the projected salary range for top pitchers is moving towards the $30,000,000 range. i doubt he signs for the numbers given above. who ever signs him is going to over pay for contract years 4 & 5.

that being said, yes, DD is very likely going to go after a top pitcher or two for the starting rotation. the question is whether greinke is the best pitcher for the sox going forward.

cueto, gallardo, leake are also possible free agent options. cueto is 29. leake is 27. gallardo is 29 as well. these three are very good pitchers and each is slightly younger than greinke, so a longer contract's final years are likely to provide more wins for the money.

i would not object to signing greinke, but i think other comparable, and perhaps better, options exist, so DD has options.

Are Cueto, Gallardo, Leake as good or potential to be good as Greinke or are they only Porcello good?

Redsox need an ace. If it requires a little overpayment, so be it.  I wouldn't feel comfortable as much signing a 32 power pitcher like Scherzer for that kind of money. But for a guy that has multiple plus pitches and is considered one of the top pitchers in baseball, I wouldn't have an issue.  In year 4 ,25 million dollars a season might look like steal later also

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2015, 12:55:41 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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i believe greinke will be be 32 at the start of next season. with a five year deal, as suggested above, that means the sox would be on the hook for his age 36 and 37 seasons at $25,000,000+ per year.

on top of that, the projected salary range for top pitchers is moving towards the $30,000,000 range. i doubt he signs for the numbers given above. who ever signs him is going to over pay for contract years 4 & 5.

that being said, yes, DD is very likely going to go after a top pitcher or two for the starting rotation. the question is whether greinke is the best pitcher for the sox going forward.

cueto, gallardo, leake are also possible free agent options. cueto is 29. leake is 27. gallardo is 29 as well. these three are very good pitchers and each is slightly younger than greinke, so a longer contract's final years are likely to provide more wins for the money.

i would not object to signing greinke, but i think other comparable, and perhaps better, options exist, so DD has options.

Are Cueto, Gallardo, Leake as good or potential to be good as Greinke or are they only Porcello good?

Redsox need an ace. If it requires a little overpayment, so be it.  I wouldn't feel comfortable as much signing a 32 power pitcher like Scherzer for that kind of money. But for a guy that has multiple plus pitches and is considered one of the top pitchers in baseball, I wouldn't have an issue.  In year 4 ,25 million dollars a season might look like steal later also
look up their stats. they have better track records than porcello. none are probably considered "best in all of baseball" good, but the sox dont have to have that level of pitcher to win. with lester as their top pitcher they won it all.

cueto, lifetime ERA of 3.30 with lifetime ERA+ of 122
leake, 3.88, 101
gallardo, 3.66, 111
grienke, 3.35, 123

how many more wins will grienke provide per year than these guys? over the next 1 to 2, probably a few more. after that? in years 3-5 of the contract? those wins maybe negated as grienke declines. it is all a crap shoot.

with greinke, you are paying for his past, and only a short-term future. the sox have a history of letting players walk when they have a couple of good years left and the sox dont want to pay for the later, crappy years.

DD might be different, but this has been the sox approach for a while....dont over pay for the declining years of player.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2015, 01:24:34 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Haven't we learned our lesson yet with giving massive contracts to free agents and expecting it to turn the team around?
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2015, 03:22:17 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Haven't we learned our lesson yet with giving massive contracts to free agents and expecting it to turn the team around?
manny, of course, showing that not all such contracts come back to bite you. but your basic point is correct in that the sox have made some pretty poor decisions in this area.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2015, 05:06:34 PM »

Offline triboy16f

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Haven't we learned our lesson yet with giving massive contracts to free agents and expecting it to turn the team around?
manny, of course, showing that not all such contracts come back to bite you. but your basic point is correct in that the sox have made some pretty poor decisions in this area.

Dombrowski will fix things. 

I imagine  Betts, Bogaerts , Swihart, Owens, Erod and a few other key minor league prospects are staying put.

Likely Pedroia, Ortiz are staying

If the offer is right any one or combination of  Porcello, Kelly, Vazquez, Bradley Jr. , Castillo, Pandoval, Shaw could trade used as bait.

One player they have to get rid of is Ramirez.  I rather have Shaw be the FT 1b next season.  Just a horrible signing.  Pretty bad defensive player.   Time to part ways with Bucholz as well.  Hopefully some team will bite


Lineup for next season?

LF - Betts
2b - Pedroia
ss - Bogaerts
DH - Ortiz
3B - Pandoval
1B - Shaw
RF - Castillo
C - Swihart 
CF - Jackie
Utility - Holt, Rutledge, Hannigan

Ace - ?  (i'm hoping it's Greinke. Price would be ok (not fond of his poor playoffs performances)
2nd - Erod
3rd  - Porcello
4th - Kelly
5th  - Ownes
6th  -  Hill
7th  - Miley
8th  - Wright

Relief
Tazawa
Koji
Breslow
Ross Jr.
Layne
Ogando

Closer
??

Manager - Torey Lovullo (give Farrell another position with the organization)
Hitting coach - Chilli Davis (did a better job in the 2nd half)
Pitching coach - Carl Willis (very good job in the 2nd half. Helped Kelly, Porcello, Miley become better/stable pitchers). Good job developing Owens
« Last Edit: October 18, 2015, 05:35:51 PM by triboy16f »

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2015, 05:27:26 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The Red Sox have a nice young core group.  There's no reason to rush to contend again by continuing to give out huge contracts to FAs.

Do whatever it takes to get rid of Hanley and Panda without trading prospects, and look to build up the team in a structurally sound way.  The goal should be to contend 2-3 years from now, with all of these young guys hitting their mid to late 20s, and then sustain that contention for a solid 5-6 years.

If we keep looking for a one-offseason fix each winter, we're going to keep having these up and down seasons (more down than up).  Quick fixes have a tendency to result in volatility.


If I were Red Sox owner, my mandate for Dombrowski would be to put a consistently competitive and entertaining product on the field for a few seasons without compromising the long term picture.

Build up the trust of the fans again that this organization knows how to build a strong team that can be in the playoff mix year after after.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2015, 05:29:54 PM »

Offline Smartacus

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Haven't we learned our lesson yet with giving massive contracts to free agents and expecting it to turn the team around?
manny, of course, showing that not all such contracts come back to bite you. but your basic point is correct in that the sox have made some pretty poor decisions in this area.

John Lackey surprisingly enough ended up as a net positive despite the chicken and beer debacle. He had a strong final 2 seasons with the Sox and there's no way we could have won our last world series without his bounce back season.

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2015, 05:33:20 PM »

Offline triboy16f

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The Red Sox have a nice young core group.  There's no reason to rush to contend again by continuing to give out huge contracts to FAs.

Do whatever it takes to get rid of Hanley and Panda without trading prospects, and look to build up the team in a structurally sound way.  The goal should be to contend 2-3 years from now, with all of these young guys hitting their mid to late 20s, and then sustain that contention for a solid 5-6 years.

If we keep looking for a one-offseason fix each winter, we're going to keep having these up and down seasons (more down than up).  Quick fixes have a tendency to result in volatility.


If I were Red Sox owner, my mandate for Dombrowski would be to put a consistently competitive and entertaining product on the field for a few seasons without compromising the long term picture.

Build up the trust of the fans again that this organization knows how to build a strong team that can be in the playoff mix year after after.


I agree.  I like the direction this team is headed in. We really need an ace though.   I'm fine with Erod, Porcello, Kelly, Owens to round out the rotation.   We need a closer.

These two simple fixes with a consistent lineup could add another 10-12 wins, helping this team make one of two of the wildcard spots next season.  That would be considered a nice step fwd

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2015, 05:51:00 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Haven't we learned our lesson yet with giving massive contracts to free agents and expecting it to turn the team around?
manny, of course, showing that not all such contracts come back to bite you. but your basic point is correct in that the sox have made some pretty poor decisions in this area.

Dombrowski will fix things. 

I imagine  Betts, Bogaerts , Swihart, Owens, Erod and a few other key minor league prospects are staying put.

Likely Pedroia, Ortiz are staying

If the offer is right any one or combination of  Porcello, Kelly, Vazquez, Bradley Jr. , Castillo, Pandoval, Shaw could trade used as bait.

One player they have to get rid of is Ramirez.  I rather have Shaw be the FT 1b next season.  Just a horrible signing.  Pretty bad defensive player.   Time to part ways with Bucholz as well.  Hopefully some team will bite


Lineup for next season?

LF - Betts
2b - Pedroia
ss - Bogaerts
DH - Ortiz
3B - Pandoval
1B - Shaw
RF - Castillo
C - Swihart 
CF - Jackie
Utility - Holt, Rutledge, Hannigan

Ace - ?  (i'm hoping it's Greinke. Price would be ok (not fond of his poor playoffs performances)
2nd - Erod
3rd  - Porcello
4th - Kelly
5th  - Ownes
6th  -  Hill
7th  - Miley
8th  - Wright

Relief
Tazawa
Koji
Breslow
Ross Jr.
Layne
Ogando

Closer
??

Manager - Torey Lovullo (give Farrell another position with the organization)
Hitting coach - Chilli Davis (did a better job in the 2nd half)
Pitching coach - Carl Willis (very good job in the 2nd half. Helped Kelly, Porcello, Miley become better/stable pitchers). Good job developing Owens
i agree in large part with your post.

however, on the possible out-going players, i really dont think sandoval is about to be traded.

right now, it would be hard to give him away. until he proves himself, the sox would have to staple a young player to his back AND subsidize much of his salary. that makes no sense in terms of cost and leaves upon the question of who replaces him next season?

the sox picked sandoval up since they had NO ANSWER for 3rd base. that hasnt changed in the past year. shaw, holt, marrero are not long term answers.

this is sandoval's worst year. it was atypical of his past performances. no need to sell low on him now since you can always sell low on him later. the best bet is to see if he bounces back and returns to levels that dont shout "i suck and am proud of it." if this happens, then the sox get a return on your investment through moving him, or, best of all, the sox get a good major league 3rd baseman.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2015, 06:05:29 PM »

Offline triboy16f

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Haven't we learned our lesson yet with giving massive contracts to free agents and expecting it to turn the team around?
manny, of course, showing that not all such contracts come back to bite you. but your basic point is correct in that the sox have made some pretty poor decisions in this area.

Dombrowski will fix things. 

I imagine  Betts, Bogaerts , Swihart, Owens, Erod and a few other key minor league prospects are staying put.

Likely Pedroia, Ortiz are staying

If the offer is right any one or combination of  Porcello, Kelly, Vazquez, Bradley Jr. , Castillo, Pandoval, Shaw could trade used as bait.

One player they have to get rid of is Ramirez.  I rather have Shaw be the FT 1b next season.  Just a horrible signing.  Pretty bad defensive player.   Time to part ways with Bucholz as well.  Hopefully some team will bite


Lineup for next season?

LF - Betts
2b - Pedroia
ss - Bogaerts
DH - Ortiz
3B - Pandoval
1B - Shaw
RF - Castillo
C - Swihart 
CF - Jackie
Utility - Holt, Rutledge, Hannigan

Ace - ?  (i'm hoping it's Greinke. Price would be ok (not fond of his poor playoffs performances)
2nd - Erod
3rd  - Porcello
4th - Kelly
5th  - Ownes
6th  -  Hill
7th  - Miley
8th  - Wright

Relief
Tazawa
Koji
Breslow
Ross Jr.
Layne
Ogando

Closer
??

Manager - Torey Lovullo (give Farrell another position with the organization)
Hitting coach - Chilli Davis (did a better job in the 2nd half)
Pitching coach - Carl Willis (very good job in the 2nd half. Helped Kelly, Porcello, Miley become better/stable pitchers). Good job developing Owens
i agree in large part with your post.

however, on the possible out-going players, i really dont think sandoval is about to be traded.

right now, it would be hard to give him away. until he proves himself, the sox would have to staple a young player to his back AND subsidize much of his salary. that makes no sense in terms of cost and leaves upon the question of who replaces him next season?

the sox picked sandoval up since they had NO ANSWER for 3rd base. that hasnt changed in the past year. shaw, holt, marrero are not long term answers.

this is sandoval's worst year. it was atypical of his past performances. no need to sell low on him now since you can always sell low on him later. the best bet is to see if he bounces back and returns to levels that dont shout "i suck and am proud of it." if this happens, then the sox get a return on your investment through moving him, or, best of all, the sox get a good major league 3rd baseman.

Sandoval needs to lose weight and play with more focus. We all know he can play and is a playoff performer

Not an immediate need to trade him like Ramirez. Just stating if we can get someone better and they want panda, so be it.

Shaw and Holt are not natural 3B

Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2015, 11:03:45 PM »

Offline Forza Juventus

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They finally have someone new in charge of the baseball side of things with new ideas.

They should keep Clay because he is good as a 2 or 3. Keep Hanley and play him at 1st base. Keep Panda because his trade value is too low. Get a ace, I would get Cueto.
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Re: 2016 Redsox Thread - Focus on obtaining pitching. Greinke is a FA
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2015, 11:44:04 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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They finally have someone new in charge of the baseball side of things with new ideas.

They should keep Clay because he is good as a 2 or 3. Keep Hanley and play him at 1st base. Keep Panda because his trade value is too low. Get a ace, I would get Cueto.
buchholtz can be a dominating pitcher....and he can be terrible...and he can be injured. what he has NOT proven in his career is that he can log a lot of innings. in the past five seasons his innings and ERA have been:

2011 = 82.2, 3.48
2012 = 189.1, 4.56
2013 = 108.1, 1.74
2014 = 170.1, 5.34
2015 = 113.1, 3.26

in the past five year, buchholz has had 1 incredibly good season, 2 good seasons, and 2 sucky season. not exactly a rock of stability.

and what is bothersome is that his two sucky seasons occurred when he did NOT lose time due to injury. maybe when he throws very well something in his mechanics results in injuries, i dont know. but it is not a happy stat.

moreover, he simply cannot be trusted to pitch consistently due to frequent injuries. plus, hard to believe it, he is 31 years old. (where do those years go?) his health is not about to suddenly improve in the immediate future.

i think buchholz has one year left on his contract at $13,000,000. yes, keep him for this year. but beyond this, i dont know if he is a good investment.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2015, 11:50:28 PM by hwangjini_1 »
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva