Author Topic: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs  (Read 9888 times)

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Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2015, 11:05:08 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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He's the 5th string big on a borderline playoff team.  What's that worth?  Think we could even get a late 1st for him at this point?

I actually still think Sully can put up 15/6 -> 18/8  if given the minutes.  I figured we'd showcase him early and ship him out at the earliest possible chance.  I have suspicions the kid has an attitude problem.

Just because he's the 5th big on the court, doesn't mean he's the 5th best big. 

Boston is in a very unique position in that the team has 5 bigs who are all roughly about as good as each other...so depending on your perspective you could just as easily argue Sully is the best big on the team as you could that he's the 5th best big on the team.  His position in the rotation is moreso a reflection of how well he fits the system, rather than a reflection of how good / talented he is.

Sully has career averages of 11.4 points and 7.4 rebounds in 25.4 minutes (16 and 10 Per-36) and he's only 23 years old.  The guy can play, and he's a legit starting caliber PF for most teams out there. 

I've got no doubts that there are teams out there who could improve significantly by adding a guy like Sully.  Detroit is the first that spring to mind.  A Sully / Drummond front court would be devastating. 

We got a first rounder for Jeff Green, and I'd say Sully is about on par (value wise) with Jeff Green when we traded him out - maybe a tad more valuable due to his age and the fact that he is more skilled (Green was really just a scorer). 

There's nothing in there from any member of the Celtics organization that suggests who the 4 are. It's Blakely - who is often incorrect - pulling 4 names out of his ass with nothing to back it up.

It's not Blakely who brought out these lineups - its Brad Stevens himself.  By using those rotations in both pre-season games (and openly saying that he liked the rotations) you can be relatively confident that these are the rotations that will start the season.

Whether they remain that way we don't know, but my money is on that Lee/Zeller, Johnson/Olynyk teaming. 

“Whoever those four may be, may depend on the night, may depend on how they’re playing, may depend on who is healthy.” Well, this is also pretty self-apparent. Because Brad has flexibility, who plays will depend production, match ups and health. This is makes perfect sense. Need rebounding? Sullinger is in there. Are you going to need inside scoring? Lee may be the man. A defensive presence? Amir, step forward. Need a big body? Zeller, you're up. Want to draw their guy out of the paint? KO, come on down.

There is one problem with your logic there.

For their careers:
* Sully has an average of 10.5 Rebounds Per 36 and a 16.4% rebound percentage
* Lee has an average of 10.8 Rebounds Per 36 and a 16.9% rebound percentage

Why would you put Sully in for rebounding,  when Lee is actually a slightly better rebounder? 

Likewise you can't use Sully and Lee together (for defensive reasons) so anytime you DO want a rebounder out there, you'd just take Lee.

There lies the problem with Sully.  If you look at all the things he does well (rebounder, inside scoring, passing) David Lee does them better. 

Therefore there is really never any situation in which Sully is the best man for the job - there is always somebody better.  Whether it's rebounding (Lee), inside scoring (Lee), play-making (Lee), outside shooting (Olynyk) mid-range shooting (Zeller) or defense (Johnson) there is always somebody on the team who is better at it than Sully.

That's why Sully is expendable.  None of the things he brings to the team (aside from poor conditioning and horrible shot selection) are unique to him. There is always somebody else who can do anything he can do.

So if you have too many players and you want to get rid of somebody...the choice becomes easy. 

Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2015, 11:11:25 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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In that case, Detroit should look to acquire David Lee to pair with Drummond. If Sully-Drummond would be devastating, Lee-Drummond would be . . . devastatinger, no?
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Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2015, 11:23:26 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Making Sully the odd-man out will make it difficult to get anything for him via trade.

At this point in the process, maximizing wins is more important than maximizing Sullinger's trade value.
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Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2015, 11:25:54 PM »

Offline Granath

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It's not Blakely who brought out these lineups - its Brad Stevens himself.  By using those rotations in both pre-season games (and openly saying that he liked the rotations) you can be relatively confident that these are the rotations that will start the season.

It's a mighty big leap from two European exhibitions to suggest who the starters in the regular season will be.

Quote
There is one problem with your logic there.

For their careers:
* Sully has an average of 10.5 Rebounds Per 36 and a 16.4% rebound percentage
* Lee has an average of 10.8 Rebounds Per 36 and a 16.9% rebound percentage

Why would you put Sully in for rebounding,  when Lee is actually a slightly better rebounder?

(I omitted the rest because your conclusions are drawn from faulty logic)

Because there is one problem with your logic (seems to be consistent given the Kobe thread) - age. Lee is 32 and coming off injury (this sound familiar)? He hasn't averaged that many boards in 4 of his last 5 seasons. Using career statistics on a guy who is on the decline against a guy who is still maturing is a sure-fire way to make some poor comparisons.

Kevin Garnett may have better career rebounding numbers than Anthony Davis, but I'll bet my salary that Davis averages more boards this year. While Lee is not as old as KG and Sully is no Davis, the point remains - you simply can't use career numbers to justify decisions when those career numbers may not be (and in fact are likely not to be) achievable.

Therefore, all of your conclusions that follow aren't really all that valid. David Lee may recover. He may be the 18/10 player he was three years ago. But given the normal decline of a NBA player in his 30s - especially one who is coming off an injury - making the assumption that he will be the player he was is a pretty massive leap of faith and it's not one I'm willing to make at this juncture. 20 games into the regular season, maybe, but not after two preseason games in Europe.

Lee averaged 8/5 last year. If he averages what Sullinger did last year (and plays 70+ games) then he will have had a very successful year and something to be proud of. That's a pretty impressive output for a guy of that age coming off injury and a down year. But frankly, that's probably a stretch. That's just the inevitability of Father Time.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 11:34:06 PM by Granath »
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Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2015, 11:35:15 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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In that case, Detroit should look to acquire David Lee to pair with Drummond. If Sully-Drummond would be devastating, Lee-Drummond would be . . . devastatinger, no?

No, for a few reasons:

1) Detroit is in rebuild mode.  They were a lottery team last year, and they are more concerned about building a core for the future rather than winning lots of games now.  Sully is 23, so he's a guy who if he agreed to an extension he can slot in and grow alongside Drummond for the next several years as Detroit's front court of the future. 

Lee is 32 years old, he has one year left on his contact, and there is no way he's going to consider signing a new contract to stay on a rebuilding Pistons team.  Likewise there isn't much point in Detroit signing him to a new contact since he's likely only got another 1 or 2 years of competitive basketball left in him.

2) Drummond is a big, hulking rim protector who really has no offensive game outside of 5 feet.  Monroe's lack of an outside game was the biggest reason why he never fit alongside Drummond - there was no floor spacing.  Sully could come in and stretch the floor with his midrange game, and even step out and hit the occasional three.  He's also a skilled passer (which Drummond is not). His overall skill set is a perfect complement for Drummond's really.

Here Boston already has four other bigs (Zeller, Lee, Johnson, Olynyk) who are all good passers, and who are all perfectly capable of hitting the midrange jumper with consistency.  Two of those guys (Johnson and Olynyk) have the ability to step out and hit the odd three.  Sully's skill set is redundant here since other guys fill the same need - that's not the case in Detroit.   

3) Boston is pretty much in win-now mode.  Danny has a ton if cap space and a ton of assets.  He wants to be a major player in next year's free agent market, and for him to do that it's in his best interests to win as many game as possible - this ensures that the team is as attractive a destination as possible for upcoming free agents. 

For that reason a guy like Lee is a gold mine here.  Not only will he help you win more games, but his contract also expires next year, meaning his production this season doesn't impact Boston's cap space in free agency next year. 

4) Because Sully (not Lee) is the player that Boston is hypothetically offering.  If Cleveland puts Iman Shumpert on the trading block, you can't just turn around and say "nah, I want Lebron".  Well you can, but it won't get you far. 

Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2015, 11:48:31 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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In a redundancy of skill sets, why must it be Sully who is expendable?

Lee is an expiring. We've established that his career numbers and Sully's are roughly equivalent.

Amir has a team option for next year (de facto expiring), and struggled through injury last year.

If Olynyk and Zeller have demonstrated anything so far, it's that they are inconsistent.

Why are those four to be kept, and Sullinger moved?
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Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2015, 11:48:39 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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I won't be upset if we start out with a four big man rotation of Zeller, Lee, Johnson and Olynyk.

I expect Stevens to rest Johnson and Lee for games during the season in order to keep them fresh and avoid injury. When those guys are sitting I expect Sullinger to get extended minutes. Sullinger will get his chance.
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Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2015, 11:52:20 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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I expect Stevens to rest Johnson and Lee for games during the season in order to keep them fresh and avoid injury. When those guys are sitting I expect Sullinger to get extended minutes. Sullinger will get his chance.

The way I see it as well.
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Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2015, 11:52:50 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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When I read this article here and this :
Quote

"Yeah, for sure," Sullinger said. "At the same time, I’m not here to make it a rivalry between me, Amir (Johnson), Tyler (Zeller), Kelly (Olynyk), Jonas (Jerebko) or D-Lee. My biggest thing is I just want us to win. If that’s me cutting back my minutes, that’s me cutting back my minutes, but the ultimate goal is to win basketball games. That’s the ultimate goal as a team, as a unit. Going forward, it’s a long season. You never know what’s going to happen, so you’ve just got to stay ready. "There ain’t no added focus. Like I said, I’m not here to make it a rivalry. It’s just when my number’s called, I’ve got to be ready to play and just do what I’ve been doing the past three years.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/10/12/9504799/jared-sullinger-taking-team-focus-on-playing-time

I thought when I read this that it was him saying I might not be playing as much.   One has to wonder if he was aware of it, when he said that stuff.   I am sure, he is bright, (lacks willpower but not dumb) that he noticed the rotations in practice.  It could be nonsense and we will see what future games hold.  Then the Blakely article comes out.   Who knows it is Sherrod and he is about as much as insider as you or I.

I thought from the get go they were not happy with his weight this year, again despite some improvement in the fitness area.  One would think that he would have moved up in minutes after his first great preseason game in Europe.   He was solid, not on D, but he boarded well and shot well.  When he was still at the bottom of the pile, after that one, the next game one has to wonder.

Quote
It's a mighty big leap from two European exhibitions to suggest who the starters in the regular season will be.

Some guys here think he does no wrong, they are not going to believe this until we are twenty games into the season if this does happen to be true.  We are still all dying to see the stats that show Sully is a good defender.  I concur it is early, but I do not think it is a lock that he is not the odd man out or odd man in.

Quote
Lee averaged 8/5 last year. If he averages what Sullinger did last year (and plays 70+ games) then he will have had a very successful year and something to be proud of. That's a pretty impressive output for a guy of that age coming off injury and a down year. But frankly, that's probably a stretch. That's just the inevitability of Father Time.

What about Gravity with Sully's weight pulling on his back and the like?   Do you think he will play more than the 59 games he has averaged a year since being in the league.   Not like Old Man Lee is much worse risk than Jared.   I think more people defy father time than defy Gravity.  You apply scrunity to one but not the other.

If it is able guys fitting in, I think a half court offense, with a slow down style is what would suit him best.   Not CBS style, we don't know what is going on at practice.   I heard that Sully was really banging Mickey though and negating his leaping with his body but that was a few weeks ago.  Sully did get really swatted bad twice in the Madrid game.

Quote
Why are those four to be kept, and Sullinger moved?

Because, they all can run better than him, defend better than him.   They are more healthy, they maintain their weight, they stay fit.   They do what the team tells them to do in the offseason, and are professional.  I would wager all of them can jump higher than him as well and most I would are stronger than him.  KO's body has changed every year.   Sully still looks like the guy who benched 185 nine times at the combine.

Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2015, 12:00:43 AM »

Offline Lucky17

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Lee and Amir are not more healthy than Sullinger. Both suffered a significant drop in effectiveness last season due to injury.

I'm no Sully fan, BTW. I sincerely hope he plays this season so as to elevate his trade value.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 12:12:19 AM by Lucky17 »
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Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2015, 12:45:33 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I expect Stevens to rest Johnson and Lee for games during the season in order to keep them fresh and avoid injury. When those guys are sitting I expect Sullinger to get extended minutes. Sullinger will get his chance.

The way I see it as well.

One best case scenario might be that one or two guys get hurt and Sully ends up playing 30mpg for an extended stretch before the break, and puts up numbers decent enough to increase his value.

I'm less optimistic about Sully breaking into the rotation and cementing a role on this team. For a variety of reasons I think a change of scenery is probably best for the C's and Sully himself.


Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2015, 01:31:46 AM »

Offline GC003332

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I don't think that it is necessary to showcase Sullinger if the team does intend to move him, he has provided the other 29 GM's around the league a large enough body of work over his first 3 seasons for them to know what he is all about, in fact in could be argued that he has shown a far too large a body of work ;)

Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #27 on: October 13, 2015, 01:47:27 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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I don't think that it is necessary to showcase Sullinger if the team does intend to move him, he has provided the other 29 GM's around the league a large enough body of work over his first 3 seasons for them to know what he is all about, in fact in could be argued that he has shown a far too large a body of work ;)

Stevens will give him at least 10 games of 25+ minutes before the deadline. If he can't dazzle, then he might not get more than the qualifying offer. So it's win win with Sully. I like him.
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Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #28 on: October 13, 2015, 01:52:52 AM »

Offline chambers

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This is either complete crap made up by Blakely (most likely).

Or it's been leaked to Blakely as negotiating power for Sully's extension talks.

Using simple logic, there is absolutely no reason to have a set core 4 of big men after 2 pre season games.

Sherod had an article deadline and decided to run with what is probably the most debated topic at the moment and a topic that might get some clicks.

Nothing to see here.

"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

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Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Stevens appears to have settled on his top four bigs
« Reply #29 on: October 13, 2015, 02:02:38 AM »

Offline chambers

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FYI for the 'Sully sucks on D' advocates, Sullinger was in the 42nd percentile for pick n roll D and 73rd percentile for post defense last season.

That means his pick and roll D was 8% below the average NBA power forward's pick n roll defensive effectiveness and 23% better than the average power forward's post defense.

This is on a team with solid perimeter defenders and puss interior defenders by his side.

He's a completely average defender but he is not 'poor' by any means.

I haven't looked them up but I'd wager $100 that those numbers are better than both Lee and Olynyk's results.

Stevens may be punishing him for his lack of effort in the off season or his attitude coming into training camp which is completely reasonable to me.

If he isn't going to act like a professional then he needs some kind of reality check and this is the perfect opportunity.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 02:30:11 AM by chambers »
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.