Author Topic: Celtics players should be taking better shots  (Read 5390 times)

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Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2015, 04:10:17 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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As Csfan wrote, IT repeatedly takes shots while being closely covered and doesn't move to an open place to shoot.  (Okay, he does draw fouls in many cases, but it doesn't lend itself to good team play.)

IT's extremely high scoring efficiency (partly a result of drawing so many fouls) says that you are wrong.

Isaiah's ability to draw contact has resulted in a career FT/FGA ratio of .372 which understates his more current ability since he sunk charity baskets at a ridiculous .481 times per FGA rate this last Spring with Boston.

Think about that:  For every 2 FGA he attempted for us last Spring, he essentially _made_ a free throw!!!  Not to mention the amount of foul pressure he put on opposing players.

On the particular situation of Isaiah taking shots when "closely covered", Isaiah is very aware that most players tower over him and everyone of them think that they are going to be able to block his shot.   So he takes advantage of that by instead inducing them to foul him.  In truth, he got blocked on just 6.7% of his shots last year.

That is a skill.  That's not 'bad shot selection'.   That skill is why Isaiah has an unreal TS% (scoring efficiency) of .575 for his career.

Lamenting the tendency of this team's offense to take 'bad shots'  misses the mark on why the offense has been sub par the last couple of seasons.  The problem has less to do with the conditions of the shots than it is to do with who is taking the shots. 

The trend in our offense has been to 'spread the offense around' so much such that too many shots are being taken by bad shooters.  It is a problem that if you share shots too evenly, you are more likely to end up as a mediocre offense.   Because unless you are an exceptional team, your average shooter is going to be mediocre.

The problems with the offense were, as Phosita stated, more with the fact that we had many lesser offensive players of poor efficiency taking far too many shots and not enough shots being taken by our most efficient scorers.

Evan Turner had a miserable eFG% of .451 and a miserable TS% of .481, yet he took the second most FGA on the Celtics last season.   Avery Bradley posted not-as-miserable-but-not-good mediocre .490/.501 efficiencies and yet he took the MOST FGA for this team last year.

When the two players who took the most shots on your team post mediocre-to-horrible efficiency numbers, then your offense will be, at best, mediocre.   And sure enough, thats what the team's offense was last year:  Mediocre (18th in offensive rating).

That isn't to pick on Bradley or Turner as bad players.   That's to point out that they should not be our two most prolific shooters.   Just like Satch Sanders realized.
No one is talking about driving to the rim, one dribble space shots or looking for a foul. We are talking about the need to probe/ dance/ stutter dribble before the shot.

That (having to probe/dance/stutter dribble) usually (not always, but usually) says more about what is going on with the other 4 offensive players than it does about the ball-handler.

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Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2015, 08:35:05 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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As Csfan wrote, IT repeatedly takes shots while being closely covered and doesn't move to an open place to shoot.  (Okay, he does draw fouls in many cases, but it doesn't lend itself to good team play.)

IT's extremely high scoring efficiency (partly a result of drawing so many fouls) says that you are wrong.

Isaiah's ability to draw contact has resulted in a career FT/FGA ratio of .372 which understates his more current ability since he sunk charity baskets at a ridiculous .481 times per FGA rate this last Spring with Boston.

Think about that:  For every 2 FGA he attempted for us last Spring, he essentially _made_ a free throw!!!  Not to mention the amount of foul pressure he put on opposing players.

On the particular situation of Isaiah taking shots when "closely covered", Isaiah is very aware that most players tower over him and everyone of them think that they are going to be able to block his shot.   So he takes advantage of that by instead inducing them to foul him.  In truth, he got blocked on just 6.7% of his shots last year.

That is a skill.  That's not 'bad shot selection'.   That skill is why Isaiah has an unreal TS% (scoring efficiency) of .575 for his career.

Lamenting the tendency of this team's offense to take 'bad shots'  misses the mark on why the offense has been sub par the last couple of seasons.  The problem has less to do with the conditions of the shots than it is to do with who is taking the shots. 

The trend in our offense has been to 'spread the offense around' so much such that too many shots are being taken by bad shooters.  It is a problem that if you share shots too evenly, you are more likely to end up as a mediocre offense.   Because unless you are an exceptional team, your average shooter is going to be mediocre.

The problems with the offense were, as Phosita stated, more with the fact that we had many lesser offensive players of poor efficiency taking far too many shots and not enough shots being taken by our most efficient scorers.

Evan Turner had a miserable eFG% of .451 and a miserable TS% of .481, yet he took the second most FGA on the Celtics last season.   Avery Bradley posted not-as-miserable-but-not-good mediocre .490/.501 efficiencies and yet he took the MOST FGA for this team last year.

When the two players who took the most shots on your team post mediocre-to-horrible efficiency numbers, then your offense will be, at best, mediocre.   And sure enough, thats what the team's offense was last year:  Mediocre (18th in offensive rating).

That isn't to pick on Bradley or Turner as bad players.   That's to point out that they should not be our two most prolific shooters.   Just like Satch Sanders realized.
No one is talking about driving to the rim, one dribble space shots or looking for a foul. We are talking about the need to probe/ dance/ stutter dribble before the shot.

That (having to probe/dance/stutter dribble) usually (not always, but usually) says more about what is going on with the other 4 offensive players than it does about the ball-handler.
I agree it can be the other players not getting open. Yet IT himself addressed it was an issue on his part. That he had watched a lot of Steve Nash this offseason to get idea of probing and not shooting but to be patient on things opening up for teammates.

Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2015, 09:28:32 PM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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As much as I love good, team play where we move the ball and guys get open shots, there has to also be a place for your better, most effective offensive players to be taking more shots than your less effective ones, even though they'll be more tightly covered. I'd rather have Thomas shoot a fairly contested 3 off the dribble that he still has a good chance of making than giving a winded, trailing Sully a wide open look from 3.

Sometimes a mediocre shot from an excellent offensive player is better than an excellent shot from a mediocre player. Thomas is going to be the lynchpin of our offense, and while they're were surely spots last season where the better play would've been to make a pass instead of force a shot (which IT acknowledged in a recent interview). but as his teammates improve, he gets more comfortable here and were not asking to quite so much on offense, those plays will almost disappear. We needed that kind of selfish play from IT at times last year, I don't think there's much to complain about from an offensive production standpoint with him.

Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2015, 10:02:32 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I think different teams react differently to the defense taking away what you do well on offense. In a motion offense ideally you can reverse the ball multiple times and probe until the you get what you want, but I don't think the C's have the personnel to play like that. We have only a few guys who are really good at passing, and we don't really have anyone to take the bail-out shot with 2 seconds on the shotclock. I don't have a problem with taking an OK shot instead of trying to use all 24 seconds and risking a turnover. It's pretty amazing how well we limited turnovers last year.

I think this year Stevens should push guys to be a bit more patient, let plays develop and hopefully improve their ability to react to the defense as a team.

I agree with this - I also worry that some guys' confidence will plummet if they are told not to shoot. Somebody like KO may never take another shot again because he will overthink every situation (and we actually want him taking more shots!).

Players will always want to 'get theirs', but I think Stevens has basically done a nice job keeping selfishness to a minimum with such a deep roster / rotation. Hopefully the team, as a whole, can learn to react to each team's defense and continue to find the best shot possible.

Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2015, 07:04:22 AM »

Offline littleteapot

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I think different teams react differently to the defense taking away what you do well on offense. In a motion offense ideally you can reverse the ball multiple times and probe until the you get what you want, but I don't think the C's have the personnel to play like that. We have only a few guys who are really good at passing, and we don't really have anyone to take the bail-out shot with 2 seconds on the shotclock. I don't have a problem with taking an OK shot instead of trying to use all 24 seconds and risking a turnover. It's pretty amazing how well we limited turnovers last year.

I think this year Stevens should push guys to be a bit more patient, let plays develop and hopefully improve their ability to react to the defense as a team.

I agree with this - I also worry that some guys' confidence will plummet if they are told not to shoot. Somebody like KO may never take another shot again because he will overthink every situation (and we actually want him taking more shots!).

Players will always want to 'get theirs', but I think Stevens has basically done a nice job keeping selfishness to a minimum with such a deep roster / rotation. Hopefully the team, as a whole, can learn to react to each team's defense and continue to find the best shot possible.
I don't think players were trying to get their stats, at least after we traded Rondo and Green.

I think we had a lot of inexperienced players who also hadn't played much together last year and hadn't played under Stevens. If you're a ball handler, you have to know where people are going to be cutting/spotting up so you know where the best spots are to give yourself passing lanes. That just takes time.
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Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2015, 09:33:01 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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I think different teams react differently to the defense taking away what you do well on offense. In a motion offense ideally you can reverse the ball multiple times and probe until the you get what you want, but I don't think the C's have the personnel to play like that. We have only a few guys who are really good at passing, and we don't really have anyone to take the bail-out shot with 2 seconds on the shotclock. I don't have a problem with taking an OK shot instead of trying to use all 24 seconds and risking a turnover. It's pretty amazing how well we limited turnovers last year.

I think this year Stevens should push guys to be a bit more patient, let plays develop and hopefully improve their ability to react to the defense as a team.

I agree with this - I also worry that some guys' confidence will plummet if they are told not to shoot. Somebody like KO may never take another shot again because he will overthink every situation (and we actually want him taking more shots!).

Players will always want to 'get theirs', but I think Stevens has basically done a nice job keeping selfishness to a minimum with such a deep roster / rotation. Hopefully the team, as a whole, can learn to react to each team's defense and continue to find the best shot possible.

I'm pretty sure that no one on the staff or team will ever tell Kelly "not to shoot".

Quite the opposite, in fact.

Selfishness isn't the problem in this offense but misguided egalitarianism might be.


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Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2015, 10:23:10 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Thomas does take some shots that I would consider bad, but with how often he gets to the line I can live with them. You could make the argument that him pulling up from anywhere causes defenders to play him closer and thus allows him to draw more fouls.

Who else takes bad shots though? Bradley has been getting most of his preseason offense off corner 3's and cut to the hoop that lead to high percentage shots. Lee's shots are all either layups off the PnR, and deep post touches (same for Johnson). Smart has been attacking the hoop a lot more.

After watching the first two games, I got the impression that this team is going to work to get quality shots.
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Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2015, 11:34:19 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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It's up to the team's chef to prescribe more fiber. Less meat, more oranges, and plenty of water.

Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2015, 11:59:51 AM »

Offline littleteapot

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It's up to the team's chef to prescribe more fiber. Less meat, more oranges, and plenty of water.
I'm trying not to imagine what the situation is like for Sully.
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Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2015, 12:50:57 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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It's up to the team's chef to prescribe more fiber. Less meat, more oranges, and plenty of water.
I'm trying not to imagine what the situation is like for Sully.
if they're pumping full of fiber and water hopefully he won't "Sully" his shorts on the court  :P

Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2015, 01:18:49 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Selfishness isn't the problem in this offense but misguided egalitarianism might be.


I like that -- "misguided egalitarianism."

Seems to me that there might be a conflict between helping our younger guys develop along the lines that will lead to greatest long term success in the NBA, versus what is needed for our offense right now.

Pretty much all of the players on our team have the makings of career role players, albeit role players who could carve out a nice long career in this league. 

So on the one hand, you want to develop them into the best role players they can be.  That means keeping their responsibilities small and encouraging them to keep the ball moving and focus on what they do best.  Basically, you prep them to do what they would do on a good team, in the hopes that they are ready to succeed in that environment when the team gets good again.

On the other hand, we've got a team with only one guy, maybe two, who is an honest to goodness scorer and knows how to succeed in a high usage role.  So sometimes having all of our role players look to share the ball before they look to score can actually hurt the offense.  Teams need guys on the floor willing to take a lot of shots, even if those aren't always the most efficient shots.

That's why on this team I don't mind so much that Avery has taken a lot of shots, because at least he's willing to take them.  Sometimes he gets hot and hits some big shots, which helps the team win close games.  But ideally you'd have somebody else who is willing to be a shot-taker, somebody who actually gets inside and draws fouls sometimes.  Isaiah can obviously do that, but he can't do it for more than 28-30 minutes a night without killing the team defensively.
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Re: Celtics players should be taking better shots
« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2015, 03:03:52 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Selfishness isn't the problem in this offense but misguided egalitarianism might be.

This is brilliant!  TP to you!