Author Topic: 538 Sports Projects Smart as ...  (Read 4149 times)

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Re: 538 Sports Projects Smart as ...
« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2015, 05:16:54 PM »

Offline mctyson

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So Harden is a good comp to Smart except for the part where Harden is one of the most dominant offensive players in the NBA? I guess I agree with that - not sure what the significance of that is though.
I think the comp is in terms of overall effect on the game rather than specific skillsets.


How about we just accept that there's too little data so far to make any meaningful predictions about Smart's value as a player?
There is absolutely too little data, which means we can't confirm or immediately dismiss comparisons like this.

Comps like this make me happy so I don't dismiss them.

I think Billups with NBA All Defensive team is a great ceiling for Smart and we would be thrilled if he turned out that way.


« Last Edit: October 09, 2015, 06:38:11 PM by mctyson »

Re: 538 Sports Projects Smart as ...
« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2015, 05:23:48 PM »

Offline littleteapot

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There is absolutely too little data, which means we can't confirm or immediately dismiss comparisons like this.

Comps like this make me happy so I don't dismiss them.
Well yesterday I would have immediately dismissed the Harden comparison, so now that I've got data on the fact that Smart and Harden have a 40% match based on their rookie season stats, I'll take a moment's hesitation before dismissing it.
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Re: 538 Sports Projects Smart as ...
« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2015, 05:44:39 PM »

Offline mctyson

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A future Allstar

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#marcus-smart

His most likely comparisons are Harden, George, Richardson, Caldwell-Pope, Radmonovic, Joe Johnson, Baron Davis, Farmar, Barbosa, and Billups.

It's a fun little tool to play with.

Would like to note that CARMELO is very racially sensitive

Re: 538 Sports Projects Smart as ...
« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2015, 06:36:49 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Pretty large confidence intervals -- by 2018, he will be somewhere within the range of bottom-of-the-barrel to borderline superstar.

I like 538, these are fun, and just now cropping up... so it's hard to judge them too harshly. Somewhat strange selection of variables though, though ... weight, unless taken into context with height (quotient), and tendencies/chucking percentages as predictors pf future performance (+/- or WAR).

Third variable issue messes up stat projections in sports. Would be cool if they included other variables associated with the players' respective teams, college stats, etc., though, even as moderators.

CARMELO also projects the Cs to go 48-34.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-boston-celtics-preview-carmelo/
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Re: 538 Sports Projects Smart as ...
« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2015, 06:45:19 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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The comparisons are kind of wonky since they're based on where he is at this stage in his career instead of the projected trajectory.  If he hits the Wins Above Replacement they're forecasting he'll look most similar to Jason Richardson and Joe Johnson.

Re: 538 Sports Projects Smart as ...
« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2015, 07:03:22 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I'll propose an alternate set of comps, based purely on counting stats, 3 point shot frequency, and size / position, all rookie seasons:

- Mario Chalmers
- Ray Felton
- Brandon Jennings
- OJ Mayo
- Eric Gordon

Source here

Smart may be a better defender than all of those guys, so if he can stay healthy and develop his offensive game, he could be better than anybody on that list.

Still, it's hard to find an example of a rookie who didn't score very many points or get the line much, and who took a lot of outside shots, who ended up becoming a prolific, efficient, and versatile scorer.

Each of those guys has shown at some point the potential to be a very good scorer, however.
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Re: 538 Sports Projects Smart as ...
« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2015, 08:24:05 PM »

Offline DarkAzcura

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I'll propose an alternate set of comps, based purely on counting stats, 3 point shot frequency, and size / position, all rookie seasons:

- Mario Chalmers
- Ray Felton
- Brandon Jennings
- OJ Mayo
- Eric Gordon

Source here

Smart may be a better defender than all of those guys, so if he can stay healthy and develop his offensive game, he could be better than anybody on that list.

Still, it's hard to find an example of a rookie who didn't score very many points or get the line much, and who took a lot of outside shots, who ended up becoming a prolific, efficient, and versatile scorer.

Each of those guys has shown at some point the potential to be a very good scorer, however.

Can't really judge too much until Smart actually plays his game in the NBA. He didn't really try drawing fouls last year, and he still posted a 27% FTr. I'll be interested to see where he ends up when he actually tries to play more similar to his college style. I don't really buy that he took a ton of 3s because he couldn't drive in the NBA. He improved his 3PT shot big time between college and his rookie year so I kinda expect a renewed focus on driving to the rim like he used to. We will see.

Re: 538 Sports Projects Smart as ...
« Reply #22 on: October 10, 2015, 02:00:23 PM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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Well the rumor is that Smart didn't have his usual explosiveness his rookie year due to nagging injury issue.  I would really like to see a healthy Marcus Smart in year 2, and see him take his game to the next level.

The unexpected benefit of Smart not being able to drive, he had to develop other aspects of his game such as his long range shooting/3 pt shot which was surprisingly good 33.5%.  If that climbs steadily into the 35-40% range, and young players percentages generally climb in the first few years of development, Smart would become an elite outside NBA shooter.

I like the comp to Chauncey Billups.  If we are patient, Smart could turn out that good for us.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/billuch01.html