538 Sports Projects Smart as ...

[DefenseWinsChamps]

A future Allstar

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#marcus-smart

His most likely comparisons are Harden, George, Richardson, Caldwell-Pope, Radmonovic, Joe Johnson, Baron Davis, Farmar, Barbosa, and Billups.

It's a fun little tool to play with.

[Denis998]

I wonder in what ways he comps to them

[littleteapot]

They list the stats that they're using to compare on the left hand column I think.

[bdm860]

 

All-Star and many names on that list don't belong in the same sentence,

[DefenseWinsChamps]

All-Star and many names on that list don't belong in the same sentence,

6/10 were allstars. The comps for the others could be considered a "rich mans" comparison.

[Evantime34]

I think Harden and George are great comps. Both were good college players, neither was thought of as a superstar prospect after their first year but both got better as they got older and became stars.

Now, we would be lucky if Smart became that good, but that type of effect on the game is possible with Smart.

[bdm860]

All-Star and many names on that list don't belong in the same sentence,

6/10 were allstars. The comps for the others could be considered a "rich mans" comparison.

I'll give $1,000,000 to the first person who can name all 6 All-Stars from that list.  Though I wouldn't argue against Jason Richardson being considered an All-Star caliber player.   

The list does seem odd in that there are only 3 1/2 PG's on the list (is Barbosa a SG or PG?), who are all pretty much good shooters and scorers, very few of which were known for defense.

[littleteapot]

If something like this really can be accurate, I would think it would need more data than 1 year.

Harden and George were both much more efficient players than Smart at a higher usage rate even early in their careers, and on the other side, Harden had a similar steal rate to Smart IMO for a completely different reason (Harden had very good defensive players playing with him and he could hide and roam whereas Smart got a lot of steals by making plays on his own).

[max215]

Definitely flawed, but a fun tool to play with. It's awesome to see the comps for Smart though.

[DarkAzcura]

If something like this really can be accurate, I would think it would need more data than 1 year.

Harden and George were both much more efficient players than Smart at a higher usage rate even early in their careers, and on the other side, Harden had a similar steal rate to Smart IMO for a completely different reason (Harden had very good defensive players playing with him and he could hide and roam whereas Smart got a lot of steals by making plays on his own).

Harden wasn't greatly efficient in his rookie year. He was pretty good, but he was terrible at finishing at the rim. Harden's efficiency in his rookie year was supported more by having Westbrook and Durant on the roster than anything. He was able to spot up and shoot a bunch of 3s, which up'd his efficiency. Any time he tried creating on his own, it usually ended up in failure (47% FG at the rim). Smart didn't really have that luxury his rookie year unfortunately.

Anywho, I've always touted Harden as a good comparison for Smart not because I think Smart can be an ultra 25 PPG player, but because I think they have similar offensive tendencies. Both have always ignored the mid-range game in favor of taking almost all of their shots at the rim or 3PT line. Both have a knack for drawing fouls and getting the ref to call whistles for them. Neither are incredibly explosive, and it took Harden a year to figure out how to finish at the rim and adjust to NBA length and speed after being crazy good at it in college (sounds familiar to me..the question is whether Smart can figure it out or not like Harden did). I don't think Smart will ever develop that kind of knack for scoring, but I do think he could learn a thing or two from watching some Harden tape considering they seem to be in similar athletic range with one another and have similar tendencies on offense.

[littleteapot]

So Harden is a good comp to Smart except for the part where Harden is one of the most dominant offensive players in the NBA? I guess I agree with that - not sure what the significance of that is though.

[sofutomygaha]

I hate to say it, but the only place where they profiled similarly in their rookie seasons was on defense. It's a fun coincidence that they have similar +/- numbers, but you can really only consider the comparison in that context!

[Evantime34]

So Harden is a good comp to Smart except for the part where Harden is one of the most dominant offensive players in the NBA? I guess I agree with that - not sure what the significance of that is though.

I think the comp is in terms of overall effect on the game rather than specific skillsets.

[Lucky17]

So Harden is a good comp to Smart except for the part where Harden is one of the most dominant offensive players in the NBA? I guess I agree with that - not sure what the significance of that is though.

I think the comp is in terms of overall effect on the game rather than specific skillsets.

Well, can a spectrum of comparators ranging from Paul George/James Harden to VladRad/Jordan Farmar really indicate anything we can hang our hat on?

How about we just accept that there's too little data so far to make any meaningful predictions about Smart's value as a player?

[Evantime34]

So Harden is a good comp to Smart except for the part where Harden is one of the most dominant offensive players in the NBA? I guess I agree with that - not sure what the significance of that is though.

I think the comp is in terms of overall effect on the game rather than specific skillsets.

Well, can a spectrum of comparators ranging from Paul George/James Harden to VladRad/Jordan Farmar really indicate anything we can hang our hat on?

How about we just accept that there's too little data so far to make any meaningful predictions about Smart's value as a player?

There is absolutely too little data, which means we can't confirm or immediately dismiss comparisons like this.

Comps like this make me happy so I don't dismiss them.