EDIT: nevermind.
very optimistic and I would love nothing better than for the team to exceed your expectations but I just don't see how it's based on anything more than blind faith more than anything approaching a realistic review of the team in comparison to the other teams in the conference (never mind the league in general).
I think the issue is how you are evaluating the team. You shouldn't be comparing the rosters throughout the East and coming to a conclusion that way, imo. You need to look at their actual performances. For example, Miami has all the talent in the world, but they could just as easily fall apart and not have the drive to win. They were barely skirting .500 with Wade and Bosh healthy earlier in the season. Why are we so confident they will actually perform honestly? Chicago lost the best defensive mind in the game, and they are by far a defensive team first. Will they recover from this? The Bucks added a big man who can't shoot to a team that is already void of 3PT shooting. Their offense might be even worse than last year, and they fell apart after trading Knight anyway. I don't see any reason in being so confidence that they will simply be ahead of the Celtics just because they were last season. The questions go on and on for almost any team. Through all the question marks about the Celtics talent, they went out there, didn't make excuses, and blew through teams over the last ~40 games. I got respect for a team that didn't fall apart in the face of adversity like the Heat, Bucks, Indiana, etc did throughout the season.
I think triboy is overly optimistic even if I agree with the general viewpoint, but I kinda scratch my head when more pessimistic posters make paper comparisons between rosters and act like there aren't a ton of questions about those teams. You ask for him to give a realistic viewpoint of the roster, and I don't see how he isn't doing that? Fact of the matter is the Celtics went out there, played their butts off, and went 24-12 which is close to half the season with the current roster. Their overall 40 win record is not what this team is, and using that as a frame of argument is a little disingenuous and ignores the circumstances this team played through throughout the season.
Anyway, a 24-12 record is a 55 win pace. Now if you are asking me if I think they can win 55 games over 82, I'd say hell no. But at the same time for the Celtics to fall out of the playoffs, you have to ask how will that happen? Well they have to drop from a 55 win pace to a mid 30 wins pace. Now forget about Miami, the Bucks, or whoever was in front of us or behind us. The question you should be asking is..is it reasonable for a team that was on a 55 win pace to drop back to the mid 30s with the same roster coming back but a year older with more experience? I think ignoring this factor and calling someone a homer or saying someone is not giving a realistic view of the roster is the person actually not looking at the roster realistically. It's completely unreasonable to expect this team to drop in 20 wins in terms of pace. It may happen because of unforeseen injuries or trades, but to expect it is just not reasonable. It's more reasonable to expect them to fall to a mid 40s win pace considering their point differential over the ~40 games, which isn't fighting for the playoffs. In the East, mid 40s is pretty much an automatic bid regardless of the viewpoint of other teams' rosters and their potential performance.
Some pts are dead on as to how I feel about all of this. Too pessimistic about the Celts and optimistic about other teams baffle me. Especially since the other teams have not made themsleves any much better in the off season.
Miami COULD be good. But is anyone willing to bet Bosh and Wade wont miss at least 25 games this season?? Winslow is just a rookie and will have his growing pains. Deng another injured guy.
- pacers get Ellis and so what?? Dallas was indifferent to keep him or let him go. Huge question mark surrounding George and ability to play at the same high level again
- bulls have to star new again with a diff coach. Rose is injured again
- Celts formed a strong bond last season(system is down pact), added a few real decent vets. We got IT for the whole season. Why be pessimistic while upsizing the rest ?
And yes we should win min 50. Good chance at 55
I don't think it's pessimism as much as it is trying to temper our expectations. I definitely want the Celtics to win 50 games, hell I want the Celtics to win banner 18, but I don't see it happening. Mainly because the east is better on paper than it was last season and one can definitely argue the Celtics run at the end of last season was aided by an easy schedule post all-star break and the Celtics competitors all crumbling by the seasons end. I like the way this team is constructed but its not a contender nor is it a pseudo-contender. All of your concerns with other teams you can bring the same to the Celtics. Smart can hurt his ankle again and limit his effectiveness. Sully could have yet another season decimated by injuries. Avery Bradley up until last season went out for an extended period. David Lee and Amir Johnson could be labeled as injury-risks. Point is, every team has those concerns. Every team. Someone brought this up earlier. If Lebron gets hurt, the east is up for grabs.
As for the other teams you mention, for the last time, Chris Bosh is NOT injury-prone. Last season was the only time Bosh was out for an extended period of time in his career, and even then, it wasn't for an injury. It was for blood clots in his lungs. That's not something caused from a basketball court. Winslow may be a rookie but a.They are not counting on him to be crucial and b.Danny tried to trade a good chunk of our picks to get him specifically. I find that odd that you praise our rookies and yet get on Winslows case for growing pains.
I'm also skeptical of the Pacers but Monta Ellis gives the Pacers that pure scorer that Paul George has never played with and should thrive playing next to George Hill. As for George, broken legs don't harm your career. Achilles and knee injuries can, but not compound leg fractures. George should be just fine.
The Bulls may have a new coach but atleast there's no turmoil between him and management unlike Thibs, which can really hurt a team. And even if Rose is out, he'll still be back by the start of the season and they still have quite a few quality pieces around him. Butler, Gasol, Noah, Mirotic.
I'm hoping the Celtics can capitalize on last years run, but the reason why I'm not thinking so big is because the roster on paper is deep with rotation players but has no elite players, as opposed to others teams in the east who I think do. I'm not saying that to get down on the Celtics. I actually love the route they are taking and they are definitely going in the right direction, but I just don't expect so much so soon.