Poll: WHO's better Lee or Sully

[sofutomygaha]

Lee, it is not as close as some here think.   Otherwise, Sully would not be playing off the bench as much as he did today.

It's the preseason! The starting lineup means nothing, and Sullinger came off the bench last because he showed up to shootaround with sauce on his chin.

[aingeforthree]

Stop it. Lee had a nice preseason game and Sullinger is fat. Lee is pleasing us and Sullinger is disappointing us. We're all on board with this, now keep a clear head for a second.

Lee is a great passer. Sullinger is a great passer who actually turns the ball over less than Lee does.

Lee is a good rebounder. Sullinger is his equal.

Lee is among the worst defenders in the league at his position, a distinction he carried even in his athletic prime. Sullinger is a passable defender, in all his rotundity.

Lee is a decent finisher and gets about 54% in the paint. Sullinger is his equal.

Lee is an ok midrange shooter. Sullinger is a good midrange shooter.

Lee never takes three pointers. Sullinger jacks them up all the time and oh my god I just hate his stupid face.

Neither one draws fouls.

Stop making me defend Sullinger. ARGH!! David Lee is not that good any more, and he was super flawed in his prime. David Lee is OK and can help us and that's wonderful. You are blinded by the fact that he is not Gerald Wallace and not fat!

You're completely wrong about well, almost everything on there.  One guy has proved you wrong time and time again with multiple all star appearances, while the other is still in development mode.  Lee is the far better player and it isn't really close.

[sofutomygaha]

Lee by far.
He's an all star type forward who scores, rebounds, and can pass

What on earth is an "all star type forward??" (a 4 who stacks up 20/10s playing 35 minutes a night?). Sullinger is on Lee's present day level with respect to the skills that you listed.

[PhoSita]

Stop it. Lee had a nice preseason game and Sullinger is fat. Lee is pleasing us and Sullinger is disappointing us. We're all on board with this, now keep a clear head for a second.

Lee is a great passer. Sullinger is a great passer who actually turns the ball over less than Lee does.

Lee is a good rebounder. Sullinger is his equal.

Lee is among the worst defenders in the league at his position, a distinction he carried even in his athletic prime. Sullinger is a passable defender, in all his rotundity.

Lee is a decent finisher and gets about 54% in the paint. Sullinger is his equal.

Lee is an ok midrange shooter. Sullinger is a good midrange shooter.

Lee never takes three pointers. Sullinger jacks them up all the time and oh my god I just hate his stupid face.

Neither one draws fouls.

Stop making me defend Sullinger. ARGH!! David Lee is not that good any more, and he was super flawed in his prime. David Lee is OK and can help us and that's wonderful. You are blinded by the fact that he is not Gerald Wallace and not fat!

I think most of the things you said here are true, but I do think that Lee is more mobile than Sullinger, and he has the edge mentally.

The most important thing here, though, is that Lee can realistically play 24-30 minutes with high energy, while Sullinger has never shown an ability to remain consistent over a whole game, playing that many minutes, over the course of the regular season.

One major difference you're glossing over here, though, is that Lee is a much more efficient offensive player.  Sullinger has hovered around 50% True Shooting for his career, while Lee has been around 55% the last handful of seasons, and 57.5% for his career. 

True, Sullinger has shown greater range, but he has not consistently been able to utilize that range, and Lee has been just as capable of helping an offense put points on the board regardless of his lack of range.


At the end of the day, I don't think either Lee or Sullinger is a quality starter at PF in today's league.  Lee is a better version of Kris Humphries at this point in time, and Sullinger is a significantly worse version of David West, albeit with an occasionally effective three point shot.

Whoever locks down the Celtics' starting spot at PF long term most likely isn't on the Celtics right now, and perhaps not even in the league.

Even this season, the best frontcourt combo for the Celts, given their other personnel, might end up being Amir and Zeller, or one of Amir and Zeller with Jerebko or Kelly.  Versatility, mobility, and defense combined with reliable floor spacing and relatively low usage rates.  These seem to be the qualities that Brad Stevens likes, and those qualities seem like they will mesh best with our current group of guards.

[sofutomygaha]

The most important thing here, though, is that Lee can realistically play 24-30 minutes with high energy, while Sullinger has never shown an ability to remain consistent over a whole game, playing that many minutes, over the course of the regular season.

This is a super fair point, assuming that Lee is not showing effects of his injuries or age.

One major difference you're glossing over here, though, is that Lee is a much more efficient offensive player.  Sullinger has hovered around 50% True Shooting for his career, while Lee has been around 55% the last handful of seasons, and 57.5% for his career. 

True, Sullinger has shown greater range, but he has not consistently been able to utilize that range, and Lee has been just as capable of helping an offense put points on the board regardless of his lack of range.

I didn't intend to gloss it over- I actually tried to attack it head on. Look, Jared Sullinger jacks threes and he sucks at it and we've been over this a million times and again my blood is boiling that I of all people am sitting here defending him. BUT If you look at his actual shooting percentages both in the paint and from midrange, though, he is superior at both when compared Lee's last few seasons.

If Brad Stevens says to him tomorrow, "Jared Sullinger, don't shoot any more three pointers, and also give me all of your takeout menus," Sullinger will not tell him about the emergency menus hidden under his mattress and behind the moose head. He will, however, immediately build a true shooting percentage that bests David Lee's.

[sofutomygaha]

You're completely wrong about well, almost everything on there.  One guy has proved you wrong time and time again with multiple all star appearances, while the other is still in development mode.  Lee is the far better player and it isn't really close.

That doesn't hold any water. Sullinger is a better player than lots of dudes who have been all stars! Roy Hibbert, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett. Heck, probably Deron Williams, Dirk, and Paul Pierce too. He can't touch what most of those guys once were, but that's not what we're talking about.

[D.o.s.]

Discounting Kobe -- who is going to be a fixture at All-Star games until he retires -- which NBA All Stars from last season would you say Sullinger is better than?

[sofutomygaha]

Discounting Kobe -- who is going to be a fixture at All-Star games until he retires -- which NBA All Stars from last season would you say Sullinger is better than?

Lee wasn't an all star last season or the season before. If you want to talk about active all stars, the list is certainly longer than that-- Gerald Wallace for sure. Harris, Kaman, Granger, Stoudemire for sure. Jameer Nelson, Mo Williams, yeah. Rajon Rondo, maybe? Luol Deng, maybe?

[PhoSita]

The most important thing here, though, is that Lee can realistically play 24-30 minutes with high energy, while Sullinger has never shown an ability to remain consistent over a whole game, playing that many minutes, over the course of the regular season.

This is a super fair point, assuming that Lee is not showing effects of his injuries or age.

One major difference you're glossing over here, though, is that Lee is a much more efficient offensive player.  Sullinger has hovered around 50% True Shooting for his career, while Lee has been around 55% the last handful of seasons, and 57.5% for his career. 

True, Sullinger has shown greater range, but he has not consistently been able to utilize that range, and Lee has been just as capable of helping an offense put points on the board regardless of his lack of range.

I didn't intend to gloss it over- I actually tried to attack it head on. Look, Jared Sullinger jacks threes and he sucks at it and we've been over this a million times and again my blood is boiling that I of all people am sitting here defending him. BUT If you look at his actual shooting percentages both in the paint and from midrange, though, he is superior at both when compared Lee's last few seasons.

If Brad Stevens says to him tomorrow, "Jared Sullinger, don't shoot any more three pointers, and also give me all of your takeout menus," Sullinger will not tell him about the emergency menus hidden under his mattress and behind the moose head. He will, however, immediately build a true shooting percentage that bests David Lee's.

Assumes Sully could maintain a high percentage if he were taking most of his shots inside, of course.

Also, in his rookie year Sully took 45% of his shots from within 3 feet, much higher than the 25-30% of his shots in that range the last two years, and his TS% was still only 53.4%.  I suppose that's because his field goal percentage from other ranges was pretty bad, with the exception of the rarely-utilized 10-16 foot range (only ~7% of his shots came from there).

For his career, nearly 50% of David Lee's shots have come from within 3 feet.  From that range, he's finished around two thirds of his shots.  Whereas Sully has shot about 62% from inside for his career.

David Lee's numbers from 3-10 and 10-16, while not great (38-42%) are also much better than Sullinger (36-38%).  The biggest difference is in the percentage from 16 feet to the three point line, which is a solid 44% for Sullinger and a lot lower than that over the last few years for David Lee.  Neither player takes more than 18% of their shots from that area, however.

From this you can kind of see why the coaching staff has pushed Sullinger to take threes.  In theory, if he could take that 44% from 16 feet to the 3pt line and turn that into a respectable shooting percentage on three pointers, he could be even more efficient than a paint-bound player like David Lee.  Sully's never been able to do that for more than a month or so at a time, though, as you well know.


Aside: I really love the shooting splits / breakdown on Basketball-Reference.com

[sofutomygaha]

The most important thing here, though, is that Lee can realistically play 24-30 minutes with high energy, while Sullinger has never shown an ability to remain consistent over a whole game, playing that many minutes, over the course of the regular season.

This is a super fair point, assuming that Lee is not showing effects of his injuries or age.

One major difference you're glossing over here, though, is that Lee is a much more efficient offensive player.  Sullinger has hovered around 50% True Shooting for his career, while Lee has been around 55% the last handful of seasons, and 57.5% for his career. 

True, Sullinger has shown greater range, but he has not consistently been able to utilize that range, and Lee has been just as capable of helping an offense put points on the board regardless of his lack of range.

I didn't intend to gloss it over- I actually tried to attack it head on. Look, Jared Sullinger jacks threes and he sucks at it and we've been over this a million times and again my blood is boiling that I of all people am sitting here defending him. BUT If you look at his actual shooting percentages both in the paint and from midrange, though, he is superior at both when compared Lee's last few seasons.

If Brad Stevens says to him tomorrow, "Jared Sullinger, don't shoot any more three pointers, and also give me all of your takeout menus," Sullinger will not tell him about the emergency menus hidden under his mattress and behind the moose head. He will, however, immediately build a true shooting percentage that bests David Lee's.

Assumes Sully could maintain a high percentage if he were taking most of his shots inside, of course.

Also, in his rookie year Sully took 45% of his shots from within 3 feet, much higher than the 25-30% of his shots in that range the last two years, and his TS% was still only 53.4%.  I suppose that's because his field goal percentage from other ranges was pretty bad, with the exception of the rarely-utilized 10-16 foot range (only ~7% of his shots came from there).

For his career, nearly 50% of David Lee's shots have come from within 3 feet.  From that range, he's finished around two thirds of his shots.  Whereas Sully has shot about 62% from inside for his career.

David Lee's numbers from 3-10 and 10-16, while not great (38-42%) are also much better than Sullinger (36-38%).  The biggest difference is in the percentage from 16 feet to the three point line, which is a solid 44% for Sullinger and a lot lower than that over the last few years for David Lee.  Neither player takes more than 18% of their shots from that area, however.

From this you can kind of see why the coaching staff has pushed Sullinger to take threes.  In theory, if he could take that 44% from 16 feet to the 3pt line and turn that into a respectable shooting percentage on three pointers, he could be even more efficient than a paint-bound player like David Lee.  Sully's never been able to do that for more than a month or so at a time, though, as you well know.


Aside: I really love the shooting splits / breakdown on Basketball-Reference.com

That was a great post, and I totally appreciate the case that you're making. I have a some differences in interpreting how these guys get their points, and since it involves even more deep diving into vorped shot charts and bball reference breakdowns, which we both love, let's definitely pick it back up.

First, though, two big ways to disagree about this

1. There are two schools of thought on what happens if Sullinger stops taking the three. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you are more sympathetic to the idea that he needs those 3-pt attempts in order to have what success he does have offensively closer in. You may be right that he can't hold up to the rigor of it, but I really prefer to put the on-court performance above the ability to stay on the court when I judge how "good" a player is. Sullinger-the-banger, who doesn't take threes, ought to profile more like his rookie season, but with some of the added interior efficiency he's demonstrated so far (because virtually all players improve upon their rookie year finishing ability).

2. Who is the David Lee that we have? I am not making the case that Sullinger is better than peak David Lee was... and Lee had a nice, long, consistent peak. Do you think his peak is over? Do you expect him to be the player this year that he was three years ago? Do you expect him to match his career averages? It's possible that he will rebound, but when I compare these players for this year, I expect a 2013-2015 version of David Lee.

TL;DR, our David Lee is 2013-2015 David Lee, which is not quite as effective on the court as the out of shape, improving-and-hopefully-less-three-taking/sucking Jared Sullinger.

[Celtics4ever]

which NBA All Stars from last season would you say Sullinger is better than

He is not top ten in any category not even rebounding.  Hard to get these all star claims when you consider that.

This was from last year, it is an interesting read.   In some ways his stock was higher last year than this year.

http://www.sonicsrising.com/2014/10/13/6970419/ranking-the-best-starting-power-forwards-in-the-nba-for-2014-15

it has Sully ranked 20th in PF, Lee 10th and Amir 18th.  Granted it is just guys in a forum but what we think here and what the rest of the nation thinks is a big difference.  I am more in line with this mindset wonder if it is because I live out of market.

[slamtheking]

I'd say Lee right now since he's shown he can be a productive player in the league for a number of years.  Hoping Sully can do that (provided he stays with the team)

[GC003332]

Will either of them be on the roster at the beginning of next season?
If I was a betting man I would bet against it.
So I vote Popeye Jones
I have little interest in players that Ainge will shuffle along in a never ending cycle.

[MBunge]

Discounting Kobe -- who is going to be a fixture at All-Star games until he retires -- which NBA All Stars from last season would you say Sullinger is better than?

I don't know about last year, but 22-year-old Sully was solidly better than 22-year-old Roy Hibbert.  Granted, Hibbert was a rookie at that age but developed into a max contract player.  If Sully in his prime, which is still 3 or 4 years away from starting, can become 70% of that?

Mike

[Greyman]

Agree with Lee though I still think Sully could be better than many think and he is worth hanging on to.