Author Topic: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up  (Read 10835 times)

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Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #60 on: October 06, 2015, 11:58:51 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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In the future I'll avoid loaded terms such as "average"
:P
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Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #61 on: October 06, 2015, 12:02:44 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  Is the theory that taking more shots lowers your fg%? Because the argument can go either way. Defenders might concentrate on you more outside the line, but there's also consistency from taking the shot more often.

If I understand D.o.s. correctly, the idea is that taking a lot of three pointers, generally speaking, indicates a greater capacity to take them.  Otherwise the player wouldn't get playing time.

Capacity in this case can mean a lot of things, including the consistency you mention.  It can also be a J.R. Smith kind of capacity, where the player is inconsistent, but when his shot is falling, it's REALLY falling, and he can nail a bunch in a row regardless of defensive pressure.  There are a lot of reasons why a coach might be willing to let a guy bomb from deep, but most of the time it'll have something to do with his ability to actually put the ball in the basket.

My point by bringing up Millsap versus Lowry is just that I think if you're going to judge how good a three point shooter somebody is, you have to consider the context, which includes a number of different factors.  Makes versus misses is an important as a raw measure of success in shooting, but it's not everything.


With Lowry specifically, I think his percentage would be higher if he weren't taking so many shots.  On the other hand, I think part of the reason he takes so many shots despite not always hitting a high percentage is that he often plays in lineups without many reliable three point shooters, so his team needs him to bomb from deep.  That may change this year if they play Carroll at PF a lot of the time.

The lack of other three point shooters on the floor is probably part of the reason Smart took so many deep shots last year, too.  The Celts had a good number of shooters, but Smart shared the floor much of the time with Turner, Bass, Zeller, Sullinger, and Crowder -- guys who were non-shooters from deep, or close to it.

   You seem to be saying, on a certain level, that pretty much every three point shooter is a good three point shooter because they shoot threes. That's accurate on some level, but it's similar to saying that centers who get more rebounds than the average nba player are good rebounders. It's somewhat accurate, yet somewhat lacking in context.

I think it would be fairly safe to say that while Lowry is one of the better three point shooters in the league without being one of the best -- a grade or two above being an 'ok' three point shooter. Largely semantic, I guess, but it seems to me that he stacks up well against the field but falls short when compared to the truly elite deep threats ala Kyle Korver et. al.

  So he's a better three point shooter than players who don't take a lot of them, but somewhat below average for players that do.

Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #62 on: October 06, 2015, 12:37:53 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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I don't typically equate being one of the worst of the best with being 'ok' or 'average' but this conversation has reached 'middling'.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #63 on: October 06, 2015, 12:47:57 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Yeah at this point I'm not even sure how we ended up on this track.
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Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #64 on: October 06, 2015, 01:28:04 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I don't typically equate being one of the worst of the best with being 'ok' or 'average' but this conversation has reached 'middling'.

  I just took it for granted that when we were evaluating three point shooters we were comparing them to other three point shooters. That would explain why we don't typically see threads about how Bass is an above average rebounder or Sully is a good shot blocker, both of which are probably true if you compare them to the league as a whole. Also, I expected to see something a little more exciting than "Lowry doesn't hit an overly high amount of his threes but he sure takes a lot of them" when you were chiding me for not doing enough research before I commented.'

Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #65 on: October 06, 2015, 01:36:05 PM »

Offline littleteapot

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I guess my original point is that the nba is not divided into shooters, freak athletes and bad offensive players. IMO Kyle Lowry is a player who can drive, dish and get all the way to the rim, but doesn't do it by forcing teams to respect his jump shot (a la Steph Curry) or being a freak athlete. I think Smart can turn into that.

I would personally love if Smart got to Lowry's deep shooting ability, but I think Lowry is not a good enough shooter that it can create his entire offensive game. It seems like the C's are too focused on developing Smarts shooting ability and I think that a - we have no idea if he'll ever get there and b - if he gets there he's probably not going to be a 40% shooter that forces players to go over picks and guard him tight the whole night. He'll probably become a player like Lowry who needs to be able to get in the lane even when teams go under the pick.
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Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #66 on: October 06, 2015, 01:39:19 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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I don't typically equate being one of the worst of the best with being 'ok' or 'average' but this conversation has reached 'middling'.

  I just took it for granted that when we were evaluating three point shooters we were comparing them to other three point shooters. That would explain why we don't typically see threads about how Bass is an above average rebounder or Sully is a good shot blocker, both of which are probably true if you compare them to the league as a whole. Also, I expected to see something a little more exciting than "Lowry doesn't hit an overly high amount of his threes but he sure takes a lot of them" when you were chiding me for not doing enough research before I commented.'

Yeah, that's fair. Yesterday was not a particularly adroit day for me (although I stand by my distinction).
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #67 on: October 06, 2015, 01:40:44 PM »

Offline CelticsFanFromNYC

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Quote
Frankly, Marcus Smart plays offense as if he's being defended by Marcus Smart.

This is perfect.

Agreed!!!

Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #68 on: October 06, 2015, 05:24:16 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I don't typically equate being one of the worst of the best with being 'ok' or 'average' but this conversation has reached 'middling'.

  I just took it for granted that when we were evaluating three point shooters we were comparing them to other three point shooters. That would explain why we don't typically see threads about how Bass is an above average rebounder or Sully is a good shot blocker, both of which are probably true if you compare them to the league as a whole. Also, I expected to see something a little more exciting than "Lowry doesn't hit an overly high amount of his threes but he sure takes a lot of them" when you were chiding me for not doing enough research before I commented.'

Yeah, that's fair. Yesterday was not a particularly adroit day for me (although I stand by my distinction).

  Sure. While I don't think that it's a great distinction, it's definitely a distinction.

Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #69 on: October 06, 2015, 06:40:07 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I don't typically equate being one of the worst of the best with being 'ok' or 'average' but this conversation has reached 'middling'.

  I just took it for granted that when we were evaluating three point shooters we were comparing them to other three point shooters. That would explain why we don't typically see threads about how Bass is an above average rebounder or Sully is a good shot blocker, both of which are probably true if you compare them to the league as a whole. Also, I expected to see something a little more exciting than "Lowry doesn't hit an overly high amount of his threes but he sure takes a lot of them" when you were chiding me for not doing enough research before I commented.'

Perhaps these numbers will prove more enlightening --

Going back to the comparison I made before between Kyle Lowry and Paul Millsap . . . .

According to Basketball-Reference, Kyle Lowry was assisted last year on 57.6% of his three point baskets.  That was significantly lower than the previous two years, when his three point percentage was better.

Kyle Lowry shot only 14.8% of his three pointers from the corner, and since the 2010-2011 season has taken between 9% and 15% of his three pointers from the corner.  His percentage on corner threes has never been much better than his overall three point percentage.  Between 30% and 45% of Lowry's attempts since he became a full time starter have been from deep.

Paul Millsap, by comparison, was assisted on 94.8% of his three point baskets last year, and for his career has been assisted on 95% of his three point baskets.  Between 20% and 25% of his three point attempts are from the corner, where he shoots a very good percentage -- 42.1% for his career.  For the last two years since becoming a regular three point shooter, about 20% of Millsap's attempts have been three pointers.


From all of that, you can tell that Millsap is probably a better spot up shooter from deep, especially from the corner, than Lowry.  But Lowry takes many more of them, and the degree of difficulty on those shots is higher.  While taking unassisted three pointers is typically a bad proposition -- and therefore a poor decision -- Lowry probably has to take a good number of those because his team has put relatively few quality spot-up shooters around him.


Now I don't know how without taking ages to do it, but if I did, I'd look up to see how Lowry compares to all players in the league with a similar percentage of unassisted, non-corner three pointers.  That might give a better sense of what kind of shooter he is.  Working in his percentages from the last couple of years to give a larger sample size would also help.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #70 on: October 06, 2015, 11:45:03 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I don't typically equate being one of the worst of the best with being 'ok' or 'average' but this conversation has reached 'middling'.

  I just took it for granted that when we were evaluating three point shooters we were comparing them to other three point shooters. That would explain why we don't typically see threads about how Bass is an above average rebounder or Sully is a good shot blocker, both of which are probably true if you compare them to the league as a whole. Also, I expected to see something a little more exciting than "Lowry doesn't hit an overly high amount of his threes but he sure takes a lot of them" when you were chiding me for not doing enough research before I commented.'

Perhaps these numbers will prove more enlightening --

Going back to the comparison I made before between Kyle Lowry and Paul Millsap . . . .

According to Basketball-Reference, Kyle Lowry was assisted last year on 57.6% of his three point baskets.  That was significantly lower than the previous two years, when his three point percentage was better.

Kyle Lowry shot only 14.8% of his three pointers from the corner, and since the 2010-2011 season has taken between 9% and 15% of his three pointers from the corner.  His percentage on corner threes has never been much better than his overall three point percentage.  Between 30% and 45% of Lowry's attempts since he became a full time starter have been from deep.

Paul Millsap, by comparison, was assisted on 94.8% of his three point baskets last year, and for his career has been assisted on 95% of his three point baskets.  Between 20% and 25% of his three point attempts are from the corner, where he shoots a very good percentage -- 42.1% for his career.  For the last two years since becoming a regular three point shooter, about 20% of Millsap's attempts have been three pointers.


From all of that, you can tell that Millsap is probably a better spot up shooter from deep, especially from the corner, than Lowry.  But Lowry takes many more of them, and the degree of difficulty on those shots is higher.  While taking unassisted three pointers is typically a bad proposition -- and therefore a poor decision -- Lowry probably has to take a good number of those because his team has put relatively few quality spot-up shooters around him.


Now I don't know how without taking ages to do it, but if I did, I'd look up to see how Lowry compares to all players in the league with a similar percentage of unassisted, non-corner three pointers.  That might give a better sense of what kind of shooter he is.  Working in his percentages from the last couple of years to give a larger sample size would also help.

  I'm still at the "he's a better three point shooter than players who don't take a lot of them, but somewhat below average for players that do" place I was earlier, but I'm willing to go towards "if I changed my criteria for good three point shooters, I'd likely rate Lowry higher".

Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #71 on: October 07, 2015, 01:50:01 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Ryan Anderson can't rebound, put the ball on the floor, or finish inside.  So saying Sully can become a poor man's version of that doesn't make much sense.

Sully can put the ball on the floor?  Tell me more! :P

While I think there is still room in the league for wings without reliable shooting range, I don't think Jae Crowder has the size or skill to get by without it.  He'll make it, or he won't, on the strength of his defense coupled with a credible three point shot from the corner.  That and constant hustle will allow him to have a career a la Matt Barnes.

This, I agree with.

Crowder is a nice player, but he's not an NBA caliber starter.  If he could shoot > 34% from three, then maybe he could be.

The knock on Smart's offense seems a little silly to me.  His Field Goal % was ugly, but his Effective Field Goal % was actually decent among rookie guards.

I agree with this, also.

Smart's decent Free Throw Rate combined with the fact that he took a lot of threes (and made a decent percentage of them) means his scoring efficiency was better than his raw FG% would suggest.

As for Turner, I've never been a big fan, but criticizing his conditioning seems odd to me.  I never got the sense that being winded was his problem.  He's just not especially strong or quick.  Being fit and being ripped are different things.

I agree with this too - this is getting uncanny!! haha

But yeah, Turner seems perfectly capable of playing 30+ minutes a game without a drop off in production so I don't believe conditioning is a big concern for him.  People have often criticised Paul Pierce's conditioning and also Carmelo Anthony's simply because neither guy looks like Andre Iguodala.  At the end of the day though, they have both been very productive in very many NBA minutes.

Honestly, I think Turner's problem is just mental.  He plays with a lot of passion and plays  with a lot of speed - he tends to work off instinct / impulse rather than stopping and thinking things over.  This is naturally only going to be exaggerated on transition situations, when you're specifically trying to outrun everybody else.

I think Turner's only real problem (regarding turnovers) is exactly that - he's a "shoot now, ask questions later" type of guy.  I somewhat excuse that because that is the type of play style that allows him to be effective.  He's a useful guy to have in stretches - I just think he takes too many risks to play starters minutes.

Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #72 on: October 07, 2015, 05:42:18 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I think Turner's only real problem (regarding turnovers) is exactly that - he's a "shoot now, ask questions later" type of guy.  I somewhat excuse that because that is the type of play style that allows him to be effective.  He's a useful guy to have in stretches - I just think he takes too many risks to play starters minutes.

Agreed.  I think Turner still plays with the mentality of a star prospect.  You're willing to accept high turnovers from a guy you think might turn into Brandon Roy, but when it becomes clear that he's never going to be able to finish inside, get to the line, or shoot from deep well enough to justify such a high usage rate, the turnovers are harder to swallow.  That's not to say that Turner is selfish.  Far from it.  His assist rate last season was on par with many primary playmakers; he's a wing in box score terms only.  When you judge him by that metric, as a big point guard, he falls short of a lot of other guys in the league. 

I think Turner has a role to play on a good team, but for me it's backup point guard.  He's a less controlled, more offensively gifted version of Sean Livingston.  He served a purpose for the team last year, but hopefully he won't be nearly as needed this year.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Atlantic division analytics profiles are up
« Reply #73 on: October 07, 2015, 06:27:08 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Interesting that Hab attributes a significant part of Turner's problems with the ball to being out shape
Quote
Only DeMarcus Cousins had a higher turnover rate in transition than Turner, who coughed up the ball on 23 percent of his plays in the open court, per Synergy Sports. Like Cousins, Turner is a doughy talent who tries to do too much to cover up for his lack of conditioning.

If Evan Turner is 'doughy' I would love to know what Haberstroh thinks of himself.