Atlantic division analytics profiles are up

[sofutomygaha]

A little pleasure that I look forward to every year!

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2015/insider/story/_/id/13432031/boston-celtics-player-profiles

Y'all who don't subscribe, I don't want to plagiarize the whole thing but I'm sure we can post some snippets.

Super harsh on Marcus Smart's offense...

Frankly, Marcus Smart plays offense as if he's being defended by Marcus Smart.

Surprising thesis on Jae Crowder-- does every non-ball-dominant wing in the NBA need to be a 3-and-D now?

Crowder has potential as a 3-and-D guy, but his shot needs to get sharper.

Approving of Amir Johnson. I'm not so much expecting him to shoot more 3s, but we'll see I guess

He'll be a perfect fit in Stevens' system that demands shooting from its bigs. Though Johnson is known for his athleticism, screen-setting and rim-running, he made 19 of his 46 3s last season and should see more green lights next season.

This is the strangest thing I've ever seen written about Isaiah Thomas

Mini Russell Westbrook with parking-lot range

Extremely weird bottom-line take on Jared Sullinger. At this point, Tom Haberstroh is irrationally fixated on the three pointer.

If he loses weight and sharpens his jumper, he can have a future as a Ryan Anderson lite.

High praise for Zeller. No soundbite to share, but points out that Zeller was perhaps a top-5 mid range shooter last year.

Interesting that Hab attributes a significant part of Turner's problems with the ball to being out shape

Only DeMarcus Cousins had a higher turnover rate in transition than Turner, who coughed up the ball on 23 percent of his plays in the open court, per Synergy Sports. Like Cousins, Turner is a doughy talent who tries to do too much to cover up for his lack of conditioning.

He's on team Olynyk-- box score "doesn't do him justice."

James Young-- copy and paste on 2014. Why dig in where there are puns to be made?

Young is young, so that's good.

Thinks Mickey will spend the year in the D-league.

[kozlodoev]

At this point, Tom Haberstroh is irrationally fixated on the three pointer.

That's because the entire Celtics team has been irrationally fixated on the three pointer. Sullinger and Crowder have no business taking close to 6 threes per game between the two of them. Everyone but Coach S seems to have this figured out already.

[TheFlex]

If Sullinger loses weight AND becomes a better shooter, he's only Ryan Anderson lite?! He's better than Anderson now at 300 lbs. with a mediocre jumper.

Smart is a stronger offensive talent than given credit for. Just another hot take from ESPN, ignoring his ankle injury, lack of touches on offense and unrealistic expectations. Just because the media told us Smart was "NBA-ready," we shouldn't be expecting 12-15 ppg from a 20 year old rookie.

ESPN is garbage.

[kozlodoev]

If Sullinger loses weight AND becomes a better shooter, he's only Ryan Anderson lite?! He's better than Anderson now at 300 lbs. with a mediocre jumper.

Um, no, he isn't. Unless of course you mean the injury-diminished version of RA from last year. And even then, Sullinger is pretty much comparable and not necessarily better.

[fairweatherfan]

At this point, Tom Haberstroh is irrationally fixated on the three pointer.

That's because the entire Celtics team has been irrationally fixated on the three pointer. Sullinger and Crowder have no business taking close to 6 threes per game between the two of them. Everyone but Coach S seems to have this figured out already.

That's because the entire league is collectively fixated on the 3 pointer.  The reason why is that analytics consistently shows the ability to make the 3 is the single biggest offensive predictor of team success (yeah, yeah, other than outscoring the other team). 

Whether it's appropriate to try and one-size-fits-all it to every player that could conceivably make the shot is an important question, but the data overwhelmingly support the idea that a player's value goes up considerably when he can consistently make the 3.

[moiso]

If Sullinger loses weight AND becomes a better shooter, he's only Ryan Anderson lite?! He's better than Anderson now at 300 lbs. with a mediocre jumper.

Um, no, he isn't. Unless of course you mean the injury-diminished version of RA from last year. And even then, Sullinger is pretty much comparable and not necessarily better.

Agreed.  I'd love it if Sullinger were as good as Anderson.

[D.o.s.]

Frankly, Marcus Smart plays offense as if he's being defended by Marcus Smart.

This is perfect.

[PhoSita]

Ryan Anderson can't rebound, put the ball on the floor, or finish inside.  So saying Sully can become a poor man's version of that doesn't make much sense.  If Sully lost weight and stayed healthy, he'd be more like a poor man's David West, or Luis Scola with 3 point range.


While I think there is still room in the league for wings without reliable shooting range, I don't think Jae Crowder has the size or skill to get by without it.  He'll make it, or he won't, on the strength of his defense coupled with a credible three point shot from the corner.  That and constant hustle will allow him to have a career a la Matt Barnes.  Otherwise, he's a better version of Renaldo Balkman.


The knock on Smart's offense seems a little silly to me.  His Field Goal % was ugly, but his Effective Field Goal % was actually decent among rookie guards.

If you compare his stats to other first year players over the last few decades, he compares fairly well.  Some of the names that pop up (less than 40% FG, 3 or more assists, 3 or more rebounds, 1.5 or more steals, 1 or more 3 pointers made):

Kyle Lowry
Ricky Rubio
Jason Kidd
Jason Williams
Ray Felton
Jamaal Tinsley
Bobby Jackson
Jim Jackson

Most of those guys are pretty solid offensive players, with Rubio the major exception.   In terms of overall career, they range from solid starters / quality backups to Hall of Fame floor general.

I'm not terribly concerned about Marcus Smart's offensive abilities based on his rookie season.  I don't expect him to ever be dominant on that end, but I think he'll be an asset, and we know he'll never shy away from taking big shots.  The biggest thing for me is that he showed he can hit the three pointer, and history suggests that like most players he will only improve over time from range.  (Here's a list of other guys who took a similar number of three pointers in their first year)


As for Turner, I've never been a big fan, but criticizing his conditioning seems odd to me.  I never got the sense that being winded was his problem.  He's just not especially strong or quick.  Being fit and being ripped are different things.

[droopdog7]

Frankly, Marcus Smart plays offense as if he's being defended by Marcus Smart.

This is perfect.

And true.

[sofutomygaha]

Ryan Anderson, at his peak, was an outstanding rebounder and three point shooter. Sullinger is a very good rebounder. It doesn't seem to me like Sullinger's fitness has much to do with his inability to be Ryan Anderson. Boil it down, and what you're really saying is  "If Sullinger could shoot the three, he'd have three point range."

Which is really dumb, obviously.

But it's not quite as dumb as the Crowder thing, which is that if Jae Crowder were a better defender and three point shooter, he'd be a good 3-and-D player. That's like saying if your cat learned to bark and chase a frisbee, he'd be a dog.

[coffee425]

Frankly, Marcus Smart plays offense as if he's being defended by Marcus Smart.

This is perfect.

And true.

Glass half full? 8points on Marcus Smart defense ain't too shabby

[kozlodoev]

At this point, Tom Haberstroh is irrationally fixated on the three pointer.

That's because the entire Celtics team has been irrationally fixated on the three pointer. Sullinger and Crowder have no business taking close to 6 threes per game between the two of them. Everyone but Coach S seems to have this figured out already.

That's because the entire league is collectively fixated on the 3 pointer.  The reason why is that analytics consistently shows the ability to make the 3 is the single biggest offensive predictor of team success (yeah, yeah, other than outscoring the other team). 

Whether it's appropriate to try and one-size-fits-all it to every player that could conceivably make the shot is an important question, but the data overwhelmingly support the idea that a player's value goes up considerably when he can consistently make the 3.

I have no doubt that strong three-point shooting is a weapon. On the other hand, asking (or allowing, same thing really) two sub-300 shooters to take such a massive amount of three pointers is simply bad coaching.

[sofutomygaha]

Frankly, Marcus Smart plays offense as if he's being defended by Marcus Smart.

This is perfect.

And true.

It is both true and cute as hell, but what I take home is that Smart gets evaluated as though he were a veteran. In the profiles, Haberstroh makes comparisons between players and peer groups. The peer group Haberstroh chooses for Smart is starting point guards, not rookies or rookie guards. I think that's a good sign.

[PhoSita]

Ryan Anderson, at his peak, was an outstanding rebounder and three point shooter.

At this peak, RyNo averaged 9 rebounds per-36.  Not what I would call outstanding, though it's not terrible.  For his career, he's averaged 7.8 rebounds per-36, which is a shade or two above terrible for a big man.

He's been a much better shooter than Sullinger will likely ever be, though.


As for Crowder, I think the 3-and-D thing is a recognition that he doesn't stand out in any particular way except that he's a solid defender, he's strong, and he hustles as much as anybody in the league.  He brings toughness and leadership to the floor.  All of those things are good.  But if he wants to stick around in the league, he'll have to be able to get by on offense, and these days that means, at a minimum, being able to hit the corner three at a high rate.

[D.o.s.]

Frankly, Marcus Smart plays offense as if he's being defended by Marcus Smart.

This is perfect.

And true.

It is both true and cute as hell, but what I take home is that Smart gets evaluated as though he were a veteran. In the profiles, Haberstroh makes comparisons between players and peer groups. The peer group Haberstroh chooses for Smart is starting point guards, not rookies or rookie guards. I think that's a good sign.

It's a nice bit of reinforcement -- I think most of us have (correctly) pegged Smart as the young player with the most potential to become a legitimately Good Player, so it would make sense to weigh him against similarly capitalized folks.